The Oregon Ducks odds to win the national championship went down after their close victory over Wisconsin in Week 12.
The Oregon Ducks didn’t earn any style points on Saturday night with their 16-13 win over the Wisconsin Badgers, but they didn’t need them to keep the national championship dreams alive in Eugene.
While there were a lot of things to improve upon in Week 12, Oregon now heads into a much-needed bye week with a chance to get healthy and prepare for the finals stretch run of the season, where a trip to the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff are well within reach.
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the race for a playoff spot is heating up, with potential championship contenders trying to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. The Ducks are certainly among those championship contenders, standing as one of only three teams with an undefeated record in the Power 4.
With that path ahead, how do their national championship odds weigh out? Let’s take a look at the latest numbers, according to BetMGM.
The odds will undoubtedly shift again over the coming weeks as we get ready for some big-time conference games.
If the Ducks can continue to take care of business in games where they’re favored, though, then Oregon should stay near the top of the odds board entering December.
Safe to say, they answered convincingly, winning 31-17 versus the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers. In the first quarter, it was looking bleak when the Volunteers went up 10-0, but quarterback Carson Beck rattled off two dimes in the end zone to Oscar Delp to make it 14-10.
Tennessee countered with a Dylan Sampson rushing touchdown and Georgia was able to get a field goal to deadlock it at 17-17 at halftime. The Georgia defense shutout the Volunteer in the second half and the Georgia offense played in control the rest of the way, with Beck and stud freshman Nate Frazier running in one touchdown each to reach the final score.
Carson Beck was hyper-efficient in this one, passing for 347 yards and two touchdowns on 40 attempts. Most importantly, he had no turnovers, something that has plagued him all season against the SEC. He also ran in a touchdown for good measure.
Beck helped to offset a mediocre Georgia running game. Nate Frazier, who has been filling in as the lead running back with Trevor Etienne out, recorded 68 yards on 19 carries and scored a touchdown. Frazier’s touchdown made the game out of reach for the Vols late in the fourth.
The defense also showed out in the second half. The run-defense looked ugly in the first, letting up big runs to Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson, but by the second half, they took advantage of Georgia’s offense forcing Tennessee to pass more often. The pass rush got five sacks, including a strip sack on Nico Iamaleava to end the game.
Georgia now rises to 8-2 and finishes their SEC schedule with a 6-2 record. They seemingly control their destiny to make the playoff and could have an outside chance of making the SEC championship if they win out and Alabama loses next week. Tennessee, meanwhile, falls to 8-2, and while they are far from out of the playoff, they’re now in the mosh pit of two-loss teams in the SEC (Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia).
Here are four key takeaways from Georgia’s win over Tennessee:
Georgia’s offense was insanely efficient
Georgia Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo arrives with the team before the start of the G-Day spring football game in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, April 13, 2024.
Part of the problem with Mike Bobo’s offense has been turnovers. The Georgia offense had committed 15 turnovers since playing SEC opponents, including 11 in the last four matchups. A lot of those were from Carson Beck Turnovers have been a killer for the Bulldogs for a long time, and the hope was that if Georgia could decrease their turnovers per game, their offense would wake up again.
Mike Bobo’s offensive was super efficient in this regard. The Georgia offense did well in taking what the Tennessee defense gave them, and as a result, Georgia mustered four long, time-consuming drives that spanned over 75 yards, including one touchdown drive that spanned 92 yards.
Carson Beck spread the wealth
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
In the midst of a disappointing season for Carson Beck, he finally looked like a first-round draft pick. A big part of it was spreading the wealth to Georgia’s playmakers. Tight end Oscar Delp had the best game in his career, totaling 56 receiving yards and two touchdowns on four receptions. Vanderbilt transfer London Humphreys also shined as a deep threat with 63 yards on three receptions.
Overall, Georgia had five players with over 50 receiving yards in this game.
Georgia’s pass rush is the catalyst
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
The biggest catalyst for Georgia winning games has been their pass rush. The Bulldogs have so many dynamic players on their front seven and it showed against Tennessee.
Chaz Chambliss sacked Nico Iamaleava twice and he now has 4.5 sacks this month, which is outrageous. Smael Mondon Jr. looks fully healthy. He led the team in tackles with eight and picked up both a sack and a tackle for loss. Damon Wilson II had the most notable play of the bunch, strip sacking Iamaleava to end the game.
Overall, when this Georgia pass rush is firing on all cylinders, they’re almost unstoppable, and this week proved it.
Georgia controls its own destiny
Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
With this win, the Bulldogs are more than likely rewarded a playoff spot. They’ll obviously need to win out, but if they do, they’ll be guaranteed a playoff spot, since they’ve already won against two top-10 teams. This win also means that Georgia can make a run at the SEC championship.
It looks like the winner of Texas A&M or Texas will represent the “home team” in the SEC (unless the winner loses their Week 14 matchup), but if Alabama loses to Oklahoma, Georgia would only have to worry about Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee. Georgia and Texas A&M would rank above Ole Miss and Tennessee due to conference opponent win percentage, and Georgia would rank above Texas A&M due to a common-games tiebreaker.
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Safe to say, Georgia is still very much alive in the SEC, and rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The Georgia Bulldogs rise in Joel Klatt’s newest rankings, but are still ranked behind four Big Ten teams
Fox Sports college football expert Joel Klatt released his top 10 college football rankings after an interesting Week 12 produce massive shakeups in the SEC and the Big 12.
Week 12 featured an SEC heavyweight bout between the No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs and the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers. In a potential elimination game, the Georgia Bulldogs won 31-17 by shutting out the Vols in the second half. Carson Beck had one of his best games of the season, 347 yards and two touchdowns, and the UGA pass rush racked up five sacks.
The Bulldogs rose to No. 6 thanks to the win, while Tennessee fell to No. 9, where Georgia was previously ranked.
The Big 12 featured a major upset in the Kansas-BYU game. The BYU Cougars were looking to keep their undefeated season alive against the Kansas Jayhawks (3-6), who were considered inferior competition. Instead, they received a rude awakening, stunningly losing 17-13. Kansas scored the go-ahead touchdown with 13:19 left. Even with three drives and plenty of time, BYU couldn’t muster anything other than two punts and a turnover on downs. BYU falls out of Joel Klatt’s rankings, and BYU is tied with Colorado for the best conference record in the Big 12.
With the third College Football Playoff rankings coming on Nov. 19, there’s more urgency to lock in a playoff spot. Oregon has more than likely earned a spot, finishing 8-0 in the Big Ten even if it looked sloppy against Wisconsin (5-5). Notre Dame will more than likely earn a playoff spot if it beats Army. Georgia did great work in making sure it is in perfect position for a spot, too.
Tennessee, meanwhile, could slide out of the playoff bracket just as Georgia did last week, opening the door for SMU, Texas A&M or Colorado to take the final spot.
Next week will be huge for the Big Ten. Undefeated Indiana heads to Columbus to play the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Big 12 also might have some big changes. BYU plays Arizona State, a much more difficult opponent than Kansas.
A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
There are just two weeks between us and the end of the regular season in the college football world, and while Conference Championship games in Week 15 will decide what seeds teams get in the first expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, we will get a good sense of who should be playing in the postseason before then.
For instance, the Oregon Ducks not only virtually clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game with their 16-13 win over the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday night, but they also all but guaranteed a trip to the CFP as well, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Going into Week 13 — a much-needed bye for the Ducks — Oregon has the best odds in the nation to make it to the playoffs, with a 99.6% chance, per the FPI. The next closest team is Indiana at 96.6%, followed by Ohio State at 94.6%.
Oregon Ducks — 99.6%Indiana Hoosiers — 96.6%Ohio State Buckeyes — 94.6%Texas Longhorns — 93.7%Georgia Bulldogs — 92.0%
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game, and make it into the postseason and beyond. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 12:
Percent Chance to Win Out: 33.8%
Previous Odds: 26.8%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 38.0%
(Ohio State Conference Title Odds: 46.2%)
Previous Odds: 37.8%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 99.6%
Previous Odds: 95.3%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 19.2%
Previous Odds: 19.3%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 7.3%
Previous Odds: 7.8%
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“I respect their opinion but it’s different in our league,” said Georgia head coach Kirby Smart on the selection committee
Georgia Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart is unhappy with the College Football Playoff selection committee. Smart made that known after No. 12 Georgia’s 31-17 home win over the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers.
Smart thinks Georgia should be ranked higher than No. 12. The Bulldogs have played the toughest schedule in the country and aren’t getting much credit from the playoff selection committee.
Yes, Georgia has played inconsistently, but the Bulldogs still are 8-2 despite facing five ranked opponents and just one ranked opponent at home.
“I don’t know what they’re looking for,” said Smart on the selection committee. “I really don’t. I wish they could really define the criteria. I wish they could do the eyeball test where they come down here and look at the people we’re playing against and look at them. And you can’t see that stuff on TV.”
Entering Week 12, the Big Ten had four of the five highest ranked teams in the country. It is rare for another conference to have so many teams ranked ahead of the best teams in the SEC.
“They’re not in that environment,” said Smart on explaining Georgia’s offensive struggles against Ole Miss to the committee. “They’re not at Ole Miss in that environment playing against that defense, which is top five in the country with one of the best pass rushers in the country. And they’re fired up. They got a two-score lead, and they’re coming out to play. They don’t know, they don’t understand that.”
To be fair, it would be tough for the selection committee to pick games every week. If would seem unfair to whatever teams’ games they aren’t attending.
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“I respect their decision. I respect their opinion but it’s different in our league,” said Smart. The next playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday, Nov. 19.
A look at updated percentage chances for teams to make the College Football Playoff after Week 12.
The 2024 college football regular season has two weeks remaining. Postseason play will feature an inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
Tennessee (8-2, 5-2 SEC) is still in contention to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Vols suffered their second loss of the season in Week 12. Georgia defeated Tennessee, 31-17, in Week 12.
Following Week 12 games, ESPN’s Football Power Index updated its odds for teams to make the College Football Playoff. Tennessee has the 10th-best percentage chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Updated percentage chances to make the College Football Playoff after Week 12 (ESPN FPI)
Oregon 99.6
Indiana 96.6
Ohio State 94.6
Texas 93.7
Georgia 92.0
Penn State 88.2
Boise State 77.0
Alabama 70.7
Notre Dame 68.9
Tennessee 66.4
Miami 62.7
Ole Miss 62.1
How many teams are in the College Football Playoff?
For the first time, there will be 12 teams participating in the College Football Playoff. There are five automatic bids for each of the Power Four conference champions and one to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. The remaining seven seeds are awarded to at-large teams.
How does the College Football Playoff format work?
The top four seeds will have a bye in the first-round. The next four highest-seeded teams will host an on-campus first-round game as follows:
While Notre Dame is fighting to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation, that dream already was dead for Brian Kelly and LSU. They still could get into a decent bowl game though if they ran the table for the rest of the regular season. That won’t even happen now.
The Tigers suffered a 27-16 loss to a Florida team simply trying to get back to .500. That brought their losing streak to three, and they most certainly will drop out of the rankings now. There’s even more to this though.
With this loss, Kelly’s personal streak of seven 10-win seasons will come to an end. The last time Kelly failed to earn that distinction was during the Irish’s dreadful 2016 season in which they finished 4-8.
Kelly’s decision to bolt for Baton Rogue is looking more foolish all the time. This is the second time in three years Kelly has lost four games with the Tigers, something he didn’t do once over his final five seasons with the Irish. Does he still think he put himself in a better position to win a national championship?
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This quarter was uneventful, but that’s OK with the win.
Notre Dame didn’t need to do anything fancy to close out Virginia. Never mind that it failed to score on fourth-and-goal to cap a lengthy drive that began in the third quarter. It already had done enough to secure a 35-14 victory, which featured Tony Muskett running for a garbage-time touchdown.
Even though [autotag]Zac Yoakum[/autotag] capped another long drive by missing a 36-yard field goal, hardly anybody at Notre Dame Stadium cared at that point. The Irish were going to cap their home season with another victory. At least for the moment, the loss to Northern Illinois that happened there in September felt like a distant memory.
Obviously, Irish fans aren’t going to forget about that defeat to the Huskies entirely because it still threatens to derail their team’s chances at the College Football Playoff.
The focus now was on the seniors playing perhaps their final game in South Bend. It never is easy for Irish fans to say goodbye to those players, but all good things must end. If this is it for them at home, it was a nice way to go out.
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Notre Dame appeared to begin its Senior Day game against Virginia in exciting fashion. Former Irish running back-turned-receiver Chris Tyree muffed the opening kickoff, and the ball was scooped up by [autotag]Max Hurleman[/autotag], who ran it into the end zone. However, the ball could not be advanced because there was a muff instead of a fumble on the play.
The Irish instead had to start the game at the Cavaliers 25-yard line, but the setback proved to be temporary. The Cavaliers appeared to force a three-and-out, but a roughing the passer penalty gave the Irish a fresh set of downs from the 4. [autotag]Jeremiyah Love[/autotag] promptly scored, and the Irish had a 7-0 lead.
The first-quarter scoring halted after that though as both teams mainly had a bunch of three-and-outs with the Cavaliers turning the ball over on downs somewhere in between. At least some of that though can be attributed to the Irish’s dominant defense. They’ll need that to justify the College Football Playoff committee’s decision to include them in the rankings so far.
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It’s a big odd when an SEC analyst has high praise for a Notre Dame football team, but that is exactly what happened on Thursday.
Former Alabama quarterback [autotag]Greg McElroy[/autotag] was asked by former Georgia defensive end David Pollack if the Irish had a legit chance to win the College Football Playoff, and the answer was a resounding yes.
McElroy went over some of his criteria he’s looking for in a championship contender, which includes a quarterback that has experience, a take-over-the-game defensive line, and enough good skill position players.
While he’d rather have the skill players as wide receivers, McElroy believes the pair of backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price make up for the lack of explosiveness on the outside.
Also mentioned was the fact that tight end Mitchell Evans is coming on, and the young offensive line has made improvements over the course of the season. McElroy didn’t shy away from liking Notre Dame’s chances, which should give the Irish hope that they can make a run in the CFP.
Jan 6, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; ESPN analyst Greg McElroy talks to the media during media day before the College Football Playoff national championship game against the Michigan Wolverines at George R Brown Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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