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San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel took a step backward in 2022 after posting 1,405 receiving yards and 1,770 total yards from scrimmage in 2021. Sure, the 49ers had some issues at the quarterback position, as signal callers were dropping like flies in 2022. But a large part of Samuel coming back to Earth was the addition of RB Christian McCaffrey in a mid-season trade.
Deebo wasn’t needed as desperately in the run game last season once a legit NFL-caliber RB1 was acquired. He also put the ball on the ground 3 times, losing 2 fumbles as a ball carrier. That likely had a little to do with a lighter rushing load, too.
So what can fantasy managers expect in 2023? Will Samuel have a resurgence, or will he mostly be a receiver with occasional rushing attempts? Remember, CMC has been injury prone in the past, so Samuel could be one big hit away from a resurgence.
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Deebo Samuel’s ADP: 33.70
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
Samuel has an ADP which is putting him smack dab in the middle of Round 3 in redraft leagues, and fantasy managers are nabbing him early in Round 3 in PPR formats. While we saw he can be one of the brightest stars in the NFL, both catching the ball and running it out of the backfield, things changed dramatically from the 2021 Niners offense, to that of 2022, and 2023.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo is gone, QB Trey Lance was never really there, and now it’s down to former Mr. Irrelevant QB Brock Purdy with bust and journeyman QB Sam Darnold as the backup. While the QB situation isn’t great, the fact McCaffrey is holding down the fort in the backfield takes away the unique rushing opportunities Samuel briefly received.
Among wide receivers, Samuel’s ADP in redraft leagues is 16th, behind the New Orleans Saints’ Chris Olave (29.81), the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Calvin Ridley (30.26), the Seattle Seahawks’ DK Metcalf (30.77) and the Philadelphia Eagles’ DeVonta Smith (30.70). Samuel is going off the draft board just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins (33.48) and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen (35.97).
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Deebo Samuel’s 2022 stats
Games: 13
Receptions | targets: 56 | 94
Receiving yards: 632
Receiving touchdowns: 2
Rushing carries | yards: 42 | 232
Rushing touchdowns: 3
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Where should you draft Samuel?
Yes, Samuel missed 4 games last season due to injury, but his production was going to be much lower than the previous year anyway. The addition of McCaffery gave the 49ers a legitimate RB1, and Samuel could scoot back to a more traditional role.
Samuel had just 2 receiving scores, too, which was the least amount of TDs through the air in his 3 NFL campaigns where he played at least 13 games.
So the question is, where should you draft Samuel? If you want to win, then take him well after his ADP. If you’re nabbing Samuel in Round 3, and depending upon him as a low-end WR1, or high-end WR2, you’re likely going to be one of those fantasy managers wearing a ‘I Suck At Fantasy Football’ punishment shirts or belts. If you’re able to scoop up Samuel in Round 4 or 5, then that is a little more wise.
Looking at the receivers with similar ADP, how could you pass up a legit WR1 like Ridley with a top-5 QB, or a tremendous complementary piece like Higgins, who also has a top-5 QB? Or would you rather have Samuel over an up-and-coming WR like Olave? I wouldn’t.
For me, Samuel is definitely a top-25 fantasy receiver, no question. But his versatility and past production has him way overvalued, and he just isn’t going to see the same kind of carries with CMC. And McCaffery catches the ball out of the backfield a lot, too. Rising WR Brandon Aiyuk is also a mouth to feed, and a full season with a healthy TE George Kittle spells trouble for Samuel’s targets, too. The storm clouds are forming like a huge low-pressure system coming from the Farallon Islands into the Bay Area. Will you heed the warnings, or have your fantasy season flooded with mediocrity?
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