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The Indiana Fever (3-9) and Connecticut Sun (9-1) meet Monday in a Commissioner’s Cup game at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Fever vs. Sun odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Sun lead 2-0
Indiana will play at Mohegan Sun Arena for the 2nd time this season. That 1st meeting was May 14 in the regular-season opener with Connecticut posting a 92-71 win as a 6.5-point favorite and the Under (166.5) cashing. The Fever played much better at home in the rematch May 20, but the Sun emerged victorious 88-84, but Indiana covered as a 5.5-point underdog and the Over (164) hit.
The Sun have won 10 straight meetings vs. the Fever. The last time Indiana beat Connecticut was July 3, 2021, back when G Caitlin Clark just finished her freshman campaign at Iowa.
Clark matched a career-high with 30 points in an 85-83 win at the Washington Mystics Friday. She also had 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals, but the Fever failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. In the 2 meetings vs. the Sun, Clark averaged 18.5 PPG with 4.0 APG and 3.5 3-pointers.
Connecticut is coming off its 1st loss of the season, falling as a 2.5-point home underdog to the New York Liberty 82-75 Saturday — the Over (154) cashed. The Sun shot just 40.8% from the field (29-of-71), while going a dismal 25.0% (4-of-16) from behind the 3-point line.
Fever at Sun odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Fever +490 (bet $100 to win $490) | Sun -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Fever +11 (-110) | Sun -11 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 159.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Fever at Sun picks and predictions
Prediction
Sun 80, Fever 72
Moneyline
Connecticut (-750) will cost 7½ times your potential return, and there is never a reason to justify risking that kind of money for such a small reward.
Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including the Sun will suck all of the value out of your ticket.
AVOID and focus on the spread.
Against the spread
INDIANA +11 (-110) is a strong play catching double digits in this Commissioner’s Cup battle.
While Connecticut is sure to be angry after its 1st loss of the season, both of these teams are 2-1 straight up (SU) so far during the Commissioner’s Cup schedule. The Fever have been playing much better lately, and they covered the rematch against the Sun in Indianapolis.
The Fever are 1-2 ATS as a double-digit underdogs this season, but the Sun are 3-6 ATS in their past 9 games, including the non-cover at Indiana May 20.
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Over/Under
UNDER 159.5 (-108) might be the best play on the board in this standalone game Monday.
The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games for the Sun, and the total went low in the opener in Uncasville between these teams.
Connecticut ranks No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring defense, allowing just 70.6 PPG, while allowing teams to hit just 28.2% from behind the 3-point line, ranking No. 2 in the W.
Meanwhile, Indiana ranks just No. 9 in scoring offense at 78.0 PPG, while hitting only 41.7% from the field, ranking 8th. It should have trouble solving Connecticut’s defense.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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