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The Miami Dolphins (3-0) visit the Buffalo Bills (2-1) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Dolphins are coming off a 70-20 home rout as 6-point favorites vs. the Denver Broncos. After a game in which RBs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert each finished with 4 TDs, Miami will find it more difficult going up against a stouter Buffalo defense.
Buffalo is on a 2-game win streak after losing its opener to the New York Jets on Monday night. The Bills are coming off a 37-3 “rocking chair” victory at the Washington Commanders as 5-point favorites.
This is the Bills’ 2nd home game — they beat the Las Vegas Raiders 38-10 as 7.5-point favorites in Week 2.
The Dolphins will be facing their 3rd road game of the young season. A season-opening 36-34 win as 3-point underdogs at the Los Angeles Chargers was followed by a 24-17 divisional win as 1-point favorites at New England.
Miami has proven it can win on the road thus far but hasn’t faced elite teams. The combined record of Miami’s first 3 opponents is just 2-7.
This is an important game for both teams and the NFL landscape. The Bills will be looking to show they’re still the dominant team in the AFC East, while the Dolphins hope to show it belongs among the best teams in the league.
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Dolphins at Bills odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:23 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +126 (bet $100 to win $126) | Bills -148 (bet $148 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +3 (-115) | Bills -3 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Dolphins at Bills key injuries
Dolphins
- OL Terron Armstead (back, ankle, knee) questionable
- SS DeShon Elliott (ankle, groin) questionable
- LB Jaelan Phillips (oblique) out
- C Connor Williams (groin) questionable
Bills
- S Jordan Poyer (knee) out
Dolphins at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 27, Dolphins 21
Moneyline
BUFFALO (-148) is the safer wager to make here.
The Dolphins will finally play a good team in the Bills. We have yet to figure out how good Miami really is. This will be a good barometer to judge.
Playing at home, the Bills will look to assert their dominance over their AFC East Division rivals after the Dolphins just put up 70 on the hapless Broncos.
Backing the Bills -3 (-105) is a better wager, but if you want the safety of not worrying about having to win by at least 3 points, the ML of -148 is not outrageous for Buffalo and would make a good addition to a small parlay.
Against the spread
BUFFALO -3 (-105) is my play.
Sure, Miami is coming off the impressive 70-point outing, but it came against a lackluster Denver — which yielded 35 points in a 2-point loss to the Commanders in Week 2.
The Dolphins offensive line has been playing better than expected. However, with C Connor Williams and LT Terron Armstead listed on the injury report, the Bills pass rush could be able to harass Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa throughout the day.
While Miami has the offense to compete, the Dolphins defense — with CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) out and CB Xavien Howard aging — will find it challenging to slow down a Bills offense led by QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs.
Buffalo laying -3 (105) is a surprising number after seeing what Miami did to Denver last week, but it doesn’t scare me away from making this wager. BACK BUFFALO -3 (-105.)
Over/Under
UNDER 53.5 (-115) is the way to go.
The last time a team scored 70 or more points was the 1966 Washington team. In the following game, it won at the Dallas Cowboys 34-31. It also came following a bye week, something the Dolphins don’t have the benefit of.
Buffalo has only allowed 13 points in the past 2 games — 10 to the Las Vegas Raiders and 3 to the Commanders. While Miami’s offense provides a much bigger threat, the Bills defense will slow the Dolphins enough to keep this UNDER 53.5 (-115).
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