Tag: Duke Virginia odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Duke Blue Devils (17-7, 8-5 ACC) will look to take down the No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers (18-4, 10-3) in Charlottesville Saturday at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

No. 24 Duke, after defeating rival North Carolina 63-57 as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday, proceeded to be trounced 81-59 two days later at 20th-ranked Miami as a 3-point underdog. This continued the up-and-down season for the Blue Devils, especially with F Dariq Whitehead sidelined with a leg injury. Lucky for Duke, Whitehead will be returning soon, possibly Saturday against the Cavaliers. His return would be a great sign for Duke, which has had trouble scoring with Whitehead out of the lineup.

Virginia, after losing 74-68 as a 2-point underdog to Virginia Tech Feb. 4, came back home and gained a 63-50 victory as a 7.5-point favorite against No. 22 NC State. Heading into Saturday, Virginia is tied with Clemson and Pittsburgh — all 10-3 in conference — atop of the ACC heading into the final month of the regular season.

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Duke at Virginia odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Duke +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Virginia -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Duke +5.5 (-105) | Virginia -5.5 (-115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 126.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Duke at Virginia picks and predictions

Prediction

Virginia 65, Duke 57

Moneyline

PASS.

Duke has been struggling lately, and a road game in Charlottesville against the best team in the ACC is not a way to get things on the right track.

Virginia, fresh off its 13-point home win over NC State, will win here, too, for the team’s 9th victory in the last 10 games — Virginia Tech being the lone loss.

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Against the spread

TAKE VIRGINIA -5.5 (-115).

Not only has Virginia played a better schedule, but it has also won against that schedule.

Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games and is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 contests against teams with a winning percentage over .600, per Covers.com. In its last 6 games, Virginia is 4-1-1 ATS.

Duke has not fared well as of late. The Blue Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They’re also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road against teams with home-win percentages above .600.

This has all the markings of a VIRGINIA -5.5 (-115) cover.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 126.5 (-115).

With Duke struggling to score and going Under in 3 of its last 4 games — plus, cashing Under tickets in its last 5 Saturday games — the fact Virginia plays at one of the slowest paces in the country might not even matter.

Both teams will want to play ball control and limit possessions.

Virginia ranks 10th in team defense, allowing  60.4 points per game, while Duke is 41st at 64.1 PPG. These defenses will be able to contain the limited offense of the other.

Neither team has an offense ranked inside the top 150. Duke averages just 71.9 PPG, good for 169th, while Virginia scores 70.0 PPG to rank 219th.

In what should be a defensive matchup, I will ride with the UNDER 126.5 (-115).

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