Saturday DFS Domination: Week 16

Lineup recommendations for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 16 DFS fantasy football primetime slate.

The massive popularity of small DFS slates has propelled us to expand our DFS coverage. Here are my favorite lineups for this Saturday-Only Slate.

Recommended Saturday-Only DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB C.J. Stroud ($6.0k), RB Derrick Henry ($8.0k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.0k), WR Nico Collins ($8.1k), WR Zay Flowers ($5.9k), WR DeAndre Hopkins ($5.3k), TE Pat Freiermuth ($3.9k), FLEX Dalton Schultz ($3.4k), DST Baltimore Ravens ($3.3k)

FD Lineup: QB C.J. Stroud ($7.2k), RB Derrick Henry ($9.0k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.0k), WR Nico Collins ($9.0k), WR Zay Flowers ($7.2k) WR Calvin Austin III ($5.5k), TE Pat Freiermuth ($5.5k), FLEX Travis Kelce ($6.5k), DST Baltimore Ravens ($3.8k)

Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has the best matchup on the slate. He also has a high-ankle sprain. Nobody plays six days after a high-ankle sprain. Of course, if anyone could play six days after a high-ankle sprain, it would be Mahomes. He is already off the official injury report. His price is slightly higher than C.J. Stroud, but you can finagle him in. A cheaper pivot would be Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson has an astronomical price and a tough matchup. To play him, you must fade one of Derrick Henry or Nico Collins. I’d rather just say no.

Joe Mixon (ankle) played through an ankle injury last week. Given he avoided an injury ll signs point to him being ready for Saturday, making him the pivot from Henry at RB1 (albeit it is in a tough matchup). If (and only if) Mixon is out, Dameon Pierce will step into a lead role and be a nice punt play. If Mixon plays, you can disregard Pierce. Najee Harris‘ matchup is brutal. As a “starter,” he still becomes the RB2 pivot by default. That said, I’d rather use Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Warren, or Justice Hill. For a discount punt, consider Samaje Perine.

[lawrence-related id=497844]

Unless I pay up for Jackson at QB, I will use both Collins and Zay Flowers. Tank Dell would be the pivot away from Collins in that case. At WR3, use one of Rashod Bateman (foot), Xavier Worthy, Calvin Austin III, or DeAndre Hopkins. Marquise Brown (chest) will make his 2024 debut this week. I’d wait a week to see his usage. I don’t see a need to punt, but if you do, use JuJu Smith-Schuster or Van Jefferson.

Tight end is the deepest position on this slate. Barring something crazy, I will probably pull my flex from this position. Travis Kelce has a good matchup, but his price makes him a potential fade. It helps when all four starters are legit options. Dalton Schultz and Pat Freiermuth each have elite-level matchups and cheaper costs. I’m trending towards featuring that pairing. Mark Andrews has eight TDs. They have all come in the last nine weeks. He is the top pivot from Freiermuth. Noah Gray also is a TD threat. He can be the pivot from Schultz. Isaiah Likely started the season as an absolute stud, but he has since become a colossal dud. I’ll likely pass, pun intended.

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 16

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 16 DFS fantasy football.

Did you get Cooper’ed last week? Whether it was Amari or Kupp, looking at that goose egg in the live scoring box is disheartening. It’s even more gut-wrenching when you know that if that zero had just produced his weekly average, you would have gone from a minimal profit to a four-figure payday. For me, it was the Grinch, Amari, who put the coal down my stocking. So, unfortunately, my wallet did not grow three sizes last week.

Recommended DFS lineups

*Note: FanDuel and Fanball include the Sunday night game on their Main Slate. DraftKings doesn’t include them, so the pricing is listed as N/A.

DK Lineup: QB Aaron Rodgers ($5.6k), RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($7.5k), RB Jerome Ford ($5.6k), WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6.0k), WR Davante Adams ($7.1k), WR Keenan Allen ($5.3k), TE Brenton Strange ($3.5k), FLEX Chuba Hubbard ($6.8k), DST Tennessee Titans ($2.6k)

FD Lineup: QB Cooper Rush ($7.0k), RB Chuba Hubbard ($7.1k), RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8.3k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.5k), WR Keenan Allen ($6.2k), WR Jalen McMillan ($5.8k), TE Brenton Strange ($5.2K), FLEX Bucky Irving ($7.8k), DST Atlanta Falcons ($4.0k)

FB Lineup: QB Aaron Rodgers ($5.6k), RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($7.3k), RB Chuba Hubbard ($5.9k), WR Davante Adams ($6.7k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($7.1k), WR/TE Mike Evans ($7.0k), TE Hunter Henry ($3.9k), FLEX Bucky Irving ($5.9k), SUPERFLEX Cooper Rush ($5.3k)

*Note: Player salaries are color-coded based on expected output. Red = Less than 2.5x value, Black = 2.5x valueGreen = Greater than 3x value.

Quarterback DraftKings FanDuel
Josh Allen $8,700 $9,400
Jalen Hurts $7,800 $8,600
Joe Burrow $7,500 $8,300
Jayden Daniels $7,300 $8,200
Baker Mayfield N/A $8,100
Jared Goff $6,800 $7,800
Sam Darnold $6,500 $7,700
Brock Purdy $6,300 $7,500
Kyler Murray $6,100 $8,000
Tua Tagovailoa $6,000 $7,600
Matthew Stafford $5,900 $7,100
Cooper Rush N/A $7,000
Drake Maye $5,800 $6,800
Geno Smith $5,700 $7,300
Aaron Rodgers $5,600 $7,300
Caleb Williams $5,500 $7,200
Anthony Richardson $5,400 $7,400
Bryce Young $5,300 $6,700
Mac Jones $5,200 $6,800
Sam Howell $5,200 $6,600
Aidan O’Connell $5,100 $6,900
Desmond Ridder $5,100 $6,900
Mason Rudolph $5,000 $6,500
Drew Lock $4,900 $6,400
Dorian Thompson-Robinson $4,800 $6,000
Michael Penix Jr. $4,500 $6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – With many teams making QB changes this week, there are several cheap options to choose from. Unfortunately, you get what you pay for. Mac Jones and Aidan O’Connell are the only cheap QBs to trust. Still, this is the week to use one of the proven options. Josh AllenJoe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield (hamstring) are the top choices. Sam DarnoldCooper Rush, and my favorite option of the week, Aaron Rodgers, are the pivots. Just use one of those six and don’t get too cute here.

Fantasy four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills vs. NE ($8,700 DK, $9,400 FD) New England shut out Arizona last week, but before that they allowed 11 total QB scores over their prior three games. Meanwhile, Allen has 13 total TDs over his last three games.

Joe Burrow, Bengals vs. CLE ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD): Burrow has three or more touchdowns in six straight games, giving him eight such games out of 14 to start the season. Cleveland will not slow down this train; expect at least three TDs once again. 

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers @ DAL (N/A DK, $8,100 FD) Dallas has allowed the third-most total TDs to the QB position. They have especially struggled with QBs who can run. Mayfield (hamstring) isn’t exactly Michael Vick, but he has three rushing TDs and averages 19 rushing yards per game. Plus, he has seven passing scores over his last two games. Stack him with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ WAS ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD) Washington held Hurts in check back in Week 11. Of course, that came at the altar of Saquon Barkley, posting nearly 200 total yards and two scores. That also was one of only three games in which Hurts did not have multiple TDs. He’ll get back on track here, with two total scores being his floor.

Sleepers

Aaron Rodgers, Jets vs. LAR ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD) Over the last four weeks, only four teams have allowed more total TDs to the position. Quietly Rodgers has moved into the top seven in passing TDs. I expect another pair of scores here.

Mac Jones, Jaguars @ LV ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FDJones has a couple more games to end this season as an audition for the second act of his career. Over the last three weeks, he has posted a pair of two-TD games. Meanwhile, five of the last seven QBs to face Vegas have scored at least twice.

Running back DraftKings FanDuel
Saquon Barkley $8,300 $9,100
Bijan Robinson $8,100 $8,900
Chase Brown $7,700 $8,200
Jahmyr Gibbs $7,500 $8,300
De’Von Achane $7,400 $8,000
Kyren Williams $7,200 $8,500
James Conner $7,100 $8,400
James Cook $7,000 $8,700
Bucky Irving N/A $7,800
Jonathan Taylor $6,900 $7,700
Rico Dowdle N/A $7,300
Chuba Hubbard $6,800 $7,100
Isaac Guerendo $6,700 $7,700
Tony Pollard $6,600 $7,200
Aaron Jones Sr. $6,400 $7,500
Kenneth Walker III $6,300 $7,000
Rachaad White N/A $7,000
Brian Robinson Jr. $6,200 $6,800
Breece Hall $6,100 $8,100
Zach Charbonnet $6,000 $6,900
Rhamondre Stevenson $5,900 $6,500
Travis Etienne Jr. $5,800 $6,300
D’Andre Swift $5,600 $6,200
Jerome Ford $5,600 $6,800
Tyler Allgeier $5,500 $5,700
Tyrone Tracy Jr. $5,500 $6,400
Cam Akers $5,400 $5,500
Antonio Gibson $5,300 $5,000
Tank Bigsby $5,300 $6,100
Ezekiel Elliott N/A $4,900
Patrick Taylor Jr. $5,200 $4,800
Ty Johnson $5,200 $5,500
Alexander Mattison $5,100 $5,600
Braelon Allen $5,100 $5,500
Isaiah Davis $5,000 $5,100
Travis Homer $5,000 $4,800
Raheem Mostert $4,900 $4,900
Tyjae Spears $4,900 $5,900
Kenneth Gainwell $4,800 $5,000
Roschon Johnson $4,800 $5,200
Ray Davis $4,700 $5,200
Trey Benson $4,600 $5,100
Devin Singletary $4,500 $5,400
Khalil Herbert $4,500 $5,000
Pierre Strong Jr. $4,400 $4,700
Jeremy McNichols $4,300 $5,300
Jaylen Wright $4,100 $4,700

Running back

Weekly strategy – Do you trust Jahmyr Gibbs to handle a full workload? I do. At this price, I cannot imagine not playing him. If I do pivot, it will be with Chase Brown or Bijan RobinsonJames Conner and Bucky Irving are the other two players I can see playing there. At RB2, use one of Rico Dowdle or Chuba Hubbard. There are three potential punt plays Jerome Ford, Patrick Taylor Jr., and Alexander Mattison.

Fantasy four-pack

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions @ CHI ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD) Over the last four weeks, Chicago has allowed a league-worst six total TDs to the RB position. Plus, the Bears are allowing 169 combo yards per game over that stretch. Gibbs and David Montgomery (knee) were splitting just under 35 combined PPR points per game. If Gibbs gets even three-fourths of that, he will be golden. 

Bijan Robinson, Falcons vs. NYG ($8,100 DK, $8,900 FD) Obviously, all the eyes will be on Michael Penix Jr. He proved an elite passer in college, and New York is talent-challenged, so he may find success here. Robinson will be a large part of that passing game. Over their last four games, the Giants are third-worst in RB receptions and receiving yards allowed.

Chase Brown, Bengals vs. CLE ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD) Only six teams have allowed more rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Meanwhile, Brown has now scored at least once in six of his last seven games (coinciding with Zack Moss‘ season-ending injury). In the other game, he finished with 143 total yards. 

Saquon Barkley, Eagles @ WAS ($8,300 DK, $9,100 FD) As mentioned above, Barkley (knee) went berserk against Washington back in Week 11. He has come back to Earth since the return of DeVonta Smith, but it is still hard to not play him here. Barkley has scored at least once in each of his last five games versus Washington.

Sleepers

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. ARI ($6,800 DK, $7,100 FD) Hubbard posted his third dud in his last four games. I’m shocked, as the injury to Jonathon Brooks (knee) should’ve reopened the door to his early season success. Arizona has struggled all season with pass-catching RBs and Hubbard ranks 10th in RB receptions this year.

Jerome Ford, Browns @ CIN ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD) In Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s few career appearances, the rushing game has been pathetic. Of course, half of those games came against elite rushing defenses. Nick Chubb (foot) scored in the earlier meeting against Cincy (during which DTR played), but the entire RB room combined for only 52 total yards. Still, Cincy has been struggling against the position recently, allowing six total scores over their last four games.

Wide Receiver DraftKings FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase $8,500 $9,500
Justin Jefferson $8,200 $9,000
Puka Nacua $8,000 $8,900
Mike Evans N/A $8,800
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,900 $8,600
A.J. Brown $7,800 $8,700
CeeDee Lamb N/A $8,500
Terry McLaurin $7,300 $8,000
Davante Adams $7,100 $8,400
Tyreek Hill $6,900 $7,700
Tee Higgins $6,800 $7,800
Jerry Jeudy $6,700 $7,200
Garrett Wilson $6,600 $7,100
Cooper Kupp $6,500 $8,300
Drake London $6,400 $7,400
Brian Thomas Jr. $6,300 $7,300
Jordan Addison $6,200 $6,900
Malik Nabers $6,100 $8,200
Jaxon Smith-Njigba $6,000 $7,900
Jauan Jennings $5,900 $7,000
Khalil Shakir $5,900 $6,600
DeVonta Smith $5,800 $7,600
Jakobi Meyers $5,800 $6,700
Calvin Ridley $5,700 $5,900
DJ Moore $5,700 $6,300
Adam Thielen $5,600 $6,200
Jaylen Waddle $5,600 $6,000
DK Metcalf $5,500 $7,500
Jameson Williams $5,500 $6,100
Darnell Mooney $5,400 $6,400
Marvin Harrison Jr. $5,400 $6,800
Keenan Allen $5,300 $6,200
Jalen McMillan N/A $5,800
Brandin Cooks N/A $5,700
Amari Cooper $5,200 $5,600
Deebo Samuel Sr. $5,200 $6,500
Rome Odunze $5,100 $5,900
Michael Pittman Jr. $5,000 $6,100
Sterling Shepard N/A $5,200
Cedric Tillman $4,900 $5,100
Josh Downs $4,900 $6,000
Alec Pierce $4,800 $5,400
Elijah Moore $4,800 $5,500
Keon Coleman $4,700 $5,300
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,700 $5,400
Ray-Ray McCloud III $4,500 $5,700
Tim Patrick $4,500 $5,500
DeMario Douglas $4,400 $4,900
Jalen Tolbert N/A $4,900
Parker Washington $4,300 $5,600
Jalen Coker $4,200 $5,200
Michael Wilson $4,200 $5,000
Wan’Dale Robinson $4,100 $5,100
Allen Lazard $4,000 $4,900
Demarcus Robinson $4,000 $5,000
Tre Tucker $3,900 $4,900
Tyler Lockett $3,900 $5,300
Adonai Mitchell $3,800 $4,900
Darius Slayton $3,800 $4,800
KaVontae Turpin N/A $4,800
Malik Washington $3,700 $4,700
Tyler Boyd $3,700 $4,800
Andrei Iosivas $3,600 $5,100
David Moore $3,600 $4,800
Mack Hollins $3,600 $5,200
Kayshon Boutte $3,500 $4,700
Olamide Zaccheaus $3,500 $4,700
Tutu Atwell $3,500 $4,700
Dyami Brown $3,400 $4,900
Kendrick Bourne $3,400 $4,800
Jahan Dotson $3,300 $4,600
Jalen Nailor $3,300 $4,900
Josh Reynolds $3,300 $4,500
Greg Dortch $3,200 $4,900
Michael Woods II $3,200 $4,500
Curtis Samuel $3,100 $4,800
Devin Duvernay $3,100 $4,800
Jamison Crowder $3,000 $4,600

Wide receiver

Weekly strategy – Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the top pair. Unfortunately, they are both priced outside my planned spending range. I feel more comfortable targeting second-tier guys like Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and CeeDee Lamb. At WR2, I am choosing between Jaxon Smith-NjigbaMalik NabersKhalil Shakir, and Brian Thomas Jr. Continue riding the recent success of Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen at WR3. Tim Patrick and Jalen McMillan are the two punts that should outproduce their price point. 

Fantasy four-pack

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals vs. CLE ($8,500 DK, $9,500 FDChase is on pace for the WR Triple Crown. Even if you throw out his two Week 1 and Week 2 duds, Chase has more receiving yards and receiving TDs than any other WR. Cleveland held Chase to only 5-55-1 in their earlier meeting. He should approach double that here.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings @ SEA ($8,200 DK, $9,000 FD) After a string of six straight scoreless outings, Jefferson has hauled in three TDs, over his last two games. Seattle has allowed the eighth-most WR-receiving TDs, so Jefferson should keep his scoring run going here.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys vs. TB (N/A DK, $8,500 FD) Even with a pair of partial games (because of injury) in the mix, Lamb (shoulder) has the most WR targets since Week 6. During this stretch, he has six or more receptions in all but one game. 

Mike Evans, Buccaneers @ DAL (N/A DK, $8,800 FDThis game should be a shootout. Vegas has it tied for the highest combined total. Over the last four weeks, Dallas has allowed the second-most WR receptions and receiving yards. Since returning from his injury, Evans is averaging 6.5-104 with three TDs.

Sleepers

Keenan Allen, Bears vs. DET ($5,300 DK, $6,200 FD) Allen has four TDs in his last four games while serving as the primary red-zone target for Chicago. This stretch includes a Week 13 meeting with Detroit during which Allen finished with 5-73-2. 

Adam Thielen, Panthers vs. ARI ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD) Since his return in Week 12, Thielen is top-14 in both WR receptions and receiving yards while averaging 6-77. Expect a similar line here, plus a TD.

Tight End DraftKings FanDuel
Brock Bowers $6,500 $7,700
Trey McBride $6,200 $7,500
George Kittle $6,000 $7,600
Jonnu Smith $5,500 $7,000
David Njoku $5,200 $6,500
T.J. Hockenson $4,800 $5,800
Sam LaPorta $4,700 $6,000
Dalton Kincaid $4,600 $5,600
Cade Otton N/A $5,400
Jake Ferguson N/A $5,300
Hunter Henry $4,100 $5,000
Kyle Pitts $4,000 $5,300
Zach Ertz $3,800 $5,200
Cole Kmet $3,700 $5,200
Noah Fant $3,600 $5,000
Brenton Strange $3,500 $5,200
Chig Okonkwo $3,400 $5,100
Grant Calcaterra $3,400 $4,800
Dawson Knox $3,300 $4,900
Mike Gesicki $3,300 $5,000
Jordan Akins $3,200 $5,100
Tyler Higbee $3,200 $4,000
AJ Barner $3,100 $4,700
John Bates $3,000 $4,300
Tommy Tremble $3,000 $4,800
Daniel Bellinger $2,900 $4,900
Ja’Tavion Sanders $2,900 $4,700
Michael Mayer $2,900 $4,600
Ben Sinnott $2,800 $4,400
Josh Oliver $2,800 $4,900
Tyler Conklin $2,800 $4,700
Colby Parkinson $2,700 $4,900

Tight end

Weekly strategy – As usual, Brock Bowers, George Kittle, and Trey McBride are the best options. T.J. Hockenson is the top pivot. I also like David Njoku (hamstring) if he plays, but I am concerned about the QB situation and his various maladies. Hunter Henry also plays here at a discount price. Brenton Strange‘s (shoulder) participation was limited early in the week, but if he plays it will be hard to avoid him.

Fantasy four-pack

Trey McBride, Cardinals @ CAR ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD) Kyler Murray has promised that he will get McBride a receiving TD. We’ve heard that one before. Still, if it’s gonna happen, this is the week. Carolina has given up the most TE touchdowns.

Brock Bowers, Raiders vs. JAX ($6,500 DK, $7,700 FD) The return of Aidan O’Connell returns my trust in Bowers. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most TE scores this season, and they have struggled with EVERY legitimate TE that they have faced this year. 

George Kittle, 49ers @ MIA ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD) Miami had been steady against TEs most of the season. Unfortunately, over their last four games, things have gone pear-shaped. They are averaging 8-85.5-0.5 over that stretch. Kittle has been very reliable this year scoring and/or topping 60 receiving yards in 10/12 games played.

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings @ SEA ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD) Over the last four weeks, Seattle has allowed the most TE receptions and the third-most TE receiving yards. Hockenson’s stats have been just aight since his return, but his best numbers have come in the easiest matchups. This certainly qualifies as one of those.

Sleepers

Brenton Strange, Jaguars @ LV ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FDStrange (shoulder) is currently dealing with an AC joint sprain. The timing stinks since he has been solid while filling in for Evan Engram (shoulder). Still, early reports have him playing this weekend. This is great news since Vegas is bottom-four in every significant statistical category against TEs.

Hunter Henry, Patriots @ BUF ($4,100 DK, $5,000 FDSince Week 7, Henry has been top-seven in TE targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Unfortunately, he has failed to score over that stretch. His odds will improve this week if Buffalo remains without three of their starting DBs who missed last week.

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 227

Talking NFL news, playoff lineup management, DFS tips, and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you NFL news, picking starters for your playoff lineups, and “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways, and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 16

Can this journeyman string together two strong fantasy showings?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-9-0
All-time record: 25-40-3 (39.0%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87 64% 48%
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+ D F

While the 19.9-point projection last week for Philadelphia Eagles running back D’Andre Swift was a flop, some of the actual numbers I forecasted weren’t out of line. He out-touched my expectation by a handful of carries, rushing for eight more yards than projected. The Eagles sent three passes his way, just one shy of my stat line for Swift, but he did nothing with his chances through the air (two catches, one yard).

Not finding the end zone is really what killed this recommendation. He would have finished within the range to be a “win” with a single score … unfortunately, Jalen Hurts stole a pair of rushing touchdowns. It’s frustrating, but that was the true risk in playing Swift.

This week, our attention turns to a journeyman quarterback who has a little bit of gunslinger in his DNA.

Minnesota Vikings QB Nick Mullens vs. Detroit Lions

In his first full start with the Vikings, Mullens posted 303 passing yards, two touchdowns and chipped in 10 rushing yards. While he did toss a pair of interceptions, a 24-plus-point day on the road was a nice early Christmas present for anyone brazen enough to play him.

Now that we have a more recent sample, gamers should feel some comfort in taking a chance on him this week. It really isn’t worth going into great detail about Mullens’ past starting tenures with San Francisco in 2018 and ’20, but he was fantasy-relevant multiple times and proved unafraid to push the ball downfield — that’s extra important because of the vertical threats in Minnesota’s aerial arsenal.

Having Justin Jefferson alone brings a dynamic that cannot be understated, and all of his defensive attention makes Jordan Addison‘s explosiveness that much more valuable. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is a chain-moving safety valve as well as a dangerous outlet in the red zone. Even peripheral options, such as versatile running back Ty Chandler and third receiver K.J. Osborn, can do checkdown damage to help enhance Mullens’ chances of posting QB1 numbers.

[lawrence-related id=486065]

Mullens is at home vs. Detroit, a group that has allowed an average of 22.7 fantasy points to the position this year. In the last six weeks since the Lions came out of the bye, half of the performances have been good for 27 or more points. Ten quarterbacks have gone for at least 21.8 points, and the matchup is 16% easier than average in the last five weeks.

The key factor here will be game script. If the Lions come out and lay an egg on offense, there’s not going to be a need for Mullens to throw much more than 30 times. Detroit has done the best job at limiting running backs this year, so Minnesota will need to put the ball in the air regardless of how many points the Lions hang on the board, but this one could turn into a shootout of sorts if Jared Goff is dealing.

Divisional matchups tend to be unpredictable given how uniquely familiar each squad is with one another, and this is the first meeting between the two in 2023. Minnesota’s offense gets the edge here with the Lions not having extensive opposition research on Mullens’ recent tendencies.

My projection: 24 of 36, 288 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 INT, 6 rushing yards (26.0 fantasy points)

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 207

Talking NFL player news, fantasy football advice, DFS strategy and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you NFL news and a gift in the form of a double dose of “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 187

Week 16 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news and an extra Christmas gift in the form of a double slate of DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen