Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-9-0
All-time record: 25-40-3 (39.0%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
While the 19.9-point projection last week for Philadelphia Eagles running back D’Andre Swift was a flop, some of the actual numbers I forecasted weren’t out of line. He out-touched my expectation by a handful of carries, rushing for eight more yards than projected. The Eagles sent three passes his way, just one shy of my stat line for Swift, but he did nothing with his chances through the air (two catches, one yard).
Not finding the end zone is really what killed this recommendation. He would have finished within the range to be a “win” with a single score … unfortunately, Jalen Hurts stole a pair of rushing touchdowns. It’s frustrating, but that was the true risk in playing Swift.
This week, our attention turns to a journeyman quarterback who has a little bit of gunslinger in his DNA.
Minnesota Vikings QB Nick Mullens vs. Detroit Lions
In his first full start with the Vikings, Mullens posted 303 passing yards, two touchdowns and chipped in 10 rushing yards. While he did toss a pair of interceptions, a 24-plus-point day on the road was a nice early Christmas present for anyone brazen enough to play him.
Now that we have a more recent sample, gamers should feel some comfort in taking a chance on him this week. It really isn’t worth going into great detail about Mullens’ past starting tenures with San Francisco in 2018 and ’20, but he was fantasy-relevant multiple times and proved unafraid to push the ball downfield — that’s extra important because of the vertical threats in Minnesota’s aerial arsenal.
Having Justin Jefferson alone brings a dynamic that cannot be understated, and all of his defensive attention makes Jordan Addison‘s explosiveness that much more valuable. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is a chain-moving safety valve as well as a dangerous outlet in the red zone. Even peripheral options, such as versatile running back Ty Chandler and third receiver K.J. Osborn, can do checkdown damage to help enhance Mullens’ chances of posting QB1 numbers.
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Mullens is at home vs. Detroit, a group that has allowed an average of 22.7 fantasy points to the position this year. In the last six weeks since the Lions came out of the bye, half of the performances have been good for 27 or more points. Ten quarterbacks have gone for at least 21.8 points, and the matchup is 16% easier than average in the last five weeks.
The key factor here will be game script. If the Lions come out and lay an egg on offense, there’s not going to be a need for Mullens to throw much more than 30 times. Detroit has done the best job at limiting running backs this year, so Minnesota will need to put the ball in the air regardless of how many points the Lions hang on the board, but this one could turn into a shootout of sorts if Jared Goff is dealing.
Divisional matchups tend to be unpredictable given how uniquely familiar each squad is with one another, and this is the first meeting between the two in 2023. Minnesota’s offense gets the edge here with the Lions not having extensive opposition research on Mullens’ recent tendencies.
My projection: 24 of 36, 288 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 INT, 6 rushing yards (26.0 fantasy points)
