Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The Packers have lost a lot in free agency. Can the 2023 draft provide ideal replacement options?
The NFL is a game of replacement, and the Green Bay Packers have several veteran departures from free agency to replace on the roster entering 2023.
Receiver, tight end, safety, special teams. The Packers have roster holes to patch up in the 2023 draft.
Here’s our attempt to replace each of the Packers’ free-agent departures with a prospect in this draft:
If the Saints still want to sign a free agent tight end, former Vikings draft pick and Brother Martin graduate Irv Smith Jr. might be their best option:
Could the New Orleans Saints still be on the hunt for a free agent tight end? Terrible news of a cancer diagnosis for Foster Moreau during a routine physical with the Saints medical staff has prompted the 25-year-old to step away from football, and it’s unclear whether the team’s interest in him was opportunistic — in getting a good player at at reasonable price — or part of their offseason plan to upgrade at tight end.
Look at the players under contract. Juwan Johnson is an ascending talent, having broken out last season as a pass-catcher while continuing to improve as a blocker. But Adam Trautman has not developed as hoped after the Saints traded up for him in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft. Backups like Lucas Krull and Miller Forristall are likely just training camp bodies. Taysom Hill might be listed at tight end but he played more snaps at quarterback and receiver than in that alignment, and he shouldn’t be slotted into the depth chart there.
Clearly this is a spot New Orleans can improve. If they still want to sign a free agent after Moreau was taken off the board, Irv Smith Jr. might be their best option. The former Minnesota Vikings second-round pick prided himself on his two-way ability as a blocker and receiver coming out of Alabama (and before that, Brother Martin High School in New Orleans’ Gentilly neighborhood), much like his father, who played tight end for the Saints from 1993 to 1997 as a first-round draft pick from Notre Dame. There’s a legacy he could live up to here.
But that skill as a pass-catcher and run-blocker is exactly what the Saints could use to complement Johnson as a receiving threat. Trautman doesn’t offer much in that phase of the game, so Smith could be an upgrade if he can continue to block well. He opened some wide lanes for Dalvin Cook the last few years, and it’s easy to see him making headway for running backs Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
But Smith needs to make more of an impact in the passing game. He has an unearned reputation for poor hands, having dropped just 5 passes on 126 career targets and catching 75.4% of the balls thrown his way at an average depth of target of 6.9 yards. He’s also caught 10 of his 20 contested targets. Maybe he can take a step forward with a better quarterback than Kirk Cousins throwing to him. Derek Carr has a history of maximizing receiving production from his tight ends.
Injuries have also been a concern for him. Smith played just 8 games in 2022 due to a midseason ankle injury. He lost the entire 2021 season to a torn meniscus. Groin and back issues limited him to 13 appearances in 2020’s first 17-game season. It would be worth signing him at the right price, and having Trautman in the fold as a backup with some experience is nice, but expecting him to endure a full workload as the No. 2 tight end behind Johnson might be tall ask. Additionally, signing Smith would likely jeopardize one of the 2024 compensatory draft picks the Saints are projected to get for losing so many free agents this spring.
So that’s why a lot of attention is going towards the 2023 NFL draft class. It’s said to be the strongest group of tight end prospects coming out of the college game in years, and the Saints are well-positioned to find a good one with picks at Nos. 29 (in the first round), 40 (in the second round), and 71 (in the third round). But, again, it’s worth asking how big of a priority an upgrade at tight end would be to them. The Saints might have bigger fish to fry before looking for an excuse to cut bait with Trautman.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
[stnvideo key=”xULcouCBDz-2633859-7618″ type=”float”]
Raiders slot receiver Hunter Renfrow could make sense as a Saints trade target. He’s played well with Derek Carr before and could be on the outs with Las Vegas:
The New Orleans Saints are bringing back Michael Thomas for the 2023 season, adding him to a receiving corps that includes Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Tre’Quan Smith, Kirk Merritt, Keith Kirkwood, and Kawaan Baker. It’s a good move to bet on the 2019 NFL Offensive Player of the Year if he can finally return to good health, but the Saints need to invest in a contingency plan just in case. His lengthy absences over the last three seasons demand it.
One name to keep an eye on: Hunter Renfrow. The Las Vegas Raiders receiver is a slot specialist, having lined up in the slot on 86%, 64%, 63%, and 71% of his routes over the last four years. He’s been very effective on third downs throughout his career, being targeted 118 times there while catching 88 passes to convert a first down on 58 of them. And he’s been dangerous in scoring position with 15 touchdown catches on 33 receptions inside the opposing 20-yard line.
He also established a quick connection with Derek Carr as a rookie in 2019, peaking with a 111-catch season in 2021 when they were running Jon Gruden’s West Coast-style offense. The switch to Josh McDaniels’ system in 2022 saw a reduced role for Renfrow, who averaged a career-low 33 receiving yards per game while struggling with an injury.
But Gruden’s offense shares many foundations with the Sean Payton-built system that Pete Carmichael Jr. and the Saints are running now, and it’s reasonable to think Renfrow could reestablish himself with Carr in a change of scenery. The Raiders just signed free agent receiver Jakobi Meyers to a new contract, so Renfrow might not be a big part of their plans for 2023 and beyond.
So what could a trade look like? Renfrow is still under contract for 2023 and 2024, with an acquiring team taking on a two-year contract valued at $23.4 million if he is traded by Friday afternoon (when a $4.3 million roster bonus payment is due). If Renfrow is traded after that deadline, the Raiders will pay his roster bonus and he’ll only cost a new team $19.1 million over two years. That’s still a bit steep for a No. 3 wide receiver, but that’s the price of receivers these days.
There’s a lot of fans of Shaheed in New Orleans, but the Saints might want a more proven option as their third receiver behind Thomas and Olave (which would allow them to dictate Shaheed’s matchups when going four-wide). If the Saints could acquire Renfrow for a late-round pick in 2023 or 2024, it’s worth at least making a call.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
[stnvideo key=”O510nbKTDp-2612117-7618″ type=”float”]
No NFL general manager has lost more draft pick value in trades than Mickey Loomis, whose always-aggressive approach has cost the Saints from time to time:
Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart, here's how much net value every GM has generated from draft pick trades that don't involve players going back to 2011 pic.twitter.com/C9gYVZNYV1
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) March 12, 2023
Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes he gets you. And when you trade up as often as the New Orleans Saints have under Mickey Loomis, you tend to pay a higher price than you’d like. The latest illustration of this comes from Pro Football Focus analyst Arjun Menon, who created a graph showing the net trade value gained or lost by every active NFL general manager dating back to 2011 (when a new collective bargaining agreement introduced the modern rookie wage scale, dramatically shifting how draft picks are valued).
And no general manager has lost more value for his team than Loomis — who, to be fair, shares a lot of blame with former Saints head coach Sean Payton for the aggressive draft strategy. New Orleans has traded away future picks to move up in the current draft more frequently than many other teams around the league. Look at their history:
If you’re keeping track, that’s a total of six picks in the first, second, and third rounds traded to move up and get Ingram, Kamara, Davenport, McCoy, Baun and Penning. And we aren’t even counting the many trades that only included packaging up late-round picks in the current draft, only future assets. It’s early for Penning, but of that group you could only say it was worth it with certainty for Ingram, Kamara and McCoy.
Why trade up so often? The Saints work with a smaller big board of draft prospects than most other teams, viewing the pre-draft process as a series of disqualifications to limit their options to players who best fit what they’re looking for. Many teams often have 120 to 150 draftable grades on their board. New Orleans usually has 75 to 90. So when a player they value is just outside of reach, they’re comfortable making a move to go get them. At the same time, they don’t see as much value in trading down; Loomis hasn’t moved back in the draft since 2007.
The Saints have a strategy that is tough to beat when it works. But their eagerness to trade up can get them burned, especially when the players they covet don’t meet expectations. Trading up so often has a cost that’s paid in the later rounds, when teams need to get depth players. When the Saints miss on a player like Davenport after trading up, and lose key contributors in free agency, it’s really difficult to field a competitive roster. Hopefully they’ll learn from that and tweak the strategy.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
[stnvideo key=”IWnW6yH0kX-2607430-7618″ type=”float”]
The #Chargers will have to wait until 2024 to receive any compensatory draft picks from the NFL.
The Chargers didn’t get any help from the NFL relative to their draft capital in 2023 after they were not awarded any compensatory picks for players who departed from their roster in 2022.
While the league’s new compensatory pick formula may not suit Los Angeles’ agenda this season, their salary cap situation will almost certainly necessitate that they let several players walk when free agency opens later in March, which will set them up to be awarded more selections next year.
For a team that needs as much young talent as they can find before they extend Justin Herbert on what is set to be a gargantuan second contract, this development is far from ideal. However, it won’t necessarily hamstring the team as they look to reload in search of their first playoff win since 2018.
L.A. still has picks in all seven rounds of the 2023 draft and will have the No. 21 overall selection in the first round. If they can find an impact player to fill needs on either side of the ball in any round in their rookie season, it could go a long way toward getting the Chargers back to legitimate contention.
Here’s an updated look at the #Chiefs’ 10 picks in the 2023 NFL draft:
The NFL has released the full round-by-round order for the 2023 NFL draft following yesterday’s news drop of compensatory selections.
The Kansas City Chiefs will have a total of 10 picks this year. There are some important things to note about that, though.
First, the third-round compensatory pick they were awarded for Ryan Poles being hired by the Bears, was traded to the Giants in the Kadarius Toney trade. They no longer have that draft pick.
Second, the Chiefs did not receive a conditional draft pick for the trade that sent Rashad Fenton to Atlanta. Whatever the conditions were for that trade, they were not met. It’s not a huge surprise as Fenton didn’t play much for the Falcons last year.
Finally, the Chiefs now have the top pick in the sixth round. Miami also had pick No. 197 in the sixth round (which was their own pick), but this was the pick they acquired by sending Jakeem Grant to Chicago. It was a smart move by Kansas City to put in a stipulation on that future pick in the Hill trade that it be the highest selection the Dolphins held in Round 6.
Without further ado, the Chiefs’ full list of picks in the 2023 NFL draft:
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=217674209]
[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbwa53mtds520q2 player_id=01eqbvhghtkmz2182d image=]
Trades on the way? “We’re always looking for picks,” Broncos GM George Paton said.
The Denver Broncos are currently set to go into the 2023 NFL draft with just five picks — about half the amount general manager George Paton prefers to hold during a draft.
The Broncos could acquire more picks by trading away select players this offseason. Denver could also trade down during the draft, something Paton has done numerous times in the past.
“We’re always looking to add [picks],” Paton said at the NFL combine last week. “It’s not always easy. It’s easier to do during the draft — to move back and you could acquire picks. We’ve done that here. We’ve done that at other places I’ve been.
“I do think the top five [picks] of the third round is kind of the sweet spot of the draft. If we can get a couple really good players to contribute, we’re going to do that. We’re always looking for picks.”
Denver holds picks Nos. 4 and 5 in the third round (one from a trade with the Indianapolis Colts). Paton specifically mentioned that as a sweet spot in the draft, so the Broncos might not want to trade down in the third round, but Paton will also have picks in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds.
Like Paton said, it’s not always easy to acquire more picks, but Denver could be in the market — both during the draft and over the next few weeks.
Follow the Broncos Wire Podcast:
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts
[lawrence-related id=693690,692972,692604,692687,693517]
Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill says he had a productive meeting with Sean Payton, but couldn’t sign off on meeting the Saints’ trade demands:
This is a tough look for Arizona Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill. At one point, Sean Payton was the betting favorite to become his team’s new head coach — Bidwill talked up Payton’s vision for the team and how he enjoyed their productive meeting in Arizona. But Payton ended up with the Denver Broncos, and Bidwill says it’s because he couldn’t sign off on meeting the Saints’ trade demands.
“It was all the compensation, the draft compensation,” Bidwill said on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. “We just weren’t willing to go with what the Saints wanted us to give up. It would have been too costly to the team for us to rebuild that roster. It was really a series of tradeoffs. I still felt like we got great coaches out there who could get this team turned around.”
Now, the Cardinals had to reach a general understanding of what the Saints were seeking to get back in trading Payton before they ever hosted him for an interview; judging from Bidwill’s quote, they were willing to do that to get him in the building, but when it came time to negotiate with New Orleans they weren’t willing to haggle the Saints down. Which makes since given the Denver Broncos’ involvement as a competing suitor.
The Saints eventually traded Payton to the Broncos in exchange for a first-round pick in 2023, also swapping their 2024 third rounder for a second-round choice. Arizona could have pulled off a similar deal, but their roster is further away from playing competitively, so it didn’t make as much sense to push their chips in like this.
We’ll revisit this in a few years and see how things turned out for all involved. Maybe the Cardinals aren’t as far back as they seem. Maybe Payton proves to be less of an asset than expected (or maybe he’s even more important to Denver’s success). Maybe the Saints can put the picks they did get to good use.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
[stnvideo key=”EKnN3vz1Dq-2553937-7618″ type=”float”]
ESPN says the Saints are stuck in quarterback purgatory with or without Derek Carr. The defense that’s kept them competitive is getting eroded:
It’s clear that the New Orleans Saints need stability under center, but how big of an upgrade would Derek Carr be for them? The former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback performed at a similar level to Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston in recent years, and at least one outlet isn’t sold on him alone getting things on the right track.
Between the average age of players on their roster (27.7), a complicated salary cap outlook (they’re over the cap by $59.8 million, more than anyone else), and a scarcity of draft picks (8 of them in 2023), the Saints have a lot of ground to cover in pushing for a spot in the playoff picture. Their problems are bigger than a new quarterback alone can fix, writes ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler:
“Like nearly half the league, the Saints must crystallize their quarterback picture. They are pursuing Derek Carr, and if he signs in New Orleans, they likely will negotiate a release of quarterback Jameis Winston. Finding dynamic receiver Chris Olave — who had 1,042 receiving yards in his rookie year — a running mate would also be ideal.
On defense, New Orleans can start planning for life after highly productive but aging starters, such as edge rusher Cameron Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis. And it seems as if the team could let free agent pass-rusher Marcus Davenport walk.”
The defense that has kept the Saints competitive in life after Drew Brees (and Sean Payton) isn’t getting any younger. It would be nice if Davenport had developed into a quality replacement for Jordan, but he hasn’t met those expectations. It would be great if the Saints can re-sign linebacker Kaden Elliss as an heir-apparent for Davis, but that’s going to be tough when he can sign with other times as a starter right away.
So this means that the Saints have a lot to work on this offseason. In addition to finding a new quarterback — whether that turns out to be Carr or someone else — they must replenish a depth chart that’s been eroded in recent years due to retirements (like Malcolm Jenkins), contract disputes (such as C.J. Gardner-Johnson), and free agent departures (including Vonn Bell, Sheldon Rankins, Alex Anzalone, and Trey Hendrickson). Getting a veteran like Carr could help them out, but it’s not going to magically cure all that ails them.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
[stnvideo key=”EnXaKHbhBL-2545195-7618″ type=”float”]
Never say never, but Sean Payton won’t trade for Taysom Hill any time soon. Hill’s contract with the Saints means any move makes more sense for the summer:
Never say never, but Sean Payton won’t trade for Taysom Hill any time soon. Or it’s more accurate to say that Payton can’t trade Hill in the immediate future. Hill’s contract with the New Orleans Saints means any move makes more sense for the summer: if the Saints trade him before June 1, they’ll be on the hook for $13,875,000 in dead money. Trading him to the Denver Broncos before free agency, the draft, and the first weeks of summer would save the team only $50,000 against the salary cap.
That’s not to say Payton won’t trade for one of his favorite players. The former Saints head coach as suggested as much himself, half-jokingly suggesting he’d be happy to take on Hill’s contract (which carries salary cap hits of more than $14 million in each of the next three years). Payton uncorked some really unique plays and personnel packages with Hill for New Orleans, and it checks out that he’d like to import the 33-year-old to his new Broncos roster.
In addition to the financial considerations, Payton doesn’t have much to offer the Saints in a trade right now. After trading for Payton and franchise quarterback Russell Wilson, Denver is left with a pittance of picks in the 2023 draft: a pair of third rounders and selections in rounds four, five, and six. Payton will want to hold onto those picks to spend on his own rookie players in a few months. It would probably take more than he’s willing to pay to convince the Saints to part ways with Hill at this stage in the offseason.
That’s not to say this will be the case later on. The Broncos own their first rounder in 2024 as well as picks in rounds three, four, five, six, and seven — double-dipping with third-, fifth-, and seventh-rounders. If the Saints want to wait to trade Hill until it’s easier for them to deal with the salary cap accounting, the Broncos can accommodate them with all of those future picks. By waiting to trade Hill until after June 1, the Saints can save $10.15 million against the salary cap while being left with a dead money hit of just $4.025 million. Those are real savings they could put towards inking their rookie draft class.
Which brings us to gauging Hill’s value. He’s coming off of his best year as a pro, having gained 575 rushing yards and scored 7 touchdown runs while picking up 77 receiving yards and scoring 2 touchdown catches — in addition to his 240 passing yards and 2 touchdown throws. And that’s without any consistent usage as Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael seemed to write him out of the game plan at times last season. Hill is also going to carry greater appeal to Payton than any other coach in the league given their preexisting relationship.
Hill would likely fetch more than a sixth rounder, which is what has been traded recently for backup quarterbacks like Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco, because of his effectiveness as a utility player. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz was traded for a fifth-round pick in 2021, though he’s much more of a true tight end than Hill. There aren’t many other players like him around the league. So what’s appropriate value for him?
Let’s combine those two together and say one fourth-round pick beat a fifth and a sixth; after all, the Broncos would be getting a backup quarterback and a playmaking tight end (and slot receiver, fullback, special teams playmaker, and so on. You get the idea). If the Saints can hold onto Hill’s contract into the summer and get a 2024 fourth rounder back from Denver, saving more than $10 million against the cap in the process, that’s probably a win.
But it’s more complicated, as often feels like the case for this team. The Saints would have to keep Hill around on his salary cap hit of $14,175,000 through June in order to max out their savings. And it would be really difficult for them to trade for Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr with Hill’s contract taking up such a large chunk of their resources. They need to release a couple of players and restructure nearly a dozen more to fit Carr on the books, including Hill. If Carr is in their plans, Hill has to be, too.
So never say never. But the stars aren’t aligning in a way that sends Hill to Denver just yet. Payton could very well buck conventional wisdom and work something out with the Saints’ creative salary cap management team (led by football administration vice president Khai Harley) to get his way. Maybe he’d have to send the Saints’ third-round pick back to them in next year’s draft to make it happen. For now, though, it’s more of an elaborate daydream.
