Tag: DFS Week 6 sleepers

In case the Britons thought we were being cruel last week by giving them Atlanta and the New York Jets, we double down on insulting their love of American football this week by giving them the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.

We also have our first byes of the season as the New Orleans Saints, Jets, Falcons, and San Francisco 49ers all take a week to reassess their flailing lots in life. Plus, we will be without six other teams that play the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games.

All together that takes 12 teams out of the player pool for the main slate. That is more than one-third of the NFL player pool. This should get interesting. Pair that with all of the fantasy-relevant injuries from last week and we have the makings of a three-ring DFS circus. So without further ado, let’s pull back the curtain.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

When they scheduled this game for primetime back this spring I am sure that the schedule makers were pumped to see Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger lock horns. Well, fast-forward six weeks and Wilson is out with injury and Geno Smith will have to lead the Seattle Seahawks into battle. Pittsburgh’s defense has been a shell of what was predicted coming into the season, but I still cannot get behind Smith as more than QB4 on the docket.

In addition to being without Wilson, we get to witness something resembling what was Ben Roethlisberger attempt to relive his glory days. Unfortunately for Ben, he will be without one of his top receivers, and he has to play behind a shoddy offensive line. Seattle’s secondary woes should mask some of the Pittsburgh offensive issues, but you still have to feel like 275-3 is Ben’s absolute ceiling. Still, on this slate that might be second best at the position.

Chris Carson missed last week with a neck injury. This is not optimal for a running back. It has been reported that Carson will have a shot to play this week. I’m not holding my breath. Especially with this being a late start. Even if he does play, one bad hit and he will end up sidelined again. I’d almost rather watch Seattle put him on IR and let him fully heal before reintroducing him to full contact. If Carson plays, he is no better than RB3 on the slate, and I’m going nowhere near him. Alex Collins filled in last week and looked very good. If Carson is out, Collins is the clear RB3 on the slate based on volume alone and should be your FLEX. If Carson does play, Collins could see FLEX value if you believe that Carson will be knocked out midgame. DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer split a third of the touches last week. This isn’t a great matchup. So, neither deserves consideration, regardless of what happens with Carson.

Najee Harris has dominated the backfield touches for Pittsburgh. He has handled a mind-boggling 88 percent of the RB opportunities for the Steelers. Seattle has been bloodied by opposing rushing backs. They stand no chance here. I’ll pencil Harris in for 140 total yards and at least one TD as RB2 on the slate.

Seattle has two possible WR1 candidates every week. The hard part is deciding which weeks Tyler Lockett will have any value. Pittsburgh has been equally burnt by both big-bodied WRs and speed receivers this year. So, a lot falls on whether Smith can deliver the deep bombs needed to support Lockett’s value. I’m not holding my breath on that one. For me, Lockett will be an overpriced trap here. I do like DK Metcalf here. He has five touchdowns in five games and Smith kept him involved last week. That said, this is a deep WR pool this week, so weigh your options (especially if you intend to roster both Najee Harris and Derrick Henry at RB). If Wilson was the QB, I would use Freddie Swain as a possible WR3. With Geno at the helm, I don’t even think I’d use him in Showdown.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is out for the season following shoulder surgery. This should make the roster decisions easier for Pittsburgh WR owners. With three alphas to consider, choosing the right ones was hard. One less option improves the outlook week-to-week for Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. What is disappointing is that Johnson received his lowest target output of the season last week. That should change here as Seattle has been nothing short of atrocious against the pass. Both should be targeted double-digit times, and I like each to post about 8-80-1. Claypool has the higher TD upside as he is the larger-bodied option built for red zone action, but both will score. Ray-Ray McCloud was on the field for more than half of the Pittsburgh snaps last week, but he did very little with that playing time. I’m maybe using him in Showdown but only if James Washington is still out. If Washington returns from his groin injury, McCloud is bench chaff and Washington can be considered as a WR3/FLEX option.

Will Dissly did nothing with his opportunity to lead the Seattle TE room. I would still consider him in Showdown, because his price will be infinitesimal, but just know that Pittsburgh is very good against TE. Plus, Gerald Everett is expected back from the COVID list to reassume the lead role. It is a shaky slate for the position, which gives Everett a thin hold on TE2. I just don’t like the matchup for upside.

Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron are back to splitting targets for Pittsburgh. Their matchup is better than on the other side of the ball, but I don’t trust either enough to use them here.

Pittsburgh’s defense has sucked this year, but against the backup QB, they deserve the DST1 rating this week. I also don’t mind using Seattle here despite their defensive struggles, since Big Ben is looking like a turnover machine.

Monday night Buffalo travels south to Tennessee. The Titans have struggled with every QB they have faced except Carson Wentz. Topping things off, they have even given up a pair of QB rushing TDs this year. Josh Allen has done that several times over his career, and he will get another this week. Of course, Allen will also throw for 300-3 making him the obvious QB1 here on a weak QB slate.

I like Ryan Tannehill more in reality than fantasy this year. He has thrown for one or zero TDs in four of the five games so far. In his defense, he has been short-handed at WR. Buffalo is stingy against the pass. So, even if Tannehill gets all of his weapons back, I can’t trust him as more than QB3 here.

Zack Moss continues to dominate the backfield usage by Buffalo over Devin Singletary. Tennessee was gouged by James Robinson last week, but they haven’t been atrocious against the run, since every team just throws the ball at will against them. Moss is clearly the better receiver of the two, and he is the goal line option as well. I’d use Moss as my FLEX if Carson suits up for Seattle. Singletary can probably stay planted on your bench.

Derrick Henry is the only reason why Najee Harris isn’t the RB1 here. Henry has averaged 172 combo yards per game over the last four weeks. Henry’s receptions have started to dwindle once again, but it doesn’t matter as no one can contain him for 60 minutes. Jeremy McNichols (ankle) could be a sneaky FLEX play if Tennessee falls behind huge early and has to abandon the run, or if the Titans remain short-handed at WR.

Stefon Diggs owners have to be getting frustrated with his lack of TDs this year. After last week’s dud, they may trade him to you for pennies on the dollar. Diggs is not one to remain silent about a lack of usage. So, I am expecting him to get his wheels squeaking at some point this week. Coming off a poor outing, his ownership might be down in DFS as well. This means he is the perfect WR1 choice this week. If you want access to this offense for less money, both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley can be used. Sanders has had four TDs over the last three games. This recency bias should drive his ownership up. Meanwhile, Beasley has been quiet the last two weeks. I will gladly use him here at WR3 as he is overdue. Gabriel Davis finally caught a pass last week. This alone is newsworthy. I’ll still leave him for Showdown lineups.

A.J. Brown returned last week from a hamstring injury and did a whole lot of nothing. This should be fairly familiar to his owners since he has not done anything this year. It won’t be any easier this week against Tre’Davious White. If Julio Jones misses this game, Brown will see some volume, but it won’t be quality. At this point, I don’t trust Brown as more than a WR3 and his price won’t represent that. Speaking of Julio, his presence could help Brown, or he could show up as a decoy. That said, his chances of playing are still no better than 50-50. Coming off of his own hamstring injury, it may be better for Tennessee to hold him out again. Both Chester Rogers and Josh Reynolds faded into oblivion last week falling behind even the returning Marcus Johnson. You can leave both Rogers and Reynolds out of your lineups. Johnson, on the other hand, has field-stretching ability that plays well as a fill-in for Jones. If Julio misses this game, I could see using him as a punt WR3/FLEX.

So, this is what it has degraded to … Dawson Knox is the TE1 on this slate. He is averaging under four catches per game but has five TDs over the last four contests. The rest of the position looks weak here, so just use him.

Anthony Firkser is a decent TE, but the matchup alone isn’t strong enough to make him start-worthy. It really sucks that MyCole Pruitt vultured him last week, but even if Firkser got that score last week, I still wouldn’t feel great playing him. He gets a courtesy TE3 rank here, which could bump to a TE2 (albeit one with a low ceiling) if Jones doesn’t play.

Buffalo is the best real defense on this slate. With the obvious exception of Henry, Tennessee is weak enough offensively to use them here. Tennessee, on the other hand, should be nowhere near any DFS lineup.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $8.3k for Patrick Mahomes. $7.9k for Austin Ekeler. $6.6k for Jonathan Taylor. $3.1k for John Ross. $4.2k for Mecole Hardman. $4.2k for Amon-Ra St. Brown. $7K for Travis Kelce. $4.7k for Brandon Bolden at FLEX. $3.5k for the Indianapolis Colts defense.

At FD: $9k for Mahomes. $8.4k for Ekeler. $7.5k for Taylor. $7.9k for Cooper Kupp. $5.4k for Ross. $5.2k for St. Brown. $5.5k for Tyler Higbee. $5.2k for Darrel Williams at FLEX. $5k for the Los Angeles Rams defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Mahomes, Joe Burrow at SF, Ekeler, Taylor, Najee Harris at FLEX, Ja’Marr Chase, St. Brown, Hardman, and Ricky Seals-Jones.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Patrick Mahomes is due for a huge game, and he gets the perfect creampuff to unload against. I expect to use him in many lineups. There are three higher-priced pivots that I like in Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow. Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz are both safe discount options with capped ceilings. I also have three upside punt options in Mac Jones, Jared Goff, and Davis Mills.

Fantasy Four-pack

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs @ WAS
($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)
Washington has given up four passing TDs in three straight games. Now they have to face a Chiefs offense that is desperate for a victory and without their primary running back. What this means is Mahomes will throw the ball at least 60 times this game. We could see 500-5 here.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ CHI
($7,200 DK, $7,700 FD)
Rodgers should have an easy time going against a Chicago defense that played better in Week 5 but that has played mediocre the rest of the year. Last year, Rodgers threw for eight touchdowns against this defense. That was over two games, but you get the picture. Rodgers has a huge simpatico thing going with Davante Adams right now. Get them both into your lineup if you can.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ CLE
($7,900 DK, $8,400 FD) 
The two premium QBs to face Cleveland this season (Mahomes and Justin Herbert) both decimated this defense. Murray should make it a hat trick. After scoring nine times over the first two weeks, Murray has accounted for only four scores over the last three. Still, Cleveland has allowed three different QBs to score a rushing TD. This is something that Kyler has an obvious familiarity with. If he can rush one in on top of a pair of passing scores then he will lock up a top-three fantasy line this week.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. LAC
($7,400 DK, $8,200 FD)
I need to give props to Jackson for his amazing comeback performance on MNF. It took him a while to get going, but in the second half he opened up a can of whoop-a$$ on the Indianapolis Colts. The Los Angeles Chargers are easier to run than pass against, but Jackson does both effectively. Plus, he will likely get back Rashod Bateman this week, and he might be an even better stack option than Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews.

DFS Sleepers

Carson Wentz, Colts vs. HOU
($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
Houston has allowed 11 total TDs to the QB position despite facing four middling passers (and Allen). Carson Wentz is on par with the other also-rans the Houston Texans have crumbled against, so a 250-2 line seems like a safe floor. Plus, we need to pay close attention to the potential return of T.Y. Hilton this week. If you look up the Texans’ Wikipedia page, it lists Hilton as their father. Even if Hilton is only 50 percent but dressing this week, I will have a stack built around him. If Hilton doesn’t play, Michael Pittman can stand in as a stepfather.

Jared Goff, Lions vs. CIN
($5,100 DK, $6,900 FD)
Cincinnati has fared well against the two rookie QBs they have faced this year. Of course, all three grizzled veterans they have faced have thrown for over 300 yards against this defense. Goff will have to deal with a short-handed passing game with Quintez Cephus out for the year and Tyrell Williams still out with a concussion. He does have some other young talent to work with in Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown, not to mention T.J. Hockenson and the running backs. Cincy has really struggled with pass-catching RBs this year, so consider that when you make your discount stacks.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Austin Ekeler is at a reduced price for a top RB, and he has a very nice matchup. I will have him in most of my lineups. I will likely pair him with one of Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, or D’Andre Swift. I’m not sure I am ready to spend up for Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey against each other and possibly on snap counts, if they even play. If I need to save a little money, I could use Darrell Henderson or Damien Williams (if he can clear COVID protocols). Damien Harris could also be a nice play if he can play through his rib injury. Also, keep an eye on Kareem Hunt with Nick Chubb is forced to miss this game. You can take a flier on Darrel Williams or Devontae Booker as injury replacements who will get volume. Unfortunately, they both have tough matchups. If I choose to spend down here, Brandon Bolden, Sony Michel, and Khalil Herbert (especially if Williams misses this game with COVID) are my favorite choices. Samaje Perine could also be valuable if he recovers from his COVID diagnosis.

Fantasy Four-pack

Austin Ekeler, Chargers @ BAL
($7,900 DK, $8,400 FD)
Ekeler’s price is weirdly discounted despite his scoring six TDs over the last three weeks. Baltimore is not the run-stopping force that you might remember from a few years back. They have especially struggled with pass-catching backs. Ekeler will get about 50 yards on the ground and maybe a score, but I can see him blowing away value by finishing with 8-75-1 through the air.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. HOU
($6,600 DK, $7,500 FD) 
Taylor is also badly underpriced, especially since he is facing the rotten Texans. His usage has been a tad sporadic as Indy has attempted to rotate in Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack. Still, Taylor has made a statement scoring three times in the last two weeks while reestablishing himself as the alpha.

Kareem Hunt, Browns vs. ARI
($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD)
Arizona has struggled this year against top-tier RBs. I would have preferred Nick Chubb this week prior to him being ruled out. With the bulk of the touches going to Hunt, he should be a dual-threat monster.

D’Andre Swift, Lions vs. CIN
($6,300 DK, $7,100 FD)
As mentioned above, the Bengals are horrible against pass-catching backs. Swift has split carries with Jamaal Williams this year, but D’Andre has stepped up of late as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. Swift should see even more opportunities this week as Detroit will likely be playing from behind and are without their top two WRs.

DFS Sleepers

Devontae Booker, Giants vs. LAR
($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD)
Despite having a ferocious defense, the Rams have actually been so-so against opposing RBs. Based on volume alone, Booker should see 20-25 touches this week. Especially with New York being short-handed in their passing game. Devontae hasn’t been a huge pass catcher in the past, but he did haul in three of four targets last week, including an airborne TD. I see no way that Booker doesn’t finish with at least 80 total yards and a single score.

Brandon Bolden, Patriots vs. DAL
($4,700 DK, $5,200 FD)
Opposing RBs are averaging seven catches per game against Dallas. That is Bolden’s primary role on this offense. Damien Harris is dealing with injured ribs, but it sounds like he will play. The Patriots will also use Rhamondre Stevenson in the run game, but Bill Belichick already has him on a short leash. If Harris reinjures his ribs or cannot go, Bolden could easily get carries on top of the receiving work, making him even more valuable.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – I don’t know if I can afford to spend up at WR this week. I would certainly like to since both Tyreek Hill (If he gets past his quad issue) and Davante Adams are primed to blow up. I will probably force myself to fit one of them under the cap at WR1. If I choose to go cheaper, D.J. Moore, Ja’Marr Chase, and Terry McLaurin all look juicy. One of those five will probably be my WR1. There are three WRs that I love in the WR2 range: Brandin Cooks, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Pittman all have great matchups. Of course, if T.Y. Hilton plays he is a must-start at such a discount price. Hilton could be your WR3, but I also really like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashod Bateman, and Mecole Hardman (if Tyreek is out), along with the WRs other than Sterling Shepard that start for the Giants.

Fantasy Four-pack

Davante Adams, Packers @ CHI
($9,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Adams destroyed Cincinnati last week (just as we predicted). This week won’t be as easy, but he has scored at least once in seven of his last 10 games against Chicago. It helps you land a few scores when you are getting 45 targets over the last three weeks. He won’t finish with 200-plus yards again, but I could realistically see 10-125-1 here.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs @ WAS
($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)
Hill exited Sunday’s game with a slightly dinged-up knee that later was deemed a quad injury. Early reports are that this is a nothing burger. If he plays he is in the WR1 conversation. Meanwhile, Washington has allowed the second-most yards to opposing WRs among teams on this slate. Plus, no team has allowed more total receptions to the position among teams on this slate. Tyreek and Patrick Mahomes make a great stack, but don’t forget about Mecole Hardman, too. Every team to face Washington this year has had multiple fantasy-relevant WR performances.

Cooper Kupp, Rams @ NYG
($7,900 DK, $8,200 FD)
Coming off of a game where Matthew Stafford went out of his way to use Robert Woods instead of Kupp, people may be shy to use Cooper. Give me that lower ownership percentage all day! Kupp is still an elite WR going against a subpar secondary that has one legit CB, who very well may line up opposite Woods. Plus, it wasn’t as if he was ignored last week. He still had double-digit targets for the fifth straight game.

DJ Moore, Panthers vs. MIN
($7,300 DK, $7,600 FD)
Moore just finished his roughest game of the season against a very tough Philly secondary and was taken for a Slay ride. This week he gets an easier-to-exploit Minnesota Vikings’ secondary that still feels it necessary to start Bashaud “Burned” Breeland. Plus, Minnesota won’t be able to key on Moore if Christian McCaffrey returns. Don’t be surprised if Moore scores a pair this week.

DFS Sleepers

Jakobi Meyers, Patriots vs. DAL
($5,500 DK, $5,800 FD)
The Patriots stack is going to be one of my most used this week. Mac Jones and Meyers are both cheap enough to help you fit one of the stud WRs plus two very good RBs. Dallas has been abused by every WR1 they have faced this year, including a smashing by Kadarius Toney last week. If the “scary” duo of Mike Glennon and Toney can clobber this defense, I have solid faith in Jones and Jakobi.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions vs. CIN
($4,200 DK, $5,200 FD)
St. Brown is my favorite cheap WR3 play this week. Assuming that T.Y Hilton does not play against Houston, I doubt there is a way for me to fade Amon-Ra here. St. Brown has eight targets each of the last two weeks and now Detroit will be without both Tyrell Williams and Quintez Cephus. I also like Kalif Raymond here, but St. Brown is cheaper and he has been more consistent in his usage. I may even build some stacks with him, Jared Goff, and D’Andre Swift.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Both Travis Kelce and Darren Waller seem slightly underpriced on DK, but I cannot really afford either of them this week based on my roster build. Mark Andrews is even cheaper, but he may be over-owned after last week’s heroics. I believe that Tyler Higbee is the best/safest per-dollar option on the board. C.J. Uzomah and Mo Alie-Cox are more TD-dependent, but both feel like safe TD targets. My favorite play this week is Ricky Seals-Jones in the revenge game versus KC. He could be a great punt, as could Donald Parham, who has become a red-zone beast.

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ WAS
($7,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Kelce suffered a mild neck injury last week but all signs point to him playing here. The price on DK is so very inviting as Kelce’s weekly floor is 21 points. I prefer the QB-WR matchups in this game slightly more, but if you can afford Kelce, it is never a bad idea to play him. He could be a huge play if Tyreek Hill misses this game with a quad injury.

Darren Waller, Raiders @ DEN
($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
Speaking of underpriced stud tight ends, Waller also feels slighted here. His usage since Week 1 has been steady, but he hasn’t been the target hog that he has been in prior seasons. A new coaching regime in Vegas makes this game the most intriguing from a gameplan standpoint. With changes imminent, I presume that Derek Carr will seek out the targets he is most comfortable with. That is Waller. Denver’s numbers look elite against TEs, but Mark Andrews is the only legit option they have faced. Last year, Waller had a dud against Denver early on but finished the season with a steamrolling of them.

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. LAC
($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD)
How does Andrews get only a $5.2k salary after that last game? Heck, even the $6.3k seems too low. I mean, it would be one thing if the Chargers were defensive dynamos against the position. They aren’t. In fact, only two teams have allowed more yardage to tight ends. I really will do what I can to fit him into my lineups. My only concern here is that at this price and with the recency bias of last week, his ownership percentage will be astronomical.

Tyler Higbee, Rams @ NYG ($4,400 DK, $5,500 FD)
A few years back we regularly picked on the Cardinals for their ineptitude at covering TEs. This year, that “honor” goes to the Giants. In Week 5, Dalton Schultz and the Cowboys were the first TE room to not score against this defense. Schultz still posted a strong 6-79 against them. Tyler Higbee has been quiet from a yardage standpoint recently, but he has still managed to snag two TDs over the last three weeks. He also has five or more targets in three of the five games.

DFS Sleepers

Mo Alie-Cox, Colts vs. HOU
($3,100 DK, $5,000 FD)
Alie-Cox has averaged only 3-46 over the past two weeks, but he did score twice in Week 4. Meanwhile, Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, the fourth-most yards, and the most TDs to the position. Jack Doyle could reestablish his role in the passing game and/or T.Y. Hilton could return and usurp all of the inside targets, but Big Mo just needs that one red-zone target to reach 3x on DK. In a good matchup, I’ll roll those dice.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Football Team vs. KC
($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD)
The Chiefs have allowed an average of 93 receiving yards to the TE position. The caveat to that is that they have faced a murderer’s row of TEs … oh wait, no they haven’t … they’ve just faced a bunch of middle-of-the-road guys. Interestingly enough, Seals-Jones has faced KC only once before. That was back in 2018 with the Cardinals. In that game, he set a career-high in targets and receptions. KC will be ahead in this game, so Washington will be forced to throw the ball a lot. They will also be without Logan Thomas, also likely down Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown. In what is technically a revenge game, I like RSJ to have an above-average performance at a minimal salary.