[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 1-0 SEC) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2, 0-2) are lined up for a Saturday night tussle in Starkville. Kick time at Davis Wade Stadium is slated for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Alabama at Mississippi State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Alabama is No. 11 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. The Crimson Tide lost to the Texas Longhorns on Sept. 9, but have bounced back with 2 wins since. That includes a 24-10 triumph over the Ole Miss Rebels last Saturday; UA covered a -6.5-point spread in that home win. The Tide allowed a total of 559 yards over their last 2 wins.
The Bulldogs lost at the South Carolina Gamecocks 37-30 last Saturday (ATS loss on a +6) and have dropped 2 in a row. Mississippi State outgained its hosts 519 yards to 432 but was undone by a 5-of-14 performance in converting 3rd downs. For the season, the Bulldogs have converted just 32.7% of their 3rd downs; that ranks 120th in the nation.
Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+
Alabama at Mississippi State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Alabama -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Mississippi State +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
- Against the spread (ATS): Alabama -14.5 (-110) | Mississippi State +14.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Alabama at Mississippi State picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 38, Mississippi State 14
Moneyline
Juice drowning out true odds here: PASS.
Against the spread
Against the number, Alabama has taken 5 in a row in this series. That includes the Crimson Tide earning double-digit ATS margins at MSU in 2019 and 2021.
UA is going to continue to want to run the ball, and expect a few big plays in that department against this shaky Bulldogs defense that has been decent against the run, but against a couple of lackluster rushing teams. And Alabama should find success in the air against a pass defense that has been torched.
Look for an Alabama team adjusting to its quarterbacking and line play — and play-calling — to be more efficient in early downs and more consistent in cranking out value drives.
BACK THE CRIMSON TIDE -14.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The side of the ball where Alabama has produced consistent results so far is on defense. And this total has dropped a couple of points — over a key number — during the week.
But Mississippi State’s Week 3 game against LSU figures as a decent comp here. Despite going 3 of 13 on 3rd downs, the Bulldogs still managed 14 points. And LSU got to 41 points without any garbage-time add-on or turnover dominance.
Zag, bettors! Zag! TAKE THE OVER 46.5 (-110).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]
