The Detroit Tigers (0-1) visit the Cincinnati Reds (1-0) Saturday at Great American Ball Park for a 5:15 p.m. ET game. We analyze the Tigers-Reds odds and lines, with MLB betting odds and picks around the matchup.
Tigers at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Ivan Nova vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Nova in 2019 for the Chicago White Sox: 11-12, 4.72 ERA in 34 starts (tied with MLB lead).
- 2019 vs. Reds: NONE
- Career vs. Reds: 5-7, 4.24 ERA (35 ER, 74 1/3 IP) in 12 starts.
Castillo in 2019: 15-8, 3.40 ERA in 32 starts.
- Career vs. Tigers: Never faced Detroit before.
- 2019 at home: 8-7, 3.15 ERA in 20 starts.
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Tigers at Reds: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Tigers
- SP Daniel Norris (COVID-19) out
- SP Jordan Zimmermann (forearm) out
Reds
- SP Anthony DeSclafani (shoulder) out
- RP Michael Lorenzen (forearm) questionable
- OF Josh VanMeter (leg) questionable
Tigers at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12;30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Reds 9, Tigers 2
Moneyline (ML)
The 2020 Tigers (+210) came into the COVID-altered regular season expected to be basement dwellers in the standings and looked as bad as people assumed in their 7-1 loss to the Reds on Opening Day. They finished 2019 with the worst record (47-114) in MLB by 6½ games.
The Reds (-239) came in as one of the National League sleepers and a team expected to compete for the NL Central crown. Saturday’s starter, Castillo, would be an ace on a lot of other ball clubs but the Reds rotation is stacked. The 27-year-old enters his fourth season off an impressive 2019 campaign.
We are PASSING ON THE MONEYLINE on this one because the Tigers’ payout is too small and the Reds’ price is too expensive.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Just like the Tigers were had the worst regular-season record in 2019, they were the least profitable MLB team to bet on (66-95 run line record). The Reds surprised bettors last year (81-81 run line record) but won’t sneak up on them this season hence the Reds (-1.5, -134) run line odds.
Castillo has never pitched against the Tigers, but Nova has faced the Reds. Nova has started 12 games in his career, and seven games at Cincinnati’s home ballpark.
His slash line against current Reds hitters is even less inspiring. Current Reds hitters have 155 at-bats, six home runs, 21 RBIs, and slashed .352 BA/.387 OBP/.592 slugging percentage according to http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/index.pl.
We are more betting against the Tigers here so TAKE REDS (-1.5, -134) on the run line. New to sports betting? A $134 bet on the Reds run line earns a $100 profit if Cincinnati wins by two or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Each team is bottom-10 teams in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging %. Entering 2020, the Reds lineup has hope: 3B Eugenio Suarez is coming off a 49 home run season, they picked up 2B Mike Moustakas, OF/DH Nick Castellanos and have perennial All-Star 1B Joey Votto.
I do lean Over 9.5 (-110), but the Reds had the highest Under percentage in MLB last season (61-93-8). Even if the Reds lineup is much better this season, it’s tough to see Tigers pitching in much run support here. PASS on THE TOTAL in Tigers-Reds.
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