Tag: Dodgers Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (55-38) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (60-32) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 6:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

The Dodgers dropped their 3rd straight game Wednesday with a 4-3 loss in Philadelphia. They simply can’t stack up on the mound right now with all of their injuries. DH Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-4 with an RBI, but it wasn’t enough.

The Phillies, despite RHP Zack Wheeler exiting with back stiffness Tuesday, are getting healthier. DH Kyle Schwarber made his presence felt with a leadoff homer in his 2nd game back from the IL. The Phils have the best record in baseball.

Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Landon Knack vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Knack (1-2, 2.86 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 34 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-3 home defeat July 4 against Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Never faced Phillies before
  • Home/road splits: Road: 1-0, 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 3 GS; Home: 0-2, 3.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 4 GS

Nola (10-4, 3.48 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 113 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 8-6 victory Friday at Atlanta Braves
  • Leads league with 16 homers allowed
  • Last 5 starts vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 36 K in 29 IP

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Dodgers at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:38 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

It’s really hard to sweep a team. It’s even harder when that team is the Dodgers. Nola has allowed 3+ ER in 4 of 5 starts and in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers. Conversely, Knack had been solid until his last start. Throw that start out, and he has a 2.07 ERA. I like the DODGERS (+125).

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Run line/Against the spread

There’s no use taking the RL when we’re getting value on the ML.

I will target AARON NOLA UNDER 1.5 WALKS (-150). He has 1 BB in his last 4 starts.

Over/Under

The wind is blowing out at 8 mph to right-center on an 86-degree day. The Dodgers are 8-2 O/U in their last 10, and the Phils are 6-4.

This feels like an OVER 9 (-120) kind of day.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (55-37) and Philadelphia Phillies (59-32) meet Wednesday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0

Philadelphia routed Los Angeles 10-1 Tuesday while covering as a -154 home favorite. The Phillies jumped out to a 9-0 lead before the 5th inning and ended a 2-game losing streak.

RHP Bobby Miller took the loss for LA (4 IP,  9 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 2 K). which has lost back-to-back outings.

Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Gavin Stone vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Stone (9-2, 3.03 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 92 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 12-4 loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
  • Career vs. Philadelphia: 0-0, 9.00 ERA (4 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 1 start

Sanchez (6-4, 2.96 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 97 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 10-2 loss at the Chicago Cubs Thursday
  • First career start vs. Dodgers

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Dodgers at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:12 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Dodgers 5

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (-135).

Philadelphia is the slightly hotter team, being 6-4 in their last 10 overall and 3-1 in its last 4 home games while the Dodgers are only 4-6 in their last 10 overall and 1-3 in their last 4 road games.

The Phillies are also 3-1 in their last 4 matchups vs. Los Angeles in Philadelphia, having won back-to-back meetings.

Be aware that the Dodgers are 6-4 in their last 10 meetings with Philadelphia.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Dodgers to cover here as these are both very good teams and as they hold the slight edge in recent matchups vs. Philly, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as +1.5 (-190) underdogs. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 9 (-120).

The Over has hit in back-to-back home games for Philadelphia and is 6-4 in its last 10 overall. For Los Angeles, the Over has hit in back-to-back outings and is 9-1 in its last 10. The Over is also 3-1-2 in the last 6 Los Angeles-Philadelphia matchups.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (55-36) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (58-32) Tuesday in the opener of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Dodgers won 4-2 last year

The Dodgers took 2 of 3 from the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend but fell 9-2 Sunday as -170 home favorites. C Will Smith calmed down, going 0-for-4 in the loss after he hit 4 homers in the first 2 games. He’s up to 15 homers and 55 RBIs on the season.

The Phils dropped 2 of 3 at the Atlanta Braves — after taking the series opener — and have lost 3 of 4 overall. They were blanked 6-0 Sunday as +142 underdogs and 5-1 Saturday as +110 dogs. The losses of 1B Bryce Harper and DH/LF Kyle Schwarber to the injured list are starting to catch up to Philly. However, 3B Alec Bohm is 2nd in the NL with 70 RBIs on the year — only behind Atlanta DH Marcell Ozuna (73).

Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Bobby Miller vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Miller (1-1, 6.12 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 25 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 6-5 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks July 3
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1 road start, win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 9-0 rout June 10, 2023

Wheeler (9-4, 2.74 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 111 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-3 win at Chicago Cubs Wednesday
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 2-2, 4.72 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 6 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Dodgers at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Dodgers 3

Moneyline

I’m not thrilled with the Phillies offense, but Miller has allowed 2 or more runs in 5 straight starts. Meanwhile, Wheeler has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. Both teams possess great bullpens, and remember, the Dodgers are without SS Mookie Betts as well.

TAKE PHILLIES (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS, but as mentioned, Wheeler hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in 6 of his last 7 outings and has only allowed 2 or more runs in 4 of 18 starts this year.

BET ZACK WHEELER UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS (-125).

Over/Under

The wind is forecast to blow out to center at 9 mph, but that may work in our favor. The Over was 0-1-2 in this head-to-head series at Citizens Bank Park last June. Both offenses are missing major cogs. I dig UNDER 9 (-115).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (36-28) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (31-32) Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 3-1

The Dodgers lost the series opener 5-4 on Friday, their 5th loss in their last 6 games. Los Angeles has fallen 2 1/2 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the lead in the NL West.

The Phillies picked up their 6th consecutive win Friday. Philadelphia has also won 5 consecutive games at home but remains 8 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the NL East.

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Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Bobby Miller vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Miller (2-0, 1.06 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.77 WHIP, 4 BB and 16 K through 17 IP in his rookie season.

  • Has not allowed more than 1 run in any start so far
  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-1 loss to the New York Yankees Sunday

Nola (5-4, 4.30 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 81 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 R (0 ER), 1 H, 3 BB, 12 K in 8-3 win over the Detroit Tigers Monday
  • Had 4.93 ERA across 6 starts in May
  • At Los Angeles on May 3: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 10-6 loss

Dodgers at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Dodgers have not had a stretch like their current 1-5 record in 6 games at any other point this season, but that may change Saturday as Miller has been fantastic so far in his 3 MLB starts.

The Phillies have been held to 3 or fewer runs 3 times in their last 9 games.

Expect a bounce-back game for the Dodgers (-115) on Saturday, and their moneyline isn’t a bad wager. However, when L.A. wins it usually does so by 2 or more runs and that should provide even more value.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Betting the Dodgers on the run line is often a good play despite how they have done in the last week. Eighteen of their last 21 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

While the Phillies have won 6 straight games, at 25-38 ATS overall this season, they have not been a great ATS bet. Fifteen of the Phillies’ last 18 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

BET DODGERS -1.5 (+145).

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Over/Under

The highest total in Miller’s 3 starts this season has been 9 runs.

Eight of the Dodgers’ last 13 games have had 10 or more total runs and another 2 games finished on exactly 9.

Three of the 4 meetings between the 2 teams have had 9 or more runs.

Five of Nola’s last 7 stats have had totals of 10 or more runs.

BET OVER 9 (+100).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (36-27) open a 3-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies (30-32) Friday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 3-0

The Dodgers snapped a 4-game losing streak Thursday with a 6-0 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. LHP Clayton Kershaw scattered 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9 over 7 innings to pick up his 8th win of the year. L.A. needed the victory after it dropped the first two games of a 6-game road trip with losses on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Phillies enter the series riding a 5-game winning streak, although that started on the heels of a 5-game losing skid. Philadelphia closed out a 3-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers with a 3-2 victory Thursday.

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Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Michael Grove vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Grove (0-2, 8.14 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 21 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 6-3 loss to the New York Yankees Saturday
  • MLB debut was against Phillies on May 15, 2022: No -decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 R (0 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 5-4 home win

Suarez (1-2, 5.47 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 24 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in an 11-3 road win vs. the Washington Nationals Sunday
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 3-2 with 4.08 ERA over 3 starts and 3 relief appearances

Dodgers at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:33 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 7, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Dodgers swept the Phillies in Los Angeles from May 1-3, scoring in double digits in each game. They are now 16-17 on the road. L.A. has won 6 of its last 7 games against Philadelphia.

The Phillies have won 5 games in a row and do play well at home where they are 17-10.

This game is a true pick ’em but when it comes to the Dodgers, even with their 2-5 record in their last 7 games, it is usually best to go with them on the run line instead of the moneyline for better odds as they usually win by multiple runs.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Dodgers are 35-28 ATS overall this season while the Phillies are 24-38 ATS this season.

Eighteen of the Dodgers’ last 21 victories have been by 2 or more runs and they beat the Phillies by at least 4 runs in each of their 3 previous meetings this season.

BET DODGERS -1.5 (+145).

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Over/Under

All 3 games the Dodgers and Phillies played in L.A. finished with totals of 14 runs or more.

Eight of the Dodgers’ last 12 games have had totals of 10 or more runs.

BET OVER 9.5 (-105).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (27-12) conclude their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with the Philadelphia Phillies (18-22) Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 11-5 but the  Dodgers-Phillies season series is tied 3-3 and Philly has a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.

Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Tony Gonsolin vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Gonsolin is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 33 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 5-4, at home vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-1 home win June 14 with 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 2.53 FIP with a .222/.287/.283 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 28.6 K% and 91.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 14 plate appearances (PA).

Eflin is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 30 IP across 6 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 3-0, at home vs. the San Diego Padres Tuesday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Dodgers: No-decision in Philly’s 5-3 loss at L.A. June 15 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 6.97 FIP with a .233/.322/.456 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 20.5 K% and 88.5 mph EV in 112 PA.

Dodgers at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 5, Phillies 2

Money line

GIMME the DODGERS (-140) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Phillies in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Both Gonsolin and Eflin have fantastic advanced pitching numbers thus far in 2022 but I’m higher on Gonsolin since he has a career 2.62 ERA and 3.59 FIP whereas Eflin has a career 4.52 ERA and 4.38 FIP.

Only 4 of Eflin’s 6 pitches have a minus-run value, according to Statcast, while 3 of Gonsolin’s 4 pitches have a minus-run value and his splitter has the fourth-best run value in baseball.

The Dodgers are 15-8 vs. right-handed starters and rank 1st in wRC+ (123),  wOBA (.341) and BB/K rate (0.56) and 2nd in hard-hit rate (34.7%) against righties, per FanGraphs.

Conversely, the Phillies are 11-17 against righty starters and rank 22nd in BB/K rate (0.33) and 18th in hard-hit rate (28.9%) vs. right-handed pitching.

L.A.’s bullpen ranks 2nd in xFIP (3.30) and 1st in both EV (85.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (26.6%), according to FanGraphs. Philly’s bullpen is 26th in xFIP (4.20) and 21st in hard-hit rate (39.6%).

BET the DODGERS (-140).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Dodgers -1.5 (+115) isn’t a steep enough payout even though L.A. is 11-7 RL as a road favorite.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 9.5 (-115) because both starters grade in the 90th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, expected ERA and xwOBA, according to Statcast.

The Dodgers are also 5-11-2 O/U as road favorites, the Phillies are 0-3 O/U as home underdogs and Citizens Bank Park has the lowest run factor in MLB.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (18-20) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (25-12) Friday for the start of a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies are 6-4 in the last 10 games, including taking 3 of 4 from the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are also 6-4 in their last 10 and enter on a 5-game winning streak after a 4-game skid, which included three consecutive losses to the Phillies before taking Sunday’s finale.

Season series: Phillies 3-1

Dodgers at Phillies projected starters

LHP Julio Urias vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Urias is 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 36 IP across 7 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 8-3 at home to Phillies Saturday with 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 4 HR, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 5.38 FIP with a .274/.316/.439 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.0 K% and 85.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 74 plate appearances (PA).

Suarez is 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-3 at Dodgers Saturday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 5.00 FIP with a .259/.331/.419 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 19.6 K% and 88.8 mph EV in 56 PA.

Dodgers at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:06 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Phillies 3

Money line

LEAN DODGERS (-140),

There’s reverse-line movement (RLM) in the betting market since most of the money is on L.A., according to Pregame.com, and the line is moving toward the Phillies (+115), which is suspicious, to say the least.

Philly won with this same starting pitching matchup last week in L.A. and there’s value in fading on the recent bias of that outcome.

Urias gets elite spin on his fastball and curveball and his swing-and-miss rates are much better and two of Suarez’s four pitches have a plus-run value, according to Statcast.

Furthermore, L.A. is 11-4 vs. left-handed starters, Philly is 7-4 against lefties and the Dodgers’ bullpen is a top-3 unit in baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Los Angeles -1.5 (+115) isn’t a big enough payout considering the RLM and how well the Philadelphia played at Dodger Stadium last week.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

The Dodgers are 2-5 O/U in Urias’ 7 starts and 5-10-2 O/U as road favorites. Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park run factor and the Phillies are 8-11-2 O/U at home.

Also, the weather conditions are more pitcher-friendly. The forecast is predicting temperatures in the cool, high-60s with 15-plus mph winds blowing in from left-center field.

The UNDER 8.5 (-105) is my favorite wager in this series opener.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (69-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (59-55) meet for the finale of a three-game series Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Mitch White is the projected starting pitcher for the Dodgers. He is 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 through 24 IP over 1 start and 14 relief appearances. The 26-year-old is making his second straight appearance as a starter.

  • Allowed 2 ER in 3 2/3 IP (2H, 1 BB, 5K) in his first start Aug. 31 at the Arizona Diamondbacks. Started a Triple-A game Aug. 5 and allowed 3 ER over 5 IP.

LHP Ranger Suarez is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is making his third straight start after appearing in 27 games as a reliever. He is 5-3 with a 0.98 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 through 46 IP.

  • Doesn’t figure to give Philadelphia a lot of length. Threw 33 pitches in his first start and 61 in his second. Walked 4 over those two turns but did not allow a run or a hit in 5 2/3 combined innings.
  • Excellent in keeping hard contact under wraps but has benefited from a .168 batting average on balls in play.

Dodgers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Dodgers 7, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

The Phillies went into this series on an eight-game winning streak. Philadelphia had been hitting the ball hard of late with a .831 OPS over its previous 12 games but the Phils have thus far run into strong Dodgers pitching in this series, and Los Angeles heads into Thursday’s matinee looking for a sweep.

With its 5-0 and 8-2 victories Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, the Dodgers have won four consecutive games. They have outscored the Angels and now Phillies by a 26-7 margin over the four wins.

The Dodgers are seven games under .500 in 1-run games (13-20). They are a public team to be sure, but they may be a bit undervalued in some ways. Even with the gray area of this pitching matchup, Los Angeles is the lean to close out a sweep but look to the run line to maximize value.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Each of L.A.’s last eight wins were by multiple runs. In a hitters’ park on a hitters’ day and with some play-the-Dodgers/fade-the-Phils edge in the bullpen comparison, BACK THE DODGERS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE THE OVER 10.5 (-108) on a hot, humid, wind-out day at Citizens Bank Park. Los Angeles is averaging 5.96 runs per game since July 10.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (68-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (59-54) tangle in the middle contest of a three-game series Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP David Price is the projected starting pitcher for the Dodgers. Through 29 games (eight starts), he is 4-1 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 across 51 IP.

  • Draws a Philadelphia nine which has been crushing left-handers over recent weeks with a .869 OPS in the second half.
  • Didn’t allow a home run from April 13-July 18. Has allowed 4 HR in 16 1/3 IP since.

RHP Kyle Gibson is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 through 125 2/3 IP over 21 starts.

  • Came to the Phils in a deadline deal with the Texas Rangers. Is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA since.
  • Walked 4 batters in his last start and walked a total of 14 batters over his last 18 2/3 IP across three starts.

Dodgers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Phillies +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Dodgers 7, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies came into this series on an eight-game winning streak. Philadelphia has been hitting the ball hard of late with a .814 OPS over its last 12 games and is a strong team at home at 34-22.

However, the Dodgers took Tuesday’s opener 5-0 for their straight win.

Because of an oddity like the Dodgers being seven games under .500 in 1-run games (13-20), Los Angeles’ overall record is a poor gauge of the club’s talent. Looking at metrics like expected ERA-vs.-ERA, there is some fade to both sides of the Philly pitching (starter, bullpen) in Wednesday’s game.

Still, it’s difficult to not overpay for L.A. on the money line. Don’t do it here: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Price has a good history against current Philadelphia batters with a .701 OPS allowed and Dodger batters have a good history against Gibson with a 1.052 OPS. Each of L.A.’s last seven wins was by multiple runs.

BACK THE DODGERS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Fading both starters makes sense here, but there are some cross signals that play the other way also. Overall, there is a marginal push for the OVER 10.5 (-102) on a hot, humid, wind-out day in Philly.

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