Tag: Compensatory Picks

Projecting the Vikings’ compensatory draft picks for 2021

See the Minnesota Vikings’ projected compensatory draft picks for the upcoming 2021 NFL draft.

Minnesota already has 10 draft picks for the 2021 NFL draft and due to compensatory picks, more could be on the way.

According to Over The Cap, Minnesota is projected to receive a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick for compensatory selections (H/T Daily Norseman).

On account of Trae Waynes’ free agency departure last offseason, Minnesota is projected to receive the fourth-round pick. Mackensie Alexander leaving leads to the Vikings getting the projected sixth-round pick.

Minnesota has another important draft coming up, with certain key veterans possibly being cap casualties this offseason. Like Justin Jefferson and Cameron Dantzler, there should be some rookies who may jump right into a starting role for the upcoming season.

The more draft picks, the better chance the Vikings have of landing game-changing talent. Compensatory picks would certainly help.

Colts not projected to receive compensatory draft pick

Indy not projected to receive a compensatory pick.

We know how much the Indianapolis Colts love their draft picks but it appears they won’t be getting a compensatory selection in the upcoming 2021 NFL draft.

Though it isn’t official, the Colts aren’t projected to receive a compensatory pick for April’s draft, according to Over The Cap.

Even with the Colts not being a team that spends big in free agency, they did so in 2020 by bringing in quarterback Philip Rivers on a one-year deal. That, coupled with the fact that they didn’t lose any major free agents, is likely to result in the Colts not getting an extra pick in Rounds 3–7 of the draft.

However, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected to receive a third-round compensatory pick thanks to the Colts signing Rivers to a one-year deal in free agency.

This was to be expected for the Colts given their actions in free agency and it seems unlikely they will be one of the teams to get an extra pick in the upcoming draft.

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Free agent market changes on Monday, could push Lions to sign players

Everson Griffen, Paul Richardson among the top targets still out there

Monday is a big day for the remaining free agents thanks to a quirk in the NFL calendar. Up until 4 p.m. ET on Monday, players who get signed as veteran free agents still count against the compensatory draft pick formula for the 2021 NFL Draft. After that deadline, they don’t impact the formula for their new team.

What that means in more plain terms: If you’ve lost a player to free agency and have a likely comp pick coming as a result, signing a player after 4 p.m. will no longer count against the lost player. In Lions terms, the team should expect a late-round comp pick for losing Graham Glasgow in free agency, but signing players before 4 p.m. counts against what Glasgow signed for in Denver in the formula.

Because the Lions were net spenders in free agency with Hal Vaitai, Jamie Collins and others costing more than the departing free agents like Glasgow earned with their new teams, it creates a market for Detroit to sign players before 4 p.m. on Monday while other teams are waiting it out so they don’t lose comp pick value.

The remaining free agent pool is pretty shallow but does feature some players who could help the Lions. Among them:

EDGE Everson Griffen

DE Jadeveon Clowney

EDGE Clay Matthews

CB Logan Ryan

CB Darqueze Dennard

CB Brandon Carr

WR Paul Richardson

WR Taylor Gabriel

S Tony Jefferson

S Reshad Jones

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Chiefs projected to receive 2 compensatory picks in 2021 NFL Draft

The Chiefs will have eight draft picks in 2021 if these projections hold true.

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The Kansas City Chiefs went into the 2020 NFL Draft with only five picks and they ended up making six selections. In 2021, Chiefs fans can expect them to start off with more picks, at least for now anyway.

Starting at 4 p.m. ET on Monday, all free agent signings and departures will no longer count toward the NFL’s compensatory pick formula. That means if the Chiefs go out and sign a big-name free agent, like Jadeveon Clowney for instance, he will no longer have any impact on the compensatory picks that the Chiefs are set to receive. Conversely, It also means that if someone goes out and signs Darron Lee or one of the other remaining Chiefs free agents, they won’t add to the bounty of compensatory picks for 2021.

So how many compensatory picks art the Chiefs projected to receive in 2021? According to Nick Korte at OverTheCap, there will be a fourth-round pick for Kendall Fuller’s contract and a fifth-round pick for Emmanuel Ogbah’s contract. That brings the pick total in the 2021 NFL Draft for Kansas City up to eight. Check it out:

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The Chiefs don’t have a sixth-round pick in 2021 anymore because they used that pick on Saturday, to trade back into the seventh-round with the Titans, and select Tulane CB BoPete Keyes.

Now, I prefaced this article by saying these are the picks Kansas City has for now. It’s important to remember that the reason the Chiefs had five picks in 2020, to begin with, is that Brett Veach traded their sixth and seventh-round picks for Jordan Lucas and Darron Lee respectively. It wouldn’t surprise me if Veach attempted to acquire another veteran player ahead of the start of the 2021 season.

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2021 NFL Draft: Saints projected to add multiple compensatory picks

The analysts at Over The Cap project the New Orleans Saints to receive two compensatory picks in the 2021 NFL Draft.

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The New Orleans Saints have rarely qualified for compensatory draft picks since Sean Payton was hired to take over the team, owing to their always-aggressive approach in free agency to acquire veterans and eliminate roster needs before the draft. But that strategy changed in the 2020 offseason, and the Saints now stand to reap the benefits in 2021.

It’s difficult to pin down an exact process behind the NFL’s allotment for compensatory draft picks, which focuses on average annual salary as well as in-season playing time and postseason accolades like Pro Bowl appearances and All-Pro recognition.

But the analysts at Over The Cap have come closest to matching the NFL’s results, and they project the Saints to add two draft picks to their 2021 haul: third-rounder for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and a sixth-round pick for linebacker A.J. Klein. The Saints canceled out their loss of safety Vonn Bell by adding wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders.

However, the Saints could qualify for another compensatory pick if cornerback Eli Apple signs with another team at a high enough salary. The one-year, $6 million deal he agreed to with the Las Vegas Raiders would have given the Saints another sixth-round pick, but he backed out of negotiations when the Raiders failed to seal the deal. Now back on the market in free agency, it’s uncertain whether Apple will get another offer of that magnitude.

There’s some confusion about safety Malcolm Jenkins, whose 2020 option was not picked up by the Philadelphia Eagles before he signed with the Saints. In the past, that would not have been treated the same as if Philadelphia had cut him outright, but the new collective bargaining agreement may have changed things. For now, the Over The Cap crew isn’t expecting him to factor in. But if Jenkins is counted against the Saints, he would wipe out their sixth-round compensatory pick for Klein.

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Vikings could receive two to four compensatory picks for 2021 Draft

It seems likely that Minnesota will receive a few compensatory picks in 2021.

The Vikings have seen a lot of veteran talent sign elsewhere, which means the team will get some help in compensatory picks next season.

The Star Tribune reported that the Vikings could receive two to four compensatory picks after losing the following qualified free agents: cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander, defensive end Stephen Weatherly, and safeties Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse.

Over The Cap listed the Vikings’ potential to receive compensatory picks as high. It also projected that Minnesota would receive three compensatory picks for the 2021 season.

The Michael Pierce signing is projected to nullify Stephen Weatherly’s departure, per Over The Cap.

This season, Minnesota received three compensatory draft picks for the 2020 draft. It helped raise the team’s total to 12 picks, after the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs and a seventh-rounder for three 2020 draft picks and one in 2021.  It looks like Minnesota could see similar results for compensatory picks next season.

Packers projected to get mid-round compensatory picks for Blake Martinez, Bryan Bulaga

The Packers will likely get a pair of mid-round picks in 2021 for losing Blake Martinez and Bryan Bulaga in free agency.

Barring any future dips into unrestricted free agency, the Green Bay Packers will likely get a pair of mid-round compensatory picks in the 2021 draft in return for losing linebacker Blake Martinez and right tackle Bryan Bulaga during free agency.

According to Nick Korte of Over the Cap, the Packers are currently projected to receive a fourth-round compensatory pick for both Martinez, who agreed to sign with the New York Giants, and Bulaga, who agreed to sign with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Packers are also projected to receive a sixth-round pick for linebacker Kyler Fackrell, who also signed with the Giants.

The calculations and projections could change as new players are signed to big deals.

Despite signing linebacker Christian Kirksey and offensive tackle Rick Wagner, neither player counts against the Packers’ compensatory pick formula because both were released by their respective team.

The Packers can alter their formula by signing an unrestricted free agent or two over the next couple of days or weeks, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely that GM Brian Gutekunst will be able to sign a high-value free agent. More than likely, the Packers will dip into the second or third wave of free agency to add some veteran value to the roster.

The Packers haven’t received a compensatory pick since 2018. Each of the last two years, Gutekunst’s spending in free agency took the Packers out of the hunt for extra picks the following year.

So far, the Packers have essentially traded Martinez and Bulaga for Kirkey, Wagner and two mid-round picks in 2021, all while saving precious cap space in 2020. Will the trade-off work out on the field? Time will tell, but the Packers should benefit both financially and in draft capital.

Bears looking at three 6th-round compensatory picks for 2021

The Bears have lost some valuable players to free agency. But they’re not without their potential compensation.

The Bears have lost some valuable players to free agency. But they’re not without their potential compensation.

According to Over The Cap, the Bears are currently looking at a projection of three sixth-round compensatory picks for 2021.

Those come courtesy of new contracts for defensive lineman Nick Williams, inside linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis and quarterback Chase Daniel.

Williams will sign a two-year deal worth $10 million with the Lions, which will keep him int he NFC North. Pierre-Louis landed with the Redskins, where he’s set to make $3.45 million.

Meanwhile, Daniel continues to navigate the NFL better than any back-up ever. He’s set to sign a three-year deal with the Lions that will give him $13 million.

The Bears were previous projected to land a fifth-round compensatory pick for inside linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, who agreed to terms with the Raiders. But the signing of All-Pro pass rusher Robert Quinn negated that compensatory selection.

Chicago earned one fourth-round compensatory pick for 2020 for safety Adrian Amos, who signed with the Packers last offseason.

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Saints free agent A.J. Klein agrees to terms on three-year contract with Bills

The Buffalo Bills agreed to terms on a three-year free agent contract with New Orleans Saints starting strong side linebacker A.J. Klein.

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The New Orleans Saints lost starting linebacker A.J. Klein to the Buffalo Bills, who agreed to a contract offer worth $18 million over the next three years (carrying $9.7 million in guarantees), per Sirius XM NFL Radio’s Adam Caplan. Klein had mainly played on the strong side for the Saints, but started most of the 2019 season next to Demario Davis in nickel sets, which the Saints typically use more often than their base 4-3 defense.

It’s a nice payday for Klein, who first joined the Saints three years as a free agent pickup from the NFC South-rival Carolina Panthers. Now he’s reunited with his former defensive coordinator in Bills coach Sean McDermott, and will get to play next to a talented young linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds.

This is also something of a big loss for the Saints, having earlier whiffed on recruiting New England Patriots free agent Jamie Collins (who agreed to terms with the Detroit Lions). Now, the Saints must wait and see whether Alex Anzalone or Kiko Alonso can remain healthy for 16 games next to Davis, or else pursue another veteran free agent.

It’s worth noting that Klein leaves as an unrestricted free agent before the Saints have signed any new additions of their own. This means that they will now qualify for a compensatory pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, valued approximately as a sixth-round selection. Of course, the Saints are always more aggressive in free agency than expected, so this should change soon.

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Compensatory pick history proves they’re basically worthless for the Lions

The Detroit Lions are much better at signing free agents than they are at using compensatory draft picks from not signing them

Earlier this week the NFL revealed the compensatory picks for the 2020 NFL Draft. As expected, the Detroit Lions did not get any comp picks. When teams spend more in free agency than what the departing free agents from the team earn on the open market, there is no compensation balance needed.

Even when the Lions have received comp picks in the past, they’ve not come anywhere close to as valuable as the free agents who left Detroit.

Take the last time the Lions received comp picks, 2016. In return for Ndamukong Suh signing with Miami and Nick Fairley moving to New Orleans as free agents, the Lions got the No. 95 pick and the No. 210 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The first pick became Graham Glasgow, the second Jimmy Landes.

Those are the only comp picks of the Bob Quinn era, where signing free agents from other teams has dramatically outpaced what ex-Lions have immediately received on the free agent market.

Glasgow emerged as a quality starter on the offensive interior, but that’s not an impact position like Suh. Granted Suh wound up being radically overpaid by Miami and the Dolphins are still paying the price for that, but Ndamukong Suh is more important to a team than Graham Glasgow. Anyone who argues otherwise will gladly buy your oceanfront property in Oklahoma.

Glasgow might be the most successful comp pick in Lions history, which dates back to the origins of the compensatory pick system in the 1990s. Cornerback Nevin Lawson (2014) and DE Devin Taylor (2013) are the only other players drafted by the Lions with comp picks that ever started a game for the team.

Far more of the Lions comp pick history resembles the Jimmy Landes experience. Landes, a long snapper from Baylor, never played a down for the Lions. That’s true for more than half the players on the list below, courtesy Draft History:

None of the first six players, all taken in the 1990s when the franchise was a regular playoff participant, ever made the Lions…or any NFL roster. Dan Gronkowski and Alfonso Boone had careers with other teams after quickly washing out of Detroit.

Now consider comp picks are earned by not spending on free agents from the outside. Would you rather have had Glover Quin, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Reggie Bush, Trey Flowers or any other long-term Lions stalwarts or the comp picks that would have come from not signing them?

Don’t sweat the lack of compensatory picks. They’ve been almost completely pointless to the Detroit Lions.