Tag: DFS Week 5 sleepers

We have one more week of full roster main slate before the byes start infesting this game. So as an advance to the bye week terrorism, the NFL has graced us with the first London game of the year. The New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons will not be included in the main slate on FD or DK.

Fortunately, that only takes about six legitimate options off of the table as both of those teams are pretty devoid of talent.

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m moderately concerned that the British government may consider the U.S. sending them the Falcons and Jets as an act of war. At best, they will just cut off our supply of sticky toffee pudding and spotted dick.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

The schedule gurus do strike a blow to the main slate as Buffalo and Kansas City lock horns on Sunday night. Josh Allen has the best matchup among the four QBs here. That said, this should be a shootout and both he and Patrick Mahomes will share QB1 honors. KC has been one of the worst teams in the league on defense against both the run and the pass. So, I am firmly expecting Allen to finish with 300-3 through the air and at least one rushing score as well.

The Bills’ pass defense actually ranks first overall. Of course, they have faced the washed-up remains of Ben Roethlisberger, an injured Tua Tagovailoa, and Jacoby Brissett, backup QB Taylor Heinecke, and the shouldn’t-be-on-an-NFL roster Davis Mills. Buffalo has one great CB, and he alone will not be able to stifle the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes should still post 300-3 as well … he just doesn’t have the rushing TD upside. The thing to remember here, however, is that this game could devolve quickly into a track meet. If that happens both QBs have a legitimate chance at approaching 500 yards and five TDs. Amazingly, last season, these two teams combined for only 43 total points on MNF in mid-October. They then met up again in the postseason to post a more expected 62 combined points.

Zack Moss has established himself as the goal line back for Buffalo. He has also evenly split all of the carries and targets since being inactive in Week 1. The Chiefs are worse against the run than the pass, but I expect this game to be a throwing fest. In a split backfield, he is no better than the RB2 here. Devin Singletary has been decent as well but just isn’t getting any TD love. In a favorable matchup, he still deserves consideration at FLEX. Unfortunately, both of them are in danger of losing rushing TDs to Josh Allen and short-yardage scores to Dawson Knox.

After being underutilized the first couple of weeks, Kansas City has allowed Clyde Edwards-Helaire to top the 100-yard rushing mark in back-to-back games. Negative game scripts have taken out every RB to face Buffalo so far this year. They’ve allowed a few yards through the air but not much on the ground. The game script won’t be negative here — it will be sideways. This suggests that CEH joins Zach Moss in the RB2 discussion at best. Your hope here is that he catches another shuttle pass for a touchdown. Darrel Williams actually outperformed Edwards-Helaire in the playoffs last year. He has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, but he remains primarily a handcuff. There are enough talents on this slate to bypass Williams in tournaments, but he could be used in Showdown contests.

Stefon Diggs hasn’t been the touchdown threat he was last year, having scored only once through the first four weeks. Still, he is averaging 10 targets per week and posting reasonable supplementary stats. I have him as the top WR on this slate, because Tyreek Hill may have to deal with Tre’Davious White and because KC has allowed a 7-122 WR performance to each of the last two teams they have faced. Plus, despite the 7-122 line,  DeVonta Smith has been the only WR1 to not score against this defense. Secondary WRs have also had success against KC this season. I will give the slight edge to Emmanuel Sanders on FD, since he has been more consistent than Cole Beasley. Still, both have huge upside here at WR2/3 range. I give Beasley more value on DK, where we get the full PPR. Gabriel Davis has become a forgotten man in Buffalo. He has had a total of TWO targets over the last three weeks. That won’t cut it for DFS, even in a likely high-scoring game.

Tyreek Hill was held in check last year during their regular-season contest, but he exploded for 9-172 in the playoff meeting, and 71 of those yards did come on one pass, but that still left him 8-101 the rest of the game. What is concerning is that he failed to score in both of the games. I’m certainly not going to fade Hill here, but don’t be surprised when he doesn’t have another three-TD outing. On this slate, consider him the WR2 overall and a fine WR1 play, just know that he will have huge ownership numbers after last week. Josh Gordon may be active this week, if you believe Andy Reid’s coach-speak. If he is, then he could be used as a WR3 or FLEX. I will still probably pass. If Gordon is inactive, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and Mecole Hardman can be considered as WR3 plays, in what should be a shootout. However, know that they will likely cannibalize each other’s overall numbers.

No team has allowed more receiving yardage to opposing TEs than Kansas City. That isn’t the reason I like Dawson Knox here, though. Knox has evolved into a Darren Fells-type goal line threat. He also is catching a reasonable amount of passes, they just aren’t going for many yards. By sheer volume, I expect Knox to approach 5-50, and another short TD is a lock. This should lock up TE3 for him on this short slate.

Travis Kelce must be locked into your lineup and built around this week. In the two meetings last season, he posted a combined 18-183-4. Buffalo really hasn’t been challenged yet this year by the position, so expect Kelce to explode here.

I dare you to use one of these defenses this week. The best bet either team has is a special teams return TD.

Carson Wentz has received a wrongly deserved injury-prone label. Yes, he has sustained many injuries in his career, but he also played behind a grade school offensive line in Philly. Indy’s line is on a different interplanetary level compared to that of the Eagles. Unfortunately, Wentz has still been subject to a fair amount of pressure, partly thanks to key lineman injuries. It doesn’t help Wentz that he has two bum ankles right now. In fact, you could argue that Wentz has outperformed what his injured body should have allowed him this year. If the line can hold taught here against a Baltimore defense that netted five sacks last week versus Denver, then Wentz should be fine. Still, he will be the QB4 on this stacked slate.

Apparently, the NFL does not want us to use Lamar Jackson in DFS main slate lineups. This is Baltimore’s third primetime game in five weeks. Indy’s pass defense is atrocious. No team has allowed more passing TDs than the Colts. Jackson may get rookie Rashod Bateman active for this game, which should help his passing numbers. Still, you are playing Jackson for his rushing acumen. Only eight players have more rushing yards than Jackson through four weeks. All of them are running backs. Jackson’s rushing numbers have been stunted slightly the last two weeks due to a back injury, but he can break one from anywhere on the field. I have Jackson slightly behind both Sunday night QBs, but he could be a sneaky pivot at less ownership.

Jonathan Taylor finally eclipsed 100 rushing yards and scored last week, despite continuing to split touches with Nyheim Hines and once again Marlon Mack. Mack is the surprising of the two as it was reported that the team would be keeping him inactive in preparation for a trade. Mack’s performance didn’t help his trade value any, and if Taylor appears to be fully healed from his knee issue, I wonder if he will even be active this week. Hines will be active, and his pass-catching skills make him a great FLEX play this week as Baltimore has allowed big yardage to pass-catching backs. Taylor gets the RB1 grade here as Baltimore has been mediocre, at best, against the run and has allowed the second-most running back rushing scores.

I feel bad for anyone that blew their FABB budget on Ty’Son Williams. The Ravens went full Shanahan on the situation listing him as a healthy scratch last week. In Baltimore’s defense, Latavius Murray has been serviceable since signing, scoring in three of four games. Le’Veon Bell didn’t do much in his first action of the season, neither did Devonta Freeman. You can leave them both on your bench. Murray is the RB4 on this slate if Williams is out again, and you can use him at RB2 or FLEX. If Ty’Son plays, it just muddies this situation even more. That would probably take all of them out of play.

I was overexposed to Michael Pittman last week. What I failed to consider was that Miami’s pass defense has some solid individual pieces. Pittman still led all Colts receivers in every category, so it wasn’t like he was awful. Over the last three weeks, only five WRs have more targets than Pittman. Baltimore has stymied every WR1 they have faced this year, so I won’t use him as anything more than a WR3. I almost feel more comfortable using Zach Pascal here, if I need an Indy WR in my lineup. Parris Campbell hasn’t been used enough to reach for here. I like saying Ashton Dulin, I do not like playing Ashton Dulin.

Marquise Brown failed to catch three coulda been TDs in Week 3. He made up for it by catching an absurd, highlight-reel TD in Week 4. In a solid matchup here, I like Brown to score again. I’m just not pumped for his reception volume. Rashod Bateman may get his first start of the season this week. He is coming off of a groin injury, so you need to be concerned about reinjury in his first game back. Nevertheless, Bateman is going to be a target hog and a receiving stud once he gets up to speed. I’ll definitely use him in a couple of lineups at WR3 if he plays. Sammy Watkins has seven or more targets in every game so far. Unfortunately, the calendar has turned to October and Watkins has turned back into a pumpkin. If Bateman is a no-go, Watkins is no better than a FLEX play. If Bateman plays, you can cut Watkins off your season-long rosters. James Proche had a solid Week 4, but prior to that he had four targets for his career. I’m not chasing him here.  I always like Devin Duvernay in Showdown slates, but I’m not reaching for him, especially since Miles Boykin may also return this week and there won’t be enough volume to go around.

I suggested Jack Doyle last week. I had the right team, just the wrong TE. Doyle has had two targets over the last two weeks while Mo Alie-Cox has had seven. Doyle has been dealing with some back discomfort so that may be partially to blame. It shouldn’t matter on this slate, as both would be TE4 at best. Baltimore has allowed the most receptions and the second-most receiving yards and TDs to the position. That said, those numbers are slightly inflated by facing Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant the first four weeks.

Mark Andrews will eventually start losing targets and TD opportunities once Rashod Bateman is fully incorporated into this offense. For now, he has been averaging 5-78 over the last three weeks, putting himself in a position to be the TE2 here.

With Wentz’s foot ailments in play, I have to assign Baltimore the top defense slot here. It isn’t a great play, but none of them are on this slate.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $5.2k for Jacoby Brissett. $9k for Derrick Henry. $8.4k for Dalvin Cook. $5.2k for Antonio Brown. $4.8k for Jaylen Waddle. $4.8k for Laviska Shenault. $4.2k for Mike Gesicki. $5.5k for Damien Harris at FLEX. $2.9k for the Las Vegas Raiders defense.

At FD: $6.3k for Brissett. $10.4k for Henry. $9k for Cook. $5.1k for Allen Lazard. $5.8k for Shenault. $5.4k for Waddle. $6.2k for Dalton Schultz. $6.5k for Harris at FLEX. $5k for the New England Patriot defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen at SF, Samaje Perine, Damien Williams, Ezekiel Elliott at FLEX, Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, Dalton Schultz, and Travis Kelce.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray are the top two highest-priced options. Unfortunately, I will be hard-pressed to roster them at those salaries. Kirk Cousins is slightly cheaper and makes a decent pivot. I like but don’t love Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones. Their prices are better on DK than FD. My favorite play in this price range is Trevor Lawrence. To save money, take a flier on Mac Jones or Jacoby Brissett.

Fantasy Four-pack

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. SF
($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
San Francisco’s defense has been acting as a whipping boy for everyone they have faced. Now they face their toughest matchup in Murray. If Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts can scorch the Niners, then Murray should be safe for 300-3 and another score on the ground.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ CIN
($7,100 DK, $8,000 FD)
Cincinnati allowed 351-2 to Kirk Cousins in Week 1. Since then, they have faced a weak trio of QBs and held them mostly in check. Rodgers is better than all four of the other QBs that the Bengals have faced. Plus, Rodgers rediscovered his favorite weapon from the past in Randall Cobb. If you choose to use Rodgers, you can stack him with Cobb, Davante Adams, or Allen Lazard (my personal choice this week). I would even consider a stack with two of them. The one player I won’t be sticking with Rodgers is Robert Tonyan.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. NYG
($6,900 DK, $8,100 FD) 
Prescott’s yardage numbers have looked lame since Week 1. Still, he has thrown for three or more TDs in three of the four games. Middling QBs, such as Teddy Bridgewater and Taylor Heinicke, have each thrown for two scores against New York, so another three-score finish seems right. Unfortunately, once again, I expect his yardage numbers to be lower as the team should run at will against New York as well.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. DET
($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD)
The Vikings will run the ball a lot in this game, but don’t underestimate what Cousins will achieve through the air. Cousins’ former coach Kevin Stefanski is the only person to slow down the Vikings’ passing game. Detroit doesn’t have that kind of insider information. What the Lions do have is an undermanned secondary and a defense that allowed a total of 625-6 (plus a rushing TD) to Cousins last season. A similar 300-3 will happen here as well, especially if Dalvin Cook is still limited.

DFS Sleepers

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. TEN
($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD)
Lawrence can take it upon himself this week to put Urban Meyer out of the news stream with a strong performance against a bad Tennessee defense. All you truly need to know about Tennessee is that they just allowed Zach Wilson to nearly top 300 yards passing. Lawrence will have his best game as a pro, and I would not be surprised if Jacksonville pulls off the upset. I particularly like stacking Lawrence with Laviska Shenault this week.

Jacoby Brissett, Dolphins @ TB
($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD)
Speaking of mediocre QBs that play in Florida (no I am not referring to Tom Brady), Brissett has looked like a quarterback who deserves to hold a clipboard instead of a football, a role that Brissett got comfortable with behind Brady in New England. Tampa Bay has allowed a league-worst 11 passing TDs and a league second-worst 1,321 passing yards. This included allowing both Matt Ryan and Mac Jones to post startable lines – and now their secondary is even weaker this week.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Derrick Henry is once again the top play. A healthier Dalvin Cook and an actually used Alvin Kamara are solid pivots. I also like both Saquan Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott in their meeting at the JerryDome. Nick Chubb draws a decent matchup against a Los Angeles defense that struggled against the run until this past Monday night. They appeared to be faster to the outsides in that game, so I feel safer using Chubb than Kareem Hunt. James Robinson’s DK price is very nice in what could be a sneaky shootout. I will have heavy exposure to Henry paired with one of Damien Williams, Damien Harris, and Leonard Fournette (if Gio Bernard doesn’t play).  The punt plays that I like this week are Brandon Bolden and Samaje Perine (if Joe Mixon doesn’t play).

Fantasy Four-pack

Derrick Henry, Titans @ JAX
($9,000 DK, $10,400 FD)
Until Christian McCaffrey returns to full health, Henry will remain the certified top dog. It really helps that the schedule makers continue to put creampuffs in front of him. If Tennessee continues to be short-handed in their passing game, expect the force-feeding of Henry to continue. Through four games, he has 30 more carries than the next closest running back.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. DET
($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD) 
Cook appeared mostly healthy last week. He did leave the game briefly but returned to finish it out. Detroit has allowed a league-worst nine total TDs to the RB position. Cook will be good for at least one here as long as he doesn’t aggravate his ankle injury. Perhaps you should consider a hedge lineup where you use Alexander Mattison instead of Cook?

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ WAS
($8,600 DK, $8,600 FD)
Kamara recorded the single-most carries of his career last week. Giving him the carries is a great idea. You know what else is a great idea, throwing him the damn ball. There are zero excuses for Kamara not getting targeted once when your top WRs are Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris. Washington has allowed a league-worst five RB receiving TDs this year. If Kamara isn’t targeted double-digit times this week, Sean Payton should hang ’em up.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. NYG
($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD)
After splitting touches near evenly with Tony Pollard through the first two games, Elliott has now averaged nearly a 2:1 touch ratio in Weeks 3 and 4. The Giants have only given up two RB rushing scores this year, but they are allowing 171 combo yards per game to the position. At a 2:1 ratio, Zeke should easily approach 120 total yards, and I like him to score again.

DFS Sleepers

Damien Harris, Patriots @ HOU
($5,500 DK, $6,500 FD)
James White is injured. Rhamondre Stevenson has been in the doghouse since Week 1. J.J. Taylor just joined him in the doghouse last week. Brandon Bolden is a pass-catching specialist only. This means a huge day for Harris against a defense that is allowing over 150 combo yards per game to the position. I like Bolden to fare well through the air as well, but Harris is a lock for 100-1.

Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers vs. MIA
($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD)
If Giovani Bernard misses a second straight game, Fournette will be locked in as the pass-catching and goal line back for Tampa Bay. In that spot last week, Fournette held a nearly 5:1 advantage on opportunities compared to Ronald Jones. Bernard was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Even if he is healthy enough to suit up on Sunday, he may not have a huge role coming off a knee injury. Opposing RBs are averaging 167 combo yards per game against this defense, and they have given up six total TDs to the position. Fournette will make it seven.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – This week I am spending down at WR. Not because I dislike the high-priced options, but because I love the lower-priced options. When that perfect situation arises, you need to embrace it and spend big elsewhere. Certainly, I love the opportunity to use Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson up top. Deebo Samuel and Adam Thielen are also great expensive options here. That said, my team will likely be made up of three of the following: Ja’Marr Chase, Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, Tyler Boyd, Antonio Brown, Hunter Renfrow, Jaylen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, and Laviska Shenault. You could also go cheaper yet and use one of the Titans’ backups, one of the Giants’ backups, or Allen Lazard, or Randall Cobb.

Fantasy Four-pack

Davante Adams, Packers @ CIN
($8,200 DK, $8,200 FD)
Adams had a down game by his standards last week as Aaron Rodgers rediscovered Randall Cobb. I fully expect Rodgers to right that wrong this time around. Cincinnati has struggled all season with big-bodied WRs that line up all over the field. That is what Adams brings to the game. I also like Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb in this game. If you choose to do a Rodgers stack, consider using two of the WRs.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings vs. DET
($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)
Jefferson has now scored a TD in three straight games. It is easy to envision four in a row when your opponent is the Detroit Lions. The Detroit secondary can not cover Jefferson nor Adam Thielen, let alone both of them. At a price cheaper than the other top QB options, I love the idea of stacking Kirk Cousins with one of his top-two WRs.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers @ ARI
($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD)
Larger outside WRs have scored in every game this season against Arizona. Meanwhile, Samuel has posted the second-most total yards of anyone in the NFL this year. The only thing that could hold back Deebo is if a full week of practice leads Trey Lance to prefer throwing the ball to George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk. Either way, if Lance starts, this makes a nice stack.

DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals vs. SF
($7,600 DK, $7,500 FD)
Hopkins’ numbers appeared down again last week, but he still led the Cardinals in targets and yards despite being less than 100 percent and dealing with Darious Williams. This is now the third week since Hopkins was dinged up, so we can hope he is a full go for this week. That should be frightening to a San Fran defense that is worse than last year when they allowed Hopkins to post a total of 22-199 against them.

DFS Sleepers

Laviska Shenault, Jaguars vs. TEN
($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD)
The Jaguars stack is going to be one of my favorites this week. Shenault was the main benefactor of D.J. Chark’s injury last week. Meanwhile, Tennessee has allowed multiple fantasy-relevant WR performances in three of the first four weeks. This suggests you could even stretch and do a triple stack with Marvin Jones as well.

DeVante Parker, Dolphins @ TB
($5,400 DK, $5,700 FD)
I also will have a lot of exposure to the Dolphins’ stack involving Jacoby Brissett and either Parker or Jaylen Waddle. I do not have as much confidence in this as I do in the Jaguars, so I don’t imagine I’d use both WRs. That said, I could use one of the WRs and Mike Gesicki. Tampa has allowed the most receptions, second-most yards, and third-most receiving TDs to opposing WRs. Meanwhile, Parker was the top producer last week for Miami after Will Fuller left with an injury.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – I am shocked by how inexpensive George Kittle is this week. I expect to make a few lineups with him in it, but I also like T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. That said, my most owned TEs this week will be Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki. Other options this week include both Patriots, Cameron Brate (if Rob Gronkowski doesn’t play), and Tyler Conklin. There are not many punt plays I like here. I might use C.J. Uzomah or Dan Arnold.

Fantasy Four-pack

George Kittle, 49ers @ ARI
($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD)
Kittle’s price tag is way too low here. I would be more excited if he wasn’t nursing a calf injury, but he played through it last week. Ross Dwelley vultured a TD, and Jamal Adams broke up another potential TD, making Kittle’s Week 4 line look worse than it was. Still, he has averaged 10 targets per game over the last two weeks. Arizona has been stingy against the position this season, but they also have not faced a true threat yet.

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. CHI
($7,300 DK, $7,400 FD)
Chicago has been pretty good at stifling opposing TEs through the first four weeks. They actually have faced some solid options, too. Still, Waller is better than any of the guys they have slowed down. Waller leads all TEs in targets and receptions, and he ranks second in receiving yards. This feels like it may be a floor game for Waller, but that would still be 6-60-1.

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys vs. NYG
($4,400 DK, $6,200 FD)
Schultz has been valuable in three of four weeks, not to mention he has been a verifiable stud the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed the most TE touchdowns. With Amari Cooper clearly not 100 percent and acting the decoy role, Schultz has joined CeeDee Lamb as the possession option for Dallas. I expect Schultz to post 6-60-1 this week, which will be on par with the top options at a lower price point.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions @ MIN ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD)
Hockenson’s final stat lines have been uninspiring the last two weeks. Fortunately, last week was the third time this year that he finished with eight or more targets. Minnesota has ignored the TE position for what seems like five straight years, including allowing Hockenson to score in one of their two meetings last year. Hockenson did pop up on the injured list on Wednesday with a knee issue and was limited Thursday. He didn’t show any signs of this affecting him in Week 4, so hopefully this isn’t a new injury sustained in practice. Assuming he takes the field, I expect him to lead Detroit in every relevant receiving category this week.

DFS Sleepers

Cameron Brate, Buccaneers vs. MIA
($3,300 DK, $5,000 FD)
Brate’s stat line last week didn’t look great. That said, I watched the game and the eye test suggested that Tom Brady targeted him more than the six times that were credited to him. The rain caused several of Tom’s passes to go errant, and I would not be surprised if some of the passes listed as targets for someone else were actually originally aimed at Brate. The nice thing about Brate is at that DK salary all he needs is to catch a single TD to reach 3x value. Miami allowed Mo Alie-Cox to haul in two of his three catches for TDs last week, so a Brate TD is certainly possible.

C.J. Uzomah, Bengals vs. GB
($3,000 DK, $5,500 FD)
This may seem like stat-chasing, and it is. You would chase stats, too, in this matchup. Green Bay has been dominated by stud TEs this year and even allowed Juwan Johnson to score twice in Week 1. They fared better in Week 4 versus Pittsburgh, but you can blame that on the return of Diontae Johnson and Ben Roethlisberger’s noodle arm. C.J. Uzomah did little the first three weeks, but he absolutely blew up last week. Lest we forget he missed most of last season with an injury after being fantasy-relevant for most of 2018 and 2019. The potential return of Tee Higgins this week could hurt Uzomah’s target share, but if Higgins is not out there, expect another big game from the tight end.