Tag: Cubs Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (67-66) and Pittsburgh Pirates (62-70) meet for a Wednesday matinee as they close out a 3-game NL Central series. First pitch from PNC Park is slated for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 5-4

Chicago has taken the 1st 2 games of this series and is 5-1 over its last 6 games. The Cubs have scored 27 runs in the 2 wins at Pittsburgh; they have averaged a robust 9.83 runs per game since Aug. 22.

The Pirates are 1-3 over their last 4. In home games against Chicago, Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight and 4 of its last 5.

Cubs at Pirates projected starters

RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. RHP Paul Skenes

Hendricks (3-10, 6.33 ERA) makes his 19th start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 101 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 6-3 win at Miami Marlins Friday
  • 2024 road stats: 2-5, 7.16 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 in 12 appearances (10 starts)
  • 2024 vs. Pirates: 0-1, 7.45 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.76 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Pirates: 9-14, 3.81 ERA (170 IP, 72 ER), 170 H, 42 BB, 126 K in 31 starts

Skenes (8-2, 2.16 ERA) makes his 18th start. The rookie owns a 0.94 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 104 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-0 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Thursday
  • 2024 home stats: 5-1, 2.52 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 10 starts
  • Career vs. Cubs: 1-0, 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 18 K in 2 starts in 2024

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Cubs at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Cubs +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Pirates -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-155) | Pirates -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Pirates 4

Moneyline

Pittsburgh is 4-16 over its last 20 games.

Skenes puts the best foot forward for the Bucs, but Hendricks, who has been undone by a .425 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations, figures as more of a 4.25-ERA performer. And so he is likely being undervalued by bettors.

As a team, the Cubs have slightly underplayed their 4.41 RPG and 4.17 RPG allowed. Now fighting for an NL Wild Card slot, CHICAGO (+140) is the value side of this match-up.

Run line/Against the spread

Look to the ML for the best leverage here. AVOID.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed is 6 of Chicago’s last 7 games. And it is 9-2 across Pittsburgh’s 11 games at home.

On a near-90-degree afternoon at PNC and with some slight Skenes fade and recent play to the Chicago bats, peg a lean on the OVER 8 (-115).

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (66-66) and Pittsburgh Pirates (62-69) meet Tuesday for the middle game of a 3-game series. First pitch from PNC Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 4-4

Chicago beat Pittsburgh 18-8 Monday while covering as a -100 road favorite. The Cubs had an 8-run 6th inning and a 6-run 9th inning and had 8 stolen bases – their most in a game since 1913.  The Cubs had 2 players finish with 4 RBIs in the win, including SS Dansby Swanson, who hit a grand slam.

RHP Mitch Keller was the losing pitcher for Pittsburgh (4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 ).

Cubs at Pirates projected starters

LHP Justin Steele vs. RHP Jared Jones

Steele (4-5, 3.07 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 123 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 10-2 outing vs. Detroit Thursday
  • Career vs. Pittsburgh: 1-3, 6.44 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

Jones (5-6, 3.56 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 91 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 5-4 win over St. Louis on July 3
  • Career vs. Cubs: 1-1, 3.75 ERA (12 IP, 5 ER), 14 H, 2 BB, 11 K in 2 starts
  • First game back from a lat strain

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Cubs at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+115) | Pirates +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Pirates 4

Moneyline

BET CUBS (-145).

Chicago enters as the hotter team, being 7-3 in its last 10 overall and 3-1 in its last 4 on the road while the Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 overall and 1-2 in their last 3 at home.

The Cubs are also 3-1 in their last 4 matchups vs. the Pirates in Pittsburgh, also being 2-1 in the last 3 meetings overall.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PIRATES +1.5 (-140).

Pittsburgh has come within 1-run of the Cubs in 2 of Chicago’s last 3 wins over the Pirates. Pittsburgh is also the slightly hotter team in the last 10 matchups between these squads as the Pirates are 6-4 across that span vs. the Cubs.

The Pirates have also been the much better team ATS this season, being 73-58 while Chicago is only 63-69 ATS on the year.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-105).

The Over has hit in 3 of Chicago’s 4 games during this current road trip and is 5-0-1 in its last 6 games overall. For Pittsburgh, the Over is 3-1 in its last 4 games.

The Over has also hit in 3 of the last 4 Chicago-Pittsburgh meetings in Pittsburgh, being 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings overall.

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (23-16) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-22) at PNC Park Saturday to continue a 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs won the 2023 series 10-3, and lead 2024, 1-0

In their last series versus the Padres, the Cubs failed to score more than 3 runs. It was almost the same for Pittsburgh, who scored more than 3 runs once against the Angels. But it was the Cubs who broke out of their slump Friday night.

After leading 3-2, Chicago erupted in the 7th inning with 4 runs. 3B Christopher Morel and 2B Nick Madrigal hit RBI singles and LF Ian Happ came through with a double, and the Cubs won 7-2.

Pittsburgh came away with 7 hits, and SS Oneil Cruz, who lead Friday’s lineup with a .261 BA, also ended the night going 2-3, the only Pirate with 2 hits.

Cubs at Pirates projected starters

LHP Justin Steele vs. RHP Paul Skenes

Steele (0-0, 0.96 ERA) makes his 3rd start this season. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 9 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home loss against the San Diego Padres Monday.
  • Last 5 starts vs. PIT: 1-2, 5.84 ERA, 29 K in 24 2/3 IP

Skenes (0-0, 0.99 ERA in AAA Indianapolis) makes his MLB debut. In the minors he posted a 0.91 WHIP and 14.8 K/9 in 7 starts.

  • Last start: 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-3 home win against the Buffalo Bisons on Sunday
  • Averaged 99.9 mph on his fastball over 198 pitches at Triple-A this year.

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Cubs at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $110) | Pirates -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+165) | Pirates +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 3, Pirates 2

Moneyline

After a loss, Pittsburgh has only won 7 of their 21 games (33.3%). Combine that with a Cubs team that has a 3-1 record against the NL Central, and I like Chicago to win again today.

Run line/Against the spread

Steele is still working his way back from injury and hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings since he returned. It is early in the season so I don’t expect the Cubs to push him late in the game, meaning Chicago’s bullpen will get plenty of chances to keep this game close.

While the Cubs are 14-6 ATS on the road, as a road favorite they are just 1-2.

Choosing the Pirates at +1.5 (-200) just doesn’t bring the value so I will PASS and stick with the moneyline.

Over/Under

After a loss, the Pirates post a 12-7-2 Under record and 11-7-1 at home. The current line is pretty low but the books seem to know what is coming. The line has already moved from 7.5 to 7.

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+105).

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (22-16) and Pittsburgh Pirates (17-21) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from PNC Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Chicago won 10-3 last season

Chicago lost 3-0 vs. the San Diego Padres Wednesday while failing to cash as a +120 home underdog. RHP Hayden Wesneski picked up the loss as he allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits and 1 walk with 3 K’s in 6 innings. The Cubs have lost 2 of their last 3 outings.

Pittsburgh dropped its 2nd straight game with a 5-4 loss vs. the Los Angeles Angels Wednesday, failing to cash as a -132 home favorite. The Pirates led 4-2 at the end of the 5th, but they allowed the Angels to score 3 unanswered runs in the 6th.

Cubs at Pirates projected starters

RHP Javier Assad vs. RHP Jared Jones

Assad (3-0, 1.66 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 38 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-0 home victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers Sunday
  • Career vs. Pittsburgh: 2-0, 2.81 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 6 BB, 17 K across 3 starts — won both starts vs. Pirates in 2023 (12 IP, 2 ER)

Jones (2-3, 2.63 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.78 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 41 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 1-0 home win over Colorado Rockies Saturday
  • Has never faced Cubs before

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Cubs at Pirates odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:05 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Pirates -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-215) | Pirates -1.5 (+176)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 3, Pirates 1

Moneyline

BET CUBS (+110).

The Cubs have won back-to-back games vs. the Pirates in Pittsburgh and are 7-3 in the last 10 matchups overall. Chicago is also the slightly hotter team entering this matchup, as the Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games, while the Pirates are only 3-7 in their last 10.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I expect Chicago to cover here as a +1.5 (-215) underdog, but the line is not worth the risk of betting on as currently set. The Cubs’ odds are simply safer on the moneyline, so bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-120).

The Under has hit in back-to-back games for Chicago and is 7-3 in its last 10 games. For Pittsburgh, the Under is 6-2-2 in its last 10 games.

This is only a lean because the Over has hit in 5 consecutive Chicago-Pittsburgh matchups and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Cubs (33-38) begin a 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-36) on Monday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-0

The Cubs lost 6-3 to the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, which ended a 5-game winning streak. Chicago is only 4 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the lead in the NL Central.

The Pirates were defeated by the Brewers 5-2 on Sunday, extending their losing streak to 6 games. After beginning last week in 1st place in the NL Central, Pittsburgh is now in 3rd place, 2 1/2 games behind Milwaukee.

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Cubs at Pirates projected starters

LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Osvaldo Bido

Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 77 2/3 innings.

  • Has allowed 3 ER or more in 3 of his last 4 starts
  • June 14 vs. Pirates: Win, 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Bido (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his 2nd career start, both against the Cubs. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 in 4 innings.

  • June 14 vs. Cubs: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
  • Was 3-4 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, and 9.1 K/9 in 10 starts in Triple-A before being called up

Cubs at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+135) | Pirates +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Pirates 4

Moneyline

Even though Smyly has sputtered in recent starts, I’ll back the CUBS (-125) on the road in Monday’s NL Central matchup. Chicago is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, including 4 consecutive wins against Pittsburgh.

Run line/Against the spread

CUBS -1.5 (+135) has solid value with how these teams have performed lately. The Cubs have defeated the Pirates by at least 4 runs in each of the 1st 3 meetings this season, and Bido is only making his 2nd career start.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9 (-105).

The Cubs recently got OF Cody Bellinger back in the lineup and OF Mike Tauchman has provided solid production in recent games. Smyly surrendered 5 ER to the Pirates on June 14 and Pittsburgh is tied for the 9th-best wRC+ (111) against left-handed pitching in June.

The Over is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings overall.

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (26-22) go for a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates (18-30) Thursday at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

2021 series: Cubs lead 7-4

Chicago took the first two games of this series, winning 4-3 Tuesday and 4-1 Wednesday. The Pirates haven’t won a season series against the Cubs since 2014.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is projected to start the series finale for Chicago. The eight-year veteran is 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 9 starts this season.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 12-3 victory at St. Louis Cardinals Friday
  • Career vs. Pirates: 6-10, 3.36 ERA (115 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 21 starts
  • 2021 vs. Pirates: 0-2, 7.88 ERA (8 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 2 starts

LHP Tyler Anderson is Pittsburgh’s projected starter. The six-year vet is 3-4 with a 4.73 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 9 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 9 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 20-1 drubbing at Atlanta Braves Friday
  • Career vs. Cubs: 3-2, 3.99 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 6 starts
  • 2021 vs. Cubs: 1-2, 3.93 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 3 BB, 18 K in 3 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cubs at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cubs 4, Pirates 2

Money line (ML)

CHICAGO (-150) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. Hendricks is having a solid May, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.36 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in 4 starts.

The Pirates have the worst home record (8-13) in the NL and are a woeful 6-17 overall this month.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. The lean would be with the Pirates +1.5 (-135) as four of their seven losses to the Cubs this season were one-run defeats, but I’m not laying the juice. Hendricks is on his game and the Bucs are spiraling.

ATS records: Cubs 27-21 | Pirates 21-27

Over/Under (O/U)

Back the UNDER 7.5 (-105) to win 0.3 UNITS. The Cubs are an Under team.

The Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games, 10-3-1 in their last 14 and 12-4-1 in their last 17. The hesitation with a larger wager is that the Under is 2-7 in Hendrick’s starts, including 1-5 in his last 6.

The Pirates are also an Under team (see O/U record below), but are 10-10-1 O/U at home.

In addition, umpire Ryan Additon is scheduled to be calling balls and strikes Thursday. The Under is 4-1 in his last 5 games behind the plate.

O/U records: Cubs 19-26-3 | Pirates 20-25-3

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 51-47-2 15-17-1 -2.32
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 154-133-3 64-59-1 +9.58
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (4-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (1-6) continue their weekend series at PNC Park with a 6:35 p.m. ET tilt Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Davies is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. Last year, Davies went 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 69 1/3 IP over 12 starts. He allowed two runs to these Pirates in a 5-2/3-inning start against Pittsburgh on April 4. Pittsburgh bats own a .705 OPS, .136 isolated power against the veteran righty. The Pirates have a left-leaning lineup, but Davies handles opposite-hand bats better than most right-handed starters.

RHP Mitch Keller is expected to start for the Pirates. Keller made five starts in 2020, going 1-1 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, and 7.5 BB/9 in 21 2/3 IP. Chicago drew four walks and smacked a home run against Keller in collecting three runs in three innings April 4.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cubs at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (-105) |  Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cubs 4, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

The Cubs took Thursday’s series opener, 4-2 (Friday was a built-in off day after what marked Pittsburgh’s home opener). The Pirates played Chicago tough a year ago, losing six of 10 games and being outscored by just four runs (38-34) along the way.

Keller exhibited solid velocity in his debut. He’s yielded an .868 OPS over his career but a mere .702 figure in home games.

The Pirates are a lean in this one; consider holding out for a Pittsburgh +140 tag.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Better relative value on the home lean here can be found with the PIRATES +1.5 (-115) action. The game has a wind-in Under lean with two rested bullpens at the ready.

Over/Under (O/U)

The bullpens figure into this call, but there is perhaps too much early season static to overcome. Chicago’s pen has been outstanding (2.39 ERA, 2.87 expected ERA). Cubs relievers have fanned 13.3 batters per nine. Pittsburgh’s pen has been better than its 6.67 surface ERA. The Bucs have been undone by a high rate of fly balls and those fly balls leaving the yard.

A 13-mile-an-hour breeze, in from right field, is in the weather forecast, and that makes the Under a lean. Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8.5 (-105) or holding out for a 9 for better leverage.

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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (3-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (1-5) open a three-game series at PNC Park with a 1:35 p.m. ET tilt Thursday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Arrieta is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. Last year with the Philadelphia Phillies, Arrieta went 4-4 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 44 1/3 IP over nine starts. The veteran righty opened his 2020 season with a win over these Pirates while allowing just one run across 6 IP.

LHP Tyler Anderson is the projected starter for the Pirates. With the San Francisco Giants in 2020, he went 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 11 starts and two relief appearances. Anderson faced the Cubs at Wrigley Field Saturday; he allowed 3 ER on 5 hits and a pair of walks over 5 frames.

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Cubs at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+110) |  Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cubs 4, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

The Cubs figure to struggle against southpaws after logging an anemic .619 OPS against lefties in 2020.

Arrieta — who didn’t miss many bats while being dinged by some hard contact in his season debut — is a right-hander who struggles more than most against batters of the opposite hand (lefty bats cracked him for a .873 OPS in 2020 and a .931 figure in 2019).

Anderson registered a swinging-strike rate of 24.2% in his first start. The Pirates lefty is a fly-ball type who will benefit from a pitcher’s breeze which is in the Steel City forecast for Thursday afternoon.

A tag closer to +130 would be appreciated, but PITTSBURGH (+120) is a workable play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

This game has some Under lean. There is some merit to a PIRATES +1.5 (-135) wager but perhaps only as an undercard insurance play with the higher-profit action on top.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both teams come in struggling on offense (Pittsburgh .638 OPS, Chicago .581 OPS) and the Under has gone 5-1 in the Cubs’ first six games.

The better parts of both bullpens are well-rested coming into this Thursday matinee which will be followed by an off day. With that off-day pending and with both sides having looked at these starters just last week, figure this one being in the hands of both bullpens early. Both relief units have been good in the early going.

On a dry afternoon with an inward wind of double-digit (miles per hour) strength, PEG SOME VALUE ON THE UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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