Tag: ESPN. FPI

ESPN’s Football Power Index pushes Dolphins’ playoff odds to 50%

ESPN’s Football Power Index pushes Dolphins’ playoff odds to 50%

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This is turning into quite the season for the Miami Dolphins. First, Miami starts the season 0-2 and falls off the pace in the AFC East to their divisional rival to the north (the Buffalo Bills). The Dolphins bounced back on the road on a short week to win against Jacksonville in dominating fashion before dropping another home game to a top-tier team, the Seattle Seahawks. Since then? The Dolphins have found their groove in all three phases of the game and they haven’t lost since.

The end result? Miami now sits at 5-3 at the midway point of the 2020 NFL season, their best mark through 8 games since 2014. And even better yet, the Dolphins’ remaining strength of schedule is among the 10 easiest in the NFL. Yes, Miami will need to play the Bills in January (in Buffalo) and the Chiefs in December. But of the remaining teams on Miami’s schedule, five have losing records at this point in time.

It bodes well for a potential postseason push from the Dolphins, assuming the team takes care of business and continues to perform at the level we’ve seen from the past month and a half. How likely is that to materialize? It depends on where you look. But ESPN’s Football Power Index currently offers a promising forecast for Miami’s playoff hopes: 50 percent. Flip a coin.

FPI simulates each remaining game on the schedule thousands of times and tallies the average end result — and Miami is (on average) finishing the season 4-4 in their final eight games to check in with a 9-7 record on the season. About half the time, those simulated results are good enough to get the Dolphins into the postseason. Who knows what the ceiling really is of this team amid the Dolphins’ recent quarterback change; but if Tua Tagovailoa plays like he did against Arizona week in and week out, the law of averages applied by FPI may still be selling the Dolphins short.

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Dolphins’ playoff odds near 40%

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Dolphins’ playoff odds near 40%

As the Miami Dolphins continue to gel and improve as a football team this season, one can’t help but begin to shift their gaze to the start of the 2021 calendar year — specifically when the NFL holds their upcoming slate of playoff games. Could the Dolphins really be a surprise participant in the postseason in year two of the Brian Flores era? A lot of that is going to be determined by health, by the play of rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa and inevitably a few lucky bounces of the ball.

But it is possible. Probable? Not yet, although the Dolphins odds for a run at the postseason are certainly swelling depending on where you look. One such resource, ESPN’s Football Power Index, currently clocks the Dolphins with nearly a 40% chance to make the postseason this year as the team braces to play their eight game of the season.

FPI simulates each remaining game on the schedule thousands of times and tallies the average end result. Dolphins fans are likely to enjoy the latest forecasts, which peg the Dolphins to win an average of 8.4 games on the season. So again, one lucky bounce of the ball could take that average projection and boost Miami to 9 wins, in which their odds would certainly sit higher than 40%. And it isn’t just odds to win a wildcard spot, either. The Dolphins currently hold a 15.2% chance to win the AFC East division as things currently stand as well — and with a head to head game left remaining against the Bills, Miami may be on a collision course for a winner take all clash with the Bills in Week 17.

Those hopes are aided by Buffalo’s strength of schedule between now and then; as it is significantly more difficult than what Miami has left on their plate.

This is, of course, a lot of speculation. We’d be better off taking it one day and one week at a time, just like Brian Flores preaches to his players.