Tag: espn sp+

Clemson football remains in the ESPN SP+ Top 25 after Week 3

Clemson remains a top team in college football.

Dabo Swinney and the Clemson football program had a much-needed bye week in Week 3 after their wild start to the 2024 season. 

Week 1 was about as brutal as it gets for a team like Clemson. A 34-3 loss to the No. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs was a tough pill to swallow for the team and fans, but the Tigers recovered as well as they could the next week.

In Week 2 against Appalachian State, Swinney’s team elevated their play and took the next step in the right direction with a ridiculous 66-20 win over the Mountaineers. Clemson scored 56 first half points in the matchup, with starting quarterback Cade Klubnik scoring seven first half touchdowns. 

Following their Week 3 bye, ESPN updated their SP+ rankings heading into Week 4 (subscription required). Clemson ranked No. 21 here, with the No. 22 ranked offense and No. 31 ranked defense. The Tigers are the third-highest-ranked ACC team, with Miami flying up to No. 9 and Louisville at No. 16.

I still believe Clemson is the best team of the three and has a lot of season left to prove it.

Wisconsin drops in ESPN SP+ after indecisive Week 1 win over Western Michigan

Our mid-week rankings check-in sees an overall trend for the Wisconsin Badgers across most metrics: a slide.

Our mid-week rankings check-in sees an overall trend for the Wisconsin Badgers across most metrics: a slide.

These ranking updates come as a reaction to Week 1 games across the college football world. For Wisconsin, that was an indecisive 28-14 victory over Western Michigan.

Related: Wisconsin two-deep depth chart for Week 2 vs. South Dakota includes minor changes

ESPN SP+ is one of the rating systems that is down on the Badgers after their performance on Friday night. Its Week 2 rankings dropped the team nine spots down to No. 35 overall.

Specifically, the update moved the Badgers’ overall rating from 12.9 down to 8.9, due in large part to a significant downgrade for Phil Longo’s offense.

Here is where Wisconsin currently ranks overall, on offense and on defense, plus how that compares to its preseason slots:

  • Overall: 8.9 (No. 36 overall) — Down from 12.9 (26th)
  • Offense: 23.4 (88th) — Down from 25.1 (77th)
  • Defense: 14.5 (8th) — Down from 12.2 (7th)

Here are SP+’s full rankings after a busy Week 1 across college football.

Of note, here is where each of Wisconsin’s upcoming opponents rank after Week 1:

  • Alabama: No. 2 overall (30.3)
  • USC: No. 21 (14.3)
  • Purdue: No. 54 (3.4)
  • Rutgers: No. 38 (7.0)
  • Northwestern: No. 77 (-2.1)
  • Penn State: No. 6 (25.3)
  • Iowa: No. 17 (15.5)
  • Oregon: No. 8 (22.8)
  • Nebraska: No. 33 (9.6)
  • Minnesota: No. 59 (2.2)

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Every ACC football team’s ESPN preseason SP+ ranking

The ACC has some strong teams heading into the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s SP+.

The 2024 college football season is months away, but we all know that football remains on the mind throughout the offseason. 

Early rankings have been released all over the place, with ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently releasing the preseason ESPN SP+ rankings ($$$) for the 2024 season. These SP+ rankings consider multiple key factors regarding a football team, including returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. A strong model; here is a bit more of what Connelly had to say about the rankings. 

“It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

Straightforward and to the point, these are power rankings based on what we know right now. So, how do Clemson and the rest of the ACC stack up in the first SP+ rankings for 2024? Check it out below.

Updated 2/16

How do the Oklahoma Sooners compare to SEC teams in ESPN’s SP+ rating?

The Oklahoma Sooners are heading into a new era in the SEC and come in at No. 8 in the preseason SP+ rankings.

The Oklahoma Sooners had a really good season in 2023 as they bounced back from their 6-7 season in 2022 to win 10 games last year. Now, they prepare for a new era of Oklahoma football with the move to the [autotag]SEC[/autotag].

But they aren’t the only change coming to college football in 2024. The landscape as a whole has changed. The [autotag]Pac 12[/autotag] is essentially no more as everyone but Washington State and Oregon State left for the [autotag]Big 10[/autotag] or the [autotag]Big 12[/autotag].

With the new changes and the 2024 recruiting cycle coming to a close, it’s time to look at where Oklahoma ranks in ESPN data analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason rankings (subscription required).

For those that don’t know, Connelly releases a preseason SP+ ranking every February where he bases his projections on three primary factors weighted by their predictiveness. Those would be returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history.

So, let’s take a look at how Oklahoma stacks up against the rest of the SEC.

Ducks among top teams in the nation according to ESPN’s 2024 SP+

The Oregon Ducks stand as one of the top-ranked teams in the nation according to ESPN’s 2024 preseason SP+ ratings.

The offseason is often spent with various outlets putting out their preseason rankings based on movement across the sport and new-look rosters entering spring football. Different metrics are used, from eye test to returning production to FPI.

One of the most well-respected metrics, though, is ESPN’s SP+, which is a rating system that combines several factors: Returning Production, Recent Recruiting, and Recent History.

Here is how ESPN’s Bill Connelly explains it:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in reverse chronological order (the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning last season, I also began incorporating transfers — both the quality and the volume — into the recruiting rankings part as well.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?

With all of that being said, here’s a look at where the Oregon Ducks rank in the newly updated SP+ ratings that came out on Wednesday morning.

Clemson Ranks Just Outside Top 15 in ESPN’s College Football Preseason SP+ Rankings

Clemson is lower in the ESPN preseason SP+ rankings than in previous years.

It’s that time of the year again… ESPN has released their college football preseason SP+ rankings ($). 

Year after year, ESPN’s Bill Connelly releases his ESPN SP+ rankings early before the season, and we see these rankings updated accordingly. While no metric is perfect for analyzing a football team, Connelly’s SP+ has proven to be a solid model that considers multiple key factors regarding a football team, including returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. Here is a bit of what Connelly had to say about ESPN’s SP+ for you to better understand its purpose. 

 It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

Clemson is lower on the preseason ESPN SP+ rankings this season than in previous years. Ranking No.16 definitely isn’t bad, and it doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t be strong in 2024; it’s just where this specific metric has Clemson’s place right now.

On offense and defense, we see some consistency here, with Clemson’s 36.6 on offense ranking No.15 and their 18.6 for defense ranking No.20. These aren’t bad places for Clemson to be, especially considering some of the turnover this roster has on defense. The main concern comes from the Tigers’ special teams.

The Tigers struggled with special teams in 2023, with their 0.1 and No.66 ranking reflecting that. While the Tigers’ offense needs to show drastic improvement, it’s safe to say special teams do as well.

You might be surprised where Wisconsin football is on ESPN’s early 2024 SP+ rankings

Has Wisconsin’s offseason been a success?

Today marks an important day on the college football calendar, or at least it should. It is the annual release of Bill Connelly’s pre-spring SP+ rankings — arguably the best forward-looking rating system in college football.

His ratings merge returning production from the previous year, recent recruiting and transfer portal performance, and each program’s recent history to create the most accurate forecast for the upcoming year. More than the AP Poll just basing much of the voting off last year’s results, Connelly’s numbers actually consider the factors that decide success.

Related: Win totals released for Wisconsin, every Big Ten team in 2024 football season

Wisconsin enters the spring period after an interesting offseason. In comes the nation’s No. 18-ranked transfer class led by former Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, but out went several of Luke Fickell’s top assistant coaches.

The Badgers need a rebound in 2024 after a 7-6 2023 campaign. A glass-half-full approach would look at turnover and call it a good thing given last year’s results, while the glass-half-empty view would point out that turnover is often a bad thing in college football.

Either way, Wisconsin isn’t entering 2024 ranked inside the nation’s top 10, instead more of a borderline top-25 team.

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That’s where Connelly’s pre-spring SP+ ranking has the Badgers, obviously with room to rise or fall depending on performance on the field.

Remember, Connelly always adds this disclaimer when it comes to the rankings:

A reminder on SP+: It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

Here is his full pre-spring SP+ top 25:

Wisconsin is trending in right direction after win vs Nebraska

Wisconsin is trending in right direction after win vs Nebraska

Wisconsin’s 24-17 overtime win over Nebraska last night improved the team to 6-5 on the season and 4-4 in Big Ten play. While the Iowa Hawkeyes finished the job atop the Big Ten West earlier in the day, Saturday was a success for the Badgers as the program will go bowling for the 22nd consecutive season.

There are Saturdays where the program trends in the wrong direction. Then there are Saturdays where clear steps forward are taken. Yesterday felt like the latter, which is a credit to Luke Fickell and his team for battling back after a disastrous start to the contest.

ESPN’s SP+ agrees. The win moved the Badgers up to No. 31 in the nation, up from No. 38 after last week.

Wisconsin’s company is a bit funny, especially if you consider where these teams were at the start of the season:

No. 27 Miami, No. 28 Iowa, No. 29 Troy, No. 30 USC, No. 32 TCU. There’s Wisconsin and Iowa, and then a combination of Miami, USC and TCU — all teams with sky-high expectations entering the season.

The last time Wisconsin was in a conversation with USC it was during the Caleb Williams saga, yet ESPN SP+ sees them as comparable teams this year.

Either way, Wisconsin is trending in the right direction after last night’s win.

Wisconsin plummets in ESPN SP+ after loss vs Northwestern

Wisconsin plummets in ESPN SP+ after loss vs Northwestern

Wisconsin fell to 5-5 on the season and 3-4 in Big Ten play with its lifeless performance against Northwestern on Saturday.

There could be larger problems within the program at the moment than just a disappointing season. Luke Fickell took over, hired Phil Longo, led an excitement-filled offseason and doesn’t seem to have improved the team in any area.

Those program-wide discussions are conversations for the offseason. But for now, it’s time to accept how far this 2023 team has fallen.

Even several close losses weren’t enough to drop the group in ESPN’s SP+ metric. The 24-10 defeat at the hands of Northwestern has done that job, sending Wisconsin to No. 38 in the metric with the No. 82 offense and No. 6 defense.

I will throw a challenge flag at this one. In no world is this iteration of Wisconsin’s defense a top-6 unit. That is likely a result of too much history baked into the ranking. Because at the moment, this Wisconsin team looks nothing like the great Badger teams we got used to watching.

Things need to change. And things need to change fast.

Wisconsin falls in ESPN SP+ entering pivotal Ohio State matchup

Wisconsin falls in ESPN SP+ entering pivotal Ohio State matchup

Wisconsin escaped Illinois with a 25-21 win last Saturday to improve to 5-2 on the 2023 season and 3-1 in Big Ten play. A win is a win, but it wasn’t necessarily the biggest confidence-infusing performance with Ohio State traveling to Madison this weekend.

ESPN SP+’s metric wasn’t impressed with the Badgers despite the win. Wisconsin fell three spots to No. 28 in the metric, with the No. 56 offense and No. 13 defense.

Related: Wisconsin is atop the Big Ten West thanks to the refs in Iowa City

Ohio State, meanwhile, sits at No. 4 overall with the No. 16 offense and No. 5 defense. This weekend’s matchup is a mismatch, to say the least.

In positive news, Wisconsin remains the highest-ranked team in the Big Ten West. Iowa is next at No. 37, then Minnesota at No. 59, Nebraska at No. 61 and Illinois at No. 62.

A win on Saturday for the Badgers would go a long way towards cementing their status atop the division.