Tag: fantasy football Week 18 WDIS

Week 18 is when daily fantasy becomes extra crazy. During Week 18, it is possible for coaches to limit the playing time of several starters and for some to opt out of the game completely. When this occurs, it is important to determine which players are most likely to play the entire game. The worst feeling in the world is to build your ultimate lineup and watch your stars kick butt in the first half and then end up spending the rest of the game on the bench.

One thing to note is that both FanDuel and FanBall are including the Sunday Night Football game in their regular slate.

DFS: The Saturday Slate

Saturday Afternoon

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Mason Rudolph (QB4) is performing considerably better than either Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky. He still is the low man on this slate’s totem pole. Against a solid Baltimore defense, he is looking at no greater than 200-1.

Lamar Jackson (coach’s decision) is sitting out this game. This leaves Tyler Huntley (QB3) to lead this offense. He is serviceable, but don’t expect him to put up huge numbers.

We continue to see a split between Jaylen Warren (RB6) and Najee Harris (RB4). Harris is getting the larger share of the carries, but Warren is seeing far more of the targets. Neither did much in their earlier meeting. That said, if Baltimore plays their reserves this week, both could return RB2 value.

Gus Edwards (RB5) and Justice Hill (RB3) have been serving as the primary ball carriers for Baltimore. Each is a potential RB2. Melvin Gordon (RB8) would see a heavy workload if Hill and Edwards are rested.

When Rudolph took over as the starter, it became immediately clear that George Pickens (WR4) would be the beneficiary. He is one of the WR1 choices this week. Diontae Johnson (WR5) is still seeing a fair target share, but he has returned to TD irrelevance. His receptions are enough to make him WR2 eligible in DK format. Allen Robinson (WR13) is, at best, a Showdown play.

Zay Flowers (calf) is doubtful, while Odell Beckham Jr. won’t play. That leaves Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, who would become an instant WR2 play. Bateman is less appealing.

I expected more from Pat Freiermuth (TE3) with Rudolph under the center. His production has been steady but not elite. On a small slate, he is no better than a flex play.

Isaiah Likely (TE1) has stepped right into Mark Andrews’ role as the alpha receiver in this offense. If he plays, he should be your starting TE. If he rests, Charlie Kolar (TE7) could be a sneaky pivot.

Saturday Night

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

C.J. Stroud (QB1) returned last week and continued to post quality numbers, despite further injuries to his WR corps. Pencil in Stroud for a floor of 265-2.

Based on his performance this season, Gardner Minshew (QB2) deserves to be an NFL starting QB in 2024. Houston has not allowed many passing TDs, but they are seventh-worst in passing yards allowed. They also have allowed a league-worst seven QB rushing scores. Minshew will score both ways and throw for just under 260 yards here.

Devin Singletary (RB2) bypassing Dameon Pierce (RB8) was not on my preseason bingo card. Indy ranks bottom-five in RB rushing yards, rushing TDs, and receiving yards allowed. Use Singletary as an RB1, but skip Pierce.

Johnathan Taylor (RB1) is back from his second injury absence of the season. This return has coincided with the reinjury of Zack Moss (RB7 – forearm). Taylor has now scored in six of the last seven games he has played, making him a near-lock to score here. Even if Moss (questionable) returns, he is no better than a Showdown dart throw. If Moss remains out, Trey Sermon (RB9) also would have Showdown value.

Noah Brown (hip, knee, back) won’t play, so we can more safely expect another huge showing from Nico Collins (WR2). He should be in your WR1 conversation. Robert Woods (WR12) will be the other starter for Houston, if he plays through a knee injury that has him questionable. He can be a WR3 flier, if active. Both Xavier Hutchinson (WR15) and John Metchie (WR16) will see increased targets this week, but neither deserves a start.

If you don’t use Collins at WR1, then use Michael Pittman Jr. (WR1), or better yet, start both of them. Josh Downs (WR6) and Alec Pierce (WR10) are both WR3 considerations.

This is a deep TE slate, but Dalton Schultz (TE2) remains one of the safest plays. Even Brevin Jordan (TE6) makes a sneaky flex play.

Indy is once again playing “Wheel of Tight Ends.” Good luck choosing between Kylen Granson (TE4), Will Mallory (TE5), and Mo Alie-Cox (TE8). One of them will score and all three will combine for four catches and 40 yards. Granson is the only one to trust.

The Main Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Tyrod Taylor ($5.3k), RB Rachaad White ($7.6k), RB Ezekiel Elliott ($5.9k), WR A.J. Brown ($8.7k), WR Brandin Cooks ($5.2k), WR Darius Slayton ($4.0k), TE Evan Engram ($5.4k), FLEX Zach Charbonnet ($5.0k), DST Los Angeles Rams ($2.6k)

FD Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($9.5k), RB James Conner ($7.3k), RB Rachaad White ($7.7k), WR A.J. Brown ($8.2k), WR Darius Slayton ($5.7k), WR Brandin Cooks ($6.3k), TE Noah Gray ($4.8k), FLEX Ezekiel Elliott ($6.7k), DST Los Angeles Rams ($3.6k)

FB Lineup: QB Nick Mullens ($5.2k), RB Ezekiel Elliott ($5.7k) RB James Conner ($5.8k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.6k), WR A.J. Brown ($7.9k), WR/TE Justin Jefferson ($8.0k), TE Tanner Hudson ($3.3k), FLEX Darius Slayton ($3.0k), SUPERFLEX Dak Prescott ($7.3k)

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Dak Prescott has the best matchup, and it is a must-win game. The enormous concern is that it is on the road. Josh Allen is pricey, but this game is also a must-win, so consider paying up for him on FD. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields have good matchups and can be solid pivots. Jared Goff has an easy matchup, and the Lions should play their starters the whole game. You can also use Jordan Love in a game the Packers need. Tyrod Taylor, Nick Mullens, Carson Wentz, and Ryan Tannehill are cheap punts.

Fantasy Four-pack

Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ WAS ($8,000 DK, $8,700 FD) Dallas is playing for the division title, so they will be all-in. The biggest concern is that Prescott has struggled on the road this year. Fortunately, Washington is rotten enough that the road curse shouldn’t bother him this week. Back in Week 12, Prescott put up 311-4 against this defense. It won’t be four scores, but 300-3 is certainly in play. 

Josh Allen, Bills @ MIA ($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD) Assuming that both Allen (neck) and Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder) are ready to go as expected, this game could hit 80 combined points. Despite posting just three passing TDs over his last four games, Allen has added six rushing scores over that span. This sets up nicely as only four teams have allowed more QB rushing scores than Miami. Also, back in Week 4, Allen accounted for five total TDs against them.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ NYG ($8,100 DK, $9,000 FD) Another team in must-win mode is the Eagles. Much like Allen, Hurts also has been keeping relevant thanks to his legs. He has eight rushing TDs over his last six games. One of those came two weeks ago versus these Giants. This week, Hurts will post 235-1 to go along with 40-2 on the ground.

Justin Fields, Bears @ GB ($7,200 DK, $8,100 FD) Green Bay has been in free fall defensively. In the last four weeks, they have allowed eight passing TDs. This is amazing when you consider that they have faced a murderer’s row of Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, and Jaren Hall over that span. Fields has scored a rushing TD in three of his last four games. Chalk up another here, to go along with at least one through the air.

DFS Sleepers

Tyrod Taylor, Giants vs. PHI ($5,300 DK, $7,000 FD) Taylor (back) turned garbage time into a near-comeback victory last week. This week, he faces a Philly defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and second-most passing TDs. Philly will have their feet firmly on the gas pedal, so Taylor will be a garbage-time hero again.

Nick Mullens, Vikings @ DET ($5,100 DK, $7,100 FD) Watching Mullens play may make you pull your hair out. Fortunately, only INTs count negatively against him in DFS. Even with their injuries, Minnesota still has a load of weapons to choose from. Plus, Detroit has been absolute trash against the pass. The Vikings have wafer-thin odds of making the postseason, so they will leave everything on the Ford Field turf. Expect Mullens to finish with 335-2 (and at least two INTs as well). 

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Rachaad White is once again the safest play. De’Von Achane is in play on FD, if Raheem Mostert (shin) remains out. Otherwise, use Breece Hall, D’Andre Swift, or Saquon Barkley as pivots. Kenneth Walker III (shoulder) has a great matchup, but he might miss this game with a shoulder injury. His backup, Zach Charbonnet, is a fabulous punt option. Other RB2 choices include Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, and Khalil Herbert. They all have easy matchups. You can also consider volume replacements for backs that are sitting this week. Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, La’Mical Perine, Royce Freeman, and Pierre Strong Jr. could all see starter’s reps.

Fantasy Four-pack

Rachaad White, Buccaneers @ CAR ($7,600 DK, $7,700 FD) Carolina has allowed a league-worst 24 total TDs to the position. One of those went to White back in Week 13. This was part of a stretch where White had scored in seven of his last nine games.

Breece Hall, Jets @ NE ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD) Over the last four weeks, Hall has averaged 25 PPR points per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have allowed four double-digit PPR backs in their last three games. With no Dalvin Cook, Hall will get all the touches he can eat here.

D’Andre Swift, Eagles @ NYG ($6,800 DK, $6,900 FD) The Giants rank bottom-three in both rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to the position. They also were only one of six teams to allow Swift to score this season. If Jalen Hurts lets him, Swift could score again. Either way, he should approach 100 total yards.

De’Von Achane, Dolphins vs. BUF ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD) You can only use him on FD, but Achane (toe) is primed for another gigantic game, if Raheem Mostert (shin) remains out. Achane has played in only 10 games this season, but he has 10 TDs in those games. This includes the earlier meeting with Buffalo, where Achane posted 120 yards and two scores on just 11 touches.

DFS Sleepers

Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots vs. NYJ ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD) Over their last four games, the Jets have allowed 472 total yards and NINE total TDs to opposing RBs. This includes six TDs allowed in just the last two weeks. Elliott has scored in three of his last four games and will score at least once here.

James Conner, Cardinals vs. SEA ($6,100 DK, $7,300 FD) Seattle is allowing the third-most total TDs to the RB position this year. Over their last four games, the Seahawks are allowing an average of 165 combo yards and 1.25 total TDs to the position. Meanwhile, since Week 13, Conner is averaging greater than 22 PPR points per game.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – To quote one of the greatest New Year’s movies of all time, “Spend, Mortimer, spend.” They loaded the top of the board with some studs in great matchups. You should use two of A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill (FD only). The cheaper pivots would be Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder), DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley. If you choose to spend up at WR3, use DeAndre Hopkins, Romeo Doubs, or Brandin Cooks. Other WR3 options to consider are Demarcus Robinson, Greg Dortch, Darius Slayton, Alex Erickson, and whoever suits up for San Francisco and Kansas City.

Fantasy Four-pack

A.J. Brown, Eagles @ NYG ($8,700 DK, $8,200 FD) Brown played the squeaky wheel card this past weekend. Combining this with the probability that DeVonta Smith (ankle) will not play this weekend, leaves Brown with a chance at 15 targets. 

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys @ WAS ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD) Lamb has scored and/or topped 100 total yards in 11 straight games. This includes topping 150 yards four times during that span. Washington has allowed the most WR receiving yards and the second-most WR receiving scores. Lamb is a lock for at least 125-1 here. 

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins vs. BUF ($9,400 DK, $9,500 FD) This game will feature very few punts. The last team to possess the ball will probably win. Both teams could approach 500 scrimmage yards and/or top 40 points. Hill will be the primary beneficiary of those yards and points, especially if Jaylen Waddle (ankle) remains out.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings @ DET ($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD) The Vikings need this victory to make the playoffs. Plus, Jefferson is within striking distance of the 1k receiving yardage mark. In the two earlier games with Nick Mullens at QB, Jefferson averaged 10 targets, 6.5 receptions, and 113 yards. This included a monster game against these same Lions. Mullens will pepper Jefferson all game. 

DFS Sleepers

Brandin Cooks, Cowboys @ WAS ($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD) Washington is awful enough against the pass to make both Lamb and Cooks startable. I wouldn’t recommend stacking all three, but if you cannot afford to squeeze Lamb into your lineup, use Cooks instead.

Greg Dortch, Cardinals vs. SEA ($4,600 DK, $5,500 FD) Dortch led all Cardinals in every receiving category last week. Most weeks, that role will fall to Trey McBride. A similar volume here should return a similar output to last week’s 7-82.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Trey McBride and Evan Engram should each see a high target volume in middling matchups. Dalton Kincaid (FD only), Darren Waller, Gerald, Everett, and Tucker Kraft are the top pivots. Tanner Hudson has a juicy matchup at a bargain price. Also, consider punt options replacing sitting starters such as Ross Dwelley, Noah Gray, Davis Allen, and Harrison Bryant.

Fantasy Four-pack

Trey McBride, Cardinals vs. SEA ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD) McBride has seven or more targets and five or more receptions in seven straight games. With Arizona continuing to be shorthanded on offense, McBride should continue to see a large target share.

Evan Engram, Jaguars @ TEN ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD) Tennessee is very good against opposing TEs. That said, they have allowed a TE to score in back-to-back games. Meanwhile, Engram has five or more targets in every game this season. Plus, he has topped 60 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Much like Arizona, Jacksonville is severely shorthanded in their receiving corps. This means that Engram should continue to see just under 10 targets per game.

Dalton Kincaid, Bills @ MIA ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD) After a pair of dud games, Kincaid exploded for 4-87 on seven targets last week. Miami has allowed three TE scores over their last two games. The stars are aligning here and Kincaid will finally net his third score of the year. 

Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. MIN ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD) Minnesota is solid against the TE position, but LaPorta is within striking distance of a few plateaus including 1k receiving yards and double-digit TDs. Look for the Lions to push to get LaPorta to both goals.

DFS Sleepers

Tucker Kraft, Packers vs. CHI ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD) Chicago has allowed the fifth-most receptions and the third-most receiving TDs to the position. Since the injury to Luke Musgrave (kidney), Kraft has seen a ton of opportunities. This includes six targets in four of his last five games.

Tanner Hudson, Bengals vs. CLE ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD) In six of his last nine games, Hudson has at least four receptions. He also is coming off of his highest target output of the season last week. Over their last four games, Cleveland has forgotten how to cover the position. During that span, they have allowed a league-worst 35 receptions and four TDs to the position.