The Saints managed to nearly pull off a win behind Spencer Rattler in Week 15’s second half, but should he get the remaining three starts of the season?
The New Orleans Saints had a very interesting quarterback scenario unfold in their Week 15 loss to the Washington Commanders. Jake Haener started things off, getting his first career start in the NFL, and he looked pretty rough for the 21 snaps he got on offense.
He went 4-for-10 on completions for 49 yards with an interception and picked up 7 yards on a scramble, but was sacked 3 times for a loss of 29 yards. This resulted in a 2.3 QB rating and a 16.2 passer efficiency rating. For context, a PER for not completing a single pass would be 39.6.
On the other hand, Spencer Rattler came in at halftime and got 34 snaps, going 10-of-21 for 135 yards and a touchdown, with an 81.0 QBR and an 84.4 passer efficiency rating. On top of that, when looking at the final drive where the Saints scored a touchdown and had a chance to win the game, he was 5-for-6 for 26 yards and a touchdown, 5-for-7 if you want to include the two-point conversion (though that was a strong throw regardless).
So, now the Saints have a decision to make. Do they stick with the guy they went into the game with, and see if he can improve enough to keep the job, or should they give it to the metaphorical hot hand and see if he has improved from his three starts earlier this season. Obviously this is presuming Derek Carr is out for the year, which seems likely as the Saints would prefer to let him heal and be ready for his spring medical evaluation which will determine his guarantees on his contract. If he fails, he would receive the $30 million guaranteed no matter what, which is less than optimal even if they want to stick with him next season.
In my opinion, you have nothing to lose at this point if you are the Saints, so letting Rattler get some more NFL experience is not a bad thing at all. Giving him a chance to prepare over the course of the week to start this game would likely result in an even better outcome. The difficulty is Rattler would be playing an away game at the Green Bay Packers, and if current weather projections are anything to go off of, it will be somewhere between 16 and 23 degrees out with a 6% chance of snow.
That’s asking a lot of anyone, but especially so with Rattler and Haener. But Rattler proved to be the safer option in this game, not taking a sack after it was an issue earlier in the season with him, and not turning the ball over at all. So I would say you go with Rattler this week and just see what he can do with this matchup.
The result carries significant weight, but so does the Badgers’ form in the win. The team crossed the 100-point mark against a power conference opponent for the first time since 1993. It was an offensive display that would’ve seemed impossible for previous Wisconsin teams — even from those just a few years ago.
Everything about the win is a direct testament to the job done by Greg Gard leading the program forward amid changes to the sport’s landscape.
First, the Badgers attempted 27 3-pointers and 25 2-pointers, making 12 and 13, respectively. That new analytics-driven offensive approach has revolutionized the offense, a portion of the program that was in disarray as recently as two years ago. Gard’s hire of assistant Kirk Penney and willingness to evolve are at the heart of the change.
Next, Gard continues to score big by landing underrated players in the transfer portal. Last year, it was A.J. Storr and Max Klesmit. This year, John Tonje already looks like the steal of the offseason. His 41 points and program-record 21 free throws on 22 attempts powered Wisconsin’s win. Despite losing high-profile players Storr and Chucky Hepburn to the portal, Gard has given a blueprint of how traditionally-developmental programs can thrive in the current era.
Third, Wisconsin is still defined by its same identity, led by a culture of player development and buy-in. Max Klesmit and Kamari McGee embody that culture. McGee especially, who joined the Badgers after one year at UW-Green Bay without any playing time assurances. He’s taken substantial leaps each season and is now a key cog in the team’s rotation.
While it sounds cliche, that identity of development flies directly in the face of the modern age of the sport. But it has always defined Wisconsin basketball, and continues to do so.
Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard is shown during the second half of their game Friday, November 15, 2024 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin.Unranked Wisconsin upset Arizona 103-88. Mark Hoffman/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
Gard has done more to improve the program than just those three focuses listed. But when discussing why Wisconsin scored 103 points in a signature win over No. 9 Arizona, those three are driving reasons — a new-age offensive approach, effective transfer portal recruiting and the same culture of development.
In other words, Gard recognized where the program had fallen behind after it missed the 2023 NCAA Tournament (offense). He rebuilt the offense that offseason, leading to a top-25 unit in 2023-24. Early signs in 2024-25 point to even further improvement. He’s done it all while maintaining Wisconsin’s age-old identity.
The football program should take notice of the basketball program’s success.
Wisconsin athletic director Chris McIntosh took a big risk in shaking up the program by hiring up-and-coming coach Luke Fickell in 2022. That hire still makes sense, even with the benefit of hindsight. Fickell was among the hottest names in the profession, was succeeding at a Group of Five school and had extensive Big Ten ties. Gard’s success doesn’t make McIntosh’s hire of Fickell the wrong one.
It does, however, highlight the key differences between the programs.
Fickell’s subsequent hire of coordinator Phil Longo took Wisconsin away from its classic form and approach. The offense hasn’t taken a step forward since the hire. If anything, it’s regressed.
The same can arguably said for Mike Tressel’s defense.
The Badgers’ 42-10 loss at Iowa (329 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry allowed) in Week 10 was an unfortunate signal of what those changes have allowed — a further departure from the classic identity that built the program in the first place.
Wisconsin basketball made forward-thinking changes with its offensive plan. Those changes made the program an even more attractive destination for the exact type of players it needs — talented wing scorers. Tonje embodies that role. Importantly, these are players Wisconsin clearly has the ability to land; it has landed several in a row with Johnny Davis, Storr and now Tonje.
Most importantly, amid that plan to grow and evolve, the program’s identity didn’t change.
Wisconsin football attempted those same changes, designed to make the program an attractive destination for the nation’s top talent. The problem: Wisconsin doesn’t land that top talent. Longo’s offense likely will not reach its heights unless Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams, Travis Hunter, Drake Maye or Arch Manning walk through the door. That just isn’t a very realistic outcome.
Then in attempting those changes, the program appears to have sacrificed its age-old identity. Fans of the current football coaching staff or not, it’s hard to argue against that reality. Barry Alvarez himself didn’t argue it when given the chance on radio last week.
So whatever follows this offseason, coaching changes or not, Wisconsin football should take notes from the basketball program. Evolving doesn’t just mean changing, it means finding ways to grow on the same foundation upon which the house is built.
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Head coaches have been described in many ways, but Darren Rizzi may be the first to be compared to a Sour Patch Kid:
We’ve heard NFL head coaches be described in a few different ways, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s description of Darren Rizzi has to be one of the more unique descriptions in recent memory.
In a sitdown interview with Kay Adams, Valdes-Scantling compared the New Orleans Saints interim head coach to a Sour Patch Kid.Yes, the candy that’s sour then sweet. Instead of being sour and sweet, Rizzi possesses that same duality but in a different way. Valdes-Scantling described it as being “Fiery one second then he’s cool the next second.”
As funny as it is, it’s also a great representation of Rizzi’s personality. This comes from a player who has only been in New Orleans for two weeks. It’s a short time, but the wide receiver says Rizzi has “been the same guy every single day.”
When changing roles from coordinator to head coach, it’s easy to take on a new personality when your amount of power changes. That didn’t happen with Rizzi. He remained genuine the whole time.
Drew Brees recently shared his thoughts on Spencer Rattler, who he compared to another rookie quarterback. Brees sees some similarities with Bo Nix:
The Saints haven’t had nearly the success at quarterback to be desired since the retirement of legendary signal-caller Drew Brees, and only ahead of the loss to the Panthers did New Orleans get its starter back.
Before veteran Derek Carr was able to return to the field after missing weeks of action due to injury, the team leaned into rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler.
Brees recently weighed in on Rattler, also comparing him in some ways to Denver quarterback Bo Nix.
“I think there’s a lot of similarities between Spencer Rattler and Bo Nix. They’re both really athletic guys. The Saints were under center a lot more. I think that’s how they set up their run game and their play action. Spencer Rattler was on the move so much, throws the ball and runs very well – very similar to Bo. I think where both of those guys will need to make strides – just as any young player – is in the drawback passing game.”
Rattler finished out his most recent appearance, the 26-8 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in which he was benched, 12 for 24 passing for 156 yards. While he has had his bright moments, the former Oklahoma and South Carolina quarterback has had a rough go of it in his first year in the NFL.
It will be interesting to watch what the Saints do at backup quarterback moving forward, especially in the event that Carr is to go down again this season, but there’s no question that Rattler was put in a tough situation when he was unexpectedly thrown into the fire like this.
Regardless, the Saints’ main focus right now is on the big picture, and that starts with snapping a seven-game losing streak. New Orleans will attempt to take their first hack at that when the Atlanta Falcons head to to New Orleans next Sunday.
Former Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen recently received his official invite to the 2024 NFL combine. The former Badger declared for
Former Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen recently received his official invite to the 2024 NFL combine. The former Badger declared for the 2024 NFL draft in November after the team’s regular season, and he is projected to be a fourth- or fifth-round pick.
With the end of the NFL season comes the start of draft preparation, which leads most NFL writers to start generating comparisons for the upcoming draft prospects. Allen received one earlier this week: Packers running back A.J. Dillon.
The comparison makes sense on the surface. Allen is a larger back with a bruising running style, just like Dillon. The two have had their ups and downs — Allen with injuries and Dillon with inconsistent effectiveness — but each presents clear value to an NFL offense: a powerful runner that can wear down defenses and excel in short-yardage situations.
Now, Allen is the faster of the two and may have a higher ceiling. But Dillon is already a four-year NFL veteran with clear staying power. The former Wisconsin running back still has much to prove in that respect.
Allen is off to the NFL after a successful college career that included 597 carries, 3494 yards and 35 touchdowns. He finished his career in ninth place on Wisconsin’s all-time rushing leader board.
I’d argue the professional career of Dillon would be a success for Allen at this stage in the draft process.
Do the Saints have the least-desirable offensive coordinator opening in 2024? Let’s look at the remaining vacancies and compare:
Teams in the NFL tell you a lot of things by how they spends their money, but that’s also true of the hiring pool. The best candidates for, say, an open offensive coordinator job are going to quickly cut a deal with the best opportunities for success. If a team doesn’t look like a good landing spot, it won’t attract good candidates.
So, no: it’s clear by now that the New Orleans Saints are not seen as one of the best opportunities for coaches looking to call plays as an offensive coordinator. If that were the case they would have landed one of the best candidates like Shane Waldron (who picked the Chicago Bears instead) or Zac Robinson (who preferred his fit with the Atlanta Falcons).
Every situation is different. Some coaches may feel differently about some teams than others. How they would rank the remaining openings — including the Saints — differs from one candidate to the next. It’s possible that some coaches look at New Orleans and decide they have a better chance of success somewhere else. But the difference can’t be that great. Let’s take a look at what each of the remaining vacancies has to offer:
#Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ playoff resume is striking when compared to other contending signal calllers around the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance in the playoffs is well documented, and as the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to play the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football, his resume in elimination games stands along among other contenders around the NFL.
FS1 pundit Nick Wright broke down Mahomes’ playoff track record on Twitter ahead of the highly anticipated matchup, noting that the reigning MVP has more wins than the rest of the field combined.
While this doesn’t guarantee that Kansas City will find success in the playoffs this season, the comparison of Mahomes to his contemporaries is striking. Few players in NFL history are as accomplished as the Chiefs’ signal caller, and in just his sixth year as Kansas City’s starting quarterback, Mahomes stands alone as the league’s preeminent passer.
His chances of securing the Chiefs a top seed in the AFC playoffs will be given a boost if he can propel Kansas City to victory against the Eagles tonight.
By The Numbers: Comparing Saints QB Derek Carr to his predecessor Andy Dalton
We saw a lot of raised eyebrows and questioning takes from the pro football world when the New Orleans Saints announced a four-year contract with Derek Carr valued at up to $150 million, an average annual payout of $37.5 million. That number ranked tenth among NFL quarterbacks at the time of signing, and it’s since fallen to 13th around the league after a couple of young pros signed lucrative extensions.
But Carr has not played like the 13th-best quarterback in the game. He ranks 17th in passer rating (89.8), 20th in ESPN’s quarterback rating (50.7), and 16th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.96), a metric which accounts for touchdown passes, interceptions, and sacks relative to passing yards and attempts. His passing grade at Pro Football focus ranks 23th (67.5). At best, you could argue Carr is playing like a league-average quarterback, but the numbers suggest he’s closer to mediocre, and that’s certainly what the viewing experience has felt like each week.
Let’s go back to that $37.5 million figure. The Saints paid Carr so highly because they believed he would be a big upgrade over Andy Dalton, the veteran backup who surprised everyone by starting 14 games last year after Jameis Winston was injured, and who received just $3 million from the Saints in his one-year contract. They could have paid 12.5 Andy Daltons for the price of one Derek Carr.
So has Carr been 12.5 times better than Carr? It’s a little premature to compare them head-to-head with Dalton having started 14 games last year and Carr just 10 games into his Saints career, but there’s enough data to work with to analyze some trends. So how do they stack up against each other?
Carr is averaging more passing yards per game (223.1) than Dalton’s pace last season (205.1), but that’s because he’s also throwing more often. He’s clocking 33.4 pass attempts per game against Dalton’s 27. Dalton had a slightly better completion percentage (66.7%) than Carr (65.9%) while averaging a full yard more per attempt (7.6) than Carr (6.7).
One thing Carr has done better than Dalton is protect the football. He’s thrown just four interceptions (1.2% of his attempts), turning the ball over at half the rate Dalton did (nine interceptions; 2.4% of his passes). But Carr has fumbled four times this season, losing the ball twice, while Dalton fumbled five times last year, losing once. Altogether that’s 6 turnovers for Carr in 10 games and 10 giveaways for Dalton in 14 games.
Last year, the Saints ranked 21st in red zone efficiency (521.%), with 25 of their 48 drives into the opposing 20-yard line ending in touchdowns. They’ve regressed this year with Carr at quarterback, posting the 24th-ranked red zone conversion rate (48.6%) while going 17-of-35. Poor execution in scoring position was a major criticism of Carr throughout his Raiders career, and those issues — questionable decision-making, inaccurate passes, and folding under pressure — have continued in New Orleans.
What’s more distressing is that Carr hasn’t hit the big plays outside the red zone, either. He’s thrown 8 of his 10 touchdown passes in the red zone. In his career he’s thrown about 35% of his touchdown passes from outside the red zone, out in the open field. This year he’s done so just twice. Even Dalton was able to hit on those deep touchdown passes from outside the 20-yard line last year (7 of 18; 38% of them).
That’s inexcusable for a quarterback with Carr’s experience and some of the best young deep threats in the game available to him. It’s past time he figure out whatever chemistry issues are putting a rift between him and Chris Olave. Rashid Shaheed deserves even more touches than he’s getting. Juwan Johnson has been a non-factor after breaking out last season with Dalton under center. At least Carr is throwing to Alvin Kamara more frequently, but it’s come at a detriment to his downfield weapons.
Carr is the veteran in the room, the Pro Bowl quarterback with 153 starts behind him. It’s past time he play like it. Or else it’s going to seem increasingly certain that the Saints miscalculated what he would bring to the table. If he can’t outperform Dalton, it’s worth asking whether they should have even made a switch to Carr, much less overpaid him so badly.
How NFL draft trade value charts graded the Saints-Bears deal for Old Dominion right tackle Nick Saldiveri:
The New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears completed a surprise trade in the minutes leading up to the fourth round of the 2023 NFL draft, which helped the Saints vault up the board while the Bears moved down a dozen spots (adding a fifth-round pick for their trouble). New Orleans selected Old Dominion right tackle Nick Saldiveri with their new pick.
So how did the various NFL draft trade value charts floating around grade this move? Legendary coach Jimmy Johnson is credited for first introducing the model that all others are based off of, but these days there are multiple variants to consider. Teams use their own models so there’s some variance from one war room to the next. Let’s see what they made of the Saints-Bears trade:
Dennis Allen has a smart player comparison for Khalen Saunders, offering a throwback to his early days in New Orleans: Hollis Thomas
What are the New Orleans Saints getting in Khalen Saunders? The big defensive tackle was one of their first free agent signings this offseason, and head coach Dennis Allen has a smart comparison in mind. When asked for his thoughts on the team’s pickup, he offered a throwback to his early days in New Orleans.
“Khalen Saunders reminds me a lot of Hollis Thomas,” Allen said at NFL owners meetings in Phoenix this week. “Kind of a big square body, athletic, can move. Good run stopper but yet some sneaky pass-rush ability. The ability to push the pocket inside. I think he can help us in that regard. Maybe slightly more athletic than what we saw with Shy.”
“Tank” Thomas wasn’t quite as big as Saunders — the Saints listed him at 6-flat and 306 pounds; Saunders tips the scales at 324 — but it’s a good comparison. He joined the Saints as a veteran in 2006 and started 30 of the 38 games he played in black and gold, ultimately seeing 1,259 snaps across his three-year run in New Orleans. He averaged about 33 snaps per game and was active defending the run as well as the pass. Pro Football Focus charting found he generated 32 pressures in that time, with the NFL officially crediting him with 6.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. If Saunders can return similar production, Allen and the team probably feel great about the move.
And like Saunders, Hollis had a big personality. He was known as an always-positive, charismatic face in the locker room. A former undrafted free agent who got his first break in the NFL by sending his highlight tape to all 30 teams at the time (his career began in 1996, before the league expanded to 32 franchises in 2003) while a student at Northern Illinois.
Thomas recounted the story to PhiladelphiaEagles.com’s Jim Gehman in 2021: “I got the audio-visual department to make me one. It wasn’t too long and it wasn’t too short. I was just trying to give them pretty much a highlight of what I do in games. … I talked to (former Eagles head coach) Ray Rhodes before I committed to come here. And one of the things that Ray told me was if I came and did the things that I did in college, that I will make the team. No ifs, ands, or buts.”
Like Thomas was before him, he’s going to be a key piece of the New Orleans defensive line at a pivotal moment in franchise history. After working hard to recruit free agent quarterback Derek Carr and coming off their first losing season in seven years, it’s vital that Saunders helps the Saints shake back and chase an NFC South title. We’ll see if he has it in him.
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