Tag: Fantasy Football

Pre-NFL draft fantasy football dynasty league rookie rankings

Fantasy football dynasty rookie rankings ahead of the 2020 NFL draft.

Although we do not yet know which teams the rookies entering the NFL in 2020 will be playing for, doing creating rankings for dynasty leagues now is still quite useful. Doing so gives us a baseline, apart from landing spot, for the relative potential and upside of these players.

If, for example, we have a particular player as a highly-rated, first-round talent in this mock draft, we must be careful not to bump him up our board too far if he lands in what is perceived as an excellent landing spot. For example, last year many had N’Keal Harry as a B or C player entering the NFL Draft, yet many bumped him way up their boards when he was drafted by the Patriots. Conversely, A.J. Brown was knocked way back to the end of the first round of most rookie drafts because he landed on the Titans, but that looks to have been a mistake. How each player will pan out long-term is still certainly unknown, but such large shifts based on landing spots are one of the primary reasons players get both over-drafted and under-drafted.

Below you’ll find my top 36 rookie players entering the NFL in the form of a mock draft. These are the players I see making a huge fantasy impact. The rankings are based on what these players have shown on tape, what was seen and learned from the combine, and how their skills and athletic talent translate to the NFL level.

Let’s check out Round 1:

AP Photo/Alonzo Adams

Round 1

1.1 – Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor – Taylor is a unique blend of speed, power, and vision. He is not exactly Saquon or Gurley, but he has elements of both in his game. I believe he will have an immediate impact and will start for whatever team drafts him from Week 1.

1.2 – Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb – Lamb has a bit of DeAndre Hopkins to his game, but he actually looks to be a more explosive and sudden as an athlete. Both have ridiculous leaping ability and great hands. Lamb is a cornerstone piece for your dynasty team.

1.3 – Georgia RB DeAndre Swift – Swift is smaller than Taylor but has excellent quickness and long speed, to go along with great balance. His NFL coaches will work on him to bounce it outside less, but that is nitpicking, as he is ready and able to be a three-down back right away.

1.4 – LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire – CEH looks like Ray Rice, with a short and stout frame. He also is excellent at catching the ball and is extremely sudden, both traits Rice also had. If his coaching staff trusts him in pass protection, which is his only real weakness on tape, he could be a three-down threat soon.

1.5 – Baylor WR Denzel Mims – Mims was in my top-five wide receivers entering the combine. As I watched his tape I was blown away by his combination of speed, size, leaping ability, and overall athleticism. Then he proved it in a bigger way than I imagined in Indianapolis with an excellent performance in drills and workouts.

1.6 –  Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy – Jeudy is a phenomenal route runner, and is excellent at finding space after he catches the ball with his quickness and start-stop ability. He also had good long speed at the Combine (4.45 40-yard dash). The biggest knock on him is that he’s under 200 pounds and doesn’t play that physically, but that hasn’t stopped players like Odell Beckham from thriving.

1.7 – Florida State RB Cam Akers – Akers is difficult to pin down because he played on a poor Florida St. offense, but he looks to be an athletic freak. He also looks to have good burst, balance, and vision on runs where it’s possible to evaluate him. If he lands in the right spot and gets a chance to carry the load, he could become an NFL stud.

1.8 – TCU WR Jalen Reagor – Speaking of athletic freaks, Reagor is another one. His Combine numbers as a whole were ridiculous, and many thought he’d be faster than his 4.47 based on what they saw on tape. He has Tyreek Hill-upside if he ends up with a top quarterback.

1.9 – Arizona State RB Eno Benjamin – He reminds me of Devin Singletary. He doesn’t look the biggest or the fastest, but he is a smart runner and takes what is there. He has great balance and vision and runs with a rugged, “I will win” mentality.

1.10 – Vanderbilt RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Vaughn and Benjamin are very close for me, and fairly similar prospects. Vaughn also has a rugged running style, with good vision and balance. He is not as fluid when he must change directions, but still has a ton of potential to be a three-down back.

1.11 – Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk – Aiyuk popped on film for his combination of short-area quickness and long speed. He also showed the ability to play both out wide and in the slot, and seems to be a perfect fit for today’s NFL. I think he has an immense upside in fantasy football.

1.12 – Liberty WR Antonio Gandy-Golden – This guy ran a 4.6 at the Combine, so many will think he is not that athletic. Nothing could be more incorrect; he is an incredibly well-rounded athlete who is quick and extremely physical after the catch. He also has the ridiculous body control to go get jump balls. He could become a top NFL receiver.

That first-round shows how stocked this draft is with top running back and wide receiver talent. It included five receivers and seven backs. We will see our first quarterback and tight end in round 2.

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What’s next for Todd Gurley after being released by the Rams?

Which teams are expected to show the most interest in Gurley?

(Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports)

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley is being released in a move that allows the team to avoid paying him $10.5 million in what would have been guaranteed money as of March 20, even though it will result in a $2.9 million hit against LA’s 2020 salary cap.

His arthritic knee was apparent in a visible lack of explosiveness in 2019, which is bound to rule out many RB-needy teams from showing serious interest in Gurley. Compounding the problem, teams aren’t bringing in players for physicals right now, so unless something is worked out with his local medical evaluators, Gurley may be forced to wait longer than most remaining free agents before signing.

Teams that really could use him will have to take a long look at last year’s game tape. Gurley showed his sniffer for the end zone still works, but the dynamic plays were practically non-existent, and his receiving involvement was deliberately capped. He may be forced to take a one-year or incentive-laden deal, and don’t completely discount the idea of Gurley not being signed at all before Week 1. It may seem crazy, but we don’t know what kind of money he will request vs. how teams view his market to be at this time.

Presuming no team currently views him as “the man” anymore, Gurley will be asked to share reps. His versatility allows teams to utilize him as a full-time back on limited reps, a situational rusher (goal line, for example), or a pass-catching specialist. One easily can imagine his intent is to sign with a contender, as well.

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Buffalo Bills: Gurley would be a good mentor and change of pace for the more explosive Devin Singletary. Touchdowns galore would be in Gurley’s forecast as a Bill.

Kansas City Chiefs: Gurley could give the Chiefs what they thought LeSean McCoy was capable of delivering in 2019. Complementing Damien Williams is a need, but at what price?

Detroit Lions: Pairing him with the injury-prone Kerryon Johnson is somewhat risky but isn’t outlandish for a team in dire need of a consistent rushing attack.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs could be one of the leading contenders, although Melvin Gordon is a safer option with similar upside.

Miami Dolphins: Even after signing Jordan Howard, running back remains a moderate concern for an offense craving additional weaponry.

Atlanta Falcons: This one intrigues me a fair amount. Atlanta is arguably a contender with a few breaks going its way, and the backfield needs to be addressed. Cheaper and faster is probably how it will be done, though.

Of those teams, Buffalo would be the best-case scenario for Gurley’s fantasy football prospects.

Fantasy football outlook

As mentioned, he could help PPR gamers if a team chooses to run Gurley less and throw more passes his way. It stands to reason a player of his pedigree around the stripe should be relegated to such a role, perhaps exclusively.

We can speculate six ways to Sunday, but the reality boils down to this: If last year’s Gurley is the best we’re ever going to see again from him, regardless of the team, he is physically capped at being an inconsistent RB2 whose game is overly reliant on scoring touchdowns.

Fantasy football outlook for Colts QB Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers should be a viable streaming candidate with the Colts.

By 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the Indianapolis Colts will officially be allowed to announce the contract agreement with veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, which is set to have massive implications in real football and fantasy football.

The signing of Rivers shows the Colts know just how bad their passing attack was in 2019. For fantasy football managers, that meant dealing with the irrelevancy of studs like T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and even Jack Doyle.

But how will Rivers impact the offense now? In terms of a fantasy football outlook, it could yield positive results for the skill players on the offense and even potentially bring Rivers back into the fold of relevancy.

Rivers suffered a major setback in 2019. His 23 touchdowns to 20 interceptions hurt fantasy managers more than it helped them and despite having a plethora of weapons around him, Rivers showed decline in arm strength, decision-making and consistency.

He wound up finishing as the QB16 on the year and only finished inside the top-12 in four of his games. He wasn’t even a streamable asset for the majority of the season.

That said, this new scenery might just be what Rivers needs. Frank Reich’s offense is deeply rooted in the West Coast system, preferring to stretch the field horizontally while taking calculated shots down the field. At this point in Rivers’ career, Reich’s system is a near-perfect match. Not to mention, there is a big history between the two, which should translate to a smooth transition.

The Colts have weapons for Rivers to work with and the potential to add more. Hilton will be his WR1. Doyle will be his safety-valve tight end. There is a lot of hope that Nyheim Hines will have an Austin Ekeler type impact in the passing game.

Throw in the elite offensive line and potential for explosive additions in the draft, and Rivers finds himself in a great situation.

Now, this doesn’t mean Rivers is going to be an automatic QB1. Those days are likely behind him. There is also a chance he sees a small decline in volume. Rivers has averaged 580.5 pass attempts per season since the start of the 2014 campaign.

The Colts only had 513 attempts as a team in 2019. Could that be more of an indication of the quarterback play? Sure, the numbers were much higher with Andrew Luck under center. But the addition of Rivers doesn’t automatically mean he will be approaching the 600 attempt threshold.

Still, it should be strong enough to make him a reliable asset in fantasy football.

Rivers isn’t going to be a league-winner. His days of being a locked and loaded QB1 are behind him. But this change in scenery and offense will help him immensely.

Once the Colts add a few more weapons, Rivers will be a low-end QB1 with weekly streaming upside.

Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers immediately improves his fantasy football value

At 43 years old in the 2020 season, does Tom Brady have enough left for one more elite fantasy season?

(David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to sign former New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to an undisclosed deal that will pay him at least $30 million per year, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. According to his sources, the only thing holding up the finalization of the contract is TB12 making it official that he’ll be a member of the TB Bucs.

The pluses for are huge from a fantasy football perspective. New England has far more question marks going into the summer months, when it comes to offensive personnel, and the talent disparity is readily evident. Tampa Bay’s wide receivers are arguably the best in the business, led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Free-agent wideout Breshad Perriman could return, as well, after showing he can get it done late last season. Toss in tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate to create one of the most dangerous passing games in league.

Brady, who’ll be 43 years old come Week 1, has lost a smidge of his deep-ball ability, but his accuracy remains surgical, and there’s more football knowledge between those years than anyone can imagine. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians loves to sling the ball, but he may need to manage Brady’s arm reps, at least in practice. It begs the question about a trustworthy checkdown. Brady at his best has had slot guys like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker that he can throw to in his sleep, and this team’s personnel is geared toward Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” vertical mentality of driving the ball down the field.

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The six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback will play behind a quality offensive line, ranked seventh by ProFootballFocus.com. Right tackle Demar Dotson is a free agent and is hardly irreplaceable. The position is deep in the draft, and there are a few respectable free agents available if Dotson doesn’t return. The interior combination of center Ryan Jensen and left guard Ali Marpet combined to rank as the second-best duo for pass protection up the middle, per PFF.

Running back is in dire need of an upgrade. Peyton Barber is a free agent, and Ronald Jones was hit or miss last season. The draft or free agency could turn around the fortunes of this running game in a hurry, though. The running game doesn’t need to be elite, although a reliable backfield is the best way to help keep Brady’s arm from falling off … if the Bucs win it all in 2020 with the GOAT throwing it 650-plus times, something tells me Arians won’t care in hindsight. For the record, Brady threw 613 passes vs. the 626 Jameis Winston tossed for the Bucs last year.

The system itself is likely to be tailored to Brady’s preferences for methodical passing, slowing matriculating up the field with checkdowns to backs, underneath routes to the slot receivers, and chain-moving throws to the tight end position. Arians’ offenses never have been great for tight ends, and Howard was an unmitigated disaster most of 2019. Brate was serviceable went called upon.

Arians has worked with marquee quarterbacks before, including Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning, and he resurrected Carson Palmer’s career. Arians is known for his creativity in the passing game, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has received praise for his hand in the explosive system. There’s plenty to like about the combination of these coaches and Brady’s talents.

Tampa Bay has an up-and-coming defense under coordinator Todd Bowles, and two teams in this division are trending the wrong way. New Orleans will be the primary competition for Brady’s Bucs. Outside of two AFC powerhouses, Brady’s former conference is wide open. It will be much tougher to succeed in the NFC’s parity-laced talent distribution.

Fantasy football outlook

At 43 years old in the 2020 season, does Brady have enough left for one more elite fantasy season? He finished 14th last year in what surely can be classified as a down season. The weaponry has dramatically improved with Brady’s move, and the 2019 iteration of this team posted the second-best fantasy football passer numbers in the league.

Fantasy football drafters should bump Brady up into the lower tier of No. 1 fantasy passers, although it would be foolish to not add a top-flight backup in case he proves to be mortal.

One thing should be for certain in this situation: Never underestimate the cavernous chip on Brady’s shoulder.

Philip Rivers joins the Indianapolis Colts, maximizing his fantasy football value

Where does Philip Rivers fit into fantasy football plays after signing with the Colts?

In what quite possibly was the worst-kept secret in the NFL, Philip Rivers is joining the Indianapolis Colts. It was a natural fit with connections dating back to his days in San Diego where head coach Frank Reich was his positional coach and playcaller, and Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni was a quarterbacks coach.

There is so much to like about the situation. Rivers has arguably the best offensive line in the league now. It ranked 11th in pass protection and second in run blocking last year, according to ProFootballFocus.com. Marlon Mack is among the most dynamic rushers in the NFL, and fellow running back Nyheim Hines offers a dangerous weapon out of the backfield. Playing in a dome never hurts the stats, either.

Indianapolis has T.Y. Hilton as one of the league’s most dynamic receivers, and second-year wideout Parris Campbell stands to be much better with a year under his belt. He faced great adversity in 2019 as a rookie, which tends to make players mature faster. Tight end Jack Doyle is far from elite but has serviceable traits in the checkdown game as well as around the stripe. Expect another receiver to be signed, drafted or landed via trade. The offense needs someone with reliable hands over the middle of the field who can challenge for clutch grabs on third downs.

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Rivers is 38 years old and lacked a little mustard on his fastball last season. He knows the window is closing quickly, which can tend to create extra pressure. Indianapolis is in a rather capable defensive division, and there’s no guarantee Rivers will have strong chemistry with Hilton.

Fantasy football outlook

Rivers is entering the riskiest fantasy season of his career since becoming the starter. Interestingly, though, there really wasn’t a clearly better situation for him. Tampa Bay would have been close, but the line isn’t quite as good, and there’s no obvious running game to rely on. Throwing it 50 times again isn’t how Rivers will maximize his fantasy football returns. At 38, with a questionable arm, no one wants to see him sling it that much anyway.

The problem that haunted him at times was being forced to do too much for a 2019 Los Angeles Chargers team that was out of sorts all season thanks to poor line play, injuries, and the ramifications of a Melvin Gordon hold out. In fact, doing too much has been a consistent theme when things haven’t gone well for Rivers over his 15 years in the NFL. As with most of his career, fantasy footballers will be resigned to accepting the bad with the good when drafting the vet. Rivers will light it up some weeks and toss multiple picks the next.

We know he’s tough as nails, and Rivers still played at a high enough level in 2019 to get the job done. Never underestimate his competitiveness. Unless Indianapolis lands a can’t-miss rookie receiver or coaxes a proven veteran into the mix, Rivers remains a better reserve passer in conventional fake leagues. He will offer starting utility with the right matchups and can maintain last year’s No. 13 overall fantasy quarterback value by staving off Father Time one more season.

Dolphins signing Jordan Howard creates a fantasy football opportunity

(Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports) Running back Jordan Howard’s NFL career began with a pair of strong seasons and one unimpressive year for the Chicago Bears before he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. He scored 32 offensive …

(Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports)

Running back Jordan Howard‘s NFL career began with a pair of strong seasons and one unimpressive year for the Chicago Bears before he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. He scored 32 offensive touchdowns in three and half seasons, which is nothing to scoff at for fantasy football purposes.

It wasn’t always pretty, though. The versatile running back never seemed to fit into Matt Nagy’s offense in the Windy City, but then the move to Philly created a head-scratcher due to the same general offensive system being in place. Prior to a lingering ankle injury, which cut his season to only nine games in 2019, Howard was showing signs of his pre-2018 self. His yards-per-carry average rebounded to a respectable 4.4, and Howard’s touchdown efficiency rating improved to a personal-best 19.8 carries per score. He is still only 25 years old entering Week 1.

Table: Jordan Howard career stats (2016-19)

Year
Team
Gm
Att
Yards
Avg.
TD
Targ.
Rec
Yards
Avg.
TD
PPR
PPR/Gm
2016
Chicago Bears
15
252
1,313
5.2
6
50
29
298
10.3
1
232.1
15.5
2017
Chicago Bears
16
276
1,120
4.1
9
32
23
125
5.4
0
201.5
12.6
2018
Chicago Bears
16
250
935
3.7
9
27
20
145
7.3
0
182
11.4
2019
Philadelphia Eagles
9
119
525
4.4
6
14
10
69
6.9
1
111.4
12.4

In Miami, the current competition for touches is scant. There is little doubt the Dolphins will address the position one way or another to complement Howard, likely inking someone whose focus is the passing game. In the event this isn’t the case — which would be surprising — Howard is “the guy” in an offense that intends to run it. He still should be viewed as the primary back when someone else is added.

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Miami has a defense that has improved in the offseason, but Howard’s carries will come behind an offensive line that absolutely needs to get better. Veteran playcaller Chan Gailey came out of retirement to help lead a youthful offense that has a well-seasoned Ryan Fitzpatrick currently tabbed to start under center. There still plenty of moving pieces that will need to be accounted for in the coming weeks, so keeping one’s expectations in check is wise.

Fantasy football outlook

It’s all about understanding the situation and the expectations. We’re looking at a ground-up rebuild that began last year and will continue for at least another offseason. Gailey’s offensive experience helps, and his willingness to mold the system to the team’s talent shouldn’t be overlooked.

Miami will not always be able to do what they want on offense, and it will result in a detrimental shift away from Howard at times. He also has a few things to prove on his own, so “intriguing” is the best way of describing is fantasy football forecast. The AFC East is a tough division from a defensive perspective, too. His game isn’t the most explosive, and while he is a capable receiver, there are real limitations to his ability in this area of the offensive designs.

Despite the drawbacks, it is all about opportunities for Howard. Monitor the moves made along the line and at wide receiver. Having safety in mind suggests Howard is somewhere in the RB3/flex conversation when composing a roster, and his track record offers hope for No. 2 production in traditional scoring formats. He will come at a fair or even bargain price in most settings.

Fantasy football reaction: Stefon Diggs traded to the Buffalo Bills

Disgruntled receiver Stefon Diggs was granted his trade wish, heading to the Buffalo Bills.

After voicing frustration with his role in 2019, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs posted a cryptic message on social media during the opening hours of free agency, and he eventually was indeed dealt to the Buffalo Bills for draft picks.

We will investigate the prospects of Minnesota’s fantasy football receivers in a future article. Today’s focus is on Diggs’ role with the Bills. Buffalo clearly has shown dedication to improve the talent around quarterback Josh Allen dating back to last offseason. WRs John Brown and Cole Beasley were free-agent additions to the Bills a year ago, and both played well throughout the year. Brown turns 30 this year, and Beasley’s game is rather one-dimensional. While serviceable, neither player has that coveted x-factor.

Entering 2019, Diggs was more of a glorified possession guy than anything, although he displayed the ability to shake free as the New Orleans Saints can attest. Last season, however, the Maryland product landed only 63 balls in 15 games but went for 17.9 yards per grab. His game in Minnesota has proven to be inconsistently productive, and most of his body of work points to him profiling as a WR2 in need of a standout opposite Diggs. Buffalo doesn’t have that going for them, so he’s going to be tasked with stepping up his game.

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The Bills have a talented running back in Devin Singletary, and the offensive line is sound. Young tight end Dawson Knox displayed potential as a rookie and has plenty of upside. The defense is among the best in the business, and the run-first system suggests Diggs doesn’t have sheer target volume on his side. Unlike 2018’s heavily utilized season (102-1,021-9), Diggs showed that doesn’t matter to sustain success. He posted career-best yardage in ’19 under a run-oriented offensive command from head coach Mike Zimmer.

Fantasy football takeaway

Diggs, 26, is prone to spurts of elite play and then disappearing. He has done it several times with Minnesota in multiple offenses. In Buffalo, he won’t have a roof over his head in the winter months, but he’s used to cold climates in general. The outlook is somewhere in the No. 2 PPR receiver territory as a ceiling and a consistently playable flex in any format.

Some fantasy footballers are bound to overvalue Diggs. While he does have a reasonable degree of potential to exceed expectations, Diggs comes with nearly as much of a chance to disappoint.

What is Hayden Hurst’s fantasy football worth with the Atlanta Falcons?

The former first-rounder gets a shot at resurrecting his NFL career at age 27 and making noise in fantasy football leagues.

There is no obvious coaching connection from Hayden Hurst in Baltimore to Atlanta in 2020, but the need for a tight end was real after the loss of Austin Hooper to the Cleveland Browns in free agency.

There’s really nothing of consequence to evaluate yet from the Baltimore Ravens perspective, since the haul for the former first-round choice is draft picks, so we’ll look exclusively at how he fits in with the Dirty Birds in 2020.

A quick summary of Hurst’s career shows a foot surgery that derailed his rookie season in 2018 and fellow second-year tight end Mark Andrews overtaking him on the depth chart prior to the 2019 campaign. Hurst, despite entering his third year in the league, is set to turn 27 in August, although he’s mostly untested as a pro.

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Hooper saw 97 targets in 2019 and 88 the prior year, albeit in a different system. Somewhere in that range can be expected for Hurst, provided he stays healthy. A pass-catching tight end from South Carolina, Hurst’s blocking skills are nothing to turn your nose at, either. He is more of an effort guy, but the same could be said for Hooper and not be too far from the mark.

Competition for touches will be a factor of concern, as it was with Hurst’s predecessor, but 80 targets would place him 12th among 2019 tight ends. For comparison, Travis Kelce led the way with 136 looks. It also works in Hurst’s favor in a relative sense. He has no history as a top weapon in an offense, and no one knows 1) if he could hold up to it 2) if he has the mental makeup for in-game pressure at this level. Hurst won’t have to worry about either of those things in Atlanta. He’s efficient and able to strike down the field (8.7 yards per target ranked 7th), so those factors alone make this an intriguing opportunity.

In 2019, 20.6 percent of his snaps came from the slot, and Hurst ranked sixth in the league with a 90.6 percent reception rate for catchable passes, according to PlayerProfiler.com.

Fantasy football outlook

“Sleeper” will be a term thrown around a great deal for Hurst, and he’s in a unique opportunity to produce borderline TE1 numbers each week with a fraction of the involvement of some positional peers. Casual fantasy football players aren’t as likely keen to his best attributes — reliable hands, body control with large frame (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) — and that can be used to your advantage.

Hurst is a fair gamble after two years of limited action (43 total catches, 512 yards, three scores). There are smart gambles in fantasy football drafting plans, and there are foolish risks. All signs point to Hurst being the former this upcoming selection season. Draft him as a No. 2 with upside in conventional formats, and he has slightly greater worth in non-PPR settings.

Fantasy football blockbuster: DeAndre Hopkins-David Johnson trade

DeAndre Hopkins is now a Cardinal, and David Johnson is a Texan. The memes will be fun. Fantasy football will be … different.

The Houston Texans have acquired one-year wonder running back David Johnson and change for arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in DeAndre Hopkins. Every surprised-face emoji in the book doesn’t do justice to the collective shock around the fantasy football world right now.

The two sides of the deal break down as follows:

(Christopher Hanewinckel, USA TODAY Sports)

What Arizona gets

Nuk has proven to be successful with a mobile quarterback, posting elite numbers while paired with Deshaun Watson. As a player, Arizona lands:

  • Possibly the best combination of receiver and blocker in the NFL
  • The surest hands in the game for quarterback Kyler Murray
  • A real heir apparent to Larry Fitzgerald beyond 2020
  • The ability to unleash the true Air Raid system

At only 27 years old, Hopkins is in the prime of his career. He has missed two career games, despite nagging injuries in recent times, but his grit is apparent even when I don’t wear my glasses.

There’s no need to rehash all of the specific stats posted by Hopkins in his career. His fantasy ranking among PPR wide receivers speaks for itself:

  • 5th in 15 games in 2019
  • 1st in 2018 (16 games)
  • 1st in 2017 (15 games)

Hopkins will remain among the best fantasy football options, regardless of positions, and is a lock in the first round of PPR drafts. The biggest winner is Murray, and he goes from being an erratic QB1 whose legs bailed him out a great deal to a second-year passer on the verge of exploding.

The transition tagging of running back Kenyan Drake means he’ll be “the guy” in the backfield but share touches with Chase Edmonds. As a result, the Cardinals are off of the hook for DJ’s ridiculous contract — money that could  bolster the defense and O-line. These moves ultimately suggest the Air Raid will be carpet-bombing its competition in 2020.

(Matt Kartozian, USA TODAY Sports)

A view from Houston’s side

What. The. $%@#.

Johnson had one insanely productive year in 2016 and then fractured his wrist in the opener of the following season, and he hasn’t been the same guy since. Is he nervous to take a shot? Did the fantasy community overvalue his talent based on one otherworldly fantasy season? Was he a poor fit for last year’s Arizona offense? A blend of all is most likely the case.

Fantasy footballers should have limited confidence in Johnson as anything more than a weak RB2, but one has to wonder if they will see anything close to that level of play. Carlos Hyde checked in as a competent second back in 2019, and Houston’s suspect passing game without Hopkins means more attention will be focused on the backfield. (Hyde turning down a deal to return may tell a more interesting tale after today’s trade, but that’s a story for another time.)

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Speaking of those receivers, one has to assume the Texans intend to add a stable veteran to fill the void of Hopkins being dealt, but there’s also a slim chance of landing a wideout in a trade. Rolling with what we know, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee are the top wideouts in Houston right now. Yikes.

Houston could be angling toward a power-running approach and help make up some of the target loss with the versatile Johnson, as well as throw more to the tight end position. Fuller staying healthy is a gamble no one should be inclined to make, yet the math suggests he is bound to play a full season sooner or later. Coutee has flashed but couldn’t secure a top-three spot last year when Fuller was out, and Stills is a complementary piece entering the decline of his athleticism.

Watson’s fantasy value tanks to barely startable right now, but it is subject to change if some in the conversation of Hopkins’ skill set comes into the mix (perhaps a trade for Odell Beckham Jr. or a signing of Antonio Brown). It seems like a wash, at best, if not a downgrade to throw a bunch of money at Amari Cooper when Nuk already was under contract. Any which way one looks at the situation, it definitely feels like there’s more to come for Houston.

Austin Hooper’s fantasy football value with the Cleveland Browns

What should gamers expect from Hooper as a member of the Browns?

(Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports)

The top free-agent tight end on the market, former Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper wasted no time agreeing to terms with the Cleveland Browns. The deal’s specifics are undisclosed, and nothing is official until Wednesday.

At only 25 years old, Hooper has recorded four years of at least three touchdowns scored in an offense that has featured a wealth of talent around him. He turned the corner as a sophomore and became a reliable target for quarterback Matt Ryan, developing a chemistry that would help create one of fantasy football’s best tight ends over the last two seasons.

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Hooper caught 49 of 65 targets in 2017 to produce 526 yards and a trio of scores. His third year led to a substantial jump in attention from Ryan. Hooper finished the year with a line of 71-660-4 on 88 targets, and he capped off his Falcons career with career highs in receptions (75), yardage (787) and touchdowns (six) and looks (97).

The Browns have plenty of offensive pieces in place, and now this team became that much more dangerous. A West Coast-flavored offense will be implemented by new head coach Kevin Stefanski, and Hooper gives quarterback Baker Mayfield a trustworthy safety blanket. Tight end David Njoku had a falling out last year with the previous regime, so he could stick around as a specialty player, but the Browns will likely entertain offers for his services.

Fantasy football outlook

On talent alone, Hooper has been somewhat of an overachiever in his career, but this situation isn’t all that much different for him than his Atlanta days. Hooper will have to contend with one heck of a receiver in Jarvis Landry and an elite ball hog in Odell Beckham Jr. This situation is even worse in terms of available looks in a run-based system. Furthermore, Kareem Hunt’s return will undoubtedly cut into Hooper’s targets underneath in the passing game.

That leaves the big question of how many targets can we expect to go Hooper’s way? Probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 75, plus/minus five. The reasoning being only 49 targets went to Kyle Rudolph in Stefanski’s offense last year, one that had a similar distribution of talent. Granted, that 49 number was negatively influenced by Mike Zimmer’s demand to run the ball.

Presuming Hooper sees about 75 looks, his catch rate of 78 percent over the last three years, we’re talking 59 receptions. His average yardage has been fairly steady at 10.6 when the 2018 season is removed for inefficiency within the system. That translates to around 620 yards, and his touchdown rate will be the most variable from one team to the next. He projects for four scores based on his advanced metrics, but TD efficiency (15 catches per score) is super volatile.

He easily could become a low-volume, high-TD guy in 2020, but safe money says he’s basically a clone of his Falcons fantasy version. Think TE1 but with tempered expectations.