Tag: DFS Week 14 sleepers

With redraft playoffs in sight, this week marks the final week of byes for the NFL. Of course, they saved one of the worst byes for when it mattered most as Jonathan Taylor will not be leading his owners this week.

For those teams that are toilet bowl bound or that have felt the drop of the guillotine, the hope of regular-season glory might be out the door already. Fortunately, DFS continues well into the fantasy playoffs and even the NFL playoffs as we always give you the best plays up until conference championship games.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Justin Fields is starting a divisional rivalry matchup with the Green Bay Packers in primetime in December (although early reports are that the weather will be better Sunday than the rest of the week). This is what none of us needed. If there wasn’t a long-standing history between these two franchises, this game would’ve probably been flexed. In a slate with three top-10 fantasy QBs, seeing Fields as the fourth option leaves me humming the old Sesame Street “one of these things is not like the others” ditty. I’m surprised that Chicago wants to throw the youngster into the fire coming off of an injury to his ribs. I know from personal experience that rib injuries feel worse in the cold.

We have two strong QBs on MNF, but they also both have very good defenses. This is why even if the weather is bad here, I have to choose Aaron Rodgers as the QB1.

David Montgomery (groin, glute, shoulder) came back from his injury and immediately returned to bell-cow status. He remains the most physically-gifted member of the Bears offense. He is also the safest RB on the board here. I like him as my RB1. Khalil Herbert has shrunk back into the woodwork, but he has the talent to succeed if Monty’s current bevy of injuries proven costly. You can throw him into a Showdown lineup as an injury-pivot, just don’t expect anything substantial without that injury absence.

Aaron Jones should be back healthy for this game after getting a one-week rest. If A.J. Dillon wasn’t also on this roster, I would make him the clear RB2 on this slate. Unfortunately, these two will likely split touches and that could shrink each of their values. This week there are questions to every backfield except Chicago, so Jones will still be no worse than RB3 on the board. Dillon can be used as a FLEX at RB5/6.

Darnell Mooney is the only Chicago receiver you should seriously concern yourself with. He is the WR4/5 on the slate and deserves consideration at WR2 or WR3 if you spend up at the position. Marquise Goodwin suffered a pair of injuries and ended up missing most of the last two weeks. In his absence, Jakeem Grant has stepped up as a solid WR2 for Chicago, but he and Goodwin (if he plays) are no better than punt options here. Damiere Byrd has also seen a bump in usage, but he would be the low-man on my Chicago punt WR list. Oh, yeah, I didn’t forget about Allen Robinson. I just wish I could. I have to believe that most of the Chicago faithful feel the same.

Davante Adams deserves the WR1 spot on this board. He will of course have to fend off Cooper Kupp, but Adams’ matchup is definitely the better of the two. Allen Lazard returned in Week 12 and finished third on the team in WR targets. If he can avoid catching the ‘VID, he should catch a few passes here. He is a very safe WR3 option if you want exposure to this game at a cheaper price. The same can be said for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS actually has more targets than Adams over the last two games. He has both a higher ceiling and a lower floor than Lazard. Randall Cobb (core) is out indefinitely, which could open a few targets for the not-named-Adams receivers.

Chicago with Andy Dalton under center has provided a boost in value to both the veteran, Jimmy Graham, and the youngster, Cole Kmet. Both would’ve been TD threats if Dalton started. Since Fields gets the start, Kmet falls to TE3 and Graham can be ignored.

Can you name Green Bay’s starting TE(s)? It technically falls to either Josiah Deguara or Marcedes Lewis. Neither should be in your tourney lineup. Lewis can perhaps be used in Showdown contests but, even then, that would be a desperation reach.

Green Bay’s defense isn’t very good, but they face the easiest QB on the slate. I imagine their ownership percentage will be huge. I’ll probably diversify between the two teams on MNF instead. As for Chicago, the only way I would play them is if the winds are stronger than 40 mph with horizontal snow coming down.

Monday night, two great offenses hook up against two great defenses. In their earlier meeting, they still managed to score 57 combined points. Matthew Stafford finished that game with 280-2. Of course, Stafford has also struggled over the last month or so. I’ll rate him at QB3 on this board, but his absolute ceiling is probably 300-3 and this feels like a 275-2 type of game.

Kyler Murray returned from injury last week and had a big game. I didn’t expect him to blow up in his first game back, but he did. The Cardinals ran all over the Los Angeles Rams in their earlier contest. That was pre-Von Miller. His presence will put a slight dent in Murray’s rushing output, but I still feel that Kyler finishes at QB2 here.

Darrell Henderson was active last week. Unfortunately, he had the same number of touches as I did. Obviously, his was just an emergency activation. The fact that he was active at least suggests that he should play this week. Still, we should be concerned about his potential volume. I’d have less concern if Sony Michel didn’t show out last week. We need to remember, however, Michel’s performance came against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. I’ll put Henderson at RB4 and Michel at RB7 this week (unless Henderson has a setback).

Early reports suggest that Chase Edmonds will return this week. That is too bad, because James Conner was having a career resurgence. Conner will remain the TD threat (despite Murray’s presence). Edmonds blew up against Los Angeles earlier this year. Still, I cannot imagine him getting even a half share in his first game back. Conner will be my RB3 and Edmonds will be no higher than RB5 here, but either could be used at FLEX.

Cooper Kupp continues to wreak havoc on the league. Only once this season has he failed to top 90 receiving yards and/or score. Of course, that game was the one against Arizona. I slightly prefer Davante Adams’ matchup this week, but Kupp needs to be in WR1 consideration. I also see no reason to not use both of them. Odell Beckham has now scored in back-to-back games. I think he could make it three in a row here as he continues to, literally, demand targets. If you want access to this game but don’t think you can afford Kupp, use OBJ. Van Jefferson has also done well since Robert Woods’s injury. He has six or more targets in each of his last six games. In their earlier meeting, Jefferson had a big game playing third-wheel. He still has that role, so I like him as a WR3 or FLEX play. Ben Skowronek has a great name, but he is not a great play. Leave him for Showdown slates, at best.

DeAndre Hopkins returned last week and caught a TD, then didn’t do much else. It is good to see him return, but I’d like to see more action for him. His numbers may have been higher if the Cardinals needed to throw more last week. I still see him as the WR3/4 here. I just don’t think I feel comfortable paying this much for him knowing that he will have to deal with Jalen Ramsey. He finished Week 4 with only a pedestrian 4-67-0. In that game, A.J. Green tied Nuk for the most receiving yards and he scored a TD. Coming off a no-show game last week, Green should be cheap and have low ownership. He makes a sneaky good WR3 play. Christian Kirk has noticed his numbers drop off of late. In a better game, I might consider him. I’ll leave him to Showdown slates only. The same goes for Rondale Moore.

Tyler Higbee will be no better than my TE2 here, and I expect him to finish as TE3. He has received steady targets since Woods’ injury, but he hasn’t done much with them. This means that he has become somewhat TD-dependent. This isn’t good when the team you are facing has allowed the second-fewest TE scores.

Zach Ertz is your top TE choice this week. The Rams are just so-so against the position and Maxx Williams toasted them in their earlier matchup. Plus, Ertz has fared well of late, with the obvious exception being last week. Let’s hope that Hopkins’ return doesn’t continue to hinder Ertz’s production.

These two defenses are solid. I lean slightly towards the Rams. Either would be a good choice since everyone else will be using the Packers.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.7k for Dak Prescott. $6k for Saquan Barkley. $5.9k for Javonte Williams. $8.1k for Stefon Diggs. $7.2k for CeeDee Lamb. $3.6k for Curtis Samuel. $3.5K for Evan Engram. $5.9k for Chuba Hubbard at FLEX. $3.1k for the Seattle Seahawks defense.

At FD: $8.1k for Prescott. $7.3k for Barkley. $7.1k for Josh Jacobs. $7.8k for Lamb. $8.2k for Diggs. $4.8k for Samuel. $5.7k for Dalton Schultz. $6.7k for Javonte at FLEX. $4.3k for the Los Angeles Chargers defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Patrick Mahomes, Prescott at SF, Jacobs, and Javonte, David Montgomery at FLEX, Lamb, Jarvis Landry, Travis Kelce, and Brevin Jordan.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – The board is ugly this week. You have to pay up for Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Dak Prescott. There is a whole bunch of chaff in the middle. None of it screams, “Play me.” You can take a flier on Baker Mayfield or maybe Trevor Lawrence. It wouldn’t be my choice to do so, but beggars can’t be choosers.

Fantasy Four-pack

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. LV
($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
The Las Vegas Raiders have watched their defense take a long walk off of a short pier recently. Cue up a rematch against Mahomes, who threw for 406-5 just a couple of weeks ago. It was Mahomes’ only decent start since Week 6, so take it with a grain of salt. Still, St. Patrick is one of the only sure things this week.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ WAS
($6,700 DK, $8,100 FD)
Locking Dak in against one of the worst pass defenses in football should be the easiest decision of the week. Every quality QB to face them (and many lower-quality options) has dusted this pansy defense. Considering the price difference, I actually feel better about Prescott hitting 3x than even Mahomes. Feel free to stack him with any of his starting WRs or Dalton Schultz.

Josh Allen, Bills @ TB
($7,800 DK, $8,800 FD) 
Tampa has allowed the seventh-most passing TDs. Meanwhile, Allen has multiple TDs in all but three games. I don’t love the FD price, but this game could be higher-scoring.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ CLE
($7,400 DK, $7,900 FD)
This isn’t the best matchup on paper, but Jackson has the physical tools to exploit even tough situations. Jackson had twelve TDs against Cleveland during 2019 and 2020, but he posted only one score back in Week 12 of this season. If he can throw for 200-1 and add 75-1 on the ground, I will be happy.

DFS Sleepers

Baker Mayfield, Browns vs. BAL
($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD)
Baker is back at home for a Week 12 rematch with Baltimore. His previous game line was pedestrian, but he was also dealing with roughly 183 injuries and a few bumps and bruises, too. He got a bye week to recover, Baltimore got into a dogfight against Pittsburgh, where they suffered many crucial injuries. One of which was to key CB Marlon Humphrey. I’m probably going to spend up this week at QB, but if I must slum it up, this is a safer risk than most.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars @ TEN
($5,100 DK, $6,300 FD)
Trevor threw for 332-3 back in Week 1. Since then he has thrown for over 300 yards only once, and he has only six total passing TDs. Still, this is a battle of two rotten defenses facing two injury-decimated offenses. So, we could see some sneaky points scored here. Lawrence posted one of his better games of the season against Tennessee back in Week 5. It was 273-1  through the air, and he added 28 rushing yards and a score on the ground. A repeat of that performance would be much appreciated on this ugly slate.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – There are some injury concerns at the top of the RB price spectrum this week. Assuming Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara are good to go, they are the best plays of the week. Ekeler could see ridiculous volume with both of the Chargers’ starting WRs dealing with COVID. Leonard Fournette is the only high-priced pivot as throwing against Buffalo usually doesn’t work. I will have one of these three in many lineups. This week may be the one to go with some middle-tier RBs. Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson, Saquan Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, and Javonte Williams all could be your RB1 and RB2. Considering how thin the bottom tier is this week, you will need to roster at least one of them. Your dart throws include choosing which Titan will lead the way, which Seahawk will lead the way, or hoping that Eli Mitchell and/or D’Andre Swift is out so you can go for cheap volume with their backups. Generally speaking, though, this just seems like the week to not go dumpster diving here.

Fantasy Four-pack

Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. NYG
($8,300 DK, $9,200 FD)
As I mentioned above, Ekeler may be the top WR option for Los Angeles this week. Both, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are in the COVID protocol right now. These absences hurt Justin Herbert’s value slightly, but it should severely boost Ekeler’s value. He has scored in all but three games and will score here as well, but the reason to play him this week is the 12- to 15-catch ceiling he is looking at.

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ NYJ
($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD) 
Kamara returns from his injury as his backup, Mark Ingram, finds himself headed to the COVID list. I’m always concerned about a player’s workload returning from an injury, but you and I could each run for nearly 100 yards behind any professional offensive line against this defense. I’d also normally be concerned about Taysom Hill vulturing his touchdown opportunities, but both of them could score multiple times this week, and Hill won’t vulture any of Kamara’s receptions.

Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers vs. BUF
($7,400 DK, $7,600 FD)
Throwing against Buffalo is a fool’s game. Much like running against Tampa Bay. Tom Brady will likely struggle by his lofty standards this week. So, don’t be surprised if the Bucs lean heavily on Fournette once again. Buffalo just got trampled by the Patriots on Monday night, despite knowing that they were going to run on every down. I seriously have no idea how they will hold Fournette in check with the looming presence of Brady finding someone open in the back of their minds.

Joe Mixon, Bengals vs. SF
($7,700 DK, $8,500 FD)
Mixon has 13 TDs over his last nine games. This includes scoring at least one in every single one of those games. Meanwhile, only four teams have allowed more total RB scores than San Fran. I’d feel much more comfortable here if Mixon was feeling better. He did have a non-COVID illness this week and he tweaked his neck last Sunday. If his bill of health is fully cleared on Sunday he might be able to reach 3x value.

DFS Sleepers

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. ATL
($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD)
Carolina actually fired Joe Brady because he wouldn’t run the ball more. OK, let’s see what happens for Hubbard here. Chuba isn’t Christian McCaffrey, but he can be a reasonable dollar-store knockoff. It helps his cause that Atlanta has been futile against the run this year. Only twice have they not allowed at least one double-digit PPR performance this season. In those two games, they faced true “split” backfields, where they combined for a huge performance.

Javonte Williams, Broncos vs. DEN
($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD)
Speaking of split backfields, no team has seen a more even split of things than Denver. Plus, both Williams and Melvin Gordon have each looked great when they have been given the opportunity. Detroit trails only the New York Jets in terms of TDs allowed to the position. So, once again, they both could post absurdly good numbers this week. That said, Williams did his best Derrick Henry impersonation last week, so I don’t see how Denver doesn’t give him the advantage in touches this time around. One argument for playing Gordon is that Williams will have high ownership after last week’s line. Realistically, both could approach 100-1 this week.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – This is a weird week for expensive WRs. Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and CeeDee Lamb should all blow up. I’d love to have one of them at WR1. That said, I am already spending a lot at QB, so I may have to spend down here. Lamb is my favorite of that threesome. The best money-saving pivots are Keenan Allen (if he plays), DK Metcalf, and DJ Moore. Unfortunately, all three of them have a slight concern holding me back from using them. Mike Williams could also be in play if he clears the COVID protocol. WR2 will likely come from Amari Cooper (if I don’t use Lamb), Jerry Jeudy, or Jarvis Landry. WR3 offers a larger pool of values. I like all of the starters for New Orleans and Jacksonville. I also am high on Donovan Peoples-Jones, Curtis Samuel, Gabriel Davis, and Jalen Guyton. Not exactly a murderer’s row, but all capable of excelling this week.

Fantasy Four-pack

Stefon Diggs, Bills @ TB
($8,100 DK, $8,200 FD)
The windstorm neutered Diggs’ output last week. That won’t be an issue at Tampa. The Bucs have really struggled with WR coverage this year (mainly due to the fact that you cannot run against them). Diggs has six scores over his last seven games. I don’t see any chance of Tampa holding him out of the end zone here and 7-75-1 feels like his receiving floor.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. LV
($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD)
Over the last four weeks, Vegas has allowed the third-most receptions and the fourth-most receiving TDs to the WR position. Tyreek went for two scores against the Raiders earlier this year. Last season, he scored once in each of their two games. Throwing the big-money Chiefs stack of Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce together will leave you cash-poor elsewhere, but it should still pay off well.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys @ WAS
($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD)
Washington struggles against opponent’s top WRs, WR2s, slot WRs, random WRs signed off of the street, offensive linemen that report eligible at WR, etc. What I’m implying is that any WR active for Dallas will perform like a stud this week. Lamb has surpassed Amari Cooper as the lead dog here, so I have the highest degree of faith in him.

DJ Moore, Panthers vs. ATL
($6,200 DK, $6,800 FD)
Moore struggled in the Week 8 meeting between these two teams. That, of course, was with Sam Darnold being chased all over the field by ghosts. Cam Newton hasn’t exactly wowed since taking over, but at least he isn’t worse than Darnold. Moore should see an uptick in receptions with Christian McCaffrey out once again, now it is just a matter of Cam and DJ getting on the same page. Another week of practice between them certainly won’t hurt. On Atlanta’s behalf, no team has allowed more receptions to the WR position over the last four weeks.

DFS Sleepers

Jarvis Landry, Browns vs. BAL
($5,400 DK, $6,400 FD)
Landry had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Baltimore. That was before Baltimore lost their top CB for the season. In that game, Landry had more targets than the entire rest of the Cleveland WR room combined. It wasn’t the first time that Jarvis went off versus the Ravens. Since joining Cleveland, Landry has faced Baltimore seven times averaging 6-91 per game.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. DET
($5,600 DK, $6,300 FD)
While I will have massive exposure to the running attack of Denver, I will also have some exposure to this passing attack. Since returning from injury, Jeudy has paced the Broncos in every passing category except TDs. I like his chances of scoring here against a feeble Detroit defense that was just embarrassed by Justin Jefferson last week.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Travis Kelce is a great play this week despite the price. I also like George Kittle (as long as Deebo Samuel remains out) and Mark Andrews. After that, Dalton Schultz and Noah Fant are the other higher-priced options in play. Still, it will be hard to fade Evan Engram (at his price), Jared Cook (if all the WRs are out), or Ricky Seals-Jones (if he returns from his injury). Brevin Jordan, one of the Saints, and James O’Shaughnessy are my only true punt options here.

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. LV
($7,400 DK, $7,500 FD)
Vegas isn’t the worst team in the league versus TEs. Still, they are among the bottom four in every significant category against the position. Meanwhile, Kelce remains the gold standard at the position despite a sub-standard season. The typical Kelce season is so absurdly strong that this pretty damn impressive season is called out as just ‘aight. This feels like a week where Kelce reminds his detractors why he is the best there is, the best there was, and the best there ever will be.

George Kittle, Niners @ CIN
($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD)
Kittle had a monster Week 13 with Deebo Samuel out injured. As of now, we don’t know for certain if Samuel will play this weekend. If Deebo misses another game, don’t be surprised to see Kittle have a repeat performance. Cincy is not exactly a stiff defense against the position. They can hold mediocre or bad TEs in check, but they have been victimized by higher-end options like T.J. Hockenson, Pat Freiermuth, and Darren Waller. Kittle will be good for 7-70-1 if Samuel plays. If Deebo is out, expect closer to 11-120-1 or 2.

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ CLE
($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD)
Cleveland has apparently stopped covering opposing TEs. Since Week 8, the Browns have allowed an average of 6-62-0.8 to the position. That included a 4-65-1 by Andrews in Week 12. Including that game, Andrews now has posted 24-325-6 against Cleveland since the start of 2019.

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys @ WAS
($5,400 DK, $5,700 FD)
Washington is better against tight ends than wide receivers. That really isn’t saying much. Still, this game will feature enough scoring that Schultz has a great opportunity to give you access to this game script without breaking the bank. I particularly like the triple-stack with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.

DFS Sleepers

Evan Engram, Giants @ LAC
($3,600 DK, $4,500 FD)
With Phail-ly on bye, Las Vegas and the Chargers are the two easiest TE defenses to pick on. Vegas gets Kelce, so you know they are about to get stomped. The Chargers get Engram, which will fly considerably lower under the radar. The Eagles are the only team to allow more TE scores this year than the Chargers. Plus five of those scores have come in the last four weeks.

Jared Cook, Chargers vs. NYG
($3,200 DK, $5,100 FD)
Justin Herbert will approach his huddle Sunday and see Cook, Donald Parham, and a bunch of reserve WRs. It should be pretty obvious who will pick up much of the slack assuming that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams remain out with COVID. The Giants have already allowed nine different TEs to top 8 PPR points, and if Cook does that he is nearly at 3x on DK already. When you add on some additional targets his way, it seems inevitable.