The Oklahoma Sooners have nearly made it through a long offseason. Just about three weeks remain until football season is back at OU.
Nationally, Oklahoma is thought to be a somewhat middle-of-the-road team in its first season in the [autotag]SEC[/autotag]. The Sooners were picked eighth in the preseason SEC media poll and outside of the top 16 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
One of Fox Sports’ leading college football experts, Joel Klatt, has the Sooners a bit higher in his preseason rankings. On “The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast,” he revealed his top 25 teams heading into the season.
Klatt has the Sooners ranked No. 15 (surprisingly, one spot behind USC) and sixth in the SEC. That’s a bit more of a favorable draw than what OU has been getting nationally and in the conference.
But Klatt gave some interesting reasons he has Oklahoma where he does, beginning with the defense.
Defense Ready to shine
“I really love OU, so why are they 15th? Well let’s go through it,” Klatt said. “[autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag] now entering Year 3 had nice jump last year with 10 wins. Going to the SEC, the defense has veteran talent. I think that the defense can be better and they need to be better. They gave up far too many big plays a year ago. They’ve got [autotag]Billy Bowman[/autotag] in the back end, they’ve got [autotag]Danny Stutsman[/autotag] who comes back, they need to keep improving.”
Oklahoma’s continued defensive improvement will be paramount if the Sooners want to compete in the SEC. There’s no doubt OU is entering a trenches and defensive-minded league and will have to excel in those areas to have sustained and high-level success. However, Klatt had far more to say about OU’s offense.
The Next Great QB
“[autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag] is going to take over at quarterback as [autotag]Dillon Gabriel[/autotag] goes on to Oregon. Now just the same as Kansas State (Klatt’s No. 16 team), what we have to do is start trusting these programs,” Klatt said. “So Avery Johnson at Kansas State and Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma, within those programs they are thought to be better than than the options that they had. Now what you’re going to have is two teams that will be in my top four in Oregon and Ohio State that took those quarterbacks, Will Howard, who was cast off by Kansas State, and Dillon Gabriel by Oklahoma, and those teams are placing hopes on those guys’ shoulders. Now maybe less so Will Howard at Ohio State than Dillon Gabriel at Oregon, but shouldn’t that lead us to believe that there are upgrades behind them at Oklahoma and Kansas State? That’s what I believe in Jackson Arnold and so I think that they could be and and should be much better than what they were even a year ago when they won 10 games.”
The point Klatt is making, as it refers to the Sooners, is it was always the plan in Norman that Arnold would sit and learn behind Gabriel in 2023 before taking the reins and becoming the starter in 2024. Once Gabriel decided to stay in college football, he and OU made the decision together that he would transfer and play elsewhere so Arnold could take his place in the starting lineup.
Everyone expected that Gabriel’s college days were over, but in an interview with The Athletic’s Christopher Kamrani (subscription required), Gabriel and his family revealed he had received a seventh-round/undrafted free agent NFL draft grade. That led to his decision to return for one more year of college football. However, according to the story, it was Arnold who was the motivating factor in Gabriel’s decision to transfer away from Norman, in a very positive sense.
According to Gabriel’s mom via The Athletic, the former OU quarterback was concerned “Jackson might leave, and he didn’t want that for the program.”
So, saying that Gabriel was “cast off” by OU isn’t entirely accurate. All parties involved (Gabriel and OU) felt they needed to do right by Arnold and own up to the promise that had been made and the plan that had been set up months in advance.
In the end, everyone may benefit.
Gabriel gets to join an Oregon roster that many believe is ready to compete for a [autotag]Big Ten[/autotag] title (and maybe more) under head coach Dan Lanning. Oklahoma begins a new era under center in the SEC with Arnold, who fans have been waiting to see for a long time. His upside and talent seem limitless at this point.
To that point, Arnold’s abilities and skills have Klatt excited for how he can unlock a new level in OU’s offense.
Deep Shots Engaged
“Another thing that I would say about Arnold is I do think that Arnold is a better fit schematically in what he brings to the table and then what their wide receivers and their talent can do on the outside,” Klatt said. “I made this point a year ago. They’ve got [autotag]Nic Anderson[/autotag] as a wide receiver, [autotag]Andrel Anthony[/autotag], a transfer from Michigan from last year, [autotag]Jayden Gibson[/autotag], [autotag]Jalil Farooq[/autotag], they’re going to bring in a transfer this year, [autotag]Deion Burks[/autotag], and that’s a downfield passing team and a wide receiver core that is best downfield. Dillon Gabriel is a point guard; he wants to throw the ball short, be accurate and get the ball out of his hands. That’s not what they had last year. So I felt like they were not quite optimized with what they had on the field a year ago and now moving forward, I think that they can be optimized.”
Though OU’s wide receiver room is going to be a bit banged up early in the season, Klatt’s point still rings true. Gabriel lacked some of the arm strength and anticipation on deep throws that Arnold already has in his wheelhouse. Simply put, the two are just different types of quarterbacks with what they do well. Oklahoma has deep threats all over the field at wide receiver, and the expectation is that the Sooners will run the ball quite a bit and then take deep shots more frequently in the passing game. Deep passes are one area that the Sooners can improve upon from a year ago.
But Klatt’s main reason for having the Sooners at No. 15 comes back to a major talking point this offseason for Oklahoma: Its schedule.
Brutal Schedule
“Their schedule is brutal. Brutal,” Klatt said. “I’m just going to give you the six toughest games that they have. They’re going to face
Tennessee,
Texas in that neutral game, at Ole Miss, at Missouri,
Alabama, at
LSU. That’s just their six toughest games. They have some other ones that are also tough, like they play
Auburn. The schedule does them no favor. So think about this now, if you just play it out and you play out the math, they have to take care of business in every other game outside of these six, and split those six and go 3-3. If they can go 3-3 in those six games, I believe that they’re going to be a playoff team, and should be a playoff team, I’ll state it right now in the preseason. If they split those six games, 3-3, they should, and will, go to the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] … brutal schedule. They win three of them, they’ll go to the playoff.
All six of the teams Klatt mentioned as OU’s toughest games were inside his Top 25. Four teams were ranked above the Sooners (Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri) and two were behind Oklahoma (Tennessee and LSU) with only two teams from the SEC not on OU’s schedule in his Top 25 in
Georgia and
Texas A&M.
While Klatt mentioned the road trip to Auburn, he didn’t mention home contests against Tulane and South Carolina, which aren’t layups either. Only the home games against Temple, Houston and Maine look likely to be easier wins for the Sooners, but college football is nothing if not unpredictable.
Yes, the schedule is brutal. It’s been written about all offseason long, along with the offensive line concerns. But, as Klatt illustrated, there is a path to navigating the treacherous waters.
The Sooners have to take care of business against Temple, Houston, Tulane, Auburn, South Carolina and Maine if they want to to meet expectations this year. Of those games, Auburn will likely be the toughest opponent, but OU should be favored, even on the road.
Splitting games against Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU will be extremely difficult. But, as Klatt said, doing so, and taking care of business elsewhere to get to 9-3 with that schedule in this conference should be enough for a playoff berth, even with the unknown parameters of the new 12-team model.
And what better way for Venables and the Sooners to prove to the country that Oklahoma is fully back to being itself than by getting to the the College Football Playoff in Year 1 in the SEC?
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