Tag: Fantasy Football

Why Chargers TE Hunter Henry could be bound for best season of career in 2020

If Chargers tight end Hunter Henry stays healthy, he could have his best professional season yet.

Chargers tight end Hunter Henry has been on the outside of being considered one of the NFL’s top tight end. It’s primarily because he has struggled to stay healthy consistently, but Henry could be considered among the cream of the crop, if he stays injury-free.

Henry flourished with Philip Rivers distributing the wealth to him, amassing 136 catches, 1,709 receiving yards, 12.6 yards per reception and 17 touchdowns in 41 games.

However, the quarterback change, whether it’s Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert, could lead to higher production than what he managed to do with Rivers under center.

When Taylor was the starter for the Bills from 2015-17, he favored tight end Charles Clay as his primary target, as Clay was targeted 238 times in 41 games.

From those 238 targets, Clay caught 157 of them for 1,638 yards and six touchdowns.

If there is a switch at the quarterback position and the team decides to go with Herbert at some point during the season, Henry could quickly become the rookie’s go-to option.

During his time at Oregon, Herbert favored the team’s tight end in Jacob Breeland. The two linked up 74 times for 1,225 yards, 16.6 yards per reception and 13 touchdowns in four seasons.

The Chargers are expected to take more of a run-heavy approach, given the fact that they have a mobile quarterback now. That could hinder the looks that Henry does get. Not to mention, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams could take some of his targets away.

Nonetheless, Taylor and Herbert’s favoritism towards tight ends in the past could lead to a bright 2020 campaign for Henry, as he looks to earn a big contract extension (if he isn’t extended prior to the season).

Recapping FSGA fantasy football experts draft

Explaining the rationale behind some of my picks in the industry championship league.

Haters gonna hate.

Two things should be abundantly clear to every fantasy sports professional: You’re wrong almost as much you’re right in reality, and you’re wrong all of the time in the eyes of social media pundits. It’s fine. Having thick skin is a prerequisite for survival in this industry. A long-running rule of thumb is that being right 60 percent of the time is considered good. In other words, we’re in the same boat as meteorologists.

While being wrong roughly four out of 10 times isn’t ideal, it also illustrates the disparity in accuracy from the general public to people doing prognostication for a living. That’s not a brag but a fact of life in this business. That’s also not to say brilliant fantasy minds and competitors don’t exist outside of the sphere of people fortunate enough to do this for a living. But it’s super common to hear — especially when drafting in the middle of June — how wrong our picks are and what we should have done instead. Par for the course … Yet, every so often, someone’s critiques open our eyes to reevaluating a situation — or at least they should if we’re being open-minded.

That’s a long-winded way of saying, “Keep the hate coming!” I won’t pretend to speak for everyone, but it’s motivating, since millions of people would happily trade in their day jobs for mine, and I’m never going to let myself lose sight of it.

[lawrence-related id=451932]

Where does that miniature rant come from? The feedback to my Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) draft results.

Monday, June 22, witnessed 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in an online draft. We normally congregate in person. I’ve been in this league for roughly a decade now, and one of the first things I learned was the need to take calculated risks at a level unprecedented in any other professional draft. In addition to this being a 14-teamer, comprised by some of the brightest minds in fantasy, the loser goes home. This year, the bottom three teams get the boot.

In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I expect to break out and then fail miserably instead of finishing in the middle of the pack with an uninspired effort.

In 2019, I hated my draft and was roundly panned for it. I had no business being in the playoffs if we were grading on an immediate post-draft reaction. That team finished as the second-highest scorer and landed in second place, earning a first-round bye week. While it was bounced in the second round after a flat showing, that lineup scored the most points of all teams during the bye and would have beaten all teams over the rest of the playoffs. Again, that’s also not a brag. It’s an illustration that the season is so much more than the aesthetics of a draft result in June. Or July. Or August and September.

It’s easy (and fun) to get caught up in the immediate reactionary takes about a roster. However, luck avoiding devastating injuries, astute inseason waiver manipulation (no trading in this league), and — arguably most important of all — optimal lineup decisions matter so much more. Sometimes we all draft a team that is so dang good we get to skate through the regular season, but anyone who has played this game long enough knows how rare that tends to be when playing against 13 other professionals.

May team out of the eighth spot:

Overall Pick Player Team Pos
8 1.8 Derrick Henry TEN RB
21 2.7 Devin Singletary BUF RB
36 3.8 Raheem Mostert SFO RB
49 4.7 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR
64 5.8 Diontae Johnson PIT WR
77 6.7 Russell Wilson SEA QB
92 7.8 Rob Gronkowski TAM TE
105 8.7 Jamison Crowder NYJ WR
120 9.8 Zack Moss BUF RB
133 10.7 Hunter Renfrow LV WR
148 11.8 Jace Sternberger GNB TE
161 12.7 Chris Thompson JAC RB
176 13.8 Drew Lock DEN QB
189 14.7 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR
204 15.8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TAM Def/ST
217 16.7 Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU K

I’ll address the controversial picks rather than going line-item for 16 rounds worth of selections.

  • Devin Singletary drew a bunch of criticism for his lack of scoring prowess, Josh Allen’s role around the end zone, and the drafting of running back Zack Moss. I handcuffed Moss to Singletary to be safe, even though I really don’t like the idea of rookies in 2020 due to the abbreviated offseason. At least this is the one position where the transition may not be as daunting. If Allen is supposed to become a better quarterback in Year 3, coinciding with the addition of Stefon Diggs, Singletary stands to benefit. If the Bills are expected to be the favorite in the AFC East, the second-year back is going to be an integral part of it. I’ll take may chances reaching slightly that he’s closer to a strong RB2 in PPR than not. I wasn’t keen on a receiver, and none of the other RBs made more sense from an upside perspective.
  • Some criticism was levied for the D.K. Metcalf selection, and while I can see merit in the concerns, this, in part,, is the result of going three straight running backs to open the draft. I felt strongly enough in Raheem Mostert being a weekly lineup fixture as a flex, meaning wideouts could be thinner and less important. We saw elite-level flashes from Metcalf last year, and I’m confident he’s the real deal. I briefly considered Adam Thielen, but his lack of talent around him leaves me nervous, and his best play is behind him. Keenan Allen may look more respectable as a WR1 than Metcalf in a PPR, yet I have no confidence in the LA quarterback situation delivering weekly results. I then took a gamble that one of Robert Woods, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin or T.Y Hilton would be available in Round 5. I was wrong, which led me to the next (and most) controversial pick:
  • Diontae Johnson has soared up draft boards in recent weeks. While some gamers may not be comfortable with him as either a WR2 or as a fifth-round choice, I’m perfectly fine with both in a 14-teamer. I was determined to not miss out. Johnson will outscore JuJu Smith-Schuster and is going to be the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Not only that, he’ll emerge as a leading candidate for the top fantasy breakout player in 2020. Had I landed one of those aforementioned receivers, I then would have aimed for Johnson in Round 6. I reached for Chris Godwin last year and was rewarded. I don’t mind reaching for a guy I strongly feel will finish in the top 25 at his position.
  • The selection of Rob Gronkowski was questioned as being too early by many of the people providing feedback. I truly get the risk factor in drafting him, but there’s also considerable upside. I wrote for this very site that Gronk has bust factor written all over him, and much of it is due to injury history. Here’s to hoping the year away helped get his body right. It’s hard to ignore the chemistry with Tom Brady when looking around a talent-laden Tampa offense. We objectively have no idea if TB12 has any connection with Mike Evans and Godwin, regardless of how talented those guys are in their own right. The tight ends who immediately came off the board in the next round or so following my Gronk choice: Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee and Jared Cook. Those three guys are not less risky than the goofball I drafted. The final thought: I drafted Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger as Gronk’s backup, and the young tight end is another one of my favorite sleeper targets.
  • Chris Thompson is the only pick I’m not all that crazy about. He’s a boo-boo away from IR at all times, and the Jaguars have plenty of weapons around him to lessen the chance the former Washington Redskins pass-catching back is heavily involved. He is reunited with Jay Gruden, and there’s zero chance the coaching staff wants Leonard Fournette catching 76 passes again. The idea here is hopefully I don’t have to use Thompson, but if I do, I am comfortable with the situation.

KJ Hamler recreates classic ‘Pick Me’ fantasy football commercial

Broncos wide receiver KJ Hamler recreated a classic fantasy football commercial.

Denver Broncos wide receiver KJ Hamler recreated a classic fantasy football commercial and shared the results on social media this week.

Here is Hamler’s version of a Chris Chambers stunt created to promote Reebok and NFL.com’s fantasy football leagues in the late 2000s.

That sure brings back memories!

Hamler’s stunt isn’t quite as good as the originals but it’s worth noting that many of the original “Fantasy Files” were doctored. Here is the original from Chambers — it’s possible that it’s real but not certain.

Chambers spent 10 years in the NFL, playing for the Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. He caught 540 passes for 7,648 yards and 58 touchdowns.

Hamler was selected by the Broncos in the second round of this year’s NFL draft after catching 98 passes for 1,658 yards and 13 touchdowns in two seasons at Penn State. Hamler also rushed for 87 yards and a touchdown and totaled 1,258 return yards for the Nittany Lions.

[vertical-gallery id=642240]

Laviska Shenault Jr. projected as eighth-most productive rookie WR for 2020

The Jags needed a No. 2 WR heading into the draft and got one in Laviska Shenault in Round 2. As a result, he could have an early impact.

Coming into the 2020 NFL Draft, most projected the Jacksonville Jaguars to take a receiver early and they did just that. In the second-round, they pulled the trigger on the versatile Laviska Shenault Jr. from Colorado in efforts to find an No. 2 on the outside to pair with D.J. Chark Jr.

Upon selecting him, it was clear the Jags really liked the pick as the front office and coaching staff raved about the multitude of positions he played (receiver, slot, wildcat quarterback, running back) while at Colorado. While injuries came up as a concern amongst the media, the Jags’ staff also emphasized how solid he was prior to 2019 as they basically felt he would’ve been selected higher in 2018.

Of course, as a second-round selection it appears the Jags are going to put a lot on his plate as a rookie, especially when considering his versatility. As a result, NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund ranked him eighth in terms of production in her rookie receiver projections for 2020.

Per PFF, Shenault’s Colorado receiving snaps last season broke down as follows: He aligned wide on 107 snaps, was in the slot on 75 snaps and in the backfield on 27 snaps. Since 2018, Shenault had the most yards after the catch among Pac-12 receivers (1,060), per PFF. Injuries add context to his 2019 season for sure, but the takeaway is that he’s versatile and physical with a lot of upside. Shenault projects as WR No. 59 due to questions about the Jags’ offense overall and whether or not he’s fully healthy.

With the offseason preventing teams from having organized team activities and minicamp, Shenault will be behind come training camp so it’s a possibility that Chris Conley and Chark will get a lot of snaps on the outside. Additionally, Shenault’s route-running will need to be polished, which often times takes repetition for a young player. Still, Shenault’s versatility could help him get on the field in other ways while the team eases him into playing on the outside.

As for the rest of the receivers that made the list, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs III, Michael Pittman Jr., Justin Jefferson, and Jerry Jeudy came in at the top-5 spots, respectively. Denzel Mims, Brandon Aiyuk, Shenault, Tee Higgins, and Jalen Reagor filled the next respective spots.

Sound Off: Which TE do you plan to draft first in 2020?

The ADP data shows a clear TE1. Do you agree?

We always enjoy seeing reader feedback at The Huddle, and our “Sound Off” series is a fine way to get a finger on the pulse of our viewers.

In today’s poll, the answers should help illustrate whether there’s a clear consensus or a more polarized view on the top tight end to be drafted.

[lawrence-related id=452360,452354,452345]

In the event you choose to wait on the position and wouldn’t draft any of these guys, please opine as to which one you feel should go first. Per Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data in a 12-team, PPR draft, the top five are listed in order for this poll. Do you agree with the data?

[polldaddy poll=10569876]

49ers WR Deebo Samuel breaks foot and hearts in the process

Can Samuel salvage a fantasy-worthy season after the injury?

If you were among the many fantasy football gamers who expected a true breakout season from San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel in 2020, it’s time to reconsider — but not entirely write off — that idea. The second-year pro broke his foot in a workout session Thursday, June 18, and he will miss between three and four months of action.

A Jones fracture of the fifth metatarsal bone is among the toughest to overcome, and it generally requires hardware to be inserted into the foot for stabilization. Dez Bryant suffered the injury in September of 2015, and while he missed only seven games, the former Dallas Cowboy really wasn’t quite as explosive afterward. Marvin Jones underwent surgery for it in 2014 but came back strong.

The best-case scenario for his return is Week 2, and the extended range is Week 6, depending upon his conditioning. The 49ers are thin as it is at the position, and the setback will have a group of youngsters thrust into the spotlight. Rookie first-rounder Brandon Aiyuk is fairly raw and will be asked to take on the No. 1 duties, but this run-heavy offense’s top target is ultimately tight end George Kittle.

[lawrence-related id=451932]

Veterans Kendrick Bourne and Dante Pettis may be involved more than planned, and second-year receiver Jalen Hurd could benefit the most from this situation. Hurd, however, is arguably the rawest of the lot, and he’s effectively playing in a rookie season after redshirting in 2019.

Even deeper, Trent Taylor hopes to return from a serious injury of his own, and veteran Travis Benjamin was signed in the offseason.

More passes to the running backs can be expected, and the Niners are likely to entertain free-agent receiver options if Samuel appears to be on the long end of the prognosis. Interestingly, Bryant could be on their radar if it looks like Samuel will miss extensive action.

Fantasy football takeaway

From Samuel’s perspective, there’s thankfully some time yet, and if he misses only one game, the breakout season really could be within reach. The safe approach is to expect him to miss three or four games, and that would probably result in another couple of appearances before he’s fully up to speed. If you’re drafting early, treat him as a No. 3 wideout in all scoring formats. Should you have the luxury of waiting until late in the summer, we’ll have a better idea of his timeline to adjust accordingly. Finishing as a No. 2 receiver isn’t out of the question for him just yet.

Drop quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a low-tier QB2, and expect more targets for Kittle. He remains a strong TE1, if not the TE1. Presuming we indeed see a traditional training camp, Aiyuk will be worked in as much as possible and stands to benefit greatly. His speed is the rook’s best attribute, and there’s low-end WR3 or flex value if Samuel misses significant time.

Bourne and Pettis are merely fliers in the deepest of leagues, with pristine matchups being the only justifiable way to play them. Both RBs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are now solidly in play as weekly lineup options the entire while Samuel sits.

The most important aspect of evaluating the situation is closely monitoring media reports of Samuel’s injury. We’ll be sure to keep you updated on The Huddle.

Sound Off: Which WR do you plan to draft second in 2020?

After Michael Thomas, which WR do you prefer to go next in PPR?

We always enjoy seeing reader feedback at The Huddle, and our “Sound Off” series is a fine way to get a finger on the pulse of our viewers.

Rather than asking a silly question of which wide receiver should go first in a PPR draft, the more important mystery to solve is finding out the guy fantasy football general managers prefer after the New Orleans Saints’ Michael Thomas invariably goes first.

[lawrence-related id=452345]

In the event you choose to wait on the position and wouldn’t draft any of these guys, please opine as to which one you feel should go first. Per Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data in a 12-team, PPR draft, the WRs chosen second through sixth are listed in order for this poll. Do you agree with the data?

[polldaddy poll=10569177]

Note: Three WRs listed with an ADP of 2:01 is not a mistake. Each player has an average placement of pick 12.9 overall in the data.

[lawrence-related id=452354]

 

Texans receivers are not ideal as top picks in fantasy football

The new look Houston Texans receiving corps without DeAndre Hopkins may not have very quality offerings for fantasy football players.

The Houston Texans’ strategy for 2020 roster construction is to have layers of productive players, not just one player at a position who is the best in the NFL.

That is how DeAndre Hopkins goes to the Arizona Cardinals and quarterback Deshaun Watson now has receivers Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and Will Fuller to choose from.

Coach and general manager Bill O’Brien’s strategy may prove efficacious: give Watson a variety of weapons let him pick apart defenses. However, O’Brien’s strategy of diversity in the passing game makes Texans wideouts dubious acquisitions in fantasy football.

NFL.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano tackled the problem.

The biggest question: Who will absorb most of the 150 targets Nuk left behind? Cooks is the first name that comes to mind, but he’s been anything but durable in recent seasons. Unfortunately, you can say the same thing about Cobb, Will Fuller and Keke Coutee, so none of Houston’s top wideouts come with guarantees. At this point, I’d consider Cooks a WR3 with Fuller a WR4 and Cobb a WR4/WR5.

Watson will be the top haul from the Texans’ offense. However, his receiving corps may be waiver wire type of players.

Sound Off: Which RB do you plan to draft first in 2020?

While it may seem like there’s an obvious choice, it never hurts to consider all options.

We always enjoy seeing reader feedback at The Huddle, and our “Sound Off” series is a fine way to get a finger on the pulse of our viewers.

In today’s poll, the answers should help illustrate whether there’s a clear consensus or a more polarized view on the elite players at the running back position. It may seem like there’s an obvious answer, but the NFL changes greatly year over year, and not everyone views the consensus the same way.

[lawrence-related id=452345]

In the event you choose to wait on the position and wouldn’t draft any of these guys, please opine as to which one you feel should go first. Per Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data in a 12-team, PPR draft, the top five are listed in order for this poll. Do you agree with the data?

[polldaddy poll=10568559]

 

Where do Bears RBs David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen rank in ESPN’s fantasy projections?

See where Bears running backs David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen rank among ESPN’s 2020 fantasy football projections.

The Chicago Bears offense was one of the worst in the NFL last season, and unless you had receiver Allen Robinson on your roster, they weren’t to be counted on in your fantasy football lineup.

In ESPN’s 2020 fantasy football projections, Bears running backs Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery ranked 100th and 102nd, respectively, overall. By position, Cohen ranks 25th and Montgomery 26th among running backs.

After a solid 2018 season, Cohen’s production took a dip last year as Matt Nagy didn’t find a way to utilize him to the fullest. Cohen’s contributions in the passing game were most valuable, as he 79 receptions for 456 yards and three touchdowns. But his production on the ground really took a hit, as he had 64 carries for 213 yards.

Cohen returns as Chicago’s change-of-pace and extremely-busy receiving back. Believe it or not, Cohen ranks fourth among backs in both targets (261) and receptions (203) since entering the NFL in 2017. Cohen’s 190-pound frame has limited him to no more than 99 carries in a single season and a grand total of four carries inside the 5-yard line. However, 70-plus catches each of the past two seasons has helped him to fantasy finishes of 11th in 2018 and 27th in 2019. Cohen’s efficiency was extremely poor last season (3.3 YPC, 4.4 YPT), and he’ll remain limited as a rusher and at the goal line, but his role isn’t expected to change in 2020, which locks him into the PPR flex discussion.

ESPN projects Cohen will have a better year in 2020, and they even have him ranked higher than starting running back David Montgomery. They have Cohen tallying 69 carries for 291 yards with 4.2 yards per carry (up from 3.3 last season) and a score. They expect Cohen to have a big year in the passing game, where they project 72 receptions for 508 yards and two touchdowns.

Montgomery had a solid rookie season, but it wasn’t exactly what the Bears were hoping for. Then again, Montgomery didn’t get help from a struggling offensive line and some questionable play calling by Nagy. Montgomery had more than 20 rushing attempts in just four games, and there were seven games where he had less than 15 carries.

Montgomery’s rookie season didn’t go as planned, but the 2019 third-round pick remains atop the Chicago depth chart. The Iowa State product wasn’t short on volume in his first season, ranking 12th among backs in touches and sixth in carries inside the 5 (14). The problem was a combination of poor rushing efficiency (3.7 YPC, 1.6 YAC) and a lack of volume and effectiveness as a pass-catcher (185 yards on 37 targets). The end result was two top-15 fantasy weeks and a 24th-place finish by season’s end. Montgomery will continue to defer passing-down work to Tarik Cohen but is certainly a breakout candidate in his second season. Montgomery is a flex option with RB2 upside.

ESPN projects Montgomery to have a higher fantasy value in 2020, although it’ll be more because of his versatility out of the backfield. They have Montgomery getting 212 carries (down from his 242 in 2019) for 849 yards (down from 889 last year) for six touchdowns (same as in 2019). But they have Montgomery getting more production in the passing game with 26 receptions for 215 yards and a score, although you figure Montgomery will be more involved with the passing game in 2020.

[vertical-gallery id=445985]

[lawrence-related id=448269,447973,448220,448208,448158]