The Sunday morning coffee hits a little cleaner as we progress deeper into peppermint mocha season. Burying the pumpkin spice season is appropriate for the Detroit Lions given today’s opponent and how the last meeting went deep in the heart of November.
The last time the Lions and Chicago Bears faced off, it was the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Peak pumpkin spice season. Even though Detroit rallied for an epic win in Ford Field that day, that game left a rotten pumpkin taste in the mouth.
Will the Lions cleanse the palate in their final outdoor game of the regular season? Here’s what is going through my mind ahead of today’s Week 14 matchup in Soldier Field in Chicago.
Why I think the Lions will win
- It’s the David Montgomery revenge game. The longtime Bears RB gained 76 yards on 12 carries in the Week 11 matchup, the first time the Lions RB played his old team. I expect more of the same in the windier but mostly dry conditions of Soldier Field. The Lions know they need to help out the injury-plagued offensive line by running the ball, and they should find success against the Bears run defense which is trending in the wrong direction: since (and including) that Week 11 Lions win, Detroit’s run defense is better in yards per carry (3.9 to 4.2). Teams don’t run at Chicago and that’s why their overall stats look great. Detroit did it very well last time (22 carries for 115 yards) and will do it again.
- Jared Goff has game film and experience against the revamped Bears defense. Last time out, they dropped their LBs deeper and changed their coverage from their typical scheme. It worked, with Goff throwing three INTs and nearly throwing two others. Goff is smart enough to understand the adaptation, and I see Lions OC Ben Johnson changing up the attack to exploit the deeper LB drops. Can you say “Jamo bubble screen?”
- Jack Campbell found his footing at LB last week. He’s the exact piece that can help contain Justin Fields.
- I really liked how sharp the Lions special teams performed against the Saints. They needed a reset from a shaky (for them) few weeks and they got it. I expect that to carry over and prevent hidden yards on both sides of the equation from Chicago.
What worries me about the Bears
- The Bears pass defense has definitely stepped up lately, with the third-best YPA allowed over the last month, a timeframe that includes the first meeting in Detroit. They’re getting more consistent pressure and doing it by blitzing less. Their acquisition of Montez Sweat fundamentally transformed their defense. With Penei Sewell having a couple of rough (for him) games and the interior OL shuffling, the Lions pass protection is unexpectedly vulnerable. Jared Goff doesn’t always handle that well, and the 10-20 MPH wind won’t help Detroit’s QB here.
- Justin Fields is playing for his future, be it in Chicago or elsewhere. And he knows it. Their coaching staff is also playing for their collective future, and they know it, too. The Bears — and Fields — are not without talent and ability. They’re dangerously backed into a corner here.
- The Bears don’t need to “tank”; they’ll get the No. 1 overall pick from their trade with Carolina clinched as soon as next week. Being a spoiler and growing more confident and together as a young unit by getting some wins is the plan. We witnessed the power of that mindset in Detroit with the Lions a year ago.
Final score prediction
In the end, I think the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will lead his team to a low-scoring victory. Gimmie Jared Goff and a much broader, diversely skilled set of weapons. Lions 20, Bears 16.