Reasons why the Colts could upset the Chargers in Week 16.
The Chargers head to Indianapolis for their sixth primetime game of the season, this time with a chance to all but lock up an AFC playoff spot. Despite not being in contention, however, the Colts have plenty to play for.
Here are four reasons to be worried about a Monday Night dud from Los Angeles.
Trench temperature difference
After allowing just 12 sacks in the Chargers’ first nine games, the LA offensive line has given up 21 sacks of Justin Herbert in the last five contests. While that stat is a bit misleading because of Herbert’s ability to manage the pocket, which drove sack numbers lower than they should have been to begin the year, the point is the same: the offensive line is hitting a cold stretch. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is coming off a seven-sack performance last week against Minnesota, their most in a single game in four seasons. Conversely, Colts tackle Bernhard Raimann has stacked some nice weeks together, allowing just four sacks to the likes of Chandler Jones, Alex Highsmith, and DeMarcus Lawrence over his last five games. Khalil Mack, meanwhile, has not logged a sack since Week 10 against San Francisco. On both sides of the ball, the Colts have players on hot streaks in the trenches, while LA has a few looking to snap a cold streak. That’s not usually a great combination.
Cover 3 struggles
The Colts’ defensive coordinator is Gus Bradley, who you may remember as LA’s defensive coordinator from 2017-2020. During his tenure as a Chargers coach, Bradley loved to run Cover 3, a tendency that has continued at every stop in his coaching career. Sure enough, Indianapolis is a heavy Cover 3 team. This season, Justin Herbert’s EPA per play against Cover 3 is a poor -0.23. This makes sense for a few reasons, namely that Cover 3 is built to take away some of the deep throws over the middle that is open in Cover 2 since there’s an extra defender in the middle of the field. Some of the best ways to beat Cover 3 are to push the ball downfield consistently, forcing flat defenders to choose between carrying extra deep routes upfield or sticking to their man. The problem with this for LA is that they’re largely allergic to calling such plays, and even if they do, traditional dropback passing has not worked the last few weeks because of the offensive line struggles.
Kickoff returns
Since taking over for Isaiah Rodgers midway through Week 12, undrafted rookie Dallis Flowers has been one of the best kick returners in all of football. He’s averaging 34.1 yards per return, leading the league amongst players with at least ten return opportunities. Indianapolis also leads the league in points added on kick returns at 7.8, per Football Outsiders, partially thanks to Flowers, who has broken returns of 48, 49, and 89 yards. While the Chargers are 12th in kickoff defense DVOA, they’re 31st in kickoff return, and DeAndre Carter’s 19.1 yards per return is second worst in the league amongst players with 10+ returns. That discrepancy could lead to the Chargers losing the field position battle if Cameron Dicker can’t consistently force touchbacks.
Primetime close calls
So far, the Chargers are 2-3 in primetime, but all five games have ended in one-possession affairs. For the most part, that’s fairly standard: two three-point losses to Kansas City and a six-point loss to San Francisco are hard games to hold a grudge over. Those are Super Bowl contenders that LA hung tough with despite injuries piling up all over the roster. Wins over playoff teams like the Dolphins and Titans are also examples of what the Chargers look like on their best days. But what concerns me here is the overtime victory over the Broncos in Week 6. Like this Colts game, that game came on Monday Night Football. Like the Colts, the Broncos have an above-average defense and a horrible offense. Denver hit Justin Herbert 8 times and forced overtime, where the two teams seemed deadlocked until Ja’Sir Taylor made an incredible special teams play. Denver has the worst special teams in the league, Indianapolis 19th. Is that enough of a difference to prevent a similar mistake from them?
