We have hit Thanksgiving Week, and along with the turkey, stuffing and sharing the table with obnoxious relatives, the week brings us the trade deadline in a good number of fantasy leagues.
So while you’re putting together the perfect relish tray and agonizing over who’s going to have to sit next to Uncle Earl, hopefully you’re also concocting some personally beneficial late-November fantasy deals — i.e. shipping off some sell-high players and/or acquiring some buy-low targets.
With those ideal trade scenarios in mind, this week’s TT&T is highlighting a prime buy-low and sell-high candidate at each of the four main fantasy positions. We’ll also throw in a few other names as well to help get your rosters in the best possible shape for the final fantasy playoff push.
One quick qualifier: These trade and player suggestions obviously are not one size fits all as they depend largely on the overall context of each roster, league and scoring format.
Here goes, starting (as usual) at …
Quarterbacks
Buy low: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott has slipped to ninth in the fantasy QB rankings, averaging 24.8 points per game (Huddle Performance scoring), coming off two of this three worst outings of the season, including Sunday’s season-low 4.64-point dud in Kansas City.
But better times appear to be ahead.
Prescott’s top two wide receivers, Amari Cooper (COVID-19 protocol) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion), likely will both be out Thanksgiving Day, but should be there for the remainder of the schedule. And valuable left tackle Tyron Smith figures to be back Thursday following a three-game ankle-injury absence.
And then there’s the Cowboys’ stretch-run schedule.
Dallas’ Week 12-17 slate, which will take us through the fantasy championships in the majority of leagues, is the second-most favorable itinerary for fantasy quarterbacks, according to The Huddle’s highly useful Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool. That includes two matchups in a three-week span (Weeks 14 and 16) with the Washington Football Team, which is surrendering a league-most 25.5 points, on average, to opposing fantasy quarterbacks.
So if the Dak fantasy general manager in your league is distraught and ready to deal, make the move and acquire what should be a top-five QB over the final six games of the fantasy season.
Other buy-low QBs: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Derek Carr (Raiders), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
Sell high: Patrick Mahomes
We may be a week too late on Mahomes’ peak sell-high value as he followed up his season-best 40.3-fantasy-point performance with his third-worst showing (14.1 points) in Sunday’s offensive-showdown-that-wasn’t vs. the Cowboys, but he still ranks sixth among fantasy QBs, averaging 26.3 points per game.
Perhaps, prospective buyers will only look at that and not realize that Mahomes has totaled 18.75 fantasy points or fewer in four of his last five outings, including a pair of games without a passing or rushing touchdown.
And, on paper, the Chiefs’ remaining schedule doesn’t offer much hope for a big finish, either.
In fact, including the Chiefs’ Week 12 bye, it’s the league’s least favorable fantasy QB slate on the board, with three “bad” matchups (vs. league’s top quarter of teams allowing fewest fantasy QB points per outing) and no “good” matchups (vs. top eight teams allowing most fantasy QB points).
Certainly sell if you’re in a one-QB league and have another top-10 fantasy QB option.
Other sell-high QBs: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Taylor Heinicke (Washington), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
Running backs
Buy low: Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Denver’s second-round rookie is among the league leaders in broken tackles but is averaging only 10.1 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) and 12.7 touches per game in his 50-50 timeshare with veteran RB Melvin Gordon.
Williams has also only tallied two TDs on the season and eclipsed 15 fantasy points just twice as well.
Don’t be surprised if things shift, though, in the rookie’s favor coming out of the Broncos’ Week 11 bye.
Gordon is averaging 13.9 touches and 13.1 fantasy points, thanks largely to his team-high seven TDs, but also has lost costly fumbles in two of his three games prior to the bye, and that could tilt the split in Williams’ favor.
Gordon has played well otherwise, though, and still will be involved going forward. But his two-year, $16 million contract is up after this season, and Williams certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie to see more playing time late in the season — especially if the 5-5 Broncos fall further out of playoff contention.
If so, a tasty stretch run awaits. Denver’s Week 12-17 schedule sets up as the league’s second-most favorable for fantasy RBs, including back-to-back-to-back plus-matchups against the Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals and Las Vegas Raiders in Weeks 14-16.
Other buy-low RBs: Antonio Gibson (Washington), James Robinson (Jaguars), Miles Sanders (Eagles)
Sell high: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Conner has averaged the fourth most fantasy points (25.5) among running backs over the last three weeks, and is tied for second in the league with the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler with 13 total TDs on the season.
Seven of those scores for Conner have come in the last four weeks while Arizona running mate Chase Edmonds has been sidelined in three of those contests with an ankle injury. Not including the Week 9 contest in which he was injured on his one and only snap, Edmonds was averaging 13.1 touches per game, and reports say he is on track to come off the injured reserve list in Week 13 following the team’s Week 12 bye.
That’s not good fantasy news for Conner, who has been averaging 21.3 touches in the three games Edmonds has missed. Conner averaged 12.5 touches in the eight contests playing alongside a healthy Edmonds.
And, now, with the Cards’ bye week at hand anyway, it’s time to sell Conner before his near-peak value wanes.
Other sell-high RBs: Myles Gaskin (Dolphins), Nick Chubb (Browns), Damien Harris (Patriots)
Wide receivers
Buy low: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
This buy-low comes with a relative asterisk as Allen currently ranks 14th among widouts with an average of 16.7 PPR points per game.
But while Allen does have one of the highest fantasy floors at the position — at least 10 fantasy points in all 10 games — his 20.2-point outing Sunday night was only his second 20-point-plus fantasy game of the season.
It’s all about a relative lack of TDs as Allen remains stuck on two, despite being tied for the third-most targets in the league and also ranking third in receptions with 74. Since Week 9, no wide receiver has had more targets or receptions than Allen’s 37 and 29, respectively, but Allen’s Week 8 TD grab vs. the New England Patriots stands as his only touchdown since Week 3.
And with the Bolts defense continuing to surrender points aplenty — they’re allowing the sixth most at 26.5 per game — QB Justin Herbert will still need to air it out early and often.
Already owning one of the league’s healthiest team target shares at 27.5 percent, Allen is due some positive TD regression, and acquiring him now will put his new fantasy team in prime position to fully capitalize on it.
Other buy-low WRs: A.J. Brown (Titans), D.J. Moore (Panthers), Calvin Ridley (Falcons)
Sell high: Elijah Moore, New York Jets
Over the last three weeks, only Vikings super sophomore Justin Jefferson has totaled more fantasy points (77.1) than this Jets rookie (70.4).
Credit Moore’s position-high four TD grabs over that span on 25 targets and 18 receptions, meaning that he’s found the end zone once every 4.5 catches.
That’s far from sustainable — especially when you factor in the Jets’ soon-to-be-changing-again situation at quarterback.
Replacing injured rookie Zach Wilson, Mike White, Josh Johnson and Joe Flacco have thrown all the passes in the team’s last four games, and that trio has averaged 355.8 yards per contest with 10 total TDs and six interceptions.
In the Jets’ first six games, though, Wilson averaged 194.7 yards with four total TD passes and nine picks as Moore caught just 9-of-26 targets for 79 yards and no TDs during that span.
Wilson, who is due to resume the reins any week now, and Moore certainly figure to be much better and more in sync down the stretch. But if any other fantasy owner in your league is willing to give you anything close to low-end WR1/high-end WR2 value in exchange for Moore right now, definitely give that offer a long, thorough look.
Other sell-high WRs: Brandon Aiyuk (49ers), Marquez Callaway (Saints), Darnell Mooney (Bears)
Tight ends
Buy low: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
The rookie out of Florida had back-to-back outings in mid-October with 26.9 and 23.3 fantasy points, respectively, but has only totaled 28.4 fantasy points (17th among tight ends) in the four games since, including 5.9 last Thursday night against the Patriots — his third-worst outing of the season.
Pitts, though, still was tied for sixth at the position with a team-high 25 targets during that four-game span, but he has snared fewer than 50 percent of those with 12 grabs for 164 yards and no TDs.
That means Pitts remains stuck on one TD in 10 games and 69 targets this season — the fewest among the 10 tight ends who have at least 52 targets on the season.
All of this may have the Pitts owner in your league ready to part with the rookie at a bargain price. If so, be quick to pounce with Matt Ryan and Atlanta still counting heavily on Pitts with Ridley, the team’s No. 1 WR, remaining out for personal reasons.
Other buy-low TEs: Mike Gesicki (Dolphins), T.J. Hockenson (Lions), Logan Thomas (Washington)
Sell high: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
Ertz had a monster Sunday in Seattle, reeling in eight of his nine targets for 88 yards and two TDs to pace all Week 11 tight ends with 28.8 fantasy points.
That’s only 9.7 fewer fantasy points, though, than Ertz totaled in his first four games with the Cards since coming over in the October trade with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Arizona now has its bye in Week 12, and afterward QB Kyler Murray should be back at the helm and No. 1 wideout DeAndre Hopkins back on the field.
That will mean more passes downfield and outside the numbers and fewer looks for Ertz, who had his best game in three years Sunday.
Productive tight ends aren’t easy to find, but if you have another reliable top-seven option on your roster, capitalize and sell high on Ertz while you can.
Other sell-high TEs: Hunter Henry (Patriots), Dawson Knox (Bills), Dalton Schultz (Cowboys)
