Tag: DJ Reader

DJ Reader among 2025 cut candidates for the Lions

DJ Reader listed among top 2025 cut candidates for the Lions by PFN

Pro Football Network released its breakdown of the top cut candidates of the 2025 offseason on Sunday, including some suggestions for the Detroit Lions.

The Lions aren’t particularly hurting for cap space for the time being, but there are still some players on the roster who they could decide to let go to make some room for a particularly large signing down the road. Top cut candidates typically have little-to-no cap hit implications and aren’t owed much money for the remainder of their respective contracts.

PFN’s list recognized the Lions’ cap flexibility at this point as a disclaimer before diving into their cut candidates.

DJ Reader – Defensive Tackle

  • 2025 Cap Number: $12.9 million
  • Cap Saving: $8.0 million (pre-June 1) or $11.7 million (post-June 1)

DJ Reader played more than most Lions defenders in 2024-25, appearing in 15 games. However, Reader only managed 23 tackles and three sacks for all that time.

He’s certainly someone the Lions could hold onto if they believe he would excel on a presumably healthier version of this defense, but if the situation calls for shedding some salary, it could be an easy move to make.

Other cut candidates include the following:

Kalif Raymond – Wide Receiver/Kick Returner

  • 2025 Cap Number: $6.4 million
  • Cap Saving: $3.3 million (pre-June-1), or
    $4.8 million (post-June-1)

Kalif Raymond has become a fan favorite in Detroit as is customary with the undersized, fairly successful kick returner.

However, Raymond’s overall productivity could be cheaply replaced if the team felt like clearing a small amount of cap space in 2025.

Za’Darius Smith – EDGE

  • 2025 Cap: $5.7 million
  • Cap Saving: $5.7 million

Despite what felt like the trade every Lions fan asked for, the acquisition of Za’Darius Smith merely helped the team tread water rather than put them back near where Aiden Hutchinson had their ceiling early in the season.

Smith, 32, performed well but looked every bit his age at times, as he isn’t much of a game-breaker like his position demands. He and the rest of the defensive line were borderline nonexistent in the Lions’ loss to the Commanders, which ended their season.

He’s a solid veteran who could be asked to stick around, but it wouldn’t cost much to let him go.

Jalen Reeves-Maybin – Linebacker

  • 2025 Cap: $4.6 million
  • Cap Saving: $1.9 million

When healthy, the Lions are relatively deep at linebacker. Jalen Reeves-Maybin fell behind Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone and started to fall behind Malcolm Rodriguez before injuries started shaking things up.

Reeves-Maybin received Second Team All-Pro Honors in 2023 but followed that up with a below-average performance overall in 2024. Pro Football Focus ranked him 131st at his position this season, making him an easier cut this season should cuts actually be a conversation at some point.

Film Review: Detroit Lions banged up defense does itself no favors with missed tackles and poor alignment

Film Review: Detroit Lions banged up defense does itself no favors with missed tackles and poor alignment in the loss to the Commanders

It’s no secret that the Detroit Lions loss to the Washington Commanders was shocking. Considering the way the Lions played for most of the season and getting home-field advantage in the playoffs, they seemed destined for a deep playoff run.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders had other plans.

Despite being a rookie quarterback on the road, Daniels shredded the Lions. He was calm, cool and collected under pressure. Despite facing a 36% pressure rate on his dropbacks, Daniels completed 77.8% of his passes under pressure.

One of the strengths of the Commanders offense against the Lions was getting rid of the football quickly. They found the weak spots in the Lions defense and exposed them with quick passes such as slants, hitches and designed screens. When the time was right, they would take deep shots downfield. Let’s dive into some tape to look at how the Lions defense picked the wrong time to play their worst football on the season.

 

Starting with the missed tackles, it was less than ideal to sit and watch this happen over and over again for the Lions defense. Especially since the Lions graded out as the top tackling defense in the NFL this season, per PFF. They earned a 71.7 overall grade this year.

Looking at the clip above, the Lions defense is on a key down and distance of 3rd and 14. If they get a stop, they get off the field and put the ball in the hands of their high-powered offense. However, that quickly changes when Brian Branch (DB #32) misses an open-field tackle.

If Branch would have made the initial tackle, it would have been a gain between 4-to-6 yards. Once he missed the tackle, an additional gain of 6 or 7 yards happened, and this set the Commanders up with a very manageable 4th and 1.

 

Staying on the discussion of missed tackles, we move ahead in the game. This time, the Commanders are faced with 2nd-and-10 on the Lions 25-yard line. The Commanders align in a twins left formation out of shotgun with their ’22’ personnel (two running backs and two tight ends).

Prior to the snap, Jayden Daniels puts running back Austin Ekeler into jet-motion. Faking the hand-off to Ekeler, Daniels looks downfield but notices that the deep routes are covered quickly. With that, he checks the ball down to Ekeler.

Despite catching the ball before the line-of-scrimmage, Ekeler is still able to turn this into a much bigger gain than it should have been. Much of that is due to a missed tackle from Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold. As you can see, Arnold gets hit with a juke move and six yards were gained after the catch.

If Arnold made the tackle, it would have set up 3rd-and-10, but instead, this became a very manageable 3rd down for the Commanders. Essentially, it became two-down territory for them because they were more than willing to go for it on 4th down.

 

Moving on from the missed tackles, let’s take a look at the poor alignments from the Lions defense. There was not a worse alignment than the play above from the Lions this season. Looking at that play, the Commanders come out with a trips bunch formation to the left of the ball.

With 8 defenders in the box, it’s clear that the Lions are worried about stopping the run. Which, in most cases, would make sense if the quarterback couldn’t throw or didn’t make adjustments prior to the snap. However, Jayden Daniels has shown that he could throw and make those adjustments all season.

Against the bunch formation, the Lions essentially have one defender there (poor Kindle Vildor). Coming down late was safety Ifeatu Melifonwu, but the Lions were still outnumbered (3×2), and it’s a tough task for safety Kerby Joseph to pursue from the middle of the field. You can see that after the catch.

Once the ball is snapped, you can see disaster was set to happen for the Lions defense. Daniels fired this pass to wide receiver Terry McLaurin on a designed screen. With both perimeter defenders getting blocked, he was able to slip between them and from there, he was off to the races. This led to a 58-yard touchdown that was scored in one minute and 21 seconds. The Lions went from having a 14-10 lead to being down 17-14 in the snap of a finger.

Overall, it’s all very confusing from the Lions defense. Everyone is destined to have an off day, but this was the worst time of the season to have that off day. It looked like the Lions weren’t prepared for any type of no-huddle or high-tempo style of play from the Commanders. They were constantly caught off guard and with the amount of injuries sustained on the defense, the Lions were substituting on almost every play.

While it kept guys fresh and put certain defenders on the field for certain types of plays, the Lions were still lost coming out of their defensive huddle. It shows with the missed tackles and the missed alignments from their defense. Certainly, their offense did them no favors by turning the football over five times (one for a touchdown) but their defense allowed 481 total yards.

Additionally, they never sacked Daniels and they allowed the Commanders to go 4-for-4 in the red zone. Prior to halftime, the Commanders offense scored 14 points on two offensive drives in 3 minutes and 36 seconds…combined.

That just can’t happen, especially for a team that entered the playoffs as Super Bowl favorites. The regular season was great to watch. There’s certainly talent on this Lions team, including their defense. They just picked a bad day to have a bad day.

Several Lions playing for contract incentive bonuses in Week 18

Several Detroit Lions are playing for contract incentive bonuses against the Vikings in Week 18

By now, everyone knows the stakes for Sunday’s big game in Detroit. Whoever wins between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will win the NFC North, claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, have home-field advantage and the first-round bye. The loser is the No. 5 seed and has to go on the road against either the Rams, Buccaneers or Falcons.

In addition to the team incentives, players have their own individual incentives in their contracts they are striving for and Week 18 is their final opportunity to claim those incentives and pocket some extra money.

Thanks to Spotrac, we can take a look at some of those incentives for the Lions and what they have to play for Sunday night.

Defensive end Za’Darius Smith’s contract includes $250,000 for ten sacks, $500,000 for 12 sacks and $750,000 if he reaches 14 sacks. Those values double with a playoff berth. So if Smith can record two sacks Sunday, he’ll cash in on $500,000.

Defensive tackle DJ Reader is sitting on 46.2% of defensive snaps played this season. If he can reach 50%, he’ll earn $200,000. He also had incentives of $300,000 for 55% of snaps and $500,000 for 60%, but those numbers are unlikely unattainable at this point. 50% is possible. Reader has also already hit his incentive of three sacks for $375,000. He can earn another $375,000 if he records two sacks Sunday.

Punter Jack Fox earned an extra $150,000 for making the Pro Bowl and the Lions reaching the playoffs.

Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, who recently returned from injury, looks to be on his way to a $100,000 payday. He’ll hit that incentive at 25% snaps played. He is at 24.9%, so him playing Sunday will easily put him over the 25% mark.

Lions vs Bills: Final injury report medical analysis plus injured reserve player update

Lions vs Bills: Final injury report medical analysis plus injured reserve player update on when some of those Lions might return

Coming into the season, the Detroit Lions offense was expected to be the strength of this team. That is even more so now with the offense in excellent health coupled with a defense riddled with injury. This past week, Dan Campbell acknowledged that the offense would shoulder more responsibility and to expect the aggressive 4th-down decisions to continue.

With Taylor Decker’s return after missing two games, the Lions offensive starting unit is fully intact and most key reserves are healthy as well. The offense will need to put up points to stay ahead of a high-powered Bills offense which boasts the leading MVP candidate, Josh Allen, and will feature the return of two impact pass catchers in Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman.

The Lions defensive line trended sharply upward during the week with DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal, and Alim McNeill all rapidly progressing to the point that they are definitively in. The linebacker unit took a surprise hit with Trevor Nowaske’s midweek concussion.

The Bills defense will have a banged-up secondary with a starting CB out and both starting safeties nursing injuries with questionable status.

DETROIT LIONS

Out – Trevor Nowaske LB, (UL NP NP)

This backup LB played 64% of snaps last game. Presumably he got a concussion in Wednesday’s practice which will force him to miss this game.

At LB, Jack Campbell played 100% of snaps last game and expect that to continue. Ezekiel Turner (34%), Kwon Alexander (34%), David Long (32%), Jamal Adams (16%), and Ben Niemann (2%) are candidates to fill the void.

In – Alim McNeill DT, concussion (FP FP FP)

See my initial injury report analysis for the full timeline of his concussion. There was also concern for a non-concussion head or jaw issue. Very good news that everything has resolved quickly.

In – Taylor Decker OT, knee (FP FP FP)

A suspected right MCL and right high or medial ankle sprain on November 24 forced him to miss two games. With his return, the entire offensive starters are intact. Dan Skipper, who filled in admirably at LT, will return to his normal role as jumbo TE and 9th-string WR.

In – DJ Reader DT, shoulder (NP LP FP)

Reader hurt his left shoulder on Thanksgiving in a manner that is concerning for a shoulder subluxation and missed one game. While a subluxation is still a possibility, his quick return gives hope that it was just a mild shoulder strain.

In – Levi Onwuzurike DT, hamstring (LP LP FP)

A left hamstring strain on Thanksgiving caused him to miss one game. Hamstrings can easily take multiple weeks so it’s good to see that this one was mild.

In – Josh Paschal DE, knee (LP FP FP)

A right knee injury on Thanksgiving caused him to miss one game. Video did not suggest anything too concerning.

Injured reserve list update

Returning soon:

  • Alex Anzalone, left forearm fracture – Expect his 21-day practice window to open early next week with a possible return to play in week 17 (49ers) or week 18 (Vikings).
  • Kalif Raymond, left foot – Expected by the start of the playoffs. His 21-day practice window should open after next week’s Bears game.

Uncertain but hopeful to return soon:

  • Ennis Rakestraw, hamstring – Eligible to return next week vs the Bears. Keep an eye on if his 21-day practice window opens early next week. If it doesn’t open next week, that implies he is at least three more weeks away.
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu, left finger – Same situation as Rakestraw. Eligible to return next week vs the Bears. Hope for his 21-day practice window to open early next week. If it doesn’t open next week, that implies he is at least three more weeks away.

Early playoffs at best:

  • Jalen Reeves-Maybin, neck – He is eligible to return anytime but has not had his 21-day practice window opened yet. This implies he is at least 3 weeks away. At this point, his earliest projected return would be in the playoffs. Dan Campbell on December 9 corroborated a multi-week timeline stating he’s “better… There’s a chance we could get him in a few weeks.” While there are no details about his neck injury, this update is reassuring that it isn’t anything overly serious.

Late playoffs at best:

  • Aidan Hutchinson, left tib/fib fracture – Expecting very limited action in the Super Bowl although Jay Glazer reported a few days ago that the NFC championship game is a possibility. Currently nine weeks from injury, the bone should be close to healed at this point. Hutchinson has significant expected atrophy in his legs so it all depends on how quickly rehab goes.
  • John Cominsky, MCL surgery – Initial estimate projected a January return at best.
  • Derrick Barnes, right MCL/PCL surgery – Unlikely to be back.

Not expected to return:

  •  Malcolm Rodriguez, right ACL
  •  Marcus Davenport, left elbow
  •  Kyle Peko, left pec
  •  Mekhi Wingo, right knee

NFL IR PLAYOFF RULES

Lions can return as may IR players as they want in the playoffs as long as it doesn’t add up to more than 10 for the entire year (regular season + playoffs). So far, the Lions have returned three (Brodric Martin, Emmanuel Moseley, Ifeatu Melifonwu).

BUFFALO BILLS

Credit to @BangedUpBills for help with the analysis. The Bills had a walkthrough on Wednesday and a virtual meeting only on Thursday.

Out – Rasul Douglas CB, knee (NP NP NP)

This starting CB has not missed a game this year but will miss his first after hurting his left knee last game.

Questionable – Taylor Rapp S, neck/shoulder (NP NP LP)

Rapp hurt himself two weeks ago and was limited in the last game despite playing every snap. He may continue to try to play through but there are rumors that he will be out.

Questionable – Damar Hamlin S, back/ribs (FP NP LP)

This starting safety has played in every game this year logging close to 100% of snaps including 100% last game. Unless something significant happened during walkthroughs, he’ll likely play. He has 2 interceptions this year.

Questionable – Dalton Kincaid TE, knee (FP FP FP)

Expect this starting TE to play after missing the last three games due to a PCL. He is a very good receiver with 34 receptions for 356 yards this year.

Questionable – Dawuane Smoot DE, wrist (FP FP FP)

Smoot missed the last four games on IR with wrist surgery but is eligible to return on Sunday. He typically plays about 50% of snaps.

Questionable – Baylon Spector LB, calf (FP FP FP)

After missing four games on IR, Spector is eligible to return on Sunday. He has started multiple games this year.

Questionable – Casey Toohill DE, ribs (LP LP LP)

Toohill is a backup DE who plays about 25% of snaps.

Questionable – Quintin Morris TE, shoulder/groin (FP FP FP)

Morris is a backup who has 2 receptions for 16 yards this year.

Questionable – Tylan Grable OT, groin (FP FP FP)

Grable has not played since September 23.

In – Keon Coleman WR, wrist (FP FP FP)

This 2nd-round rookie will return after missing the last four games. He has 22 catches for 417 yards which is second on the team behind Khalil Shakir (735 yards).

Here is the full report:

Dan Campbell offers very positive Lions injury update ahead of Week 15

Dan Campbell offers very positive Lions injury update ahead of Week 15 on Decker, McNeill, Reader and more Detroit players

Coming off a mercifully timed extended rest following the Week 14 beatdown of the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions are getting a lot healthier heading into Sunday’s matchup with the visiting Buffalo Bills.

Lions head coach Dan Campbell offered some updates on the walking wounded ahead of Friday’s practice session. He started with defensive lineman Josh Paschal,

“So, looks like Paschal’s gotten through the week pretty good thus far.”

Campbell then continued, hitting on a few other players who have missed time with injuries lately. He noted “as well” in conjunction with Paschal for all the following, indicating they are getting through the week well:

DT DJ Reader
LT Taylor Decker
DT Levi Onwuzurike

In addition, Campbell revealed that DT Alim McNeill has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and will be available to play in Sunday’s big game.

Campbell capped off the injury update by noting,

“We’re trending the right way with all those guys.”

The official injury status report comes out later on Friday.

[lawrence-related id=116743]

 

 

 

 

Lions getting healthier at Thursday’s practice ahead of Week 15

Lions getting healthier at Thursday’s practice ahead of Week 15, with only one player sidelined fully and two others limited

Thursday’s practices in anticipation of the Sunday matchup between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills were quite divergent for the two teams.

The Bills did not have practice due to weather conditions in western New York. Meanwhile, the Lions had a very healthy participation across both sides of the ball.

SAM LB Trevor Nowaske was the only Lions player who was completely out from practice on Thursday. Nowaske is dealing with a concussion, and the timeline with the NFL’s concussion protocol will prevent Nowaske from being available for Sunday’s game in Ford Field.

Two other Lions were listed as limited on the official report: defensive linemen Levi Onwuzurike and DJ Reader. Both DTs missed the Week 14 win over the Packers. Reader’s return at nose tackle would be a big boon against Buffalo. He’s dealing what a shoulder injury, while Onwuzurike is limited with a hamstring.

Everyone else was a full participant, a list that includes starting left tackle Taylor Decker for the second straight day. Decker has missed two weeks with a knee injury. That portends very well for Decker to return at left tackle against the Bills.

[lawrence-related id=116720]

Lions vs Bills: Initial injury report and medical analysis

Lions vs Bills: Initial injury report and medical analysis for the Week 15 matchup at Ford Field

With three games in 12 days, the Lions players (and fans) needed this mini-bye after a slew of injuries accumulated. The main concern is the defensive line which has many players out with short and long-term injuries. Fortunately, the trend is positive with multiple key questionable players in Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike, and Josh Paschal practicing today.

The Bills report consists of mostly FP’s (full practice) and has a couple key pass catchers returning in Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman. They are also returning two players from IR, Baylon Spector and Dawuane Smoot, who are eligible to play this weekend. In bad news, there are a couple recent concerns in the secondary in Rasul Douglas and Taylor Rapp.

DETROIT LIONS

Alim McNeill DT, concussion (FP)

Here’s the timeline of his injury on December 5.

• At the 7-minute mark of the 1st quarter, he was helped off the field. Video was obscured but he may have taken a mild hit to the back of the head when Jamal Adams jumped on him towards the end of the play. He also had his facemask slightly jarred when he made the tackle but this trauma seemed minimal.
• He was taken to the locker room and passed the concussion evaluation.
• Returned to play at the 13-minute mark of 2nd quarter and finished out the first half.
• He did not come out of the locker room at halftime and was officially ruled out with a “head” injury, not a concussion.
• On Monday, December 9, Dan Campbell stated he was in the “protocol” which implied he was diagnosed with a concussion at some point.

Previous history of head trauma:

  • November 10, 2024 – Right TMJ (temporomandibular joint) symptoms. Moving jaw around and palpating directly at the TMJ. No concussion diagnosis.
  • November 23, 2023 – Blow to the right jaw area. Down on field for a while and left game temporarily. No concussion diagnosis.

Analysis: McNeill had a delayed concussion diagnosis from last game. A delayed diagnosis does not represent an oversight by the medical staff or player. Many concussion symptoms are vague such as headache, fogginess, and nausea and can be attributed to other causes.

With a history of TMJ symptoms just four weeks prior, it’s possible that his symptoms were initially thought to be a recurrence of the TMJ. The subsequent concussion diagnosis does not rule out a concurrent TMJ or other “head” injury as his symptoms could be multi-factorial.

With an FP today, it means that McNeill has already passed through multiple stages of the concussion protocol and is firmly on track to play Sunday.

Here is recent Lions concussion history data:

2024: Alex Anzalone and Brian Branch both missed one game following their concussions. Technically, Branch missed the game due to an “illness” but his concussion may have played at least a small part in the decision.

2023: No official concussions during the season. Penei Sewell had one in training camp.

2022: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brock Wright, DeShon Elliott, and Kerby Joseph all returned in one week without missing a game. Jonah Jackson and Jeff Okudah missed the short-week Thanksgiving game.

Taylor Decker OT, knee (FP)

A suspected right MCL and right high or medial ankle sprain on November 24 has caused him to miss two games. The FP means he should play this weekend.

DJ Reader DT, shoulder (NP)

Reader hurt his left shoulder on Thanksgiving in a manner that is concerning for a shoulder subluxation and has missed one game. A subluxation is a partial, transient dislocation of the shoulder. The injury can be rehabbed without surgery but may take multiple weeks. DeShon Elliott in 2022 with the Lions missed two games with a shoulder subluxation/dislocation.

With an NP today, I expect Reader to miss another game.

Levi Onwuzurike DT, hamstring (LP)

A left hamstring strain on Thanksgiving caused him to miss one game. Since hamstrings can get aggravated easily, a gradual ramp-up is advisable. The LP early in the week is a good sign that he is firmly on the ramp and getting close to a return. There is a good chance he will play on Sunday.

Josh Paschal DE, knee (LP)

A right knee injury on Thanksgiving caused him to miss one game. Video did not suggest anything too concerning. A mild bone bruise or knee sprain is likely. The LP gives him a good chance to play this weekend.

 

NOTABLES

Christian Mahogany, OG

This 6th-round rookie got three snaps when Kevin Zeitler exited briefly with a suspected left eye issue. After missing all of training camp and the first half of the season due to mono, it’s notable that Mahogany has already become the primary guard backup. This is good news heading into next season as Zeitler is an unrestricted free agent at the end of this year.

Injured reserve status updates

Returning soon
• Alex Anzalone, left forearm fracture – Expected around week 17-18.
• Kalif Raymond, left foot – Expected by the start of the playoffs.

Uncertain return
• Ennis Rakestraw, hamstring – Eligible to return December 22.
• Ifeatu Melifonwu, left finger – Eligible to return December 22.
• Jalen Reeves-Maybin, neck – He is eligible to return anytime but has not had his 21-day practice window opened yet. This implies he is at least 3 weeks away. Dan Campbell on December 9 corroborated a multi-week timeline stating he’s “better… There’s a chance we could get him in a few weeks.” While there are no details about his neck injury, this update is reassuring that it isn’t anything overly serious.

Late playoffs at best
• Aidan Hutchinson, left tib/fib fracture – Expecting very limited action in the Super Bowl although Jay Glazer reported a few days ago that the NFC championship game is a possibility. Hutchinson is not even walking normally yet so his return depends on how quickly he recovers.
• John Cominsky, MCL surgery – Initial estimate projected a January return at best.
• Derrick Barnes, right MCL/PCL surgery – Unlikely to be back.

Not expected to return
• Malcolm Rodriguez, right ACL
• Marcus Davenport, left elbow
• Kyle Peko, left pec
• Mekhi Wingo, right knee

BUFFALO BILLS

Credit @BangedUpBills for help with the analysis.

Rasul Douglas CB, knee (NP)

This starting CB has not missed a game this year but exited last game with a left knee injury. Video wasn’t clear but a mild MCL sprain is possible.

Taylor Rapp S, neck/shoulder (NP)

This starting safety hurt his neck two weeks ago but still was able to play every snap last game.

Casey Toohill DE, ribs (LP)

Toohill is a backup DE who plays about 25% of snaps.

Dalton Kincaid TE, knee (FP)

Kincaid has missed the last three games due to a PCL and has 34 receptions for 356 yards this year. The FP suggests he will be in.

Keon Coleman WR, wrist (FP)

This 2nd-round rookie has missed the last four games. He has 22 catches for 417 yards. The FP suggests he will be in.

Dawuane Smoot DE, wrist (FP)

Smoot missed the last four games on IR with wrist surgery but is eligible to return on Sunday. He typically plays about 50% of snaps.

Baylon Spector LB, calf (FP)

After missing four games on IR, Spector is eligible to return on Sunday. He has started multiple games this year.

Here is the full Bills report:

Lions vs Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for Week 14

Lions vs Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 14 matchup on Thursday night

For the second week in a row, we are treated to Detroit Lions football on a Thursday instead of the traditional Sunday kickoff. As was the case in Week 13’s Thanksgiving matinee against the Chicago Bears, this Thursday pits the LIons in a home game against a division rival.

This time, it’s Thursday night football against the Green Bay Packers. Yeah, those guys from the other side of Lake Michigan. The place where the Lions roared to a 24-14 victory five weeks ago that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates.

As I sip the morning coffee amidst a winter storm warning that has closed schools and businesses everywhere around me, the chill of the specter of tonight’s game is unavoidable. This is a big one for both teams.

Why I think the Lions will win

The running game with Sonic and Knuckles, better known as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, continues to play exceedingly well. The Lions offense can control the game script because they can run so effectively in any situation. 1st-and-10, Montgomery gets eight. 3rd-and-3, Gibbs blasts off for 17.

The ability to consistently generate big plays from the run game is huge for Detroit. It’s also huge in how it impacts the opposing defense. The Packers linebackers and safeties have to remain alert for the potential that Gibbs will be racing to the outside on a simple zone run, or Montgomery will run through the initial tackle and be charging at them at full speed, often with Penei Sewell and Kevin Zeitler still leading the way well past the line of scrimmage. That’s in addition to their potential coverage responsibilities against Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and even Tim Patrick, who has become more involved in the passing offense since the first meeting.

Detroit might have to focus on outscoring the Packers in this one, thanks to all the defensive attrition. Jared Goff and his merry band of weaponry can do it, and do it unapologetically. That’s a very real edge for the Lions; they’ve done it before and can do it again. The Lions know it, but the Packers do too, and that puts considerable pressure on a young, mistake-prone Green Bay team to try and match. That’s how Detroit so comfortably handled the Week 9 game in Green Bay.

Special teams certainly deserves a nod for the Lions. Punter Jack Fox is having an incredible season. In a golden age of NFL punting, Fox remains the gold standard for consistency in flipping the field. The coverage units have remained strong despite major injury-induced personnel changes, too. Coordinator Dave Fipp has his units playing as well as anyone.

Defensively, there is a “revenge game” angle for a couple of key Lions–perhaps the two most key Detroit defenders. Za’Darius Smith has taken over as the team’s top pass rusher since joining the team. Before he joined the Lions, Smith openly talked about how badly he wanted to come to Detroit specifically so he could play against the Packers, his old team. Smith’s tenure with Green Bay did not end well, and he’s ready to take out some frustration.

Safety Brian Branch had to watch most of the Week 9 win from the locker room after being ejected for a questionable hit. Branch’s ability to make big plays and be a versatile wild card at the back end is integral to everything coordinator Aaron Glenn wants to do defensively, and now Branch has an edge of redemption to him. That should play very well for Detroit.

What worries me about the Packers

Green Bay is playing some very strong football over the past three weeks, winning all three games since losing to Detroit. Their Week 10 bye revived and refocused their offense, notably in ball security. Jordan Love has been playing smarter, cleaner ball; Green Bay has just one giveaway in those three games.

Some of that stems from Josh Jacobs running the ball extremely well. He’s the type of RB that has given the Lions defense some trouble this year, and now the Detroit defense must try to slow him down without premium run defender DJ Reader and three of its top four LBs behind him. Reader’s loss is a big one, because the nose tackle is exceptional at keeping blockers away from Jack Campbell and all the replacements surrounding him at linebacker. Now it’s up to Brodric Martin, who has played exactly two snaps all year. All of the line depth and all of the linebacking depth is completely new from the first meeting.

I give Glenn a ton of credit for keeping the Lions defense formidable throughout all the injuries. But there’s only so much that all those bandages can stretch before they snap, and I worry that happens against a multitalented Packers offense that has been playing largely mistake-free ball lately. Love has found a bit of a rhythm as the Packers lean on Jacobs and a better-than-advertised run blocking OL, and he’s got dangerous weapons in Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Those guys might not be stars, and all have some inconsistency to their games, but they’re playing very well collectively of late.

The Lions patchwork defense has benefitted from playing erratic QBs in Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, each of which plays behind an offensive line that isn’t nearly as good as what it will see against Green Bay. Based on the last few weeks, it’s unfair to lump Love in with those quarterbacks, too.

That’s got the potential for Green Bay to play with a lead, and that’s a bit of an issue for the Lions offense. Not having left tackle Taylor Decker could be very bad for Detroit. Decker wasn’t terribly missed against Chicago and their straightforward pass rush attack. Green Bay does a lot more blitzing and wide-angle rushing than the Bears, and that’s not a strong suit for Decker’s replacement, Dan Skipper. As much as we all love Skipper, he’s also not nearly the run-blocking presence that Decker is. With left guard Graham Glasgow also not playing well of late, I worry that a more one-handed offense will struggle against a swift, aggressive Packers defense.

Final score prediction

The Lions are rightly favored to win, but I can’t escape the feeling that the myriad injuries finally catch up to the team tonight. Not having Decker and Reader is huge; I would pick the Lions if either were playing in Week 14. But they’re not, and Green Bay is playing focused enough that I don’t think the Packers give back that advantage.

Packers 29, Lions 21

Lions vs Packers: Final injury report medical analysis for the Week 14 matchup

Lions vs Packers: Final injury report medical analysis for the final injury report for both teams ahead of Week 14

The second (and not necessarily final) meeting of the Lions and Packers is an enormous game not just for 1st place in the division but also for the extremely valuable 1st seed bye in the NFC.

The NY Times playoff simulator estimates the Lions chances of the #1 seed at 84% with a win vs 40% with a loss. That’s a massive spread.

Defensive health is a problem for the Lions as they will be missing five defenders from last game: Levi Onwuzurike, DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, Malcolm Rodriguez (IR), and Mekhi Wingo (IR). In good news, they’ll be getting back Carlton Davis and Emmanuel Moseley.

On offense, the Lions starters are intact except for Taylor Decker who will miss a second straight game. Dan Skipper figures to start at LT again.

The Packers will be missing a couple key players in Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs. On the bright side, Jordan Love will be healthier than the first meeting when he had a groin injury.

DETROIT LIONS

Out – Taylor Decker LT, knee (NP NP NP)

A suspected right MCL and right high or medial ankle sprain from ten days ago will keep Decker out for a second straight game. He could be back for the next game which is eleven days away.

Out – DJ Reader DT, shoulder (NP NP NP)

Reader landed hard on an outstretched left shoulder which is concerning for a shoulder subluxation/dislocation. These can be played through with rehab but often require surgery down the line. There is no word on his diagnosis yet.

For reference, DeShon Elliott with the Lions in 2022 missed two games with a dislocated shoulder.

Brodric Martin, who only got two snaps in his first game back from IR on Thanksgiving, may see a big increase.

Out – Levi Onwuzurike DT, hamstring (NP NP NP)

Onwuzurike suffered a left hamstring strain on Thanksgiving. He has not been placed on IR suggesting it is not severe.

Out – Josh Paschal DE, knee (NP NP NP)

Paschal hurt his right knee last game. The diagnosis is uncertain but reports are that it isn’t serious.

In – Carlton Davis CB, knee (LP FP FP)

Davis had a non-contact injury to his left knee area ten days ago and missed Thanksgiving. I’m suspecting a mild strain to a muscle/tendon in his posterior knee. With him back, the secondary is at full-strength.

In – Emmanuel Moseley CB, hamstring (FP FP FP)

Moseley missed Thanksgiving due to a mild hamstring but is now ready to go. It will be interesting to see if he gets some snaps at CB for the first time this season.

IR STATUS UPDATE

Returning soon
• Alex Anzalone, left forearm fracture – Expect him around week 17-18.
• Kalif Raymond, left foot – Expect him by the start of the playoffs.

Uncertain return
• Jalen Reeves-Maybin, neck – He is eligible to return this game but did not have his 21-day practice window opened this week. This implies his timeline is at least three more weeks. A neck injury on IR is concerning for a spinal issue.
• Ennis Rakestraw, hamstring – Eligible to return December 22.
• Ifeatu Melifonwu, left finger – Eligible to return December 22.

Late playoffs at best
• Aidan Hutchinson, left tib/fib fracture – Expecting very limited action in Super Bowl.
• John Cominsky, MCL – Initial estimate projected a January return at earliest.
• Derrick Barnes, right MCL/PCL – Unlikely to be back.

Not expected to return
• Malcolm Rodriguez, right ACL
• Marcus Davenport, left elbow
• Kyle Peko, left pec
• Mekhi Wingo, right knee

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Out – Jaire Alexander CB (LP LP NP)

This starting CB missed the last 2 games with a PCL injury that has lingered for multiple weeks. He also missed the first meeting with the Lions. Resting until it’s fully healed is smart.

Out – Romeo Doubs WR (LP LP LP)

Doubs will miss his second straight game with a concussion. He has been productive with 34 catches for 483 yards this year which is second on the team behind Jayden Reed.

Out – Edgerrin Cooper LB, hamstring (NP NP NP)

This 2nd-round rookie missed the last two games with the hamstring. He has 2.5 sacks and 31 solo tackles on the year.

Out – Corey Ballentine CB, knee (NP NP NP)

Ballentine is mainly a special teams player.

In – Josh Jacobs RB, calf (LP LP LP)

Jacobs has 987 yards on the year which is 3rd most in the NFL, just ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs (973 yards).

In – Rasheed Walker OT, knee (LP LP FP)

This starting LT has played every game this year.

In – Josh Myers C, pec (LP LP FP)

Myers is the starting center and has played the last three games.

In – Elgton Jenkins OG, rest (NP LP LP)

Jenkins has started every game this year.

In – Isaiah McDuffie LB, ankle (LP LP FP)

McDuffie has started every game this year.

In – Colby Wooden DE, shoulder (LP LP LP)

Wooden is a part-time player along the defensive line with four solo tackles this year.

In – Kenny Clark NT, rest (LP LP FP)

In – John Fitzpatrick TE, back (LP FP FP)

Lions vs Packers: Monday injury report medical analysis

Lions vs Packers: Monday injury report medical analysis for both teams ahead of Thursday’s game at Ford Field

The Lions have an unusual workweek with two Thursday games in a row. That means yesterday (Sunday) aligns with a typical Wednesday, and today (Monday) is like a Thursday. An NP (no practice) today could be viewed as a typical NP on a Thursday which means leaning out.

My main concerns coming out of last game were Levi Onwuzurike, DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Malcom Rodriguez, and all showed up on today’s report except Rodriguez who was put on IR with a torn ACL. Here is my postgame report with injury videos of those four players.

There was a surprise after the game when Mekhi Wingo was placed on IR with a suspected right knee injury. Dan Campbell stated he is out for the season. We don’t have a diagnosis yet, but here is the video where Wingo may have been hurt:

DETROIT LIONS

Taylor Decker LT, knee (NP)

Dan Campbell stated on Sunday that he’s “day to day… it’ll come down to the wire whether he can go this week.” Video suggested a mild right MCL sprain and mild right high ankle sprain in the Colts game eight days ago. Last year, Decker missed two games with a similar-looking ankle sprain. He is officially listed with only a knee which suggests the knee is the more concerning issue.

Alim McNeill missed four games last year with an MCL that he played through during the game. I’m expecting Decker to be out for at least a second straight game. If he can return next week, that would be a good outcome.

DJ Reader DT, shoulder (NP)

Reader landed hard on an outstretched left shoulder last game which was concerning for a subluxation. He stayed in the game but was clearly bothered. A subluxation could be a long-term issue so hopefully, it’s just a mild shoulder sprain. There is no word on his diagnosis yet.

Levi Onwuzurike DT, hamstring (NP)

Onwuzurike suffered a left hamstring strain on Thanksgiving. He’s likely out this week given the propensity of hamstrings to get aggravated.

Josh Paschal DE, knee (NP)

Paschal took an awkward step and hurt his right knee on Thanksgiving. While the diagnosis is unknown, early signs are that the injury isn’t serious. It’s looking like he’s going to be out this week though.

Carlton Davis CB, knee (LP)

Davis had a non-contact injury to his left knee area eight days ago and missed Thanksgiving. I’m suspecting a mild strain to a muscle/tendon in his posterior knee. The LP is a very good sign that the injury is minor and he could be ready for Thursday.

Dan Campbell on Saturday stated: “He’s day to day, questionable”

Emmanuel Moseley CB, hamstring (FP)

Now we have the answer to the mystery pregame issue that caused Moseley to miss Thanksgiving. Good news that the hamstring is very minor and the FP means he’s on track to play vs the Packers.

PLAYERS ON IR

Returning soon:

  • Alex Anzalone, left forearm fracture – Expect him at the end of the regular season.
  • Kalif Raymond, left foot – Expect him towards the end of the regular season.

Uncertain return:

  • Jalen Reeves-Maybin, neck – Eligible to return this week.
  • Ennis Rakestraw, hamstring – Eligible to return December 22.
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu, left finger – Eligible to return December 22.

Late playoffs at best:

  • Aidan Hutchinson, left tib/fib fracture – Expecting very limited action in Super Bowl.
  • John Cominsky, MCL – Projected January return at earliest.
  • Derrick Barnes, right MCL/PCL – Unlikely to be back.

Not expected to return:

  • Malcolm Rodriguez, right ACL
  • Marcus Davenport, left elbow
  • Kyle Peko, left pec
  • Mekhi Wingo, right knee

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Jaire Alexander CB, knee (LP)

This starting CB has missed 2 games with the PCL injury that has lingered for multiple weeks. While he could probably use more time off, he may be playing vs the Lions.

Romeo Doubs WR, concussion (LP)

Doubs missed last game with a concussion. It looks like he’s progressing well through the protocol and will play. He has been productive with 34 catches for 483 yards this year which is second on the team behind Jayden Reed.

Edgerrin Cooper LB, hamstring (NP)

This 2nd-round rookie has missed the last two games with the hamstring and it looks like he’ll miss another. He has 2.5 sacks and 31 solo tackles on the year.

Corey Ballentine CB, knee (NP)

Ballentine is mainly a special teams player.

Elgton Jenkins OG, knee (NP)

Jenkins is a starting OG and has played in every game this year.

Here is the full Packers report: