Tag: fantasy football sleeper

Will Odell Beckham Jr. even matter in fantasy this season?

Does OBJ have one last worthwhile season left in the tank?

In terms of name value, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. still moves the needle. When it comes to production on the field, however, OBJ has had little impact since his first season with the Cleveland Browns, when he caught 74 passes for 1,035 yards and four touchdowns in 2019. That includes last season as Beckham posted a 35-565-3 line with the Baltimore Ravens.

There was some hope last offseason that joining forces with quarterback Lamar Jackson would usher in a statistical renaissance for Beckham, but he started slowly, suffered an ankle injury after just two weeks, and didn’t top the 50-yard mark in a game until Nov. 5. Even while Jackson played at an MVP level, it was rookie WR Zay Flowers who ended up emerging as the de facto WR1, though Beckham did finish second in yardage while averaging a career-high 16.1 yards per catch.

A free agent once again, Beckham landed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins. Despite checking in as the No. 3 receiver behind receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the speed-oriented nature of head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense at least creates a level of intrigue for Beckham. As noted, the veteran hasn’t had much of an impact over the past four years, but the time he looked the most dangerous was during his postseason run with the Los Angeles Rams in 2021: 21 receptions, 288 yards, and two TDs in four games before tearing his ACL during the Super Bowl.

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Despite some lean years, it’s hard to argue that Beckham won’t have an opportunity here. Last season, the Dolphins led the NFL in passing offense, but only Hill (1,799 yards) and Waddle (1,014) finished in the NFL’s top-100 in receiving yardage. The rest of Miami’s receivers — Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios, Robbie Chosen, River Cracraft, and Chase Claypool — combined for 66 receptions, 807 yards, and six touchdowns; none of them reached 300 yards on the season.

On paper, Beckham is an upgrade, and he brings a couple of silver linings from last year into his new role. First, there was his aforementioned 16.1 YPC, which speaks to some resurgent big-play ability, and second, he played in 14 games, matching his highest total since 2019. If he can stay healthy and develop some chemistry with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Beckham has a chance to emerge as a dangerous third option for the Dolphins.

Fantasy football outlook

The style and prolific nature of Miami’s offense dictates you at least keep tabs on the veteran, however, and if OBJ shows signs of being a meaningful contributor he could be worth scooping up as roster depth with a little upside. The likeliest path to fantasy production is an injury taking Waddle or Hill off the field for a long stretch of time.

Entering his age-32 season and four full years removed from his last semi-impactful effort, Beckham isn’t someone you can rely on.

Fantasy football: Can Mike Gesicki rebound in 2024?

Is there a realistic chance Gesicki bounces back in 2024?

A second-round pick of the Miami Dolphins in 2018, tight end Mike Gesicki looked like a player on the rise, posting a 73-780-2 line in 2021 to give him a total of 177 receptions, 2,053 yards, and 13 touchdowns over a three-year stretch. Miami thought enough of Gesicki to slap the franchise tag on him. Heading into Year 5 with new head coach Mike McDaniel arriving, the future looked bright for Gesicki.

Instead, McDaniel brought an offensive attack predicated on speed and vertical shots, built around wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and the result was a marginalized role for Gesicki. After seeing an average of 95 targets over his previous three seasons, the Penn State alum had just 52 in 2022, and — outside of his five touchdowns — his numbers fell to non-rookie lows (32-362-5).

Coming off a down year, Gesicki inked a one-year deal with the New England Patriots. The thought process was clear: give new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien another talented tight end to pair with TE Hunter Henry and watch as that duo recreates the magic seen during O’Brien’s previous run with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. It didn’t work out that way.

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The Pats scuffled offensively throughout 2023 as quarterback Mac Jones regressed, and QB Bailey Zappe showed none of the promise he’d flashed the previous year. When the dust settled, Gesicki was targeted just 45 times, catching 29 of them for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was another disappointing year for the talented pass catcher.

Gesicki signed another one-year deal this offseason, this time with the Cincinnati Bengals, in hope of reigniting his flagging career. It follows Cincinnati’s recent trend, having brought in veteran TEs Hayden Hurst in 2022 and Irv Smith Jr. last year. Hurst (52-414-2 in ‘22) was a far more productive signing than Smith (18-115-1), but the Bengals will be hoping for more from Gesicki.

While tight end hasn’t been a featured position since quarterback Joe Burrow arrived in 2020, the winds of change are blowing in Cincinnati. WR Tyler Boyd is gone, having signed with the Tennessee Titans, and wideout Tee Higgins has demanded a trade after receiving the franchise tag, leaving WR Ja’Marr Chase as the one sure thing in the Bengals’ passing attack.

In terms of competition, TE Drew Sample (22-163-2) returns, and the team spent fourth- and sixth-round picks on TEs Erick All (knee) and Tanner McLachlan, respectively. On paper, nobody in that group is a threat to challenge Gesicki for the top job in 2024. All has the talent over the long term, though he’s recovering from a torn ACL.

Fantasy football outlook

Coming off two disappointing seasons, Gesicki is unlikely to garner much attention in fantasy drafts this time around. While that’s a valid approach, he shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. Depending on how things shake out with Higgins, Gesicki has a chance to fill a bigger role than he has since 2021, and Burrow is easily the best quarterback with whom he’s played. He’s someone to add to your watch list as a possible TE2, provided Higgins is indeed dealt.

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The best fantasy football gamble of Week 1

San Fran’s rookie RB should clobber the Lions, but just how big of a wallop?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 1

RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions

I’ve been banging the Sermon drum ever since he was drafted by the Niners last spring, and he will come out of the gates firing on all cylinders. San Fran is in a perfect situation to feed the rookie rusher in tandem with Raheem Mostert.

The 49ers are one of the most prolific rushing teams in the league, and they also love to share the touches — sometimes to the detriment of fantasy owners.

San Francisco finds its two primary wide receivers coming back from injuries this offseason. Both Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) and Deebo Samuel (glute) are healthy. Neither missed practice as of Wednesday, which is almost always the day anyone remotely iffy to play will sit. Furthermore, tight end George Kittle is ready to rock-n-roll. While gamers love him for his downfield work, he’s among the league’s top blockers at the position.

In 2020, the Lions allowed running backs to average 115.9 rushing yards (5th most), 48.1 receiving yards (most), 32.2 PPR points (2nd most), and a rushing touchdown every 21.1 attempts (third-highest frequency). One in 7.9 catches by the position went into the end zone — no team surrendered touchdowns at a higher clip.

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But that was 2020, you may be thinking, and we’re starting a new season, fresh as a daisy. In most situations, that is how we should be thinking. Yes, the Detroit defense has possibly improved since we last saw them play meaningful football … it is a new coaching regime, employing a new defensive alignment, after all. But there’s also only so much one should expect in the first game under an incoming staff. Switching to a 3-4 base leaves many questions to be answered in ways only done by seeing the on-field product, and that kind of transition rarely is an expeditious one. They’re NFL coaches … not miracle workers here.

Detroit is actually built to be better vs. the pass than the run from a personnel perspective, although that’s not saying a heck of a lot to the secondary’s credit. Now faster on the outside at linebacker, it should work against the Lions. This defense will struggle to contain inside runs this year, especially early on. The nature of San Francisco’s zone-blocking system will pit their own leverage against the quickness gained by the boys in Honolulu blue, creating cutback lanes on outsize zones and setting up misdirections. This is evidenced as the Kyle Shanahan offenses ranking inside of the top 10 for counters and powers during the past two years.

Detroit will have its hands full. This offense as a whole is as dangerous as it has been in recent memory, the fullback is a beast, and the offensive line is among the game’s best. Expect massive holes for the rookie in his pro debut.

My projection: 14 carries, 67 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 0 TD (22.5 PPR points)