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The Chicago Cubs (17-10) and Boston Red Sox (15-13) wrap up a 3-game series at Fenway Park Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Cubs, who were -113 favorites, lost 17-0 in the 2nd game of the series Saturday with the Over (9) hitting in Boston. The loss snapped a 4-game winning streak for Chicago.
CF Ceddanne Rafaela finished with a HR and 7 RBIs for the Red Sox, who cashed as +104 underdogs. RF Tyler O’Neill also homered, helping Boston win for just the 2nd time in 5 games.
Cubs at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Hayden Wesneski vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Wesneski (2-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 3rd appearance. He has a 0.16 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 4.3 K/9 in 6 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 2 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in relief appearance of 3-1 home victory vs. Houston Astros Thursday
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win at St. Louis Cardinals July 28, 2023
- 2023 stats: 3-5, 4.63 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.28 WHIP in 11 starts and 23 relief appearances
- Has never faced Boston
Houck (3-2, 1.65 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 32 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-1 loss at Cleveland Guardians Tuesday
- 2024 home stats: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.02 WHIP in 2 starts
- Career vs. Cubs: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (2 IP, 1 ER), 1.50 WHIP in 2 relief appearances
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Cubs at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Cubs 3
Moneyline
It’s unlikely that Boston’s offense will be able to maintain Saturday’s level of production; however, Houck will probably have a better start than Wesneski. Houck has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 4 of 5 starts, while Wesneski hasn’t even pitched more than 4 innings since June 28, 2023.
The Red Sox, who were 15th in runs per game at 4.33 entering Saturday, can’t be trusted to keep scoring runs over the course of a full game, but Houck is a good bet to keep them in position to at least win the 1st 5 innings.
BET RED SOX 1ST 5 INNINGS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
Boston has struggled to win back-to-back games recently — let alone by multiple runs. The Cubs are also a bit too expensive to cover +1.5 at -175.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Over has hit in the 1st 2 games of this series, but between Boston’s offense regressing toward the mean and Houck likely limiting Chicago to 2 or fewer runs, we should see a lower-scoring game Sunday. While it is a small sample size, Wesneski also hasn’t given up a run yet in 6 1/3 innings.
BET UNDER 9 (-105).
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