Tag: DFS Week 11 sleepers

After having multiple chalky (and successful) RB gifts fall into our laps last week due to injury and COVID, this week we have a few returning RBs to murky the waters. Is it wrong of me to hope for more injuries or continued injuries to potentially returning, middling vets (yes, I am referring to you, CEH)? If not, then I guess it is back to paying up for running backs and bargain hunting elsewhere. Oh well, at least we get the gift of A.J. Dillon, wait, what do you mean he is fully priced? – Curses, foiled again! Help me, Jeff Wilson Jr. … you are my only hope.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Ben Roethlisberger started Week 11 in the COVID protocol. As a vaccinated player, he still needs to be symptom-free and report two consecutive negative tests to play this week. If he clears the protocol, Mike Tomlin has already declared that he will start regardless of whether or not he gets in any practices. That is a pretty strong vote of confidence in a veteran who hasn’t really done much this season. Against a very good Los Angeles defense, I am not going to be in a hurry to start him. Of course, I am going to be even less excited to start Mason Rudolph.

I am also not jumping out of my skin to start a QB against the Steelers’ secondary. Both matchups on MNF are sexier than this one for Justin Herbert. Still, Herbert’s name alone has some swag compared to MNF starter Daniel Jones. I prefer Justin to Rudolph or Roethlisberger on this slate, but he is probably going to battle to best Jones’ production at a much higher price tag. I just don’t see the value here.

Najee Harris against one of the worst run defenses in football should be a mortal lock play. It helps that he has zero competition for carries.

Austin Ekeler is going to be harder to rank this week. Yes, he is very good, but he is going against an elite run defense. He has had a couple of strong finishes against upper-echelon run defenses already this year. Unfortunately, he also has back-to-back ho-hum games against bad run defenses. No team has allowed fewer total RB scores this season, so I cannot go any higher than RB3 on this board. His price won’t be given an appropriate discount, so I will likely fade him. Joshua Kelley has fallen behind Larry Rountree on the depth chart, but neither is worth using in a bad matchup.

Diontae Johnson remains the primary target for Pittsburgh, regardless of who is under center. Unfortunately, only four WR1s have reached double-digit PPR points against this defense, and three of them “split” WR1 duties on their respective teams. DeVonta Smith is the only “one-man show” to get it done against them. What this implies, is that Johnson could struggle if Chase Claypool is not active and the defense can truly dog Johnson. Still, Johnson’s volume of targets will always keep him in play at WR1. Speaking of Claypool, he hurt his toe in Week 9 and he remains questionable for this week. If he plays, he may have his snaps limited. That said, I truly believe his being on the field will help Johnson’s production. With the risk of reinjury, I will likely fade Claypool here. Ray-Ray McCloud was a target beast last week with Rudolph under center and Claypool out. In truth, he ranks behind James Washington in the Pittsburgh WR room. I believe that his output was more due to Rudolph’s familiarity with him from practice. Assuming Big Ben and Claypool both return, I would rather use Washington at WR3 than McCloud. If Rudolph starts, McCloud would be the preferred WR3 play regardless of Claypool’s status. Just know whoever starts at QB, we are likely looking at a ceiling of two passing TDs (one of which may end up in the lap of the TE).

Mike Williams has disappeared over the last month. Earlier this season, I opined about not having any shares of him in dynasty leagues. Perhaps, that was for the best. Only two bigger-bodied alpha WRs have had huge games against this defense. Possession and slot receivers have had slightly more success against Pittsburgh. This is why, if I choose one of the Chargers’ WRs, it will be Keenan Allen. He still will be no better than WR3 overall on the docket. That said, he is the safest WR play in this game for either side. Against a weaker defense, I could see punting with Jaylen Guyton or Josh Palmer. This matchup isn’t very inviting, though, so save them for Showdown contests with Palmer getting the slight edge there.

Pat Freiermuth fumbled away a Pittsburgh victory last week. That won’t keep me from using him here (especially if Chase Claypool remains out). Freiermuth’s usage of late, paired with the juicy matchup, makes him the clear TE1 on this slate, even if Rob Gronkowski returns.

Jared Cook is no stronger than TE4 on this slate. His usage has been sporadic, and Pittsburgh has been considerably above average against the position. Plus, he has to split looks with Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson. Anderson is a depth piece, at best right now and can be ignored in all formats, but Parham is literally a huge red-zone threat. I’d almost consider starting him over Cook if I am TD mining at cost savings. In Showdown slates, Parham is always a must-start.

Two very good defenses facing off. The Chargers offense is a larger threat right now, especially if Ben Roethlisberger is out. I could see using either of them, but LA definitely gets the edge if Mason Rudolph starts.

On Monday, Daniel Jones gets to face off against a Tampa Bay secondary that was much-maligned to start the year due to injuries. A series of face-offs against so-so QBs have improved their lot in life significantly recently as they have given up only three total TDs to opposing QBs over the last four games. Tampa still remains shorthanded in the defensive backfield, so Jones could produce a medium-ish line. The big advantage that he has over some of the other also-ran QBs that Tampa has faced recently is that he has wheels. I’ll rank Jones as a QB2 or QB3 this week in a tight battle with Herbert for that rank.

Tampa Bay has had a rough go of things recently, but that really hasn’t hindered Tom Brady’s final line. Even in his second-worst start of the year last week, Brady finished with 220-2. A healthy returning Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski would certainly help him, but neither is guaranteed this week. Still, Brady is the consensus QB1 on the slate, and he will be in most of my lineups.

Tampa Bay has the second-stingiest run defense in the league, so starting a running back against them is never recommended. The only exceptions are if you have a true stud that you are never benching, or if you have pass-catching backs. They are really the only RBs to produce solid lines against them this year. Saquan Barkley is scheduled to return to the active roster this week. He won’t do much on the ground this week (especially if Devontae Booker gets some change-of-pace work) but Barkley is valuable enough in the passing game to jockey with Ekeler for the RB3 slot on the board. Booker can be avoided completely unless you want to take a deep flier that Barkley re-injures himself.

Leonard Fournette is my RB2 on this slate and in most of my lineups. The Giants have struggled against the position all season, and Lenny has established himself as the clear top back for Tampa. His usage in the passing game has been his biggest boon, and it has been fed by the absence of Rob Gronkowski. Earlier this season, Giovani Bernard had that role, but not anymore. He can be ignored now. The same goes for Ronald Jones as he would need a Fournette injury to have value.

This game features two WR rooms that are jam-packed with injuries. Kenny Golladay returned in Week 9 but did nothing. Tampa is bad enough against the pass to consider him as a WR2 or WR3 here. After a huge breakout earlier this year, Kadarius Toney has pulled a Travis Fulgham. Unlike Fulgham, Toney actually has talent. I love him to go ham here if Sterling Shepard doesn’t return. Even if Shepard plays, Toney needs to be in WR3/FLEX consideration. I actually like him better than Golladay. Coming off of the bye, I would’ve hoped that Shepard was ready to go, but he missed practice to start the week. This means that he is probably not going to be a go this week. If he plays, he deserves WR2/3 consideration. That said, the reinjury likelihood is almost too high for him. John Ross is always in play for Showdown contests, but with Toney and Golladay healthy, he just won’t see enough snaps to be tournament-worthy. The same goes for Collin Johnson.

Chris Godwin played last week despite an injury scare. He even led the WR room in targets and receptions. Against New York, both Godwin and Mike Evans deserve WR1 consideration. One (if not both) must be in your lineups, especially if Antonio Brown does not return here. Even if Brown takes the field, I love both Godwin and Evans to approach 6-75-1 with Evans the more likely to score and Godwin the more likely to lead in receptions. Brown’s return wouldn’t kill their value as he might actually open up more of the field for them. If AB plays, I see him more as a WR3 this week since his snap count will likely be limited. If Brown doesn’t play, Tyler Johnson will get another chance to showcase his wares in the starting lineup. He has averaged 5.5 targets over the last two games and at his price point, he becomes a must-start at WR3 or FLEX. Be wary, though, if Brown or Scotty Miller return this week. Miller has been battling turf toe all season, but he began practicing last week and is eligible to return off IR. I won’t use him in his first game back, but he could harm Johnson’s potential output by stealing snaps.

Evan Engram is the best TE that no one ever feels comfortable playing. He has scored in back-to-back contests but has only registered three receptions in both games. If Sterling Shepard misses this one, you can use him as the TE3 on the slate and maybe the TE2 if Rob Gronkowski doesn’t play, otherwise, I would only use him as a cost-savings play. Kyle Rudolph has also seen a bump in usage due to all of the injuries, but as the others have gotten healthy he becomes a less-athletic version of Parham … truly TD-dependent.

A returning Rob Gronkowski would be the clear TE2 on the board and perhaps even TE1. We just don’t have any reason to feel certain that he will return. That leaves Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard to once again share the routes. The two have truly split the workload since Gronk’s injury. I don’t love either of them, but if I had to choose it would be Brate.

Tampa’s defense has been shorthanded in the secondary, but Daniel Jones is mistake-prone enough to make them a decent choice this week. There is no way that I even consider the Giants here.

[lawrence-related id=462231]

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.6k for Patrick Mahomes. $6.2k for AJ Dillon. $5.1k for Jeff Wilson. $8.4k for Davante Adams. $4.2k for Michael Gallup. $3.1k for Danny Amendola. $7.1K for Travis Kelce. $5.5k for David Montgomery at FLEX. $2.7k for the Carolina Panthers defense.

At FD: $8.3k for Mahomes. $9k for Nick Chubb. $6.6k for Michael Carter. $8.4k for Adams. $6.6k for Brandin Cooks. $5.1k for Albert Wilson. $7.3k for Kelce. $5k for J. Wilson at FLEX. $3.6k for the Cincinnati Bengals defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Cam Newton, Mahomes at SF, Dillon, and Chubb, Najee Harris at FLEX, Adams, Cooks, and Robby Anderson, and Pat Freiermuth.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Obviously, I like Dak Prescott versus Patrick Mahomes. Both should easily return 3x value in the presumed shootout. I also like both QBs in the NFC North matchup between GB and MIN. Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr also have some appeal. So, as you can see, most of the higher-priced options are in play this week. The big issue I have this week is that there are very few options to punt with. Cam Newton has some pretty clear value, but he will be severely over-owned. If I do choose to go cheap, I may use Tyrod Taylor.

Fantasy Four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills vs. IND
($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD)
No team has allowed more passing scores than Indy. Meanwhile, Allen had a get-right game last week against the Jets. The Colts are more likely to keep this game competitive. So, Allen doesn’t have to worry about playing himself to an early exit with a strong showing.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. DAL
($7,600 DK, $8,300 FD)
Anytime you can get Mahomes for under $8k, it is a great chance to use him. Coming off of his own get-right game is just icing on the cake. Dallas’ pass defense has appeared to improve as the season has progressed, but in truth, their competition has gotten worse. Kirk Cousins is the only quality QB they have faced since Week 2, and the entire Vikings offense took that week off. I like both teams to score big here, so give me as much action in this game as possible.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ MIN
($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD) 
Minnesota will get back a few of their injured secondary pieces this week. Unfortunately, they are still shorthanded up front, which should provide Rodgers all the time he needs to pick apart the returning corners and safeties. Davante Adams has made the Vikings his whipping boy in recent meetings. Stack away happily.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ KC
($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD)
I prefer Mahomes in this game, but Dak will be forced to throw the ball frequently to keep up with the Chiefs. The return of Michael Gallup improves Prescott’s output as it gives him another reliable target. At his price, he also makes my favorite stack with Dak. Prescott will finish the game with three scores, one of which may come on the ground. The only way he fails this week is if his receivers keep getting tackled inside the 5-yard line, leading to Ezekiel Elliott scores.

DFS Sleepers

Cam Newton, Panthers vs. WAS
($5,100 DK, $7,500 FD)
Washington is miserably bad against the pass. Only one team has allowed more passing scores this season. If you include rushing TDs allowed to opposing QBs, no team has allowed more total scores to the position. We haven’t seen enough yet to determine if Newton’s arm is any better than the noodle it appeared to be last season, but he is always a huge threat to score a rushing TD. Plus, with an RB like Christian McCaffrey and a speedy YAC receiver like D.J. Moore, you don’t have to throw the ball very far down the field.

Tyrod Taylor, Texans @ TEN
($5,000 DK, $6,600 FD)
Over the last four weeks, Tennessee has allowed the most passing completions and the third-most passing yards to opposing QBs. Those numbers seem unfathomable when you consider they include a complete bomb by Mahomes. Taylor did next to nothing in his return to the field last week. That said, he was clearly rusty, and Miami blitzed on nearly every play. It won’t take much for him to reach 3x on DK. In a slate with few true punt options. He may be the smartest one of all as his ownership should be way down after last week.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Christian McCaffrey are the three best choices among the high-priced RBs. If Alvin Kamara returns, he could reach value since the competition is weak against pass-catching backs. One of these four will be my probable RB1. I may also pivot to D’Andre Swift if Jamaal Williams is ruled out. There are five options I like at RB2. AJ Dillon, James Conner, Michael Carter, David Montgomery, and Myles Gaskin all make a strong group to choose from. I could also use two of them if I wish to save money for WRs. Any of them could also be my FLEX. The punt options at RB this week are almost as bad as the punt options at QB. If Eli Mitchell misses this game due to his finger injury, Jeff Wilson becomes a must-start. I could also see using one of the Titans, or Ty Johnson. Neither excites me, but if you need to save money, you need to save money. We don’t have the gimmes that we were gifted last week.

Fantasy Four-pack

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. GB
($8,200 DK, $8,400 FD)
Over the last two seasons, Cook has faced the Packers three times. These are his lines: 191 total yards and a TD, 48 total yards and two touchdowns, and 226 total yards with four touchdowns. Obviously, we would have liked to have seen more yardage in that middle game, but the pair of scores made up for the down day yardage-wise. If the Vikes want to win this game, they should lean early and often on Dalvin.

Nick Chubb, Browns vs. DET
($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD) 
Chubb missed last week with COVID. Assuming he can clear protocols by this weekend (and I have no reason to believe otherwise since he was supposedly close to playing last week), Chubb gets a cakewalk game. Of course, if Chubb cannot go, then D’Ernest Johnson gets another blowup opportunity (despite a less appealing FD price). The Lions have allowed 16 total RB touchdowns over their nine games played.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs. WAS
($8,900 DK, $10,000 FD)
Historically speaking, McCaffrey has done more damage in games that were not started by Cam Newton. That said, it has been a few years now. Cam doesn’t have the arm he once did, and how eager is he to absorb quite as many punishing blows at the stripe? The team would be wise to limit Newton’s carries in this contest if they want him to last the rest of the season. C-Mac proved last week that he can still approach 30 points even without scoring. If he scores, it is just a bonus.

D’Andre Swift, Lions @ CLE
($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
Over the last four weeks, only one team has allowed more total RB scores than Cleveland. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift has scored in three of his last five games. He is also leading all RBs in receptions and receiving yards. It may need to come through the air, but 100 total yards and a score have become Swift’s weekly floor.

DFS Sleepers

Michael Carter, Jets vs. MIA
($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD)
Carter doesn’t get Captain Checkdown Mike White at QB anymore, but that may be advantageous for him since that should limit some of the snaps that Ty Johnson steals. Plus, Miami is hardly a shutdown defense against the run. Joe Flacco will have very little success if the Jets cannot establish the run. So, I expect them to feed Carter the ball as much as he can handle.

Myles Gaskin, Dolphins @ NYJ
($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)
This game should provide opportunities for both sides to run the ball effectively. Gaskin has done very little with a plethora of carries recently. This week he could accrue a ton of points with even just a few touches. It may seem mathematically impossible, but the Jets have allowed 14 running back touchdowns over just their last four games. Heck, even I could score twice against this slump-buster of a defense.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Davante Adams should be a set-it-and-forget-it lock at WR1. The only question is do you also roster Tyreek Hill or use him as the only true pivot from Adams. Justin Jefferson could also be used as long as Jaire Alexander remains out. He just lacks the exponential ceiling difference of the top two. If you do choose to not use Adams and/or Hill, I would actually suggest skipping Jefferson and using any of the other top-priced options (Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, or Ja’Marr Chase) for cheaper since they all have great matchups as well. If I go cheap at RB, I could use two of that above group. In reality, I am probably limited to just one of them (and that will likely be Adams). There are several legit options at WR2. I really like both Hunter Renfrow and Brandin Cooks. Cole Beasley could also be in play if you don’t use Diggs. At WR3, I love Michael Gallup and Rashod Bateman. There are not any real pivots that I like there. There are three punt plays I can get behind if you choose to use two expensive WRs up top. Albert Wilson, Danny Amendola, and Josh Reynolds all have slate-breaking opportunities at their prices. If you play any Showdown contests featuring their respective teams, you absolutely need to use each of them.

Fantasy Four-pack

Davante Adams, Packers @ MIN
($8,400 DK, $8,400 FD)
Last year, Adams faced Minnesota twice. In those two games, he recorded 21 receptions, 209 yards, and five touchdowns. Give me another round of that juice.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. DAL
($8,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
Trevon Diggs has done a fine job of jumping routes and picking off passes. That said, jumping the route would not be a good idea when he is guarding a player as speedy as the Cheetah. Hill has remained a home run threat even during the Chiefs’ October struggles. Now that Patrick Mahomes seems to have righted the ship, the sky is the limit for Hill. He will burn Diggs at least once this week and quite likely multiple times.

Deebo Samuel, Niners @ JAX
($7,800 DK, $7,600 FD)
Jacksonville has limited a pair of solid WR1s in back-to-back weeks, but before that, they were getting scorched like a bag of marshmallows at a boy scout retreat. What makes Deebo even more of an imposing play this week is if Eli Mitchell is out, Samuel may get a few snaps at tailback. Whatever happens with the potential carries, Deebo will finish with some combination of 125 total yards and at least one score.

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. IND
($7,900 DK, $8,100 FD)
No team has allowed more WR scores than Indy. Among opponents’ top WRs to face them, only two have not scored. One was A.J. Brown earlier in the year in a game he got hurt and left early. The other was Brandin Cooks, who still finished the game with 9-89. Not to mention, that three different of those top WRs scored multiple TDs against this defense. I am slightly concerned about Dawson Knox stealing red-zone targets again now that he is healthy, but truthfully they should both go off here.

DFS Sleepers

Brandin Cooks, Texans @ TEN
($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD)
Cooks was not slowed down by the return of Tyrod Taylor in Week 9. In fact, he was back up to 14 targets after a bit of a slow run with Davis Mills under center. Cooks only caught six of those targets, but it was clear that Taylor was trusting his veteran WR. Earlier this year, Cooks posted 14-210-1 on 21 targets in Taylor’s two starts before the QB was hurt. Tennessee has allowed 16 different WRs to post double-digit PPR points. This is why I like stacking Cooks with Taylor and perhaps even Danny Amendola.

Hunter Renfrow, Raiders vs. CIN
($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD)
Cincy has been mediocre against the pass this year. They have had particular difficulties with possession receivers. Renfrow (and to a different degree, Darren Waller) are easily the possession receivers for Vegas. In a PPR format, Renfrow should continue the recent uptick he has seen since Henry Ruggs’ arrest. Over the last two weeks, only two WRs have more TDs and only three have more receptions.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Travis Kelce at home versus the Cowboys, yes, please. George Kittle versus Jacksonville, yes please, too! Darren Waller versus Cincy makes it a fantasy

among the expensive tight ends. At a slightly lower price point, Dalton Schultz is in play as is Dawson Knox. Cole Kmet could also be an even cheaper option. That said, if I don’t pay up for one of the big three, I will likely just punt with Adam Trautman, Geoff Swaim, or Ryan Griffin.

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. DAL
($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD)
Last week, Kansas City made a quantifiable effort to get Kelce more involved in the offense once again. It worked out as the Chiefs offense got itself back on track. Dallas hasn’t been tested by many elite TEs this year, and Kyle Pitts actually was the only part of Atlanta to do anything against them last week. I expect KC to continue to focus their attack with Kelce as he tops 100 yards for a second straight game while scoring at least once. The best part about Kelce this week is he is cheaper than Tyreek Hill if you are looking to put together a game stack.

George Kittle, Niners @ JAX
($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD)
In the two games since his return from injury, Kittle has led San Fran in targets, receptions, and receiving TDs. He also is only nine receiving yards behind Deebo Samuel. Jacksonville has dominated the position the last three weeks, but they have faced talent the equivalent of Larry, Mo Alie, and Curly. Those stooges aside, Jacksonville got destroyed earlier this year by every quality TE (and a few so-so ones, too) that faced them.

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. CIN
($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD)
The Bengals have been decent against opposing TEs this year, but over their last four games, they have allowed an average of 5-57-0.5. That is typically Waller’s floor. His numbers are a little down on the year, but he is still averaging nine targets per game started. If he can finally get into the end zone, the 3x will hit. It just isn’t as certain as Kittle or Kelce.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions @ CLE
($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD)
Hockenson has been a victim of being surrounded by a bunch of chaff. Opposing defenses are keying on him because the other Detroit WRs don’t scare anyone. The addition of Josh Reynolds this week might finally open a little wiggle room for the big tight end. On the year, only one team has allowed more TE touchdowns than Cleveland, including three over the last four weeks. Despite a few subpar performances, Hockenson is still first or second in every receiving category for Detroit. I like him to post a floor of 6-70 here.

DFS Sleepers

Cole Kmet, Bears vs. BAL
($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD)
Over their last four games, Kmet leads the Bears in receptions and receiving yards, and he is trailing only Darnell Mooney in targets. Meanwhile, Baltimore has been among the worst teams at defending TEs all season. More than half of the teams to face them have had a double-digit PPR tight end performances. They did hold Mike Gesicki in check last week, but Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen still posted a respectable 4-57 against them. It won’t take much for Kmet to reach 3x on DK, especially if he continues to be featured in the Bears’ offensive strategy.

Adam Trautman, Saints @ PHI
($3,300 DK, $4,800 FD)
No team has been as rotten against TEs this year as Philly. They have allowed 25 percent more receptions to the position than the next-worst team. They have also allowed the most receiving yards and TDs to the position. It has gotten so bad that, over the last four weeks, Philly is allowing an atrocious 9-103-0.75 to the position. This comes despite facing three of four mediocre to downright bad offenses. Since Trevor Siemian has taken over at QB, Trautman is tied for the team lead in targets and ranks second in receptions. If he continues to get the increased volume, he should be in for a big week at a bargain-basement price.