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The No. 17 Duke Blue Devils (5-1, 2-0 ACC) and No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (6-0, 4-0) tangle Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Florida State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Blue Devils came off a bye week to beat N.C. State 24-3 last Saturday. Duke has exhibited a decent run game (198.5 yards per game) and a staunch defense. It has held foes to 14 points or fewer in each win and is allowing only 9.8 points per game (4th in FBS).
Florida State sports a more versatile offense. The Seminoles rank 12th in yards per rush (5.5), but they’ve also managed 272.0 passing YPG (36th). Last Saturday, FSU cranked out 535 total yards in a 41-3 win over Syracuse. The ‘Noles take the field in this contest with a 21-0 all-time record against Duke.
Florida State is No. 4 and Duke is No. 17 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Duke at Florida State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:12 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Duke +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Florida State -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Duke +14.5 (-110) | Florida State -14.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Duke at Florida State picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida State 34, Duke 17
Moneyline
No lean and no interest wading through the amount of juice between these prices. PASS.
Against the spread
Since 1995, FSU is 12-5 ATS in this series. But figure this one as highly probable to land in the Seminoles-by-13-to-20 bucket. Your fellow bettors have this one surrounded. Move along.
STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
Duke has hit the Over in its last 4 road games (+4.00 units, 91% ROI). Florida State has hit the Over in 7 of its last 8 games at home (+5.90 units, 67% ROI).
The last meeting was in 2020, and the ‘Noles won that one 56-35. This one should involve more defense, but the Over is still a likable play.
Duke’s diversity on 1st down plays them to enough of an advantage, and that’s how they can counteract FSU’s competency on pass defense.
Both teams excel in turning redzone trips into touchdowns. Both play at relatively slow paces, but the tempo for each has picked up in recent weeks. So, look for a final tally with a good enough chance to reach the mid-to-high 50s.
The total here looks to be highly influenced by a couple recent games on each side. Those contests are rife with awful 3rd-down performances and untimely drive-ending turnovers.
On a benign-weather evening in Tallahassee, BACK THE OVER 49.5 (-110).
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