Tag: final score predictions

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 2 matchup in Ford Field

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season, yet it still feels very much like summer around the upper Midwest. As I sit with my Sunday morning coffee just before 7 a.m., it’s already 62 degrees on the way to near 90.

The unseasonably hot weather reminds many folks around Michigan of Florida. That’s a fitting sentiment as the Detroit Lions welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Ford Field later this afternoon. The fans packing the rafters in the home of the Lions will not give the visitors from Florida a warm welcome as the two teams renew a rekindling rivalry.

Detroit beat the Bucs in the NFC Divisional Round, 31-23. Both teams are gunning to go 2-0 and maintain their supremacy in their respective NFC divisions. It’s a big game for the early season.

Why I think the Lions will win

It’s normally considered trite to lead with injuries to the opponent, but the loss of safety Antoine Winfield Jr. in the middle of the Buccaneers defense cannot be overstated. He’s their best player and Winfield plays a position that is hypercritical to stopping Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta from exploiting the middle of the field in the passing game.

Pair that with injuries at outside cornerback, where the Bucs will be quite shorthanded even if Zyon McCollum is cleared from his brain injury to play. Tampa’s secondary might remind some Lions fans of Detroit’s own inadequate patchwork in the early Dan Campbell years. Tyrek Funderburk and Tavierre Thomas each playing significant roles against a Lions passing attack that is looking to bounce back from a subpar overall Week 1 is a recipe for Goff and St. Brown to get right quickly.

I also like the scheduling quirk. After playing the Rams last week, the Lions draw a Bucs team with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. He’s a progeny of the Sean McVay/Rams offensive system. A familiar system, one the Lions played against just last week.

Tampa Bay is very talented, no doubt about it. But the basic scheme and style of play the Bucs bring isn’t much different from what the Lions played in Week 1. No radical changes of approach, no real divergent attack. Both offenses are based on having two very skilled primary outside wide receivers, a quarterback who makes quick, good decisions, and a run game that is meant to be a good complementary weapon, not a feature. Game prep for Aaron Glenn and the Lions defense was fairly easy this week.

Contrast that with Tampa Bay. Last week the Bucs played Washington, a team led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels operating Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Daniels was a bigger threat with his legs, taking off 16 times out of the pocket and almost topping 100 yards on the ground. He only threw for 184. Washington’s leading receiver amongst wide receivers was rookie Luke McCaffrey, who caught three passes for 18 yards.

Now they’ve got to play Goff, St. Brown, LaPorta, Week 1 star Jameson Williams and an offensive line that shines in pass protection. That’s not even bringing the lethal power ground game of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs into the equation. Tampa Bay is a very well-coached defense between head coach Todd Bowles and co-DCs in Kacy Rogers and Larry Foote, but having to uproot everything they did in Week 1 to prep for Week 2, and doing it without several key pieces, yeah–that’s a very difficult assignment.

What worries me about the Bucs

Let’s go back to the Bucs offense. Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and he looked very sharp last Sunday. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are as good of a 1-2 wideout tandem as the Lions will see all year, and that includes Kupp and Nacua. It’s great that Lions CB Carlton Davis has years of experience practicing against those guys, but there’s only so much that can help.

The Lions pass rush has to impact Mayfield. He’s more mobile than Matthew Stafford last week, but he’s also prone to lapses of judgment when he’s pressured. Losing Marcus Davenport is a rough break for the Lions, and someone else must step up to help Aidan Hutchinson, who draws perhaps his toughest assignment of the year in Tristan Wirfs. Mayfield, with those receivers, with a more promising run game that the Bucs showed in Week 1, that’s an offense that can win this game.

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The middle-of-the-field defense in Tampa Bay is designed to stuff the run. Nose Vita Vea is one of the best at it, and LB Lavonte David is still great. Even without Winfield, David and his fellow LBs are swift and savvy in the middle of the field and can complicate the intermediate passing game like the Rams did so effectively against the Lions in Week 1.

Final thought and score prediction

During the week, I predicted the Lions to win 31-25. I still like that basic margin of victory, but I do see how the score could wind up being a little lower–even with the defensive injuries on both teams.

Lions 27, Buccaneers 21

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for NFL Week 1

The Sunday morning coffee is a little more vibrant this morning. There’s a welcome chill in the air as summer fades.

It’s Detroit Lions season!

This year promises to be a special one for Lions fans. Dan Campbell’s team is coming off the most successful season of the Super Bowl era, coming within a whisker of the team’s first NFC Championship and Super Bowl appearance.

As the team readies tonight’s opener against the Los Angeles Rams, it’s a more complete roster than the one that beat these Rams for the first-ever playoff win in Ford Field back in January. It’s a team that can win any game against any opponent, anywhere–postseason included. That quest starts tonight in Ford Field in front of what will certainly be a raucous crowd of partisans chanting “Ja-Red Goff” and ready to explode when the Lions take the field.

The first game is always a tough one to break down ahead of time. Teams have changed. These two teams, the Lions and Rams, have changed quite a bit on defense. We’ve also not seen one projected starter from either unit play a single snap in the preseason, adding to the mystery.

Why I think the Lions will win

On paper anyway, this is a game the Lions should win. The Rams have a plethora of new and unproven pieces all over their defense. They just lost their projected top cornerback, Darious Williams, to I.R. They traded away starting linebacker Ernest Jones, a move that was widely unpopular amongst Rams fans and, reportedly, inside the locker room.

Specifically, the lack of coordinated experience and cohesion in the back seven is a very bad matchup for the Rams against Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery; whew, the Lions have some great offensive weaponry. The Rams couldn’t match that when they had Aaron Donald and a more seasoned secondary. Now they’ve got neither.

Detroit’s own defense should be much improved. The overhauled secondary is better equipped to handle the Rams explosive passing attack. The increased physicality that Carlton Davis brings, the increased athleticism Terrion Arnold brings, the increased disruptiveness Amik Robertson offers in the slot, the increased range and deep coverage instincts Brian Branch offers playing full-time safety, it’s all better than it was a year ago.

The Rams remain a very dynamic offense, but they haven’t seen what this Lions unit can do–quite literally; Detroit sitting the starters and playing a relatively vanilla defensive scheme in the preseason means coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit can present new wrinkles and challenges the Rams don’t even expect to see.

I think the addition of Marcus Davenport as the starting EDGE opposite Aidan Hutchinson deserves more attention. Davenport is straight out of central casting for what Glenn, Campbell and the Lions want playing across from No. 97. Most importantly, he’s healthy. The Rams will be playing without regular starting LT Alaric Jackson, too. Davenport can have a big impact on his new team right away.

What worries me about the Rams

Any team with a veteran quarterback of Matthew Stafford’s accomplishment, with one of the best receiving corps in the league, should never be overlooked. They’re thin up front, but they’re good. These Rams are one of the few offenses that can reasonably expect to match Detroit blow-for-blow.

They lost Aaron Donald on defense, and he cannot be replaced. However, the Rams smartly opted for a different strategy. L.A. has quite a few impressive young talents all along the defensive front. Kobie Turner probably should have been the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, and I don’t think he was just a product of playing next to Donald. Jared Verse and especially Braden Fiske were very popular Lions draft projections last spring, and for good reason. Don’t sleep on them against a Lions offensive line with a new guard tandem, one of which–right guard Kevin Zeitler–spent more time injured than playing this summer. Graham Glasgow wasn’t exactly looking comfortable in moving to left guard either.

I’m not too concerned about the concept of last year’s left guard, Jonah Jackson, selling out his old team. Jackson has enough to worry about in playing center against Alim McNeill, whom he couldn’t handle in practices when playing his more natural spot at guard. Ben Johnson’s creativity won’t be stifled. I do, however, worry a bit about Johnson trying to show how smart he is rather than trying to win the game, an issue that hurt the Lions at times last year.

It’s hard to know what to expect from the Lions (or Rams) special teams. I’m simultaneously excited to see what Jake Bates can do as a kicker and also terrified at his complete lack of experience and rather uninspiring summer. The Rams kicker, rookie Joshua Karty, is also an unknown in the NFL, but I watched Karty nail game-winners in college in high-pressure situations. The last time Bates had a critical attempt in a meaningful game, he missed. Twice.

Final score prediction

I expect the Rams potent offense will be able to score some points on a talented, new-look Lions defense that hasn’t played together in meaningful action just yet. I expect the Lions offense will be able to score more than that against an inexperienced, lesser-talented Los Angeles defense.

Lions 33, Rams 24

Lions vs. 49ers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. 49ers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the NFC Championship game

We’ve made it to the NFC Championship game! For just the second time in the Super Bowl era, the Detroit Lions are playing with a Super Bowl appearance on the line.

Sunday night’s game against the top-seeded 49ers in San Francisco figures to be a great one. As I anxiously mull about on Saturday night before an early-morning trip to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, here’s what I’m thinking about the matchup between the Lions and 49ers and how the game might play out.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • Jared Goff is playing some seriously inspired football. His confidence and mastery of the Lions offense is exemplary, and Goff’s play has risen when the stakes have gotten higher. He’s got big-game experience from his Rams days, and he won’t be fazed by playing a team he’s seen many times over the years.
  • The 49ers defensive front is designed to get pressure on the QB, not stop the run. Not that Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, et al, aren’t capable against the run, but it’s not their forte. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have both been among the NFL leaders in yardage on first-down carries and red zone success rate. Moreover, the Niners aren’t used to a team sticking to the run even when San Francisco holds a lead. Detroit won’t abandon it and that can be very effective.
  • The Lions played a stylistically similar type of opponent last week, notably on defense. Tampa Bay and San Francisco do a lot of the same things defensively from the same base formations. The Lions won’t have to adjust the game plan of attack to accommodate a divergent style of defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense faced the Packers, who do a lot more deep throwing and quarterback movement than Detroit does. They’ll need to do more to adapt to the more diverse weaponry, power/gap run scheme and superior offensive line the Lions are bringing to the table.
  • Aidan Hutchinson is riding a heater, and he will primarily match up against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz. That’s the weakest right tackle in pass protection he’s faced in weeks. With Brock Purdy vulnerable to making mistakes under pressure, if Hutchinson stays hot, the Lions pass defense could get chances to make plays. They’ve been better at making those than the Packers defense that couldn’t corral Purdy’s mistakes last week.
  • Dan Campbell told his team in the locker room after last week’s win (paraphrasing here) that they’re too young to know they’re not supposed to keep winning. There’s no pressure on them. For the 49ers, there is considerable pressure to not lose the NFC Championship game for the third year in a row. Campbell knows how to coach that plucky underdog type of team, whereas I don’t trust Kyle Shanahan to wear the front-runner hat all that comfortably.

What worries me about the 49ers

  • They’re the No. 1 seed because they’re a very well-rounded team. Top five scoring offense. Top five scoring defense. They don’t need one unit to thrive to win. Detroit doesn’t need that either, but the 49ers have more margin for error built in.
  • Brock Purdy throws the most accurate deep ball (over 20 air yards) in the league, completing 70 percent of his deep downfield passes per SIS. He pulls that off in part because he’s got several targets who can get open deep, from Brandon Aiyuk to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle to Jauan Jennings. The Lions pass defense is infamously terrible at covering the deeper throws against inferior quarterbacks to Purdy with fewer quality options.
  • The injury situation on the Lions offensive line could be a lot worse, but it’s still suboptimal to face the 49ers rush without starting left guard Jonah Jackson and with Frank Ragnow nursing injuries to more body parts than a trainer learns exist on the first day of med school. As good as Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the run game are all playing, it all functions because the offensive line is great. Kayode Awosika was rough in pass protection in relief of Jackson last week, and there is zero depth behind anyone else. There could be some negative blocking impact from losing TE Brock Wright, too.
  • The fact I made it this far in talking about how good the 49ers are and didn’t even mention Christian McCaffrey, the NFL’s best all-around running back, is telling. Detroit’s decline in tackling of late must end, or else McCaffrey will prove why he deserves more MVP consideration.

Final score prediction

I think the 7-point line favoring the 49ers is way too high. I think the Lions would win about 46 of 100 matchups between these two current teams in San Francisco. Here’s hoping it’s one of the 46! But I can’t in good faith pick against the NFC’s top team at home with how good they are on both sides of the ball. 49ers 32, Lions 28.

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the wild card playoff game in Ford Field

It’s been a long time since the morning coffee went down on a day with a Detroit Lions playoff game. Too long.

The question for this snowy Sunday is, will there be another Lions playoff game next weekend?

It’s not going to be easy, but these Lions have a strong chance to keep the postseason run rolling.

 

Why I think the Lions will win

  • The Jared Goff revenge factor is real. His divorce from Rams coach Sean McVay and Los Angeles is well-documented, but one facet that doesn’t get enough oxygen: how badly Goff’s teammates want to help the Lions QB prove himself and get his vengeance. Think “Jim Schwartz being carried off in victory in his first trip back to Ford Field” type of desire by the Lions to deliver their leader some validation.
  • The Rams don’t defend the middle of the field in the passing game all that well. Guess where the Lions passing game thrives. With top Rams safety Jordan Fuller banged up and questionable, it creates an even bigger advantage for All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta, who I do think plays in this one.
  • Special teams are a massive advantage for Detroit, including kicker Michael Badgley. Yes, folks, the Rams special teams are indeed that kind of bad. I even pegged the Lions defense and special teams to get the first score of the game as this week’s best bet. Dave Fipp’s creativity with fakes factors in here, too.
  • The Lions run defense against opposing RBs is fantastic. Even in Week 18, where the Detroit defense’s tackling was awful, they still did a decent job in limiting the ground game. Rams RB Kyren Williams is a good one, a worthy Pro Bowler. The Lions LBs and safeties have been very good all season in run defense, too. This is one area where the Lions’ EDGEs have a nice advantage against the Rams’ OTs and TEs, where only RT Rob Havenstein is even league-average at run blocking. Hutchinson has a big advantage in the pass rush against Havenstein, who doesn’t move well laterally, too.
  • For all the hullabaloo about Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit for a playoff game, Stafford’s own history in playoff games is a mixed bag. His career INT rate and sack rate are higher in the playoffs than the regular season. That’s true for most QBs; playoff games mean facing better opponents. But we’ve all seen Stafford have some bonehead plays and inexplicable misses in big games. There’s more than a little pressure on him to perform big in his return to Detroit, too.
  • The Rams won just one game against another team in the playoffs until last week, when they beat a 49ers team resting key offensive players. The first win over a playoff team came in Week 13 against a Cleveland Browns team starting its 4th-string QB, their No. 4 and No. 5 OTs, and no Myles Garrett. The Rams are good, but they’re far from battle-tested in 2023.

What worries me about the Rams

  • The DT duo of Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner is the best in the league in 2023. Donald didn’t have his best year but is still the preeminent interior pass rusher in the NFL. Turner quietly but emphatically outplayed the more celebrated Jalen Carter amongst rookie DTs, especially after the first month of the season. Even with the Lions strong OL, they’re a problem.
  • The Rams have a dangerous duo at WR in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Lions would struggle to cover either one of those on their own, but together they create a huge advantage for the Rams offense. If the Lions safeties aren’t sharp in coverage rotations and assignments, it’s not going to be pretty. The Detroit outside CBs simply cannot handle the combination on their own, and the Rams do a good job with formations and motion to set up favorable matchups, too.
  • This is more about the Lions, but I have some concern that OC Ben Johnson will do what he did in Dallas — trying to show how smart and creative he is instead of actually attacking the defense. Like Dallas, the Rams defense is predicated on speed, penetration and flow. They’re vulnerable to offenses that can punch them in the mouth. Johnson only threw a few jabs in Dallas and it wasn’t nearly enough. Has he learned his lesson?

Final score prediction

The Lions have more paths to victory than the visiting Rams, and I think they find just enough trails to win. Lions 30, Rams 27.

Lions vs. Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 18 matchup in Ford Field

We’ve reached the final game of the regular season. For the first time in too long, it won’t mean the end of the Detroit Lions’ season.

The Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18. It’s the Vikings team they beat in Minnesota two weeks ago to clinch the NFC North title and a home playoff game next weekend. That makes the Sunday morning coffee in no need of any sweetener.

This is a weird game, what with the Vikings still (barely) alive for a wild card spot and the Lions with very little to play for other than pride. This is one for folks to bet on at extreme peril.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • Controlled fury finally gets a chance to be unleashed on an opponent. The officiating slight at the end of the Week 17 loss to the Cowboys is a chip for the Lions to play. That’s a powerful force, the mentality of looking to avenge being wronged.
  • The Vikings are really banged up. No T.J. Hockenson, who was injured in the meeting two weeks ago. A hobbled offensive line that could be down three regular starters. Aside from the attrition, it fosters a lack of chemistry and communication. Switching quarterbacks once again doesn’t help the cohesion for Minnesota, regardless of how they might feel about Nick Mullens.
  • The Vikings couldn’t defend the middle of the field in the last meeting. Nothing in Brian Flores’ defensive style indicates that they’ll change things up dramatically to make Jared Goff work more outside. Flores is all about pressure and confusion. The Lions and Goff handle that better than most teams do.
  • There is still a chance for the No. 2 seed and the potential of another guaranteed home playoff game if they win next weekend. Dan Campbell has indicated the starters will play, too.

What worries me about the Vikings

  • Mullens isn’t shy about attacking over the top of the defense. He threw for over 400 yards in the Week 16 meeting and could do so again. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn, he’s got three wideouts who can all win deep. The Lions have massive issues defending passing offenses with only one deep threat.
  • I worry about the Lions coaching staff scheming this game more like a preseason game in order to not show anything for the postseason games. I don’t consider that a bad thing, either; the goal is to win next weekend and get there without losing any players to injury. If that means trying long field goals instead of going for it on 4th-and-3 from the 33-yard line, or shelving the tricky offensive plays and complex blitzes on defense, so be it. Because the coaching staff has never bene here before, it’s an unknown variable.
  • The Vikings do still have something to play for, albeit an extremely long shot to make the playoffs. They also have the potential to avoid finishing outright last place in the NFC North a year after winning the division. With a coaching staff that is expected to return and most of the key players coming back, that could mean something more than the typical “playing for next year” squad.

Final score prediction

I don’t have a good feel for how this one plays out, in part because it’s hard to know how long the Lions play their starters. If the Lions really want to win this game, they will. Nothing in Dan Campbell’s competitive mentality suggests otherwise, but sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Lions 24, Vikings 22.

Lions vs. Cowboys: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Cowboys: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for Saturday night’s edition of Monday Night Football

The Detroit Lions playing on Monday Night Football in the NFL’s penultimate weekend is pretty special, even though the MNF game will be played on Saturday night. It’s that oddity that swirls around the morning coffee mug as I anxiously await watching the NFC North champions play a de facto playoff game.

Or will it be a playoff game feel for Detroit? It certainly will for Dallas, what with the Cowboys playing for the NFC East title and the home playoff game(s) that comes with that. For the Lions? Detroit already wrapped up at least the No. 3 seed. The No. 2 and perhaps even No. 1 seed are still within reach, and that should be powerful enough motivation for Dan Campbell and his Lions players.

 

Why I think the Lions will win

  • The running game. It’s not just the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, arguably the NFL’s best 1-2 punch at running back. It’s also not just Detroit’s intact offensive line, the top run-blocking unit (per PFF) in the league. It’s also the Cowboys being a defensive front that is designed to rush the passer and only rush the passer. They’re really freaking good at rushing the passer. Against the run? Dallas allows 4.98 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, 31st in the NFL. In the last five games, that figure balloons to 5.8. As long as Ben Johnson remembers to run, the Lions should thrive at it.
  • The run game, part two. Dallas is a league-average run offense. They’re 12th in yards per game and 15th in yards per carry. Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle aren’t a bad combo. But they’re not exceptional, and their offensive line hasn’t been up to typical Cowboys standards either. When Dallas has to run the ball, it’s not something they can reliably do. That’s especially true in the red zone, where the Cowboys are the NFL’s worst team at scoring touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line.
  • The Cowboys defense loves to take advantage of careless ball security and panicky quarterbacks to create takeaways. For most of the season, Jared Goff has been smart about avoiding calamitous plays like that. The Lions are tied for 20th in total fumbles, so it’s not a major issue for the offense, either.
  • For the first time in a long while, the Lions are the hunters in this game. The switch back to predator from being the prey should serve Campbell and the Lions well. The Cowboys don’t exactly have a recent history of handling the “big game” pressure all that well, either. Packers fans recall this about Mike McCarthy as the head coach, too.

What worries me about the Cowboys

  • Dak Prescott is the exact type of quarterback that gives the Lions defense fits. He’s a mobile QB who looks to throw down the field on the move more than he wants to run, though he can run, too. Prescott is having an MVP-caliber season, throwing with great accuracy and many fewer mistakes than he’s done in recent years. He used to be a guy that pressure would rattle into bad throws. This year, Prescott has learned the value of just taking the sack and living for the next down.
  • Prescott is one of the NFL’s best deep throwers, and he’s got some good downfield receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and even the best TE you’ve never heard of, Jake Ferguson. Detroit’s biggest defensive weakness is defending the deep pass — and that’s with top CB Cam Sutton healthy. Sutton is questionable with a toe injury, which could lead to downfield struggles even if he plays. Detroit’s black hole at outside CB opposite Sutton and issues with safeties understanding deeper coverage responsibilities are a very bad matchup against Dallas.
  • Micah Parsons and the Cowboys deep pass rush can make life miserable if the opponent has to throw. Quarterbacks like Goff, who lack mobility or quickness and savvy in the in-pocket movement department, typically don’t fare well against their quick pressure. It feeds into a playmaking secondary featuring Daron Bland, who has already set the NFL record for pick-sixes in a season. The Cowboys defense will gamble to try and get the big play, knowing that even if they give up a big play, their offense can usually cover up those misses. It’s wildly empowering for players like Parsons, Bland and dynamic young Markquese Bell, guys who live to make the highlight reel even if they don’t do the down-to-down play all that effectively.
  • The Cowboys special teams are fantastic, from dangerous return man Kavontae Turpin to stellar rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey, who is a perfect 33-of-33 on field goals. That includes 8-for-8 from beyond 50 yards. Punter Bryan Anger is having a stronger, more consistent year than Detroit’s Jack Fox, too — in part thanks to more reliable coverage units that do not blow assignments. If it comes down to a field position or field goal battle, Dallas has a major advantage over Detroit’s occasionally great but often average special teams.

Final score prediction

This is a tough one. Before the season, when going through the schedule, this was the easiest loss to predict on the entire Lions calendar. It still is, unfortunately. While the Lions’ strengths match up nicely with what Dallas doesn’t do well, the opposite is even truer in this matchup. Cowboys 33, Lions 28.

Lions vs. Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction from Lions Wire’s Jeff Risdon

It’s Christmas Eve! The stockings are not yet hung by the chimney because there is Detroit Lions football today.

The return to the traditional 1 p.m. kickoff on a Sunday afternoon brings some normalcy back to the schedule. But as I sip the morning pot of coffee, I wonder if normalcy is so desirable? After all, normalcy for the Lions franchise means not winning the division, not capitalizing on the edge of glory. Today’s game can mean so much more than that.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • The depth of playmakers for Jared Goff and his willingness to use any of them on any given passing play. The Vikings like to create chaos with their exotic coverages and pass rush packages, but the perfect counter to that is a patient QB who isn’t locked into any one option. That’s Goff with Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds and — especially in this matchup — Jaymhr Gibbs.
  • I like the matchup of Aidan Hutchinson against a hobbled Brian O’Neill, who is one of the NFL’s better right tackles. Hutchinson’s relentless energy and quick spin moves are trouble for healthy tackles, and O’Neill is questionable with an ankle injury. Vikings QB Nick Mullens under pressure is trouble for Minnesota, which also doesn’t run the ball well (23rd in yards per game, 21st in yards per carry).
  • The Lions restored the roar last weekend, and I think they can apply the lessons from the rout over Denver successfully in Minnesota. That means aggressive, proactive defense and a sharp, speed-based offensive attack that counters pressure. Having a healthy starting offensive line certainly helps in this regard.

What worries me about the Vikings

  • Brian Flores’ defense has given Goff fits over the years. Flores blitzes the most but also drops more players into coverage more often than any other defense. Goff has struggled against defenses that conceal their intentions well, and that’s the default setting for the Vikings. Rookie LB Ivan Pace can be a major problem for Detroit today.
  • They’re playing for their playoff lives, and they know it. Minnesota is a good enough team to parlay that anxious energy and sense of desperation into dangerous football.
  • With Justin Jefferson back, the Vikings have two legit downfield receiving threats. Rookie Jordan Addison is a good one, too. And old friend T.J. Hockenson is gunning for 100 catches (he’s at 91) and 1,000 yards (902) and you know he’ll be motivated against Detroit. The Lions have major issues covering the secondary and tertiary receivers down the field, and that’s exactly how Minnesota is built. Mullens isn’t shy about taking shots, either.

Final score prediction

Earlier in the week, I was pretty confident in the Lions to pull this divisional road win off. But the simple reality of the concept of Detroit winning the division on the road against a team that, in theory, matches up well with them is weighing heavily. The Lions can do it, no question. They probably should do it. But will they do it? I need to see it first. Vikings 26, Lions 24.

Lions vs. Broncos: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Broncos: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 15 matchup in Ford Field

This week’s Detroit Lions game accelerates the timeline. A Saturday night game against the Denver Broncos means today’s morning pot of coffee gets nursed a lot longer. It’s a short sip kind of day in getting ready for the Week 15 prime-time matchup — one that could clinch a postseason berth for the Lions.

Here’s what is going through my mind about the game as we gear up for the final Lions home game before the calendar flips to the new year.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • I sense a return to an offensive game script and plan that better plays to the Lions’ strengths. Namely, running the ball and Jared Goff operating more play-action passes with better route spacing concepts. The Lions offense, and coordinator Ben Johnson, have veered away from those fundamentals lately and it’s not working. Johnson, Goff and Dan Campbell are too good, too smart, to keep failing by emphasizing things they don’t do so well. A healthy (fingers crossed!) offensive line will help, too.
  • It’s a great matchup for the Lions to get back to those offensive basics. The Broncos have the league’s worst run defense in yards per carry and also yards per carry on 1st downs. The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is a very real problem for Denver’s defense. So too is Lions rookie Sam LaPorta at tight end.So too is Lions rookie Sam LaPorta at tight end.
  • The Broncos are stylistically similar to the Bears, the Lions’ last opponent. It won’t take a radical crash course for Campbell and his coordinators to shift game plans on a short week. Meanwhile, Denver travels to Detroit having played the Chargers in a late-afternoon game last Sunday. L.A. runs a very different style of defense and also offers a contrasting passing game style and type of receiver than what the Broncos will see in Detroit.

What worries me about the Broncos

  • The matchup of the Lions secondary against Russell Wilson and the Denver passing game. The Lions CBs have played poorly in outside coverage for a few weeks now, and the safety play in the downfield passing game has been even worse. Wilson’s passing largely emphasizes either short throws or long throws. He averages less air yards per attempt than Goff and isn’t as accurate throwing down the field as his Lions counterpart, but Wilson’s willingness to let it fly and try for the big play is an issue. They’re a big-play team more than a long-drive, wear-you-down kind of offense. These Lions have had problems with offenses like that (Seattle, Baltimore, Green Bay).
  • Denver’s defense blitzes over 31 percent of the time, seventh-most in the league. And they’re not particularly good at it; their QB pressure rate of 5.2 percent (from Pro Football Reference) is 29th. By contrast, Detroit’s defense ranks 3rd in QB pressure percentage. However, Goff has really struggled with decision-making and ball security when pressured lately. Since the bye in Week 9, Goff has the league’s worst QBR when under pressure. Factor in Denver’s ability to create takeaways (12 in their last five games) and this could be a real issue.
  • I always worry about a kohai challenging a senpai, and that’s what Campbell is facing by coaching against his mentor, Sean Payton. It’s an abstract state of discomfort for me that could very well be nothing. But it might be something, something that could impact even a good coach like Campbell.

Final score prediction

I’m leaning on the Lions getting back to what was working so well earlier in the season. Those things all should translate very effectively against a tough but vulnerable Broncos team. If the coverage remains broken and the Jared Goff/Ben Johnson combination has another bad day, it’s likely to be ugly for the home team. I think the Lions remember who they are in this one and come away with a much-needed win. Lions 31, Broncos 20.

Lions at Bears: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions at Bears: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 14 matchup in Chicago

The Sunday morning coffee hits a little cleaner as we progress deeper into peppermint mocha season. Burying the pumpkin spice season is appropriate for the Detroit Lions given today’s opponent and how the last meeting went deep in the heart of November.

The last time the Lions and Chicago Bears faced off, it was the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Peak pumpkin spice season. Even though Detroit rallied for an epic win in Ford Field that day, that game left a rotten pumpkin taste in the mouth.

Will the Lions cleanse the palate in their final outdoor game of the regular season? Here’s what is going through my mind ahead of today’s Week 14 matchup in Soldier Field in Chicago.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • It’s the David Montgomery revenge game. The longtime Bears RB gained 76 yards on 12 carries in the Week 11 matchup, the first time the Lions RB played his old team. I expect more of the same in the windier but mostly dry conditions of Soldier Field. The Lions know they need to help out the injury-plagued offensive line by running the ball, and they should find success against the Bears run defense which is trending in the wrong direction: since (and including) that Week 11 Lions win, Detroit’s run defense is better in yards per carry (3.9 to 4.2). Teams don’t run at Chicago and that’s why their overall stats look great. Detroit did it very well last time (22 carries for 115 yards) and will do it again.
  • Jared Goff has game film and experience against the revamped Bears defense. Last time out, they dropped their LBs deeper and changed their coverage from their typical scheme. It worked, with Goff throwing three INTs and nearly throwing two others. Goff is smart enough to understand the adaptation, and I see Lions OC Ben Johnson changing up the attack to exploit the deeper LB drops. Can you say “Jamo bubble screen?”
  • Jack Campbell found his footing at LB last week. He’s the exact piece that can help contain Justin Fields.
  • I really liked how sharp the Lions special teams performed against the Saints. They needed a reset from a shaky (for them) few weeks and they got it. I expect that to carry over and prevent hidden yards on both sides of the equation from Chicago.

What worries me about the Bears

  • The Bears pass defense has definitely stepped up lately, with the third-best YPA allowed over the last month, a timeframe that includes the first meeting in Detroit. They’re getting more consistent pressure and doing it by blitzing less. Their acquisition of Montez Sweat fundamentally transformed their defense. With Penei Sewell having a couple of rough (for him) games and the interior OL shuffling, the Lions pass protection is unexpectedly vulnerable. Jared Goff doesn’t always handle that well, and the 10-20 MPH wind won’t help Detroit’s QB here.
  • Justin Fields is playing for his future, be it in Chicago or elsewhere. And he knows it. Their coaching staff is also playing for their collective future, and they know it, too. The Bears — and Fields — are not without talent and ability. They’re dangerously backed into a corner here.
  • The Bears don’t need to “tank”; they’ll get the No. 1 overall pick from their trade with Carolina clinched as soon as next week. Being a spoiler and growing more confident and together as a young unit by getting some wins is the plan. We witnessed the power of that mindset in Detroit with the Lions a year ago.

Final score prediction

In the end, I think the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will lead his team to a low-scoring victory. Gimmie Jared Goff and a much broader, diversely skilled set of weapons. Lions 20, Bears 16.

Lions vs. Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 12 Thanksgiving game

Happy Thanksgiving! The annual national spotlight game for the Detroit Lions sees the home team welcoming NFC North rival Green Bay to Ford Field.

This year’s game is unlike any Thanksgiving game for the Lions in a very long time. The Lions are 8-2, their best 10-game start since 1962. Meanwhile, the Packers have fallen from perennial playoff contender to a banged-up 4-6 start.

Here’s what I’m thinking about the game as I drink the morning coffee and look ahead to the turkey day extravaganza.

Why I think the Lions will win

  • The first matchup back in Week 4 was one of the strongest performances by the Lions of the Dan Campbell era. The game was not nearly as close as the 34-20 final score; the Lions led 27-3 deep into the third quarter and allowed only 23 yards on Green Bay’s first six offensive possessions. That the Packers mounted a bit of a late rally should only reinforce to Campbell’s Lions that they cannot relent or overlook Green Bay, too.
  • All those Green Bay injuries. The Packers will be without several key starters, including RB Aaron Jones and TE Luke Musgrave on offense and CB Jaire Alexander and S Darnell Savage on defense. The Packers don’t have proven depth to replace any of the walking wounded.
  • The Lions hold a major advantage with their rushing offense against Green Bay’s run defense. It starts with the line, but the innate ability of David Montgomery to force missed tackles proves especially effective against a team like the Packers that struggles in pursuit and containment.
  • The resiliency Campbell’s team showed on Sunday in playing nowhere close to their best and somehow still overcoming and winning really stands out. It’s hard to imagine the team playing so flat and sloppy once again. Jared Goff has been very good at burying bad performances in the past and I expect no different in front of the raucous home fans.

What worries me about the Packers

  • They want payback for how the Lions embarrassed them in Green Bay in the season finale last year. And the Week 4 prime-time matchup. Even though they’re the youngest team and without several key players, there is organizational pride and that’s not to be ignored.
  • The Packers defensive line has impressive talent. Rashan Gary has emerged as a very good pass rusher, and the interior line is the veteran strength of the team.
  • The young receiving speed and talent in Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed (and Dontayvion Wicks if he plays) is capable of doing a lot of damage to a spotty Lions pass defense that badly lacks depth on the outside. If the rush can’t impact Jordan Love, Green Bay’s recent draft investment at WR can be a big problem.
  • My own overconfidence in the Lions. They’re clearly the better team, they are a rough overall matchup for the Packers, and they’re healthy. The game shouldn’t be close. It’s hard to describe the uneasy angst that produces for Lions fans sailing in these uncharted waters.

Final prediction

I see the Lions asserting themselves as the better team, coming out firing and curbing any drama. The Packers will get some points, no doubt. The Lions will get even more.

Lions 36, Packers 23