It is approaching Saquon Barkley mania in Houston.
After a crushing loss to the Baltimore Ravens 34-10 in the AFC Divisional Round, the goals for the Houston Texans’ offense have been abundantly clear. If they want to compete with the cream of the conference, including Baltimore and the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs, they have to find ways to more effectively run the ball.
With major investments already made along the offensive line, including three of the highest-paid offensive linemen in the league, the focus has naturally gone to the running back position. From there, the dream pairing has been obvious to everyone.
National analysts, fantasy football fans, and the Texans’ own diehards all share a common sentiment that it would be incredible to watch free agent Saquon Barkley join rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the rest of an extremely talented offense under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
In the last two weeks, Barkley has done nothing to stop the speculation. In fact, despite public comments that he would like to play in New York, he has thrown more fuel on the fire.
Barkley followed Stroud, wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, incumbent starting running back Devin Singletary, franchise legend J.J. Watt, and tight end Brevin Jordan on Instagram last week. He also liked a tweet from Houston rapper Paul Wall recruiting him to come to the team.
KPRC reporter Aaron Wilson confirmed the interest on Sunday when he reported that Barkley reached out to members of the team, including Stroud, to express his interest in joining Texans.
The fit, at least at a glance, could not be more clear. A team that desperately needs to improve how they run the ball and find ways to take pressure off of their quarterback could add one of the most dynamic backfield weapons in the NFL. It isn’t very hard to tie the connections together and why Barkley, who is seeking a payday from one of the NFL’s teams with ample cap space, would be interested in the opportunity to compete while securing the money he’s earned.
Is it too good to be true?
Barkley is coming off a 2023 campaign where he played in 14 games and carried the rock 247 times for 962 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry and also chipped in 41 receptions for 280 yards and four touchdowns. It was a sharp decrease from his 2022 campaign, where he made the Pro Bowl, rushed for 1300 yards and helped guide the Giants to the playoffs.
On paper, he represents an explosive vertical runner who could maximize Houston’s investments on the offensive line and get the most out of their commitment to the running game. They just have to ensure that they’re getting one of the better versions of Barkley compared to last year.
However, that small decline is one of two main questions regarding how Barkley would really fit as a runner under Slowik.
This decrease could logically be attributed to playing on a failing offense under quarterbacks Tommy Devito and Tyrod Taylor while Daniel Jones was injured. The Giants were considered one of the least talented offenses in the NFL and he naturally received the bulk of defense’s attention from that standpoint.
It’s very fair to believe that Barkley would improve immensely behind Houston’s superior offensive line and with defenses forced to account for weapons such as Collins, Dell, and tight end Dalton Schultz. In fact, New York Giants reporter Dan Schneier believes that it should be one of the biggest reasons the Texans should believe in Barkley.
“Ultimately, playing alongside C.J. Stroud will be the biggest difference for Barkley.” Schneier said told Texans Wire when asked about the free-agent running back’s potential fit in Houston.”It will be the first time in his career he’s played with elite or borderline elite QB production.”
Defenses would certainly have to account for Stroud in the threat of play action on any down. However, last season’s offensive tendencies would suggest that the Texans will still run the ball plenty. This has led to some concerns over how Barkley would succeed in the Shanahan-style zone running scheme, contrary to the power gap mechanisms that he thrived in early in his career and at Penn State.
The data doesn’t suggest that the new playbook would be a problem either.
Barkley ran predominantly zone in 2023, with his four highest-graded rushing performances of the season, per PFF, coming in games where he saw 11-plus zone carries. Giants head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka have run a variable offense that has helped mature Barkley into a more patient runner who is willing to take what is blocked for him rather than always hunting home runs. On that note, Schneier also believes the past two seasons have well prepared him for the transition.
“Over the last two seasons under Daboll & Kafka, Barkley has made significant changes to his running style – getting vertical faster,” he said of the runner’s maturation. “This could help him transition to Slowik’s scheme faster.
If you believe that Barkley will both rebound with a legitimate supporting cast and is prepared for how Houston wants to run the ball, it’s an easy fit to get behind. However, this still might not justify the level of pay that Barkley will likely command at over $10 million per season. What differentiates him from other players who could succeed running the ball with the support of this offense?
Look no further than motion and the passing game.
Last season, Barkley ranked in just the top 20 in running back targets. The Giant’s offensive ineptitude was demonstrated by the back seeing his second-lowest volume of targets ever in a season where he was healthy. However, in the year prior, 2022, when New York’s offense was functional, he ranked sixth with 76 targets. In fact, across his career, Barkley has had over 40 receptions in five of his six seasons in the NFL and he represents a versatile player who can contribute through the air.
Barkley is capable of taking screen passes to the house, serving as a late checkdown, or even lining up wide on the line of scrimmage. From the line of scrimmage, he can run quick routes, crossers, or even be incorporated into sweep concepts that demand attention from the defense and spread heavy personnel thin.
It would add another weapon to threaten defenses on the perimeter, but it becomes even more intriguing when considering Slowik’s love of motion. Barkley demands attention from defenders whenever he moves, even when plays are not designed to get him the ball. This could be sequenced together with the rest of Houston’s dynamic offensive players for an offense that becomes infuriating to stop.
A runningback who punishes defenses when he carries the ball, threatens defenses vertically and horizontally when running routes, and further distracts and exhausts them even when the play is not designed to go his way. It’s exactly the type of player that could make this offense lethal; just look at how the San Francisco 49ers have evolved with the presence of Christian McCaffrey.
There are fair concerns outside of Barkley’s football fit that are worth addressing.
Barkley could demand upwards of $12 million per year on a multi-year contract. While the rest of the league works towards spending less money on the running back position and saving costs there, this would represent going completely against convention. The team will also likely need to win a bidding war against other franchises looking to add the dynamic back in free agency.
Fortunately, the financial situation in Houston is different from the rest of the league. They not only have a great deal of salary cap space, but they also have the luxury of a rookie quarterback and most of their marquee players currently playing on rookie deals. If there was ever a team that could afford a short, front-loaded contract for a running back, the Houston Texans would be that team.
The other concern would be Barkley’s injury history. He played in only two games in 2020 and, despite playing in 13 games in 2021, he was only able to carry 162 times and ran for less than 600 yards. He is 27 years old and carries the common concern that teams do not want to be the ones that pay for a second-contract running back and witness their decline
This is an inherent risk of signing Barkley but one that the Texans may feel comfortable with due to their ability to alleviate his workload by leaning on elite quarterback play. It also would not be out of the question for Houston to sign another high end backup to further make sure that their star running back can stay healthy
Overall, this assessment makes as much sense on the deep dive as it does on the surface level.
Barkley has the chance to add a dynamic edge to the Texans’ offense and create one of the most balanced attacks in the NFL. What he could represent for Slowik, both with his ability to carry the ball and his presence on motion concepts, could allow every player in the offense to be a better version of themselves.
If the money makes sense and the interest is indeed mutual, this one seems like a perfect pairing. Fans will just have to wait to see if general manager Nick Caserio can deliver on their offseason dream.
