Primetime DFS Domination: Week 13

Lineup recommendations for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 13 DFS fantasy football primetime slate.

The massive popularity of small DFS slates has propelled us to expand our DFS coverage. I will give you my favorite lineup for the Primetime Slate each week. We will release these as soon as both sites release their pricing.

Recommended Primetime DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($7.8k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.2k), RB Nick Chubb ($6.4k), WR Jerry Jeudy ($5.9k), WR Amari Cooper ($5.2k), WR Devaughn Vele ($4.4k), TE David Njoku ($5.4k), FLEX Mack Hollins ($3.6k), DST Buffalo Bills ($3.0k)

FD Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($9.0k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), RB James Cook ($7.8k), WR Jauan Jennings ($6.1k), WR Courtland Sutton ($7.1k), WR Amari Cooper ($6.1k), TE Dawson Knox ($5.0k), FLEX Jerry Jeudy ($5.8k), DST Cleveland Browns ($4.1k)

If Brock Purdy (shoulder) plays, he instantly becomes the top pivot. That said, you may consider not using him if the weather is atrocious in Buffalo. Bo Nix is the other pivot option. I don’t like Jameis Winston against Denver. If Brandon Allen starts, downgrade all the Niners except George Kittle.

San Fran’s run defense is not the elite unit of yore. James Cook is a serviceable pivot from Christian McCaffrey. Nick Chubb is the clear RB2 this week, unless you spend less elsewhere to fit in both McCaffrey and Cook. I don’t trust either Broncos RBs (Javonte Williams and Audric Estime). Fortunately, you shouldn’t have to use either of them, unless you want to squeeze Kittle in at TE. Jerome FordRay Davis, and Jaleel McLaughlin are punt options, but, again, you shouldn’t have to go that far.

[lawrence-related id=496859]

Unless you go dirt cheap, your WR1 will be Deebo Samuel or Courtland Sutton. At WR2 and WR3, you are choosing two of Jerry Jeudy (in the revenge game, albeit against Patrick Surtain II), Jauan JenningsKhalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman (concussion), and Keon Coleman (wrist). You also can punt with Devaughn VeleMack HollinsCurtis Samuel, or Elijah Moore. Watch the Buffalo weather, if winds and heavy snow occur during the game it will increase the value of both Samuels (and the tight ends) and decrease the value of the field stretchers.

George Kittle is pricey, and the matchup isn’t optimal. Still, he is an elite TE. Spending down at RB1 or WR2 should get him under your cap. If the weather is bad, he would be in for a load of targets. Dalton Kincaid (knee) is out, so Dawson Knox gets an enormous boost and is the top TE pivot on the slate. Plus, his price allows you to get both top RBs in on FD if you avoid David Njoku. Denver just released their most talented (although oft-injured) TE. This leaves Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Nate Adkins … YUCK!

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 13

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 13 DFS fantasy football.

Are you in need of a respite after spending the holiday with your family? Perhaps the best cure for the holiday blues is to plop down in front of the TV for six hours while eating leftovers – and what can make that even better? When you’re watching football on that TV and have money on the game!

Recommended DFS lineups

*Note: FanDuel and Fanball include the Sunday night game on their Main Slate. DraftKings doesn’t include them, so the pricing is listed as N/A.

DK Lineup: QB Justin Herbert ($5.6k), RB Tony Pollard ($6.3k), RB Bucky Irving ($5.8k), WR A.J. Brown ($8.3k), WR Nico Collins ($7.9k), WR Quentin Johnston ($5.0k), TE Cade Otton ($4.5k), FLEX Mark Andrews ($3.9k), DST New York Jets ($2.5k)

FD Lineup: QB Justin Herbert ($7.9k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), RB Bucky Irving ($7.2k), WR A.J. Brown ($8.8k), WR Ladd McConkey ($6.3k), WR David Moore ($5.1k), TE Cade Otton ($6.2K), FLEX Gus Edwards ($5.9k), DST New York Jets ($3.7k)

FB Lineup: QB Baker Mayfield ($6.3k), RB Bucky Irving ($5.9k), RB Gus Edwards ($3.7k), WR A.J. Brown ($7.6k), WR Mike Evans ($7.1k), WR/TE Ladd McConkey ($5.6k), TE Cade Otton ($4.7k), FLEX Christian McCaffrey ($7.8k), SUPERFLEX Justin Herbert ($5.7k)

*Note: Player salaries are color-coded based on expected output. Red = Less than 2.5x value, Black = 2.5x valueGreen = Greater than 3x value.

Quarterback DraftKings FanDuel
Josh Allen N/A $9,000
Lamar Jackson $8,000 $8,700
Jalen Hurts $7,700 $9,200
Jayden Daniels $7,200 $8,800
Joe Burrow $7,000 $8,300
Baker Mayfield $6,600 $8,500
Brock Purdy N/A $8,100
C.J. Stroud $6,400 $8,000
Kyler Murray $6,100 $7,700
Kirk Cousins $6,000 $6,900
Sam Darnold $5,900 $7,200
Matthew Stafford $5,800 $7,400
Russell Wilson $5,700 $7,500
Drake Maye $5,600 $6,800
Justin Herbert $5,600 $7,900
Anthony Richardson $5,500 $7,800
Geno Smith $5,500 $7,600
Trevor Lawrence $5,400 $7,100
Aaron Rodgers $5,300 $7,000
Derek Carr $5,100 $7,300
Will Levis $5,000 $6,700
Mac Jones $4,900 $6,400
Bryce Young $4,700 $6,600
Brandon Allen N/A $6,500

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Baker MayfieldC.J. Stroud, and Jalen Hurts are the top options. Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, and Justin Herbert (my favorite) are the top pivots. Will Levis and Bryce Young are the punt options.

Fantasy four-pack

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ BAL ($7,700 DK, $9,200 FDBaltimore has allowed 400 more passing yards than the next closest team. They also have allowed the third-most passing TDs. Hurts has only scored two total TDs in the last two games. This should keep his ownership reduced. Stack him with A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers @ CAR ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FDMayfield has scored the third-most total TDs among all QBs and Carolina has allowed the fourth-most total TDs to the position. He won’t have to throw in this game, but he will, especially if Carolina can keep it close. Four total TDs are on the table.

C.J. Stroud, Texans @ JAX ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD) One team to have allowed more total QB touchdowns than Carolina is Jacksonville. They also have allowed the second-most passing yards and the third-most QB rushing yards. In three career games versus Jacksonville, Stroud is averaging 310-2, with an additional 26 rushing yards per game and one rushing score.

Josh Allen, Bills vs. SF (N/A DK, $9,000 FD) Over the last two weeks, Allen has only three total TDs. Fortunately, he has kept his value up by posting over 100 rushing yards during that span. San Francisco has been very solid against the pass this season, but they have allowed the seventh-most QB rushing scores.

Sleepers

Justin Herbert, Chargers @ ATL ($5,600 DK, $7,900 FDThe $7,900 price tag on FD hardly qualifies as a discount, but his DK price rocks. Atlanta has allowed multiple passing TDs in every game since Week 4. Meanwhile, Herbert has multiple TDs in four of his last five games. 

Will Levis, Titans @ WAS ($5,000 DK, $6,700 FDLevis is playing YOLO ball right now, throwing for eight completions of greater than 20 yards over his last two games. Meanwhile, Washington has allowed eight passing TDs of greater than 20 yards, including three in their last four games.

Running back DraftKings FanDuel
Saquon Barkley $8,500 $9,200
Joe Mixon $8,000 $9,500
Derrick Henry $7,800 $9,000
Christian McCaffrey N/A $8,800
Alvin Kamara $7,700 $8,300
Breece Hall $7,500 $8,700
Bijan Robinson $7,300 $8,500
Kyren Williams $7,200 $8,400
Kenneth Walker III $7,000 $8,000
Jonathan Taylor $6,900 $7,900
James Cook N/A $7,800
J.K. Dobbins $6,800 $7,500
Chuba Hubbard $6,700 $7,400
James Conner $6,600 $7,600
Aaron Jones $6,500 $7,700
Tony Pollard $6,300 $7,000
Chase Brown $6,200 $7,300
Brian Robinson Jr. $6,100 $7,100
Najee Harris $6,000 $6,900
Rhamondre Stevenson $5,900 $6,400
Bucky Irving $5,800 $7,200
Travis Etienne Jr. $5,700 $6,600
Austin Ekeler $5,600 $6,000
Jaylen Warren $5,500 $5,800
Jeremy McNichols $5,400 $6,700
Rachaad White $5,300 $6,500
Tank Bigsby $5,200 $6,300
Kenneth Gainwell $5,100 $5,400
Braelon Allen $5,000 $5,300
Tyler Allgeier $5,000 $5,700
Antonio Gibson $4,900 $5,000
Justice Hill $4,800 $5,600
Jonathon Brooks $4,700 $5,300
Dameon Pierce $4,600 $5,100
Cam Akers $4,500 $5,500
Sean Tucker $4,500 $5,000
Tyjae Spears $4,400 $5,500
Zach Charbonnet $4,400 $5,400
Gus Edwards $4,300 $5,900
Ray Davis N/A $5,200
Trey Benson $4,300 $5,200
D’Ernest Johnson $4,000 $5,100
Jordan Mason N/A $5,000

Running back

Weekly strategy – Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon are both pricy but safe RB1 options. To save money, pivot to Kyren Williams. I’m concerned about chasing points with Saquon Barkley and will fade him. At RB2, use Tony Pollard, assuming Tyjae Spears (concussion), remains out. Otherwise, consider Chuba HubbardBucky Irving, and Rhamondre Stevenson. There are three injury-replacement punt options: Jeremy McNicholsBraelon Allen, and Gus Edwards.

Fantasy four-pack

Joe Mixon, Texans @ JAX ($8,000 DK, $9,500 FD) Over their last three games, Jacksonville has allowed 602 rushing yards and five rushing TDs. Mixon laid a goose egg last week. This, paired with his high price, should keep his ownership down. Before that dud, Mixon had scored 10 TDs over his prior six games. He also topped 100 total yards in five of the six games. 

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers @ BUF (N/A DK, $8,800 FD) McCaffrey continues to underperform since his return from injury. Brandon Allen‘s presence is the reason for last week’s performance. Brock Purdy (shoulder) is has a chance to return this weekend, so that would help CMC return to his pre-injury status as the best RB in football, but missed most of the year comes with rust to remove. It will help that Buffalo ranks in the bottom two in RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving scores allowed.

Derrick Henry, Ravens vs. PHI ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FDOnly one team (the Chargers) has allowed fewer total TDs to opposing RBs than Philly. That said, they have allowed a rushing TD in back-to-back games. Plus, this is Derrick Henry. Last week was the first time he had not scored at least one TD all season. His opponent, not surprisingly, was the Chargers. Even in that shutout, he reached 140 yards.

Kyren Williams, Rams @ NO ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FDWilliams’ production has waned since the return of Los Angeles’ top WRs. That said, he scored last week against a tough Philadelphia defense. This gave him at least one TD in eight of 11 games. Meanwhile, since Week 5, New Orleans has allowed 28 PPR points per game to opposing RBs.

Sleepers

Tony Pollard, Titans @ WAS ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FDThis tout comes down to whether or not Tyjae Spears (concussion) plays. Over their last four games, Washington has allowed 156 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. If Spears is out, this will all go to Pollard, making him a slate-breaker. Even if Spears plays, Pollard should score and approach 100 total yards.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers @ CAR ($5,800 DK, $7,200 FD) Over their last two games, Irving leads all Buccaneers backs in every category. He also has scored twice. Carolina is the worst team in the league against opposing RBs, allowing an average of 29.5 PPR points to the position this season. 

Wide Receiver DraftKings FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase $8,600 $9,300
A.J. Brown $8,300 $8,800
Justin Jefferson $8,100 $8,900
Nico Collins $7,900 $9,100
Puka Nacua $7,600 $8,700
Cooper Kupp $7,400 $9,000
Terry McLaurin $7,100 $7,900
Davante Adams $7,000 $7,000
Garrett Wilson $6,900 $8,000
George Pickens $6,800 $7,400
Mike Evans $6,700 $8,300
Tee Higgins $6,600 $7,600
Drake London $6,500 $7,300
DK Metcalf $6,400 $7,800
Jaxon Smith-Njigba $6,300 $7,700
Deebo Samuel Sr. N/A $7,200
Zay Flowers $6,200 $7,100
Ladd McConkey $6,100 $6,300
Marvin Harrison Jr. $6,000 $6,900
Tank Dell $5,900 $6,400
DeVonta Smith $5,800 $7,500
Calvin Ridley $5,700 $6,800
Darnell Mooney $5,600 $6,500
Brian Thomas Jr. $5,500 $6,700
Josh Downs $5,400 $6,400
Jordan Addison $5,300 $6,300
Michael Pittman Jr. $5,200 $6,600
Khalil Shakir N/A $6,200
Amari Cooper N/A $6,100
Jauan Jennings N/A $6,100
Keon Coleman N/A $5,900
Xavier Legette $5,100 $5,800
Quentin Johnston $5,000 $6,200
Mack Hollins N/A $5,700
Alec Pierce $4,900 $5,600
Adam Thielen $4,800 $5,800
DeMario Douglas $4,700 $5,600
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,500 $6,000
Tyler Lockett $4,500 $5,600
Noah Brown $4,400 $5,500
Rashod Bateman $4,400 $5,500
Joshua Palmer $4,300 $5,500
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,300 $5,900
Ray-Ray McCloud III $4,300 $5,700
Curtis Samuel N/A $5,400
Ricky Pearsall N/A $5,300
Cedrick Wilson Jr. $4,200 $5,000
Diontae Johnson $4,200 $5,800
Michael Wilson $4,200 $5,400
John Metchie III $4,100 $5,000
Demarcus Robinson $4,000 $5,700
Mike Williams $4,000 $5,400
Sterling Shepard $4,000 $5,500
Adonai Mitchell $3,900 $5,000
Parker Washington $3,900 $5,500
Jahan Dotson $3,800 $5,200
Tyler Boyd $3,800 $5,000
Jalen Coker $3,700 $5,300
Jalen McMillan $3,700 $5,200
Andrei Iosivas $3,600 $5,200
Trey Palmer $3,600 $5,100
Tutu Atwell $3,600 $4,800
David Moore $3,500 $5,100
Jalen Nailor $3,500 $5,200
Kendrick Bourne $3,500 $5,000
Greg Dortch $3,400 $4,900
Kayshon Boutte $3,400 $5,100
Tim Jones $3,400 $5,300
Calvin Austin III $3,300 $5,400
Olamide Zaccheaus $3,300 $4,800
Ja’Lynn Polk $3,200 $4,700
Kevin Austin Jr. $3,200 $4,700
Nelson Agholor $3,200 $5,000
Van Jefferson $3,200 $4,600
Dyami Brown $3,100 $4,700
Tylan Wallace $3,100 $4,900
Johnny Wilson $3,000 $5,100

Wide receiver

Weekly strategy – A.J. Brown and Nico Collins are the top two WRs. I’d love to roster both of them, but to do so, you must go cheap at RB1. The Rams’ duo are the top pivots. At WR2, choose from Mike EvansMarvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Drake London. I would stack one of those four with my QB. To save money, consider Calvin RidleyDarnell Mooney, or Michael Pittman Jr. I wouldn’t stack them, though. Xavier Legette, “Iron Hands” Quentin JohnstonRashod Bateman, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are the best choices for WR3. You also can use Demarcus Robinson there if you don’t use Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp. Other punt options include Noah Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and David Moore

Fantasy four-pack

A.J. Brown, Eagles @ BAL ($8,300, $8,800 FDBaltimore has allowed the most receiving yards to the position this season. In addition , the Ravens have allowed the second-most WR touchdowns and receptions. They have particularly struggled with WR1s, allowing 11 TDs to that spot over their last eight games.

Nico Collins, Texans @ JAX ($7,900, $9,100 FDJacksonville has allowed 10 passing TDs of greater than 20 yards this season. Collins should get in on the fun this week as he has posted 19-255-2 on 24 targets against this defense in their last two meetings.

Puka Nacua, Rams @ NO ($7,600 DK, $8,700 FD) You can use Nacua or Cooper Kupp. Only four teams have allowed more WR receiving yards this season. Ignoring the game where he was ejected, Nacua has averaged 8-111 since returning from the IR.

Mike Evans, Buccaneers @ CAR ($6,700 DK, $8,300 FDIn his first game back, Evans led the Buccaneers in receiving yards. With his sea legs back, expect Evans to go off here. Against Carolina, he has scored and/or topped 90 yards in 11 of 19 career meetings.

Sleepers

Xavier Legette, Panthers vs. TB ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FDThe Panthers have spread the ball around all year, but Legette leads them in all the pertinent receiving categories. The Buccaneers offense will force Carolina to throw the ball to keep up. I would consider David Moore here, too, if Jalen Coker (quad) remains out.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans @ WAS ($4,300 DK, $5,900 FD) Westbrook-Ikhine has surpassed three receptions in exactly one game this season. Still, he has scored in six of seven games. A 35% conversion rate is unsustainable, but enjoy the fun while you can.

Tight End DraftKings FanDuel
George Kittle N/A $7,800
Trey McBride $5,800 $6,900
Taysom Hill $5,000 $7,000
Evan Engram $4,800 $5,800
Dalton Kincaid N/A $5,700
Kyle Pitts $4,600 $5,400
Cade Otton $4,500 $6,200
T.J. Hockenson $4,400 $6,500
Dallas Goedert $4,300 $6,000
Hunter Henry $4,200 $5,100
Mike Gesicki $4,100 $5,300
Will Dissly $4,000 $5,200
Mark Andrews $3,900 $5,600
Zach Ertz $3,800 $5,400
Isaiah Likely $3,700 $5,500
Dawson Knox N/A $5,000
Noah Fant $3,600 $4,900
Pat Freiermuth $3,500 $5,100
Ja’Tavion Sanders $3,400 $4,600
Dalton Schultz $3,300 $5,200
Austin Hooper $3,200 $5,000
Chig Okonkwo $3,100 $4,900
Juwan Johnson $3,100 $5,300
AJ Barner $3,000 $4,900
Foster Moreau $3,000 $4,800
Tyler Conklin $3,000 $4,800
Colby Parkinson $2,900 $4,800
Darnell Washington $2,900 $4,700
Tommy Tremble $2,800 $4,600
Davis Allen $2,700 $4,700
Brenton Strange $2,500 $4,700
Cade Stover $2,500 $4,900

Tight end

Weekly strategy – Cade Otton is my favorite play this week. He should have minimal ownership after last week’s dud. In a soft matchup, play Trey McBride, who is overdue for a TD. T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, and Mark Andrews are the pivots. You shouldn’t need to punt here, but if you do, use Pat Freiermuth.

Fantasy four-pack

Trey McBride, Cardinals @ MIN ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FDSince Week 5, McBride has averaged 6.8-80. Now, we just need him to score TDs, too. Minnesota has allowed only two TE scores all season, so we may have to wait another week, but the yards will be there.

Cade Otton, Buccaneers @ CAR ($4,500 DK, $6,200 FDOnly two teams have allowed more yards to the TE position, and no team has allowed more touchdowns. Otton posted a dud last week with the return of Mike Evans, but that was against the third-best TE defense in terms of yards allowed. His ownership will be down as he goes off this week. 

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings vs. ARI ($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD) With teams triple-teaming Justin Jefferson, Hockenson posted an epic game last week. This gave him two solid games out of four since his return from injury. Arizona is mid against the position, but if they pick their poison in Jefferson, Hock will feast again.

George Kittle, 49ers @ BUF (N/A DK, $7,800 FD) Buffalo is very good against the position, but they allowed a pair of scores by Noah Gray last week. Kittle is elite enough to get it done, regardless. He has now scored in seven of the nine games that he has played. Just consider this more of a floor game, which is still probably 6-50-1.

Sleepers

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. PHI ($3,900 DK, $5,600 FDAndrews a sleeper? That DK price seems to say so. Philly was elite against the position to start the season, but three of the last five TE1s to face them have reached double-digit PPR points.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers @ CIN ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD) Cincy ranks fifth-worst in both yards allowed and receptions to the TE position. They also have allowed the second-most TE touchdowns. Freiermuth is no sure thing, but the matchup (and DK price) screams to give him a chance.

Thanksgiving DFS Domination

Lineup recommendations for DraftKings and FanDuel for the Thanksgiving Day DFS fantasy football slate.

Every year, we give thanks for the ability to belly up to the turkey buffet and stuff ourselves to the gills. We also give thanks for the ability to stuff our wallets to the gills with a second helping of DFS deliciousness. Just be careful not to fall asleep before making your late swaps.

Recommended Primetime DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Cooper Rush ($4.8k), RB Josh Jacobs ($7.0k), RB Rico Dowdle ($5.5k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($7.3k), WR Jayden Reed ($5.7k), WR Keenan Allen ($5.1k), TE Jonnu Smith ($4.3k), FLEX De’Von Achane ($7.7k), DST Chicago Bears ($2.3k)

FD Lineup: QB Caleb Williams ($7.2k), RB Josh Jacobs ($7.8k), RB Rico Dowdle ($6.1k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.6k), WR Keenan Allen ($6.5k), WR Jaylen Waddle ($6.3k), TE Luke Schoonmaker ($5.0k), FLEX De’Von Achane ($9.0k), DST Chicago Bears ($3.5k)

FB Lineup: QB Caleb Williams ($5.9k), RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($7.4k), RB Rico Dowdle ($5.5k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($7.2k), WR Keenan Allen ($4.6k), WR/TE Tyreek Hill ($7.3k), TE Jonnu Smith ($4.2k), FLEX De’Von Achane ($7.5k), SFLEX Cooper Rush ($5.4k)

Considering their tricky matchups, I don’t love the price tag on Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff. Still, they each offer some variance from my preferred pair of Caleb Williams and Cooper Rush. To use one of the more expensive options, you must go cheaper elsewhere (likely RB1 or WR2). Tommy DeVito (assuming his arm is fine) is cheaper than everyone else, consider a lineup featuring him alongside two of Malik NabersWan’Dale RobinsonDarius Slayton, and Theo Johnson (back).

At RB1, you are choosing between Josh Jacobs and Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs gets a huge bump if David Montgomery (shoulder) ends up missing this game because of his shoulder. For RB2, it comes down to either Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Rico Dowdle. I prefer Dowdle. D’Andre Swift is on my bench this week. I’m going with De’Von Achane as my FLEX. His price and late-game status give you the ability to sub in anyone if the early game goes afoul. Based on recent usage, Roschon Johnson and Jaylen Wright are the only safe punts.

If you don’t use CeeDee Lamb at WR1, replace him with either Malik Nabers or Tyreek Hill. I’d prefer to fade Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) in an abysmal matchup. Jameson Williams, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed, and Jaylen Waddle are my WR2 choices. I’m leaning toward Reed with Romeo Doubs (concussion) likely out. At WR3, you can swap in Rome Odunze, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Christian Watson, or Brandin Cooks (knee). If Cooks doesn’t play, Jalen Tolbert also becomes a WR3 threat. Punt options to consider are Dontayvion WicksTim Patrick, and Kalif Raymond.

Jonnu Smith has a great matchup and a solid price. I may fade him to save money on FD. If I do, it will be for Tucker Kraft or Luke Schoonmaker. You could also opt for Sam LaPorta. His value will be astronomical if St. Brown misses this game. Theo Johnson is a potential punt, but one that isn’t necessary. Avoid Cole Kmet at all costs.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

Six bye teams makes settling on a safer floor a little more important this week.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 5-7-0
All-time record: 24-38-3 (39.2%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4 138.8 80.3
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B-

The one thing I most worried about last week when recommending Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew was the possibility of Jonathan Taylor defying the odds and stealing the show, which is what happened. Tampa Bay had been stout vs. running backs basically all year, but the star back ran for two touchdowns and Indy didn’t have to throw a ton. Fortunately, Minshew punched in one of his own, which saved my bacon since he failed to throw for a touchdown.

This week, we stick with the quarterback position in a week that features six teams on bye, and four of them tend to be worthy of fantasy attention. While I’m not entirely confident in this week’s choice, he makes for a valid boom-or-bust play with the fake playoffs are looming.

Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson at Houston Texans

Even during Denver’s recent five-game winning streak, Wilson has not thrown for more than 259 yards in any outing, and he has topped out at 20.7 PPR points. A major reason for Denver’s success is the coaching staff has taken the ball out of his hands in an effort to limit his opportunities for making mistakes, which has paid off. Wilson hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, and the Broncos have relied on the running game to help alleviate pressure. In Denver’s six wins this year, Wilson has thrown fewer than 30 passes in all but one outing, making efficiency paramount with respect to his fantasy output.

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During the recent winning streak, Wilson has averaged 18.9 fantasy points and would rank 15th in per-game results at the position (among QBs with at least four starts). He has outperformed Patrick Mahomes in that window. In this upcoming bye-heavy week, gamers lose Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs from the 14 passers ranked ahead of Wilson. But frequent starters Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are off this week to further diminish the pool. Translation: Our standards of what we constitute as a successful fantasy play should be lowered.

On Houston’s side of this matchup, the defense has allowed quarterbacks to average the 11th-most fantasy points per game on the year, but that number jumps to No. 7 in the last five weeks. QBs have rushed for a pair of scores in that span, and Wilson has one to his credit, too, but any ground-based success should be considered a bonus here. Removing the rushing TDs positions Houston as the ninth-weakest unit at defending signal callers in that period of play.

In terms of raw numbers, this level of success looks like 285 yards, a TD every 16.1 completions, and an interception every 42.3 attempts. The yardage sits fifth, whereas the scoring rate is a neutral 17th. Getting back to Wilson’s need for efficiency, the Texans have yielded the ninth-highest rate of fantasy points per play and the third-best yards per completion.

Furthermore, Houston has held RBs to the sixth-fewest rushing yards, on average, since Week 7, and this is a neutral matchup for getting into the end zone on the ground.

In closing, don’t feel strongly compelled to start Wilson if there’s a clearer option present. If the target is to start a solid player with a quality matchup outlook, ample weaponry, and a reasonably sturdy floor, Wilson is a low-end starting option.

My projection: 20-of-30 attempts, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 5 rushes, 23 yards (23.7 fantasy points)

Fantasy football sleepers to play in Week 13

Check out these sleepers to play in fantasy football for Week 13.

It’s here. Part II of the bye-pocalypse is upon us, and the mad scramble to find sleepers for our starting lineups in fantasy football has commenced.

And it’s as rough as we expected it to be. Six teams are on a bye in Week 13 including the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings.

As it pertains to the sleepers, the options aren’t as plentiful as they would be in a typical week. But that’s not going to stop us from trying to find some diamonds in the rough as managers look to make the final push for the playoffs.

Don’t forget to check out The Huddle’s weekly PPR projections and rankings to get a better idea of how we feel about the upcoming week as a whole.

Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em: Week 13

Check out these start/sit decisions for fantasy football in Week 13.

Following the Thursday night game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, it’s time for fantasy football managers to stare at their lineups contemplating start/sit decisions.

As the weekend approaches, there are only two teams on a bye in Week 13: the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers.

Doing start/sit articles can be a little challenging. The players featured on the list below should not be taken as “must starts” or “must sits.” Instead, these are more suggestions on what we believe managers should do with fringe players heading into the weekend. The choice is ultimately up to the manager.

Just because a player is listed as a “start” doesn’t mean he should be put in the lineup over the secure, bona fide studs. Vice versa for the “sits.” If there’s no better option on the waiver wire or the bench, a manager shouldn’t automatically sit the player. That’s why these can be tricky waters to navigate.

You also can check out our start and sit bench list for Week 13: