2020 NFL coaching changes: New York Giants

A first-time NFL head coach takes over the New York Giants, and fantasy football owners are left with plenty of questions.

(Danielle Parhizkaran, USA TODAY Sports)

At 38 years old, Joe Judge becomes the fourth man to coach the New York Giants since the Tom Coughlin era ended in 2015. Both Ben McAdoo and Pat Shurmur were hired as promising offensive coordinators looking to put a fresh — if even youthful by comparison — stamp on this proud franchise after 12 years of rule by the elder statesman.

It almost worked with McAdoo after he nearly doubled Coughlin’s win total from 2015 with an 11-5 showing in ’16. In the three seasons since, with McAdoo being replaced during the 2017 season by Steve Spagnuolo and Shurmur lasting two full campaigns, the Giants have won 12 total games. That does not get the job done, even in the NFC East.

Circling back to present time, the hiring of an untested coach seems curious. There is much to be learned right away, and finding out the hard way in the NFL typically costs many people their jobs as the franchise has to press the reset button. If all else fails, no one can accuse the Mara family of being afraid to take a chance.

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So what did the brass see in Judge to warrant his hiring? Experience winning at the highest level, for one. He comes over after spending eight years with the New England Patriots, getting his start as a special teams assistant (2012-14). He served most recently as special teams coordinator (2015-19) while adding wide receivers coach in 2019 to his list of responsibilities. The 2019 Giants’ ragtag band of wideouts thoroughly surprised most prognosticators with 20 touchdown grabs (tied fourth most). Receivers coach Tyke Tolbert was retained for his third year, indicating Judge may not need to be heavily involved in this area of the team.

No one has to worry about Judge taking on too much of a role in his first year in New York. The offense will be run by Jason Garrett after his contract was not renewed by the division-rival Dallas Cowboys for a 10th full season as their head coach. He made a name for himself as an offensive mind once his quarterbacking days were done. The long-time backup to Troy Aikman found immediate success as a playcaller for the Cowboys. He would go on to relinquish the dual role of head coach and offensive coordinator following the 2012 season.

Table: Jason Garrett’s team rankings as a playcaller (lower number is better)

			Offense			Rushing Off					Passing Off
Year	Tm	Role	Yds	Pts	TO	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	FL	Att	Yds	TD	Int
2007	DAL	OC	3	2	7	21	17	10	10	1	18	4	2	21
2008	DAL	OC	13	18	31	25	21	22	12	26	8	9	4	29
2009	DAL	OC	2	14	4	17	7	15	2	11	13	6	13	3
2010	DAL	HC/OC	7	7	20	15	16	21	15	17	9	6	7	20
2011	DAL	HC*	11	15	7	24	18	30	9	16	11	7	5	5
2012	DAL	HC*	6	15	25	31	31	27	30	17	3	3	6	28

*Called plays despite no longer having OC title

Under Garrett as a playcaller, Dallas never fell into the lower half of the league in total yardage generated. His system always produced a top-10 passing yardage result, and all but one season it ranked in the top seven for touchdown strikes. The ground game didn’t flourish as well, but in Garrett’s defense, the Cowboys struggled for ages to find a running back to replace Emmitt Smith for longer than a season or so of quality play until Ezekiel Elliott was drafted, and Garrett wasn’t calling plays at that point. Instead, he had Marion Barber III and two years of DeMarco Murray not being particularly effective. Garrett took to the air at a top-10 rate in his final two years calling plays, including the league’s second-most attempts during the 2011 season.

In New York, the do-all Saquon Barkley should continue to thrive, but no player figures to benefit as much as quarterback Daniel Jones. Garrett has been fortunate enough to field two franchise quarterbacks during his tenure in Dallas, and we saw more than enough promise from Jones as a rookie to buy into the idea this union is destined for great things.

Personnel concerns

The Giants have plenty of salary cap space at an estimated $58.2 million available heading into the new league year. There could be even more room found if a few veterans are restructured. No one of consequence on the offensive side of the ball is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in March.

Addressing the offensive line will be crucial, and some of the deficiencies can be handled via coaching. Building in the trenches will be the focus of the offseason movement and draft, which should come as no surprise given general manager Dave Gettleman’s preference for designing a team from the inside out.

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Journeyman right tackle Mike Remmers will be available to sign elsewhere, and it’s not a concern, even though the obvious answer to replace him isn’t currently on the roster. Perhaps impending free agent Jack Conklin (Titans) will be of interest. Maybe a positional change is considered for left tackle Nate Solder, who has failed to live up to a massive contract as the blindside protector.

Center Jon Halapio will start his offseason rehabbing a torn Achilles tendon, and the run-blocking regression of second-year guard Will Hernandez didn’t go unnoticed. Neither is a deal-breaker, but adding quality depth will be extremely important.

Oft-injured tight end Evan Engram’s contract enters its final year and is fully guaranteed. While the cost of cutting him wouldn’t be prohibitive at $3.41 million, he’s going to be getting paid that much anyway, so the Giants might as well ride it out one more year with the talented but brittle Engram.

Fantasy football assessment

Jones, as mentioned, should benefit a great deal from the hiring of Garrett. The receiving corps has safety and promise already baked in, and when all is working properly, Engram and Barkley offer dynamic checkdown options. Having such explosive outlets can turn a hurried dump-off pass into a double-digit fantasy play for Jones’ owners. The offensive line concerns and having to learn another offense do give some pause. Cautiously draft him as a high-end QB2 and expect him to force tough lineup decisions many weeks.

Barkley battled a high-ankle sprain and a weak offensive line during his sophomore season. Don’t hold those against him. Injuries haven’t become a pattern yet, and the line should improve. We saw late in the season when he was finally healthy just how much damage he can do in spite of poor run blocking. He’s arguably the top pick once again and is pretty well a lock for the top three in any PPR draft.

Wideouts … this is where it gets a little murky. We saw a tremendous rookie season from Darius Slayton, and one has to believe he will be given every opportunity to capitalize on it. There’s star potential here, but gamers should monitor his offseason progression in this new system. Golden Tate showed he still has a little somethin’ in the tank as he navigates his early 30s, and he’s remains a serviceable depth option in fantasy. “Serviceable” also can be said for Sterling Shepard, although his concussion tally is trending the wrong way. One big hit could be enough to force him to be shut down for an unusual amount of time. He performs as a WR2 many weeks, so there’s still a reason to take a chance on Shepard.

Engram, as discussed, will be given every opportunity to prove he’s still capable of finishing a full season and play at a high level throughout. The upside comes with massive risk in fantasy drafts, and owners will be forced to spend up on an adequate depth replacement option if Engram is their No. 1 tight end.

As for Judge, as long as he relies on his extensive experience with Bill Belichick and a his former head coaches on staff, the sky is the limit. He has the right demeanor to turn this thing around in a hurry, and New York really isn’t that far away from being one of the scariest offenses in the NFL for fantasy football purposes. It all comes down to getting more from the offensive line and the Year 2 maturation of a quarterback whose rookie season was full of bright spots.

Miles Teller is also pretty stoked the New England Patriots aren’t in the Super Bowl

The Top Gun: Maverick actor also shares his fantasy football advice.

Actor and fantasy football enthusiast Miles Teller is going to have a pretty big summer, with the opening of the highly anticipated Top Gun sequel set to hit theaters in June. Before all that though, he’s hanging out and soaking up the atmosphere in Miami, pre Super Bowl. He spoke to For The Win about his new movie, fantasy football tips and how glad he is the Patriots can’t win Super Bowl 54.

There’s a huge amount of anticipation for Top Gun: Maverick. What can you share without giving away spoilers?

Miles Teller: I can’t say too much about it, but it’s a true sequel it takes place in the present day. It’s where Maverick would be 30 some odd years later and he comes back as our instructor. He’s training us as a special detachment.

So, you can’t share that much.

MT: No, but what I can talk about is the training of it. In the first one Tom (Cruise) was the only guy who could stand being in the jet for a little bit because of the G-force. None of those guys really did training for it. For this, Tom came up with a very specific training schedule for us so we had three months worth of flying lessons, just so that we could be able to film in these jets, because you’re experiencing 71/2 Gs, and that’s like 1,600 lbs of pressure or something. You are whipping around in that thing. We were put through the ringer by Tom.

Did you ever get sick through all that? That sounds intense.

MT: I did not, but if you talked to 50% of the other guys, it’s different. I think about 50% of the people who trained were getting sick every time they went up. It’s really intense.

Do you have a favorite memory from the making of the film?

MT: I think just when we were doing the training, we were all in Nevada, where Top Gun is. And when Tom put on the Maverick helmet, when we saw him put that on for the first time, that was kind of like a pinch me moment. It all felt very real at that moment.

So, I know you play a lot of fantasy football…

MT: Yeah, I play way too much. I used to be in one league and now I’m in, I don’t know, five or something.

You did really well this season, you won two of the leagues you’re in and got second place in the AGBO Superhero league. What’s your advice on how to dominate in leagues?

MT: I try and grab guys from offenses that I think are just going to put up points. I don’t reach with QBs. I got Russell Wilson pretty late. I usually end up grabbing a pretty good tight end because to me there’s usually a pretty big gap between the top couple of guys and then you can stream a tight end and then they’re hot for a little bit, and then they disappear from the offense.

A lot of the time there’s injuries too, so gotta be good on the free agent wire. Chris Godwin came out of nowhere this year, so hopefully your hunches are right. But then my buddy had the Patriots defense, and they were scoring more points than like, any of the top wide receivers by a long shot. There’s always something weird that happens.

You’ve got a coveted spot in the Bloodsport fantasy league. Was there a last place penalty or punishment this season?

Editors note: Bloodsport is the super exclusive league started by actor Chris Evans.

MT: No, we haven’t gotten into the punishment yet. Actually, originally, I think there was initially a pretty big buy-in and then Evans one, and I don’t think anyone sent him any money. It’s just for pride. We’re all in a group chat so it’s really for the smack talk.

Can you share any of that trash talk that goes down?

MT: Well, it’s all pretty constant. There’s some pretty funny dudes in there who like, do comedy for a living, so it’s pretty fun. They could turn that group chat into a half-hour sitcom and people would be happy with the writing. It’s great.

Who’s the funniest?

MT: [Paul] Rudd’s pretty funny, Ryan Reynolds is very funny. Those two guys stick out. Oh, and Pratt.

Do you have a rooting interest in this year’s Super Bowl?

MT: I’m good both ways, I like the style of football the 9ers play. I like to see the rushing attack. I’m just glad there’s no chance the Patriots can win the Super Bowl.

Last question, seriously, how handsome is Jimmy Garoppolo. Think he can make it Hollywood?

MT: [Laughs] Sure, when he retires lets put him on a soap opera.

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2020 NFL coaching changes: Minnesota Vikings

Veteran offensive mastermind Gary Kubiak replaces Kevin Stefanski as the playcaller of Minnesota’s talented offense.

Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski turned a stint of less than two full years at the position into the head coaching gig of the Cleveland Browns, and it resulted in Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer naming veteran offensive mastermind Gary Kubiak the OC for 2020.

The move makes a ton of sense for a number of reasons. Primarily, this team has tremendous “win-now pressure” to go on top of playing in a tough division and highly competitive conference. Rather than turning over the keys to an inexperienced playcaller, letting Kubiak drive this supercharged offense helps ensure it will achieve peak performance. His offensive system won’t be much different from what Stefanski ran, since Kubiak helped develop that system.

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If you remember back to Stefanski taking over for the fired John DeFilippo in 2018, Zimmer wanted to return to his roots with a ground-based offense. The Vikings were extremely effective running the ball in 2019 under Stefanski, and only two teams (SF, BAL) passed less often than Minnesota (50.5 percent run plays). Six of the seven teams to run the most plays on the ground were in the postseason this year, whereas just KC out of the 11 most pass-happy teams clinched a postseason berth. Remaining committed to such a formula is Zimmer’s directive in hiring Kubiak, the 2019 assistant head coach.

A quick refresher on Kubiak’s history reminds us of his love for running the football. Due, in part, to past health issues, he sat out of coaching in 2017 and ’18, instead holding a consultation role with the Denver Broncos. Granted, much has changed across the NFL from 1995 to present day, yet we have seen Kub produce top rushing and passing offenses, depending upon the personnel. While he mostly found success with average quarterback talent and a superstar in his last hoorah, it’s not like too many of Kubiak’s running backs were elite, either.

			Offense			Rushing Off					Passing Off
Year	Tm	Role	Yds	Pts	TO	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	FL	Att	Yds	TD	Int
1995	DEN	OC	3	9	14	16	5	13	2	22	7	7	8	8
1996	DEN	OC	1	4	17	2	1	2	4	25	16	13	5	12
1997	DEN	OC	1	1	6	6	4	5	2	7	20	9	4	6
1998	DEN	OC	3	2	3	2	2	1	2	3	21	7	5	8
1999	DEN	OC	14	18	10	9	12	10	14	8	10	15	26	16
2000	DEN	OC	2	2	7	4	3	3	6	17	9	3	6	5
2001	DEN	OC	22	10	9	6	10	30	19	3	20	25	8	18
2002	DEN	OC	3	7	11	11	5	5	3	4	14	8	18	23
2003	DEN	OC	7	10	7	2	2	3	4	2	26	22	16	18
2004	DEN	OC	5	9	18	2	4	15	8	5	16	6	8	25
2005	DEN	OC	5	7	1	2	2	3	4	5	25	18	20	2
2006	HOU	HC	28	28	11	21	21	14	20	16	23	27	28	8
2007	HOU	HC	14	12	31	22	22	16	24	27	19	11	12	28
2008	HOU	HC	3	17	30	16	13	11	13	20	7	4	13	29
2009	HOU	HC	4	10	16	20	30	18	31	17	4	1	5	17
2010	HOU	HC	3	9	4	19	7	1	3	2	10	4	17	7
2011	HOU	HC	13	10	6	1	2	3	8	22	30	18	18	3
2012	HOU	HC	7	8	6	4	8	4	16	1	18	11	18	10
2013	HOU	HC	11	31	26	22	20	28	15	9	6	15	25	28
2014	BAL	OC	12	8	6	11	8	5	7	9	17	13	12	8
2015	DEN	HC	16	19	29	17	17	12	13	7	13	14	28	32
2016	DEN	HC	27	22	21	15	27	20	28	30	17	21	21	12

Kubiak didn’t call the plays himself in each of those seasons. However, including them is a must, since he didn’t take his finger off of the heartbeat of his teams’ systems. Whether it be handpicking the playcaller, constructing a game plan, and/or interjecting with a specific call during a game, Kubiak never let the offensive designs truly go out of his control. He also had a large role in molding the Stefanski system of 2019, as mentioned.

Zone blocking is a staple of a Kubiak offense, and the outside stretch run is one of his favorite plays. The offense loves to deceive defenses through play-action passing, rollouts, bootlegs, misdirections and a plethora of personnel groupings. Being a West Coast system, running backs are expected to catch, and tight ends are just as important as route runners as blockers. Receivers are asked to block as much as any team. They operate with short-area routes and clearouts to keep defenses scrambling to cover the proper level.

Personnel changes

Surprisingly, on offense, that is, the Vikings have no noteworthy impending free agents. No team has less money with which to work during free agency, and there are several familiar defensive faces poised to walk for one reason or another.

Soaking up 15.5 percent of the overall salary cap, quarterback Kirk Cousins should be asked to rework his deal. The team could ask him to restructure his contract in a way that adds time to the final year of his original three-year pact, or the Vikings will let him ride it out at $31 million against the cap and limit their ability to spend elsewhere.

Left tackle Riley Reiff may be asked to restructure, and Minnesota would save $8.8 million against the cap by releasing the veteran.

Nearly 13 percent of the cap is tied up in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs alone. Dalvin Cook enters the final year of his rookie deal ahead of what figures to be his desire to ink a bank-breaking contract.

Fantasy football assessment

The most simplistic view is little should change under Kubiak. So long as the running game is effective, the passing game can be tuned into an efficient machine that operates on precision and yards after the catch, rather than sheer volume.

Cousins will continue to be asked to produce as a game manager first, gunslinger second. That results in uneven fantasy returns but can be explosive when everything properly aligns. He’s a fringe QB1 and a safer No. 2 or rotational passer in 2020 drafts.

Cook may see a few more reps if the Vikings don’t intend to re-sign him after the season. Take that into consideration: If no long-term extension is reached between the two sides before your fantasy draft, Cook might be abused with a heavy workload. Either way, he’s an elite RB1 in all formats. Handcuffing Alexander Mattison is the way to go.

The wideouts, primarily Diggs and Thielen, will continue to be inconsistent in this type of an offense. Diggs is a streaky player as it is, and Thielen should remain the preferred fantasy option, despite his lengthy absence with a bum hammy in 2019. He adds more to fantasy lineups across the board than the volume-dependent Diggs, whose game is better suited for PPR setups. Thielen is a borderline WR1 (much safer as a No. 2), and Diggs is a low-end WR2 in PPR or third in conventional scoring.

Tight end was a volatile position for this offense in 2019. Veteran Kyle Rudolph was in a slumber much of the way before awakening in grand fashion as Thielen battled his hamstring injury. We also saw flashes from rookie Irv Smith Jr., and he could be asked to take on a much larger role in 2020 — which presumably would come at the expense of Rudolph’s fantasy football contributions. Neither player is a starting target just yet in 12-team leagues with typical lineup requirements.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Jacksonville Jaguars

Former Washington head coach Jay Gruden comes to Duval County to help right the ship.

The Jacksonville Jaguars opted to keep head coach Doug Marrone in charge for the 2020 season but made yet another switch at offensive coordinator — this time bringing in former Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden.

Gruden made a name for himself as an elite player and also a head coach in the Arena Football League. He won four titles as a player and another two as a coach, appearing in four total championship games while on the sidelines. He also appeared in one more title game, losing during his lone year as the head coach in the United Football League.

From 2002-08, Gruden served as an offensive assistant under his brother, Jon Gruden, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including during their Super Bowl win. During the 2009 he was the OC in the UFL for the Florida Tuskers, and he became head coach of the franchise for 2010 season.

The NFL came calling once again in 2011. Then-Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis hired Gruden to serve as his offensive coordinator, a position he held for three seasons prior to joining Washington.

Table: Jay Gruden’s offensive ranks from 2011-18 (higher number is better)

			Offense			Rushing Off					Passing Off
Year	Tm	Role	Yds	Pts	TO	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	FL	Att	Yds	TD	Int
2011	CIN	OC	20	18	9	10	19	21	27	10	20	20	13	12
2012	CIN	OC	22	12	17	17	18	18	20	17	19	17	7	18
2013	CIN	OC	10	6	25	8	18	13	28	16	12	8	3	24
2014	WAS	HC	13	26	29	21	19	9	14	25	18	11	27	26
2015	WAS*	HC	17	10	15	14	20	20	30	22	20	11	13	9
2016	WAS*	HC	3	12	15	27	21	6	9	13	7	2	14	14
2017	WAS	HC	16	16	26	24	27	21	30	30	18	12	9	16
2018	WAS	HC	28	29	11	14	17	20	18	1	26	28	28	22

*Did not call plays

The 2019 season was removed from the table due to Gruden coaching only five games. He gave up playcalling duties following his first season in Washington, and after Sean McVay left for the Los Angeles Rams prior to 2017, Gruden resumed a dual role. Even with McVay was calling the plays from week to week, it was still Gruden’s offensive system, and the head coach would occasionally have to steer McVay back on course. Kevin O’Connell served as the official offensive coordinator, which meant he focused mainly on helping design game plans from week to week and making sure players understood their roles as well as the concepts.

Gruden is a bright offensive mind with considerable success, although he never has been able to consistently produce a dominant offense in the NFL. The most successful campaign came with McVay making the in-game decisions. Gruden wasn’t able to overcome suspect quarterback play when presented to him. He made a mess of the three-way situation with Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy in 2014, and we saw four actual quarterbacks throw passes in the 2018 hot start that quickly turned south after Alex Smith broke his leg. While it is fair to wonder what could have been with a healthy Smith, and/or whether the Redskins would be on a different trajectory had RG3 not battled so many injuries, here we are…

Gruden enters the 2020 season with a veteran journeyman in Nick Foles and a promising 2019 rookie in Gardner Minshew as his primary options at quarterback. There may be politics at play that force Foles into the starting lineup, but Minshew clearly was the better quarterback when given the chance.

The offense has roots of West Coast football, and Foles thrived in modified WCOs while with the Philadelphia Eagles. Perhaps this gives him a leg up on Minshew, but the 2019 John DeFilippo system was also carved out of a West Coast bedrock, and Foles was a dud.

Pass-to-run ratio

Table: Jay Gruden playcalling breakdown

Rk	Year	Team	Rush Att/G	Pass Att/G	Plays/G	Run %	Pass %
21	2011	Cincinnati Bengals	28.4	33.4	61.9	46.0%	54.0%
19	2012	Cincinnati Bengals	26.9	33.8	60.6	44.3%	55.7%
22	2013	Cincinnati Bengals	30.1	36.7	66.8	45.0%	55.0%
17	2014	Washington Redskins	25.1	34.2	59.3	42.3%	57.7%
14	2017	Washington Redskins	25.1	33.8	58.8	42.6%	57.4%
23	2018	Washington Redskins	26.0	32.0	58.0	44.9%	55.1%

Gruden prefers to set up the pass with the run and remain committed to the ground game. Even though he has passed more than run by 9 or more percentage points in each of those seasons, this is what balanced and committed to running looks like in the modern era. For example, only two teams (Seattle and Tennessee) ran more than passed in 2018 (Gruden’s last full year as a playcaller). Just Buffalo ran more than passed in 2017 … you get the point. Gruden’s patterns of playcalling over the course of a season from one year to the next have been remarkably consistent and create a much-needed identity for the Jags.

Personnel decisions

Jacksonville has the sixth-youngest roster and the second-fewest cap dollars available entering 2020 free agency. Voiding the contract of defensive tackle Marcell Dareus will save $20 million, and the majority of the money is tied up in a defense that needs to be retooled. No team has more cap space allocated to its defense. On the offensive side, none of the core starters are free agents.

The offensive line needs some work, and much of it can come through maturation. Staying healthy also is key, which can be said for most teams but feels more imperative in this case. Both tackles are key pieces to the puzzle and have to improve — particularly 2019 second-round rookie RT Jawaan James’s penchant for mistakes.

Fantasy football takeaway

Regardless of how the quarterback situation shakes out, Gruden has a young offense to shape to his ideals. We know what Foles is as a fantasy football option, and it hasn’t been pretty more often than not. Minshew has considerable upside but remains a backup option who has spot-start potential.

Running back Leonard Fournette struggled to be special on the ground most of the year and made up for it as a pass-catching machine for the Jaguars. He ran for 75 or more yards in five of 15 games. While Fournette had his moments, the LSU star scored just three rushing touchdowns and two came in one game. This could change with an upgrade among the receivers or by adding a running back whose game is built around this area of play. It begs the question if impending free-agent third-down back Chris Thompson will follow Gruden to Jacksonville. Fournette, in a vacuum, is rated as an RB2 with upside for more. Injury history and yet another offensive system to take in makes him somewhat risky, however.

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Wide receiver is on the rise but still could use an upgrade. DJ Chark Jr. was the best of the lot in fantasy and a surprise in his second year. He has A.J. Green-like qualities to his game and could be a stud in 2020. Keep him on your short list of players who have broken out but still have room for growth. Dede Westbrook’s physical skills and durability limit his overall potential, but there is still some potential for a stronger year in 2020. Treat him as a flex consideration or a depth addition. Other receivers, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole, flashed at times in 2019 but are not draft-worthy options in fantasy entering 2020.

Tight end has potential in 2019 rookie Josh Oliver (back). He finished the year on IR and is still learning the ropes as a project player. Provided his recovery is not problematic, pencil him in as a sneaky fantasy option in an offense that has preferred the tight end position throughout the years.

Gruden is not a flashy playcaller, nor does he tend to surprise a defense too often. His system is all about execution and consistency. Fournette should be the biggest winner of this system change. Picking up chunks of yardage on early downs helps make conversions easier, and it allows the offense to take shots down the field when the defense moves to a Cover 1 or Cover 0 to stop the run. Stability through experience will be Gruden’s most important contribution to the Jaguars in 2020.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Los Angeles Chargers

Aside from the Philip Rivers uncertainty, the Chargers look to keep continuity with promoting Shane Steichen.

Oct. 30, 2019, the Los Angeles Chargers promoted Shane Steichen from quarterbacks coach to interim offensive coordinator after the firing of Ken Whisenhunt. Steichen was given the official title of OC just a few short months later.

The 2020 season will be his first full year with command of an NFL offense, and his tenure begins with the biggest question mark of all: What will the Chargers do at quarterback this offseason?

Personnel decisions

The 16-year veteran, 38-year-old Philip Rivers, incumbent is a free agent in March, and plenty of chatter suggests the Bolts will be moving on. Some reports point to the coaching staff’s affinity for veteran backup Tyrod Taylor as a stop-gap while grooming a rookie, and others float Tom Brady’s name about, although the door isn’t entirely closed on Rivers’ return.

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The second question of major importance: Will Melvin Gordon return as the primary running back? A follow-up has to be: Do the Chargers even want him back with the way Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson played in 2019?

Aside from quarterback and running back, the Chargers also face the potential loss of talented but oft-injured tight end Hunter Henry. Wide receiver Travis Benjamin is a free agent, too, but he’s far from being irreplaceable.

The system

Steichen, 34, cut his teeth in the NFL under Norv Turner in San Diego during the 2011 and ’12 seasons as a defensive assistant. He moved over to the offensive side of the ball in 2013 with Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland as a quality control coach before returning to the Chargers in 2014 under the Mike McCoy regime to hold the same title through the 2015 season. In ’16, he took on the role of quarterbacks coach until his aforementioned promotion to interim OC. Surviving multiple years and positions under two coaches speaks volumes to the respect inside the ranks for Steichen.

While we have a limited view into how he will call plays and their efficacy, some basic themes we should continue to see in 2020 include a commitment to running the ball, the use of play-action passing, an emphasis on downfield attempts, and an aggressive nature.

Over the final eight games, Steichen’s offense scored more points, managed more first downs, totaled more yards, and firmly established a ground attack significantly more dangerous than that of his predecessor. Gordon finally rounding into game form played a factor in the second-half success.

Week	Opp	Pts	1stD	TotYd	PassY	RushY	TO
1	Indianapolis Colts	30	25	435	310	125	2
2	Detroit Lions	10	21	424	287	137	2
3	Houston Texans	20	22	366	293	73	1
4	Miami Dolphins	30	24	390	311	79	0
5	Denver Broncos	13	19	246	211	35	3
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	23	348	316	32	3
7	Tennessee Titans	20	24	365	326	39	1
8	Chicago Bears	17	11	231	195	36	1
	Whisenhunt averages	19.6	21.1	350.6	281.1	69.5	1.6
9	Green Bay Packers	26	24	442	283	159	0
10	Oakland Raiders	24	26	315	169	146	3
11	Kansas City Chiefs	17	23	438	345	93	4
12	Bye Week
13	Denver Broncos	20	17	359	244	115	2
14	Jacksonville Jaguars	45	27	525	330	195	0
15	Minnesota Vikings	10	17	345	283	62	7
16	Oakland Raiders	17	21	284	265	19	0
17	Kansas City Chiefs	21	25	366	258	108	2
	*Steichen averages*	*22.5*	*22.5*	*384.3*	*272.1*	*112.1*	*2.3*
	Differential	13%	7.4%	8.8%	-3.2%	38%	0.28

The passing yardage per game went down ever so slightly, and the turnovers went up — largely fueled by a total offensive implosion vs. the Vikings. The offense didn’t turn it over at all in three games under Steichen vs. once under Whis.

Rivers attempted more yards per pass, averaged nearly a yard per completion more, and slightly improved his completion-to-touchdown ratio during his eight games with Steichen. Unfortunately, those increases came at the detriment of throwing an interception at nearly twice the frequency and a smidge lower completion rate.

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Pushing the ball down the field tends to increase mistakes, and the Chargers played underwhelming football on the defensive side of the ball, which put Rivers in a hole more often.

One thing Steichen learned from Chudzinski was flexibility in catering the system to the personnel rather than trying to force players into a rigid design. We’ve seen Chud move from city to city to work wonders with varied types of passers. There’s obviously going to be a much different offensive approach if Taylor starts instead of Rivers, or if a rookie is the top quarterback. Experience handling this kind of flexibility can make a world of difference for fantasy purposes, even if it can make projections infinitely more troublesome.

Fantasy football takeaway

Soooo … there’s a ton of potential turnover of key members of personnel at crucial positions. Given all of the volatility, specifically at quarterback, it isn’t worthwhile to provide any kind of definitive fantasy takes.

Speaking in generalities is the best course of action at this time. The quarterback position will be asked to operate with less volume but more chances for dynamic plays. This kind of play tends to result in erratic fantasy results.

Running back will be the focal point for fantasy football purposes coming from this offense. It’s anyone’s guess as to which backs will be deployed, and there’s always an outside shot Ekeler and Gordon are gone. The former is a restricted free agent, so his options are limited, and the Chargers get first right to refusal. We can reasonably expect RB2 production out of the most prolific player from this backfield.

Wide receiver: Little should change in terms of the roles and values. Keenan Allen figures to remain the primary possession target, while Mike Williams’ downfield skills make him an inconsistent No. 3 fantasy option. Allen’s role may remain intact, but his fantasy returns are in question with a looming quarterback change. He and Rivers have been a consistently reliable tandem in fantasy, and any change on the quarterback end of such an equation makes for uncertainty. Talent alone, Allen is a strong WR2 or low-tier No. 1 in PPR.

Two of the top three tight ends are unrestricted free agents come March. There will be plenty of attention for Henry’s services on the open market, and reports suggest the Bolts could place the transition tag on him. This allows other teams to negotiate and gives LA the right to match any deal, but there isn’t compensation in return should he leave. It is also around $1.8 million cheaper than using the franchise tag.

Expected improvement on defense this season from the Chargers, and count on the offense being able to run the ball because of it. The passing game could be in flux if Rivers doesn’t return, and even if he does, we’re talking about an age-39 season after throwing 20 picks in 2019.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers turn to Baylor’s Matt Rhule to revive a stagnant franchise. What does it mean for fake football?

After 12 games, the Carolina Panthers fired two-time AP Coach of the Year Ron Rivera and then cleaned house following the season finale. In comes first-time NFL head coach Matt Rhule on the heels of a pair of successful rebuilds at Temple and Baylor. Along with him from the collegiate ranks comes a rookie offensive coordinator in LSU’s Joe Brady, only 30 years old.

Brady spent two years as an offensive assistant to Sean Payton in New Orleans immediately prior to the stint at LSU.

For now, the focus will remain on what we can expect, even if nothing appears set in stone.

Themes we do know:

Rhule is extremely adaptable: He’s a born New Yorker who coached in Philly before moving to Waco, Texas, and took on the lifestyle.
He adopted a run/pass option (RPO) system at Baylor after being known for his preference of a smash-mouth offense.
Rhule prefers a player-centric but demanding style of coaching.
He has experience coaching on both sides of the ball and has formulated a unique perspective because of it.

Things we don’t have answers for yet:

What will happen with Cam Newton? Carolina has to make a decision at QB, which will massively impact how the path forward is handled in terms of personnel and overall expectations.
If Newton leaves, to whom do the Panthers turn?
Is it time to move on from tight end Greg Olsen? Does he choose to retire (seems to be the likely outcome)?
Can Christian McCaffrey continue to see that kind of workload and maintain a high level of play?

Personnel concerns

As mentioned, what do do with Newton is the No. 1 priority. NFL.com media insider Ian Rapoport believes Newton will indeed be traded. He carries a team-high salary cap figure of $21.1 million, but Carolina will take only a $2 million hit in dead cap if he’s no longer in the team’s plans.

Freeing up $19 million will go a long way in making Carolina competitive in spending during free agency, should the front office choose to operate in such a manner. This franchise currently projects to have roughly $30 million in free money to spend, which doesn’t include inking its rookie class and/or extending players currently under contract. While the latter typically offers cap relief in the short term by kicking the can down the road, it still requires a commitment. And Carolina is married to Rhule for seven years, financially anyway. The Panthers are closer to being a playoff contender than not, and it isn’t going to take more than an offseason or two, if all is done properly. Rhule has proven to be adept at rebuilding in short order.

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In 2020, offensive free agents of note include starting left guard Daryl Williams and depth WR Jarius Wright — not exactly irreplaceable components. The Panthers have to improve an offensive line that allowed an unsustainable 58 sacks, which tied for the most in the league. In the 4-2 start to the year, this line surrendered only 16 sacks. There are plenty of factors at play in the downturn — inexperience, suspect starters, poor playcalling decisions. After all, in the final four games, Scott Turner was calling plays for the first time in his NFL career.

The retirement of star linebacker Luke Kuechly is a game-changer on defense, and cornerback James Bradberry is a free agent. Bloated contracts for Dontari Poe and Kawann Short should be of concern.

Shedding serious cap this offseason isn’t out of the question, and the 2020 starting lineup on both sides are poised to look much different than what we saw from this 5-11 team. Despite entering 2019 as the eighth-oldest roster in a year that was built up to contend now, this should become one of the youngest teams to match its coaching staff.

Offensive system expectations

Brady’s role as a passing game coordinator during LSU’s dominant 2019 season no doubt creates optimism, but it also brings serious question marks in his first year as a playcaller. The Tigers ran a blended system, which most are these days, and incorporated pro-style elements. This is what gamers should expect to see from the Panthers in 2020 — whether it will work well enough is yet to be seen.

Between Brady’s flexibility by claiming he doesn’t even have a system of his own, and Rhule’s past success with a ground-based RPO system, one can safely expect this will be the general idea of the offensive approach. Create confusion to take advantage of McCaffrey’s abilities in space, quick-hit passing to utilize the athletic traits of WRs D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, and keep defenses guessing as to what is next. Sound familiar? It’s basically the offense (conceptually, anyway) of Baltimore Ravens coordinator Greg Roman.

Contract stuff aside, a healthy Newton would be an awesome fit for this system. However, his shoulder/ankle injury history, plus the contract concerns, create uncertainty.

Don’t rule out this being a location for a possible return of Colin Kaepernick.

Fantasy football takeaway

There is too much at stake with the outcome of the quarterback decision to give any kind of rational valuation.

McCaffrey is the only player that should be viewed as a “system-proof” and be given the benefit of the doubt for 2020 drafts. Even still, he comes with risk after touching the ball an average of 364 times the past two years and coming off of what almost definitely will go down as a career season.

Moore and Samuel figure win the top two spots at wideout, and Ian Thomas has flashed a few times should he be the ultimate replacement for Olsen at tight end.

The most important aspect of this roster to watch obviously is quarterback, and this coaching staff has to decide if grooming Will Grier is the answer, or if Kyle Allen showed enough, assuming Newton is not in their plans. There’s always the draft or open market, as well.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy has turned to veteran playcaller Bill Lazor to lead the offense in 2020.

(Sam Greene/The Enquirer via USA TODAY NETWORK)

Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy’s pass offensive success under Andy Reid hasn’t thoroughly translated to the Windy City over two seasons, and in 2020, long-time NFL coach Bill Lazor will take over for Mark Helfrich as the new offensive coordinator.

Lazor’s immediate plan will focus on getting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to take a massive step forward with his command of the offense and overcome a penchant to screw up what should be the “easy plays.” While nothing is cake in the NFL, Trubisky has notoriously struggled to get the most out of what a defense hands him. He tends to make difficult scenarios seem easier than they should, and it all appears to come at the sacrifice of conventional advancements. Consistently being better will go a long way for how efficient and effective the Bears can be on offense from week to week. Improving his mechanics will go far in limiting wasted opportunities.

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Before looking ahead, it helps to understand how we came to this point in time. Nagy, as mentioned, is a student of Reid’s West Coast-based spread system, and while we have seen moments of Reid’s coaching genius bleed through into Nagy’s designs, putting it together on a weekly basis has been a real struggle.

Replacing Helfrich with Lazor feels like one of those moves out of a sense of urgency to make a move rather than give it one more try to improve with the continuity of having Trubisky in the same system for a third straight season. Keep in mind, Trubisky didn’t have extensive quarterback experience entering the NFL. It was not meant to be, and Lazor will get a chance, in conjunction with new quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to get Trubisky on track.

A former three-year starting signal-caller at Cornell, Lazor was once a quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia (2013) under the Chip Kelly regime. He doesn’t have a direct tie to Reid. However, he has worked with gifted minds in Mike Holmgren, Marvin Lewis, Joe Gibbs and Dan Reeves. While all of those men but Lewis cut their teeth on the offensive side of the ball, having the chance to learn defensive tendencies under the former Cincinnati Bengals head coach was a plus for Lazor’s development.

Despite all of the that experience under proven coaches, Lazor was unable to survive two full seasons in Miami as the offensive coordinator, getting fired Nov. 30, 2015. He’d become the quarterbacks coach in Cincinnati the next year and take over for the fired Ken Zampese in September of 2017. Lazor managed to make it through the two full seasons before being dismissed with the end of the Lewis regime in Cincy. Lazor sat out of football in 2019.

Coaching tendencies

Lazor likes to incorporate West Coast elements into a spread system, similarly to how Reid designs calls. The three-plus years of calling plays is an advantage, even though the results weren’t exciting. It is unclear how much of a role in actually calling plays and scripting game plans Lazor will have in relation to Nagy.

During the 2017 season, Lazor’s Bengals threw 57.5 percent of the offensive snaps, or the 12th-highest percentage of all teams. This number grew to 60.2 percent in 2018, ranking eighth. One upside to the increase in passing attempts was an extremely efficient backfield, and RB Joe Mixon led the AFC in rushing yardage.

In 2018, when Cincinnati ran the ball, 67 percent of the plays came from three-wide, one-TE sets, with 22 percent of the action being worked out of a two-tight end formation. The passing attack ran 79 percent of plays out of the 11 personnel grouping (three wide, 1 TE).

Table: Bill Lazor team rankings as offensive coordinator (lower number is better)

			Offense			Rushing Off					Passing Off
Year	Tm	Role	Yds	Pts	TO	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	FL	Att	Yds	TD	Int
2014	MIA	OC	14	11	13	22	12	14	2	19	12	17	12	8
2015	MIA	OC	26	27	8	32	23	16	9	2	17	19	19	11
2017	CIN	OC	32	26	19	29	31	28	29	22	25	27	12	11
2018	CIN	OC	26	17	5	26	21	16	8	1	18	24	16	18

A consistent theme is the need for efficiency from the running game to generate meaningful yardage, and despite being a pass-centric offense, the aerial yardage returns haven’t been impressive, either. Protecting the football has been a regular aspect of his teams.

Personnel changes

Right guard Rashaad Coward and his backup, Ted Larsen, are both set to become free agents in March, but Coward is of the restricted variety. The core of this team returns unscathed, and Chicago should not have to make major cuts to sign rookies and look at the open market. The offensive line will need to be improved after giving up 12th-most sacks (45) in 2019. Some of that can be done via coaching and playcalling. More concerning, perhaps, would be the 3.7 yards per carry averaged by this rushing game. It tied for third worst in the league, and it was quite apparent rookie David Montgomery needs the blocking to improve. He is an NFL-caliber talent but isn’t the type to create yardage on his own.

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An upgrade at tight end is a must. This offensive system is at its best when the position finds success. Trey Burton’s experience in a similar offense is encouraging, but he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. The same injury concerns go for Adam Shaheen. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bears make a bid to sign former Lazor tight end Tyler Eifert in free agency. Other options could include Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry.

Another receiver will help, but getting the most out of soon-to-be third-year wideout Anthony Miller will be the key. If he can stay healthy and play at his best, Allen Robinson will have a strong complementary target by his side. It will be intriguing to see the development of 2019 rookie WR Riley Ridley over the course of the upcoming offseason.

Backup quarterback Chase Daniel is a free agent and didn’t provide much of a spark when given the chance in 2020. Andy Dalton spent three years with Lazor in Cincinnati and is on the verge of being released. Could Chicago bring him in to compete with Trubisky, or at least help teach the system?

Fantasy football takeaway

As discussed, the theme of Lazor’s duties will center on getting the most out of Trubisky. Look for more short-area passing to get the ball out quicker and prevent him from having to do too much. Expect the Bears to let Trubisky utilize his mobility more than he has to date, and he could be sneaky in fantasy because of added value on the turf (think Josh Allen’s surprising value). Nevertheless, trusting all of it coming together in the first year is understandably a gamble most owners aren’t going to be keen on taking in 2020 fantasy drafts. Trubisky remains a low-end QB2 who will flash a few times at worst and start to show signs of being a fringe starter at his best.

An emphasis on the ground game could be in store, despite the limited utilization of the position in past stops. With a few tweaks, Chicago’s defense can get back on the right path.

Montgomery has RB2 potential and is a capable dual-threat back. Given the limited money tied up with him and Tarik Cohen, it’s not a crazy idea to think Chicago could trade for Arizona Cardinals back David Johnson. He and Montgomery offer similar skills, but at least Johnson has proven capable of playing at an elite level in the NFL. Much could change in this scenario before the dust settles. Presuming Montgomery is indeed the primary back in 2020, draft him as a flex and be prepared for another disappointing season.

Cohen should benefit from the move and is a PPR flex in traditional formats. Of course, a move, such as adding Johnson, would hamper this outlook.

At receiver, we witnessed Robinson return nicely on a WR3 or flex fantasy draft investment and post quality No. 2 stats in standard (No. 7 PPR). He finally started to show signs of his pre-ACL tear self. Even though there is always concern in changing offensive systems, it is clear Trubisky favors Robinson over all others.

Miller’s season didn’t start off well, and the 2019 second-year receiver struggled to overcome offseason rehab that lingered late into the summer. He finally picked up the pace from Weeks 11-15 to give a glimmer of hope that we’re poised to see a true breakout from the talented Memphis product. Keep in mind, he scored seven times as a 2018 rookie. Miller is a risk-reward decision as a No. 3 target come 2020 fantasy drafts.

Ridley didn’t really get a chance to showcase his abilities, landing only six catches as a rookie. The Georgia standout effectively red-shirted in 2019 and will be in the mix for an increased role in a three-wide base, as well as expanded packages. He’s no more than a late-round flier in conventional drafts at this stage, yet a strong summer could bump him up considerably.

There’s nothing of value to be found in the current crop of tight ends, and unless the Bears drastically upgrade the position, gamers can skip over this position for all intents and purposes. Track the personnel decisions before putting the final nail in this coffin.

With regards to Lazor being the right hire, his pedigree is impressive. One has to question whether the relative lack of results were more his fault or due to having inferior talent at his disposal.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Denver Broncos

Pat Shurmur brings a proven system and results to Denver’s young offense.

Sitting on what must already feel like a lukewarm seat, Denver Broncos head coach Vic Fangio turned the offense over to 21-year NFL coaching veteran Pat Shurmur after firing Rich Scangarello after his first season as a pro playcaller.

Shurmur, 54, coached tight ends, offensive linemen and quarterbacks from 1999-2008 during his first stint in Philadelphia for Andy Reid. It led to an offensive coordinator gig with the St. Louis Rams (2009-10) under Steve Spagunolo, which he managed to spin into the head coach of the Cleveland (2011-12).

Following Shurmur’s firing in Cleveland, the Eagles rehired him as the offensive coordinator, this time under Chip Kelly, and Shurmur was promoted to interim head coach for the regular-season finale after Kelly’s dismissal. Two years of coaching tight ends and coordinating the offense in Minnesota was parlayed into running the New York Giants (2018-19).

Offensive concepts and expectations

Shurmur having cut his teeth under renowned offensive minds in Reid and Kelly is reflective in his West Coast themes and creatively aggressive play designs. He consistently has involved tight ends and running backs in the aerial calls. The 2019 Giants ran three-wide 59 percent of the time on running plays, which is utilized to help keep defenses guessing since the passing game operated in this same “11 personnel” design a hearty 82 percent of the snaps.

The next highest percentage (12) passing plays came from the 12 grouping, which is a two-tight end base, whereas 26 percent of the rushing snaps came from this formation. Denver passed only 61 percent of the time from three-wide and ran 59 percent of its ground carries from the same formation for a more balanced approach. Of all offensive plays, 52 percent of Denver’s 2019 snaps came from 11 personnel, compared to a league-high 74 percent from the Giants.

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Expect the offense to push the ball down the field. Denver managed 46 completions of 20-plus yards in 2019, while New York posted 54. More impressively, the Giants ranked second behind the ultra-explosive Kansas City (the Reid connection) with 15 touchdown passes of 20 or more yards. KC tallied 19 of them.

Shurmur likes to set up the run with the pass when all is working properly, and he’s fond of utilizing play-action. The receiving route tree will focus heavily on crossing and clearing combinations, wheels, and ample shallow routes to serve as checkdowns. Look for a marked increase in short-area throws to help the offensive line not have to hold blocks as long and to get his QB into a rhythm.

Personnel changes

Denver has no notable free agents on offense, and the Broncos will have approximately the 11th-most salary-cap space of all teams entering the 2020 open market. They can save roughly $10 million with the release of Joe Flacco, assuming he passes a physical, and Von Miller’s deal is in dire need of being restructured. This is a young roster with plenty of starters returning after being battle-tested in 2018 and ’19.

The Broncos need to add a proven receiver to help Courtland Sutton after trading away Emmanuel Sanders in 2019. Free agency features several veteran names, including Sanders (improbable), A.J. Green (intriguing), Randall Cobb (uninspiring), Robby Anderson (too expensive?), Nelson Agholor (knows the system), Amari Cooper (probably sticking in Dallas) and Breshad Perriman (late-season star with upside).

The tight end position has an up-and-coming weapon in 2019 first-round pick Noah Fant, which bodes well for Shurmur’s history of utilizing the position in the aerial attack.

Table: Pat Shurmur’s offensive rankings (Lower the number the better)

			Offense			Rushing Off					Passing Off
Year	Tm	Role	Yds	Pts	TO	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	FL	Att	Yds	TD	Int
2009	STL	OC	29	32	27	22	20	32	11	22	16	28	29	28
2010	STL	OC	26	26	8	14	25	24	31	2	5	21	25	13
2011	CLE	HC	29	30	4	21	28	32	31	5	11	24	27	8
2012	CLE	HC	25	24	17	24	24	13	21	9	13	19	28	26
2013	PHI	OC	2	4	4	4	1	2	1	16	27	9	5	3
2014	PHI	OC	5	3	32	7	9	5	15	31	5	6	12	32
2015	PHI	OC/HC	12	13	29	11	14	10	21	28	6	12	20	26
2016	MIN	OC	28	23	7	25	32	26	32	24	12	18	21	2
2017	MIN	OC	11	10	3	2	7	7	23	7	21	11	12	2
2018	NYG	HC	17	16	11	29	24	16	10	8	9	11	21	12
2019	NYG	HC	23	18	30	29	19	22	7	32	9	18	5	25

Personnel deficiencies have plagued Shurmur at times in his coaching career, or at least enough to warrant the mentioning of it. The Broncos are a work-in-progress with several inexperienced key pieces, but it all goes through the development of 2019 rookie quarterback Drew Lock. Shurmur has a respectable history of helping develop quarterbacks, and while it hasn’t always worked out in his favor, the most recent example of success is Daniel Jones. QBs Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Nick Foles have enjoyed finer years in their otherwise mostly unassuming careers while under Shurmur’s tutelage.
A strong running game is paramount in making his system consistently dangerous, however. Regardless of strong quarterback play under Shurmur, he has enjoyed dynamic backs, such as Saquon Barkley, LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson and Dalvin Cook. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman aren’t on that level, but being serviceable will help keep defenses honest to give Lock a fighting chance.
One thing has been evident: Without playmakers across the board, Shurmur has struggled to consistently get the most out of inferior talent as a whole unit. We’ve seen strength in areas (Barkley, S-Jax, tight ends, etc.) from Shurmur offenses, and he has accentuated mediocre quarterbacks’ play, but his offensive designs have required better than average personnel to be routinely effective.

Table: Pat Shurmur’s offensive playcalling ratio (2015-19)

Rk	Year	Team	Ru Att	Ru Att/G	Pass Att	Pass Att/G	Plays	Plays/G	Run %	Pass %
16	2015	Philadelphia Eagles	442	27.6	623	38.9	1065	66.6	41.5%	58.5%
9	2016	Minnesota Vikings	380	23.8	588	36.8	968	60.5	39.3%	60.7%
28	2017	Minnesota Vikings	501	31.3	527	32.9	1028	64.3	48.7%	51.3%
5	2018	New York Giants	354	22	583	36	937	59	37.8%	62.2%
3	2019	New York Giants	362	23	607	38	969	61	37.4%	62.6%

The ranking column shows the order in which his offenses placed from the perspective of highest passing attempt percentage in relation to the field. In the last five years, 60 percent of his teams have placed in the top 10 for most passing attempts.
The 2017 Vikings didn’t pass much for two main reasons: Keenum is a game manager, and Mike Zimmer demands a high-volume rushing offense.
Shurmur’s two Giants teams each were in the top five, due in large part to having weak defenses that forced the offenses to play from behind. In Denver, the Broncos have a defense that is on the rise but needs more personnel pieces during the offseason. Defense is, after all, Fangio’s bread and butter.

Fantasy football takeaway

Lock needs more receivers, and the offensive line could stand to be upgraded. As previously mentioned, getting the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible will be a focus of the coaching designs. The jump in Year 1 under Shurmur could be substantial in fantasy, mainly because of the aggressive nature of how he calls games. Lock is a midrange QB2 with huge upside if the Broncos can add just one more talented pass-catching option. Expect on the Missouri standout to look like a stud a few weeks and struggle to be relevant in plenty of others.

Lindsay and Freeman are the presumed top backs, but there’s no guarantee either is entrenched in the lineup. This backfield could see an uptick in passing work in 2020. Last year, Lindsay (48 targets, 35 catches) and Freeman (50 targets, 43 catches) were heavily involved due to the lack of reliable receivers after the Sanders trade. Neither of them is an ideal fit for this spread system, but Freeman is a better receiver than many seem to recognize, and Lindsay continues to plug away enough to be heavily involved without another player (rookie?) being added to the mix. Long story short, this backfield will require a wait-and-see approach before a firm fantasy prognostication can be made.

Sutton is well on his way to playing like a true No. 1 receiver, unless he, for whatever reason, struggles to fit into this system — seems unlikely given his maturation through two NFL systems in as many years. His floor is high, and Sutton’s outlook is as bright as any third-year starter’s could be in a fresh situation. Think WR2 for now in fantasy.

Maybe a new system will do wonders for getting DaeSean Hamilton’s promising career back on the right track. He regressed under Scangarello and is going to be a wild card under Shurmur.

Fant landed 40 of his 67 targets as a rookie in 2019, going for 562 yards and three touchdowns, averaging an awesome 14.1 yards per grab. Of the top 25 in fantasy points, he was No. 2 in yards per reception, behind the New Orleans Saints’ Jared Cook (16.4). Fant finished with the 14th-most PPR points among tight ends who made at least 12 appearances. Given the emphasis placed on the position in Shurmur’s offense, it’s not crazy to envision Fant doubling his 40 receptions as a sophomore. Even splitting the difference would put him in the conversation of being a top-five tight end if he can sustain such ease of yardage generation.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Washington Redskins

Wholesale changes in Washington’s organization has the scent of optimism in the air for the first time in ages.

After a nine-year run with the Carolina Panthers, Ron Rivera replaces both fired head coach Jay Gruden and interim Bill Callahan. Two Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year Awards and a Super Bowl loss later, Rivera hit the open market after a dismissal of his own following a 5-7 start.

Agreeing to coach the Redskins comes with more scrutiny than Rivera ever encountered with Carolina, and he’ll have to contend with the constant meddling of team owner Daniel Snyder.

Scott Turner has joined the staff as the offensive coordinator, and Jack Del Rio came aboard as the mastermind of the defensive side of the ball. Before we delve into the expectations, here’s what the Washington team faces in free agency:

Notable free agents

OG Brandon Scherff
RB Chris Thompson
RB Adrian Peterson
QB Case Keenum

Scherff quietly put together a Pro Bowl season, which ended on the Reserve/Injured list due to elbow and shoulder injuries — the latter requiring surgery. It is anyone’s guess as to how Washington handles his situation.

Thompson is an oft-injured third-down back whose chance with the Redskins came solely because of the fired Gruden, and it will be interesting to see how much the new regime values Thompson’s skill set.

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Speaking of valuing past contributions, Peterson continues to play at a respectable, effective level and wants to extend his career. Perhaps he has enough good will in the Snyder camp to survive the coaching and front office moves. Given Derrius Guice’s inability to stay on the field, and an unanswered question in running back Bryce Love (knee), this backfield could go in a number of ways. Does Washington try to lure a free agent, such as Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Kenyan Drake or Derrick Henry?

Keenum doesn’t really factor into the plans of the future, but it’s fair to note Rivera won’t automatically hand the starting job to 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins, even though no one really should believe that comment. Quarterback Alex Smith (leg) remains under contract, although his return appears to be a long shot. Releasing Smith would blow up Washington’s salary cap ($32.2 million in dead money).

None of that addresses what will happen with disgruntled left tackle Trent Williams. Expect an earnest effort to rebuild the relationship as Rivera wants to see the star blocker in uniform for 22020. No Bruce Allen helps ease the tensions a good deal.

Washington is projected to have approximately $42 million to spend (expected $199 million cap) and could attract more proven talent with Rivera’s resume serving as perceived stability from a franchise that has been anything but enticing in recent times. The cap savings for releasing LB Ryan Kerrigan is $11.7 million, should the brass choose to go that direction, and cutting former Rivera standout cornerback Josh Norman would free up $12.5 million.

Scott Turner’s approach

The son of former NFL and Washington head coach Norv Turner, the 37-year-old comes over from Carolina after he served as Rivera’s quarterbacks coach in 2018 and ’19. He previously was a quality control coach for Rivera (2011-12), as well as being a receivers coach in Cleveland and a quarterbacks coach for the Minnesota Vikings over a three-year span.

As a child, Turner spent every free moment watching and learning from his father. This will mark the first time in his blossoming coaching career as a full-fledged offensive coordinator after a four-game window to close out Carolina’s season as the interim OC after Rivera was fired. It’s unfair to hold any of the stats against him, because the Panthers’ quarterback situation was abysmal, and the defense consistently failed the offense. Wipe the slate clean and give him the benefit of the doubt with a full offseason and fresh cast with which to work.

While Scott came up the hard way through the coaching ranks, not automatically riding his father’s coattails, it would be foolish to believe he hasn’t absorbed serious influences from his dad’s style of calling plays. The elder Turner has been known for a potent running game that relies on establishing the ground attack in order to create success via vertical passing.

The running backs are poised to haul in plenty of passes, and play-action throws will be a staple in trying to catch the defense out of position. Turner will look to create plays with unique, aggressive concepts and utilize the athleticism of his playmakers in various ways (see WR Curtis Samuel rushing more frequently as an example).

Tight ends have long been a focal point of the Turner family designs, and it’s a position that has plagued Washington in recent years. Vernon Davis is a 36-year-old impending free agent, whose season ended on the shelf, and Jordan Reed is arguably the least durable player in the entire NFL.

Fantasy football assessment

Cam Newton found immediate success in his first year with Turner as his positional coach, and the target is to fast-track Haskins entering his second pro season. The questions along the line, in the backfield, at tight end, and regarding receivers behind Terry McLaurin stepping up creates considerable downside for Haskins. He profiles as no better than a midrange backup in the best-case scenario.

There is too much uncertainty in the backfield at present time to make any kind of decisive conclusions. Guice has RB2 potential, provided the line plays well and he escapes the injury bug. Love is a wild card after missing his entire rookie year as he rehabbed a torn ACL suffered late in his collegiate career. Peterson and Thompson should be considered outsiders looking in until further notice.

McLaurin’s route-running skills and vertical ability will fit in nicely with Turner’s preferred designs. There is legitimate potential for a WR1 season out of the soon-to-be second-year receiver. He’s more safely drafted as a high-upside No. 2 given the major changes around him and playing in his third system in the last three years, dating back to Ohio State.

Steven Sims Jr. flashed game-breaking skills and an adept level of awareness in the red zone late in 2019. He will contend for the primary slot role in the offseason.

Wideout Paul Richardson has been a disappointment after landing a five-year deal worth $40 million in 2018. His release would cost the Redskins $6 million in dead money.

Kelvin Harmon, a big-bodied 2019 rookie, will be given a long look in the offseason, and there are a few receivers on the market this March who figure to be in the mix as “pieces of the puzzle” types.

Tight end is anyone’s guess with Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, Tyler Eifert and Hunter Henry being the most appealing names. The draft is a possibility, and Reed remains under contract for 2020 at this point.

On defense, the addition of Del Rio to Rivera’s staff illustrates an emphasis on improving this side of the ball, but the personnel is likely to face significant changes. Having the No. 2 overall pick that could (should) be spent on Ohio State defensive end Chase Young helps, but one rookie isn’t going to make Washington a fantasy stalwart in 2020 after finishing 18th in conventional scoring this season. There’s enough talent here to treat Washington as a matchup play or a second defense if that’s your thing on draft day (hint: it shouldn’t ever be anyone’s thing on draft day in conventional leagues).

NFL Betting Guide – NFL Divisional Playoffs: Odds, lines, spreads, picks and best bets

Game-by-game NFL Divisional Playoff breakdowns, with NFL betting odds, lines, predictions, picks and betting tips for each game.

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NFL Playoffs continue this weekend, as we’re down to eight teams in the chase to be this season’s Super Bowl Champion. SportsbookWire’s NFL Playoff Betting Guide is at your service, full of NFL odds, lines, spreads, game-by-game predictions, picks and best-bet selections to help you make the best NFL sports bets for the week.

Be sure to also check out our recommendations around parlay picks to cash in on during the NFL Playoffs:

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers – 4:35 p.m. ET – NBC

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens – 8:15 p.m. ET – CBS

NFL Divisional Playoffs BetMGM Special

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) IF ANY NFL team scores a touchdown during the NFL’s divisional playoff rounds. Easy win. Win now at BetMGM!

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Sunday, January 12, 2020

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – 3:05 p.m. ET – CBS

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers – 6:40 p.m. ET – FOX

Now that you have the skinny on what to do with each game, visit BetMGM to place a bet on your favorite matchup(s) now.

For additional sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com now and for a complete set of today’s live odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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