Tag: Cubs Cardinals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Chicago Cubs (27-25) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (24-26) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set on Sunday Night Baseball at Busch Stadium at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cards lead 1-0

After Friday’s game was washed out, the Cubs fell 7-6 in Saturday’s affair. It was a 3-3 game before the Cards scored 4 in the bottom of the 8th to go up 7-4. The Cubs fought back, scoring 2 in the 9th but couldn’t seal the deal. 2B Nico Hoerner had 2 hits and 2 RBIs. The Cubs have lost 3 straight and are 3-7 over the last 10.

The Cardinals have won 4 straight and 9 of 11. They sit 2 games behind the Cubs for 2nd place and 5½ out of the NL Central lead. Their top 6 hitters each had a hit Saturday, and 5 of the 6 had multiple hits. After dwelling near the bottom of baseball for much of the season, their offense has climbed to 25th with 3.9 runs per game.

Cubs at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Javier Assad vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Assad (4-0, 1.70 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 53 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves
• 1 career start vs. St. Louis: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 3 K Aug. 23, 2022

Gray (6-2, 2.87 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 47 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K Monday against Baltimore Orioles
• Last 5 starts vs. Cubs: 1-1, 3.20 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 40 K in 25 1/3 IP

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Cubs at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:03 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Cardinals -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

This game is in jeopardy because there have been severe storms in the St. Louis area Sunday morning, and there are more expected in the evening. So keep that in mind if you’re using a boost or a promo that you wouldn’t ordinarily have returned if the game were to be rained out.

The Cards used their top 3 relievers Saturday night, which puts them in limbo Sunday. Facing a starter the likes of Assad, their -145 ML feels inflated. It’s more of a pick ’em to me, and for the value, I’ll take CUBS (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

I like SONNY GRAY UNDER 6.5 K’S (-145) here. He has had 7+ K’s in just 3 of 8 starts. With the threat of rain, and the potential for the game to either end early or his outing to become abbreviated, the upside is on the Under here.

Over/Under

It’s slated to be 81 degrees with a 10-mph wind blowing out to left-center. The Cards are 9-1 O/U in the last 10, and they’ve averaged 6 runs per game through that stretch. So there’s definite Over momentum here. However, with the pitching acumen on the mound, and the real threat of rain, LEAN UNDER 8 (-105).

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The St. Louis Cardinals (23-26) welcome the Chicago Cubs (27-24) to Busch Stadium Saturday. First pitch to kick off the series is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2024, Friday’s game was postponed

The Cubs-Cardinals game, which was rained out on Friday, has been rescheduled for July 13.

Chicago is coming off a 3-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves Thursday, closing as a -117 favorite. The Cubs have lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. Chicago is just 3-7 over its last 10. It sits 2nd in the NL Central and has a 25-26 against the spread (ATS) record.

The Cardinals completed a rare home sweep and beat the Baltimore Orioles, one of the best teams in the MLB, in 3 straight at home. They won 5-4 in the series finale Wednesday, closing as a +124 underdog. St. Louis has won 5 of its last 6 and 8 of its last 10. It is 25-24 ATS on the season.

Cubs at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Taillon (3-2, 2.20 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 32 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 3-2 home loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday
• 2024 road splits: 0-1, 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 11 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 3 K in 2 starts
• Career vs. Cardinals: 5-1, 3.28 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 12 starts

Mikolas (3-5, 5.77 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 53 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-2 home win over the Boston Red Sox last Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 0-2, 6.20 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 26 H, 5 HR, 3 BB, 24 K in 6 starts
• Career vs. Cubs: 5-4, 2.58 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 17 starts and 2 relief appearances

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Cubs at Cardinals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs -106 (bet $106 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-188)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

BET CUBS (-106).

The Cubs have struggled as of late, but they have held their opponent to 3 or fewer in 4 of Taillon’s last 6 starts. Chicago has won 4 of his 6 starts and has only lost to the Braves and Pittsburgh with the latter being a 3-2 loss. The Cubs are also the 4th-best team in the MLB following a loss with a 16-7 record.

Meanwhile, despite sweeping the Orioles at home, the Cardinals are still just 11-12 at Busch Stadium. Given the pitching disadvantages and home-field struggles, avoid the Cardinals here and back CUBS (-106).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

While this is enticing with the Cubs as a run-line favorite, the odds just pose better value on the moneyline. For the Cardinals, they are far too expensive, almost 2x your potential return here, as a run line underdog and are certainly not worth any wager.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-108).

The Cubs are 2-4 O/U in Taillon’s 6 starts this season. They have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 as well, scoring 4 or fewer in 7 straight games. Chicago is 21-28-2 O/U. The Cardinals are the opposite and have been red-hot.

Despite going over in 5 of their last 6, the Cardinals are still 23-24-2 O/U. They are 3-7 O/U in Mikolas’ 10 starts. Considering the trends for both starting pitchers, back UNDER 8.5 (-108).

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The Chicago Cubs (27-24) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (23-26) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Cubs won 8-5 last year

One of the best rivalries in baseball is renewed Friday, and if you’re in the St. Louis area, Bally Sports Midwest has a treat in store. Chip Caray and Joe Buck will be on the call for 1 night only. Caray is the grandson of legendary Cubs and Cardinals announcer Harry Caray, and Buck is the son of legendary Cardinals announcer Jack Buck.

The Cubs limp into town just 3-7 over their last 10 as they completed a 2-5 homestand. They’ve scored just 23 runs in the last 10 games. One thing they have in their corner, though, is the MLB ERA leader Shota Imanaga on the hill.

The Cards are coming off their most optimistic series in a couple of years as they completed a 3-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. They are 8-2 over their last 10 to climb within 5 games of the NL Central lead. SS Masyn Winn is a budding star as the rookie is hitting .295 with 2 homers, 15 RBIs and 7 steals while playing electric defense. He has a 2.0 WAR on the young season.

Cubs at Cardinals projected starters

LHP Shota Imanaga vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Imanaga (5-0, 0.84 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.91 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 52 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K Saturday against Pittsburgh Pirates
• Locates his 92-mph 4-seam heater well; opposing hitters have just a .164 BA against it, while he has thrown it 58.2% of the time
• Has not faced Cardinals before

Mikolas (3-5, 5.77 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 53 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K Saturday against Boston Red Sox
• Last 5 starts vs. Cubs: 1-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17 K in 24 2/3 IP

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Cubs at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $110) | Cardinals +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+125) | Cardinals +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

Mikolas is not the same pitcher after the league abolished defensive shifting. He was an All-Star in 2022, but he allowed a league-high 226 hits last year and has allowed 63 in 53 IP this year. The Cards are on fire, but they generally struggle against pitchers they haven’t seen before. And Imanaga has the entire league off balance.

I’ll take the CUBS -140.

Run line/Against the spread

Imanaga has 7+ K’s in 5 straight starts. The Cards are a little whiff-heavy at 13th-easiest to fan at 8.53 K’s per game. The Cards don’t have a lot of right-handed-hitting depth, and we’ll see some lefty-on-lefty action. Lefties are striking out at a 28% clip against Imanaga this season.

Take SHOTA IMANAGA OVER 5.5 K’S (-110).

Over/Under

It’s slated to be a humid, 78-degree evening with the wind blowing out to left-center at 7 mph. The Cubs are just 3-7 O/U in their last 10 with their struggles at the plate. The Cards are 8-2 with their resurgence at the plate.

This is a tricky total because of Imanaga’s dominance. You could need the Cubs to score 6+ to cash an Over. But Mikolas has allowed at least 3 ER in 6 of his 10 starts. So that’s a good starting point to cash the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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The Chicago Cubs (53-51) and St. Louis Cardinals (46-60) meet Sunday for the finale of a 4-game NL Central set in St. Louis. First pitch at Busch Stadium is slated for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 8-4

The Cubs head into this game seeking a 4-game sweep. They’ve outscored the Redbirds 15-6 in the series and have won 8 consecutive games since July 21. Over that stretch, the Cubs offense has 13 HRs and as many stolen bases while averaging 6.75 runs per game.

The Cardinals visited Wrigley Field for a 4-game series last weekend and dropped 3 of 4. They won the opener in that set, so they’ve dropped 6 in a row to the Cubs since.

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Cubs at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. LHP Steven Matz

Hendricks (4-4, 3.45 ERA) is making his 13th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 70 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-3 win over Chicago White Sox Tuesday
• 2023 road stats: 3-1, 2.82 ERA in 38 1/3 IP
• Last 5 vs. Cardinals: 4-0. 1.93 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (2021-22)

Matz (1-7, 4.34 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 87 IP in 22 games (14 starts).

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
• 2023 home stats: 0-4, 3.89 ERA in 41 2/3
• Career vs. Cubs: 1-2, 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 IP (4 starts)
• Owns a 2.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP across his last 23 IP

Cubs at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Cubs 4

Moneyline

This summer, the NL Central looks like a revolving door with some of the best intermediate-term overall team opportunities, 2-to-3-week stretches where a team is just a solid overall fade or play nearly every day.

An overcooked Cincinnati Reds team was the 1st club through that door. A June surge was not substantiated by support figures, and the Reds became a team to bet against. Analytic real-vs.-expected bettors were rewarded with a July slide. The Cubs and their scoring profile — scoring more than they allowed — were a different kind of opportunity when the scuffled late in the 1st half and were somehow 7 games under-.500 (38-45) on July 3. They have been a solid bet-for in the 2nd half, where so far they are 11-4.

The tricky thing about this game is that the Cardinals may well be the 3rd NL Central team to go through that door. The Cards allow too many runs and are not worthy of a .500 record, but their current mark is off a few beats compared to the club averaging 4.72 RPG while allowing 5.00. Look for some St. Louis bounce-back this August, especially in games where pitching value is in the Cards’ column.

Add some pitching leverage (playing Matz, fading Hendricks, and favoring a St. Louis bullpen that has been undone by a .321 batting average on balls in play) and an early line move in overreach territory, and Sunday’s contest has value on the home side.

BACK THE CARDINALS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Avoid the extra juice here. PASS.

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Over/Under

The 2 starts bring in some marginal-rate figures (home runs to fly balls, averages on balls in play, clutch situational “luck”) that swing both ways — favoring Matz/St. Louis and chipping away at Hendricks/Chicago.

That calls for a meet in the middle and PASS.

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The Chicago Cubs (51-51) and St. Louis Cardinals (46-58) meet Friday for the 2nd contest of a 4-game series in St. Louis. First pitch at Busch Stadium is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 6-4

The Cubs won Thursday’s lid-lifter 10-3. They have won 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9.

St. Louis is 2-2 in its last 4, taking 2 of 3 at the Arizona Diamondbacks in the middle of the week. Prior to that series, the Cardinals visited Wrigley Field for a 4-game set. They won the opener, but dropped the final 3 games. So, they have now lost 4 in a row to the rival Cubs.

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Cubs at Cardinals projected starters

TBD vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Reports have Cubs RHP Hayden Wesneski (2-3, 4.75 ERA) getting called up from Triple-A Iowa to make his 11th start with the big club this season. He owns a 1.20 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 60 2/3 innings across 15 appearances.

• Last pitched for Cubs July 2, working 2 scoreless relief innings; optioned 2 days later to Iowa where he logged a 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 11 IP after being sent down
• 2023 MLB road stats: 1-2, 5.52 ERA (31 IP, 19 ER) in 7 games (6 starts)
• Career vs. Cardinals: Pitched 2/3 innings June 25, marking his only appearance against the Redbirds (0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB 2 K)

Montgomery (6-8, 3.37 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 115 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 7 R (5 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-2 loss at Cubs Sunday
• 2023 home stats: 4-3, 3.39 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 22 ER) in 10 starts
• Last 5 vs. Cubs: 3-2, 3.00 ERA (2022-23)
• Clocked 1.17 ERA across 5 starts prior to his last (June 20-July 18)

Cubs at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:16 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Cardinals -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Cardinals 5

Moneyline

At 4.96 runs per game and 4.42 run per game allowed, the Cubs are deserving of a better record. Friday’s mound matchup does not put the Cubs’ best foot forward, but Wesneski may be a tad overlooked.

Montgomery figures to be slightly overrated, based both on his season line and in recent turns (.234 batting average on balls in play has buoyed a July ERA of 2.74). Expected-ERA figures peg the southpaw as being due some regression.

While BetMGM offers a Cubs (+120) ML line, look to FanDuel Sportsbook to BET CUBS (+130) at a tag with better leverage.

Run line/Against the spread

Avoid the extra juice here. PASS.

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Over/Under

The Montgomery fade and Cubs starter situation makes for an OVER 9 (-120) play. Mix in 2 second-division bullpens, some potential fatigue at the back end of the Cubs ‘pen, and a sultry St. Louis evening with an outward breeze in the forecast.

BET OVER 9 (-120).

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