“Only a Sith deals in absolutes.” — Obi-Wan Kenobi
As we come to the end of our position lists of prospects for the 2023 NFL draft, we have to address the current maxim that running backs don’t matter. Of course, that’s not true as an absolute. What we generally mean when we say that is that the position is more fungible than it has been in the past, and that’s true. Fewer teams have every-snap bell-cow backs, because fewer teams are looking for them. There are more backfield rotations in which specific backs with specific skills are utilized in specific situations, and the days of the back getting 350 carries and beating defenses over the head with it are pretty much gone.
That’s as much a function of the modern NFL as anything else. It’s not that running backs are somehow worse or less effective than they used to be — quite the opposite in some cases. And it’s not as if some NFL teams don’t still want to define their offenses with the run game. I live in Seattle, so I can tell you that from about 10 miles away from my house. Today’s NFL is a 3×1 league. It’s a quick-game/RPO passing league with explosive plays coming out of those concepts. By that nature, you’re not going to see as many pro-sets and I-formation stuff. You can only put 11 guys on the field at the same time.
Peering more specifically into the 2023 class of draftable running backs, perhaps the question to ask is not whether they matter, but how do they matter? Ideally, you’d want a power back who can carry a serious load in the run game if it’s required, with the kinds of satellite skills that produce those explosive plays and keep defenses on edge.
There are as many different kinds of backs in this class as there are in most others, so it’s all about what flavor fits your offense. We have the additional paradigm complication at the top of a back who is truly generational (as much as we all overuse that word), and may well be the best prospect at his position in the last 15 years.
From Bijan Robinson on down, here are my eight best running backs in the 2023 draft class, and how they each could matter at the NFL level.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
(All prospect measurement percentiles courtesy of MockDraftable.com).
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