Tag: Detroit Lions Playoff Scenarios

How the Lions can clinch a playoff berth in Week 14

Breaking down the Detroit Lions playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 14, and they can clinch even if they lose

At 11-1, making the playoffs is a foregone conclusion for the Detroit Lions. But it’s still nice, especially for this team, to have an official playoff-clinching scenario with five weeks left in the season.

Not only can the Lions officially punch their ticket this week, they can do so in the simplest of fashions: win. If Detroit beats the Green Bay Packers on Thursday, they will have the old “X” next to their name in the standings page.

Even if the Lions don’t win on Thursday, they can still clinch a playoff spot this week, but the scenarios are much more complicated.

Here is the full list of clinching scenarios for the Lions this week, via NFL Playoff Scenarios (each scenario is its own individual scenario):

1. Win or tie
2. ATL loss/tie + LAR loss/tie + PHI win
3. ATL loss/tie + ARI tie
4. ATL loss/tie + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
5. ATL loss + ARI loss + PHI win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, CHI, PIT, TEN)
6. ATL loss + ARI loss + PHI win + DAL win + CHI win + 1 combined win from (PIT or TEN)
7. ATL tie + ARI loss + PHI win + DAL win + CHI win + PIT win + TEN win
8. TB loss/tie + LAR loss/tie + PHI win
9. TB loss/tie + ARI tie
10. TB loss/tie + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie

The part in italics are results needed for the Lions to clinch at least a tie in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over the Eagles.

[lawrence-related id=116291]

Breaking down the NFC playoff picture entering Week 14 and what lies ahead

Breaking down the NFC playoff picture entering Week 14 and what lies ahead for the Lions and the other teams competing for postseason slots

The Detroit Lions enter Week 14 in unprecedented territory. The 11-1 Lions, winners of 10 games in a row, are the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff ladder if the season ended today.

Alas, there are still five more weeks of games. The Lions technically haven’t even clinched a postseason berth yet, though that could happen this week — even if the Lions lose to the Packers on Thursday night.

Here’s how the Lions and their foes in both the NFC North and the overall NFC stand in the playoff stretch run entering Week 14.

Detroit Lions

Record: 11-1

Remaining schedule

Packers (9-3)
Bills (10-2)
at Bears (4-8)
at 49ers (5-7)
Vikings (10-2)

Minnesota Vikings

Record: 10-2

Remaining schedule

Falcons (6-6)
Bears (4-8)
at Seahawks (7-5)
Packers (9-3)
at Lions (11-1)

Green Bay Packers

Record: 9-3

Remaining schedule

at Lions (11-1)
at Seahawks (7-5)
Saints (4-8)
at Vikings (10-2)
Bears (4-8)

The NFC North is still very much up for grabs, though the Lions have a golden opportunity to help seal the deal with a win over Green Bay in Ford Field on Thursday night. That would put the Lions at 4-0 in the division. Green Bay and Minnesota playing one another in Week 17 guarantees a loss to one of the two teams chasing Detroit for the NFC North title.

The Seattle Seahawks will play a big role in the NFC North outcome. Seattle is in first place in the tightly-packed NFC West, where all four teams currently have between five and seven wins. Green Bay and Minnesota head to Seattle in back-to-back weeks starting in Week 15. The Seahawks have won three games in a row, though they are just 3-4 at home for the season.

NFC overall

While it’s still technically possible for the division winner in the NFC West to catch the Lions in the seeding race, it would take Seattle (7-5) winning out and the Lions losing out because Detroit owns a head-to-head victory from Week 4. The Rams and Cardinals (each 6-6) cannot pass the Lions in the NFC standings due to Detroit beating each, even if the Lions lose out and finish 11-6.

The NFC South currently features Tampa Bay and Atlanta tied at 6-6. Because the Buccaneers beat the Lions in Week 2, Tampa Bay winning out and Detroit losing out would result in the Bucs jumping the Lions in the NFC ladder. The Falcons winning out and the Lions losing their final five games would also lift Atlanta over Detroit on the conference record tiebreak.

The NFC East is still a big threat to the Lions, however…

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 10-2

Remaining schedule

Panthers (3-9)
Steelers (9-3)
at Commanders (8-5)
Cowboys (5-7)
Giants (2-10)

Washington Commanders

Record: 8-5

Remaining schedule

Bye
at Saints
Eagles
Falcons
at Cowboys

The Eagles have won eight games in a row after a 2-2 start. Both of their losses are in the NFC, and that’s important if the Lions and Eagles wind up in a tie; conference record is the first tiebreaker in that scenario.

That Week 16 game in Washington between the Commanders and Eagles is a big one for both the NFC East (the Eagles would clinch with a win) and also the entire NFC playoff picture. Philadelphia won the first meeting, 26-18.

Where the Lions fit in the NFC playoff picture with 2 weeks to go

The Lions are the 3 seed but could move up, while the potential first-round opponent is still very much undecided

The kings of the NFC North got to watch two games on Christmas that were of unusual importance for them. The Detroit Lions had a lot of interest in the outcomes of games involving the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.

At the end of Week 16, the Lions are still right where they began the weekend. Detroit is the No. 3 seed in the NFC. They did move closer toward moving up, however.

The 11-4 Lions are now in a three-team tie atop the NFC. The Eagles’ close win over the New York Giants, paired with the Dallas Cowboys losing on Christmas Eve in the final minute in Miami, elevated Philly to the top of the NFC East at 11-4.

The 49ers got smoked at home, 33-19, by the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. San Francisco is now 11-4, too.

Unfortunately for the Lions, Detroit loses all tiebreakers with the Eagles and 49ers in 3-team scenarios. The 49ers have a 9-1 conference record, while Detroit and Philadelphia are 7-3. That gives the 49ers the first tiebreaker and currently the top seed.

The Lions and Eagles have the same conference record (7-3) and identical records against common opponents (3-1). That pushes the tiebreaker to the next criteria, strength of victory. The Eagles edge out Detroit, .479 to .436 in the aggregate record of the team’s they’ve beaten. Philadelphia is the two seed because of that.

The Lions can’t catch the 49ers in tiebreakers. So with two weeks left on the NFL calendar and games at Dallas and home against Minnesota, Detroit will need to get ahead of both San Francisco and Philadelphia in the win column to get the top spot. The path to the two seed involves winding up with a better record than the 49ers and a tie or above the Eagles. Winning over Dallas in Week 17 would give the Lions the edge in common opponent record over the Eagles.

The 49ers visit the Commanders (4-12) and host the Rams (8-7). The Eagles play the Cardinals (3-12) before finishing at the Giants (5-10).

The first-round foe for Detroit is very much up in the air. Currently it would be the Rams, whose win elevated them to 8-7. Seattle is also 8-7, a game ahead of Minnesota, Atlanta, Green Bay and New Orleans for the final spot. Minnesota and Green Bay play in Week 17. Atlanta and New Orleans play in Week 18. Still a lot to be determined in the final two wild card positions.

Detroit Lions Podcast: Playoff push to the finish of the season

Recapping a great win over Denver, excellent work from the coordinators, setting up the playoff push and more

This week’s episode of the Detroit Lions Podcast is a different type of show. Normally, my cohost Chris and I record and stream live on YouTube, but logistical issues prevented that this week. Instead, I did a solo show that was pre-recorded on Monday afternoon.

The early focus is on what happened for the Lions to flip the switch from the disappointing couple of weeks into the incredible performance in Week 15 against the Denver Broncos. Both coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, had much-needed redemptive games and that’s a good sign going forward.

Forward means the playoffs, where the Lions haven’t technically qualified just yet. It’s a mere formality, and the schedule sets up very well for the Lions to control their own fate into the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Some of the playoff scenarios are covered, too.

Then there is the Week 16 matchup against the Vikings, the first of two meetings in three weeks with Minnesota. How do the Lions match up with their NFC North challengers?

I also broke down a question from a viewer about the assistant coaching staff and the emphasis on player development. There is a public apology to Lions safety Ifeatu Melifonwu, who had the game of his life in the win over Denver.

The audio-only version of the show is available from your favorite podcast provider.

 

Thank you for listening and subscribing!

Rams and Saints on Thursday night has big playoff implications for the Lions

The Week 16 matchup between the Rams and Saints on Thursday night has big playoff implications for the Detroit Lions

No doubt about it, the Detroit Lions control their own destiny. If they beat the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Eve, the Lions will clinch their first division title since 1993. From there, they would have two games left on their schedule to try and become either the first or second seed in the NFC. If the Lions want to become the second seed, they’ll definitely need to beat the Dallas Cowboys in two weeks.

For now, the Lions appear to be headed to become at least the 3rd seed in the NFC playoffs this year. With that, the Lions would play whichever team ends up as the 6th seed in the NFC. If the playoffs were today, the Lions would play the Minnesota Vikings.

However, there are three weeks left, and if the Lions take care of business to win the division, they would knock the Vikings down a spot or potentially out of the playoffs. That’s not the worst thing in the world, but the teams waiting in the wings become interesting.

Currently, the Los Angeles Rams are the 7th seed and are in the playoffs. The New Orleans Saints are the 8th seed and are out of the playoffs. Oddly enough, these two teams play each other on Thursday Night Football. The winner of Thursday’s game would become the 6th seed if the Lions beat the Vikings next Sunday.

Here’s the remaining schedule for the Rams, Saints and Vikings:

  • Minnesota Vikings: vs. Detroit Lions, vs. Green Bay Packers and at Detroit Lions
  • Los Angeles Rams: vs. New Orleans Saints, at New York Giants and at San Francisco 49ers
  • New Orleans Saints: at Los Angeles Rams, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers and vs. Atlanta Falcons

What are the chances that the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years is one where they host Matthew Stafford and the Rams? Certainly something you would see in the movies. Even though it’s a fun thought, it’s somewhat terrifying to think about. The Rams have gotten healthier and are playing some really good football right now. I’d think they’d give the Lions a run for their money despite playing at Ford Field.

We’ll see how it plays out, as the Lions could clinch a playoff berth tonight. All they need is for the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. It’s fun times in Detroit with the Lions playing meaningful games in December. Regardless of how it plays out, let’s enjoy the ride.

 

 

Eagles loss keeps the Lions from clinching a playoff berth

The Eagles loss to the Seahawks keeps the Lions from clinching a playoff berth in Week 15

All the Detroit Lions needed to clinch their first playoff berth since the 2016 season was for the Philadelphia Eagles to defeat the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Alas, the champagne remains corked.

Backup QB Drew Lock led a fourth-quarter comeback, making two clutch throws in the final minute to guide the Seahawks to a stunning 20-17 win over the Eagles. Seattle scored the final 10 points, all in the final 10 minutes.

The win lifted Seattle to 7-7, preventing Detroit from mathematically clinching a playoff spot. The Lions are 10-4, the same record as the fading Eagles. Philadelphia has lost three games in a row after starting 10-1.

[lawrence-related id=100594]