Tag: college football picks against the spread

5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions Against The Spread: CFP Semifinals, December 30, 31 Games

5 best college football bowl predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the games on December 30th and 31st

5 best predictions for College Football Playoff Semifinals and other December 30th and 31st games. 

5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions College Football Playoff, December 30th, 31st Games

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Expert Picks Dec 28-Jan 2, NY6, CFP
Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Results So Far: 82-70-1
Bowl Season: 8-7

I was about to be more insufferable than I already am.

After a rough start to the bowl season, I was right there. My picks for the last round of games were about to be 4-1 against the spread, all I needed was one Minnesota stop in the Pinstripe against Syracuse, I got it, and … 12 men on the field flag, an Orange score on 4th and goal, just like that, I’m back to being just okay.

But in this wacky bowl season I’ll take 60% for that last run. Now it’s time to do better with five to end 2022 on a high note, starting with …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Capital One Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs Clemson

Friday, December 30, 2022, 8:00 ET, ESPN
ATS Line Clemson -6
Pick Tennessee

I’m still not sold on the Clemson secondary.

Tennessee is missing a ton. Combine that with the public having little faith in Joe Milton at quarterback, and Clemson is almost a touchdown favorite. The Tiger defensive line might have something to do with that, and overall, the losses for a team of this caliber were relatively minimal.

I’m still not sold.

Not to dog Jalin Hyatt or Cedric Tillman in any way, but I do believe Tennessee’s system has as much to do with the success – if not more – than the receivers and the parts in the roles.

I’m going with the idea that Milton can do enough with the returning receivers to hit the Tiger secondary sort of like Sam Hartman and Wake Forest did, sort of like North Carolina’s Drake Maye did – at least in terms of total yards – and sort of  like Florida State’s Jordan Travis did.

I do believe that the atmosphere in the Orange Bowl will be great, both teams will trade big offensive punches, and I’m even buying in that Clemson will probably win this.

I’ll take my chances walking into the stadium up 6-0 with the team that’s been through the SEC wars this season.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

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5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions Against The Spread December 27-29 Games

5 best college football bowl predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the first run from December 27th through the 30th? 

5 best predictions for this the early bowls. What are the best bets and picks for the bowl games from December 27th through the 30th?  

5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions December 27th-30th Games

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Expert Picks Dec 28-Jan 2, NY6, CFP
Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Results So Far: 79-68-1
Bowl Season: 5-5

I know … I KNOW.

You could flip a coin and hit .500 on your picks – we’ve proven that every year with the Clucko the Chicken selections.

Anyone can go .500. My dead grandmother could hit .500 randomly guessing pick, and make a mean pierogi while doing it. That’s not the content you’re here for.

However, I’ll take the 3-2 rally in the last batch to get me up to the 50% mark, because this bowl season is insane.

Bless your heart if you were on the wrong end of Houston -6.5 in the final moments against Louisiana your 2022 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl.

Merry Christmas to all those who assumed that a San Diego State team that held Middle Tennessee to -66 rushing yards would not only fail to cover, but lose outright.

Last second opt-outs, key players getting hurt right away, bad weather, worse play calling – welcome to the bowls so far. Almost everything we know from the regular season now means a fat load of jack squat.

But there’s a chance this might get a whole lot easier as we head into the finishing kick. There’s a better handle on who’s actually playing in these things and who isn’t. Start with that, assume the teams with the regular starting quarterbacks will somehow prevail, and even then, good luck.

I’ll do the final batch for the New Year’s Six and College Football Playoff games for Thursday night – I’m going to break something tasteful if my No. 1 for that isn’t nailed dead cold.

Until then, here are five that should work, starting with one that might be going on just as you’re reading this …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Camellia Bowl: Buffalo vs Georgia Southern

Tuesday, December 27, 12:00 ESPN
ATS Line Georgia Southern -3.5
Pick Georgia Southern

I’m not going to lie, I’ve hit a wall with some of these bowl games and trying to guess whether or not some random guy who’s third on the depth chart is about to rise up and rock. I’m going to keep this simple.

Pick the teams that have the most key starters from the regular season still around. That sounds obvious, right? However, sometimes there are just enough good parts on the rest of the team to make up for the missing pieces, so that goes with Part Two of this simple way of doing this.

If all things were totally normal for a neutral site game in mid-October, who would you take?

Georgia Southern -3.5 against Buffalo if everything was even would be the call. Now throw into the mix that UB’s backfield is very, very thin, as is the offense isn’t steadily high-powered enough to keep up, and the Eagles are far better equipped to hang around in a back-and-forth shootout.

Buffalo’s defense takes the ball away in bunches, though. As long as Georgia Southern doesn’t get slaughtered in the turnover margin fight, this shouldn’t be a problem.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

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5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions Against The Spread December 21-24 Games

5 best college football bowl predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the first run from December 21st to the 24th

5 best predictions for this the early bowls. What are the best bets and picks for the bowl games from December 21st through the 24th?  

5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions December 21-24 Games

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Expert Picks
Bowls Dec 20-27 | Dec 28-Jan 2, NY6, CFP
Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Results So Far: 76-66-1
Bowl Season: 2-3

My goal was hit 3-for-5 in the first round of the 5 Best Bowl Predictions Against The Spread.

I roped two doubles off of fat beach balls down the middle of the plate – the over on the Celebration Bowl and the under on whatever the hell that Fenway Bowl between Louisville and Cincinnati was – and I hit a rocket shot for a hard out with UAB and Miami University coming two yards away from the over.

However, I’m shaken by looking at a called strike three right down the middle of the plate thinking Florida would give Oregon State a game in the Las Vegas, and one of my sure things of the bowl season – Boise State destroying North Texas in the Frisco – was an embarrassing strikeout with a pulled muscle at the end.

I apologize for not pumping up one of the easiest calls of the bunch – Marshall over UConn by 10.5 in the Myrtle Beach – so I’ll try to make up for it with this round of seven bowls to choose from between December 21st and December 24th.

Oh, but I only need one of them for two of the picks.

Happy Holidays everyone. Seriously. You and everyone else deserve to kick back, eat way too much, and watch a whole lot of mediocre football for next several days.

I’m tired of joking around. I’m getting these five right starting with …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs Baylor

Thursday, December 22, 7:30, ESPN 
ATS Line Baylor -4
Pick Air Force

I’m not going to get into the why on this from a technical game analysis standpoint. Let’s make it simple.

Air Force and head coach Troy Calhoun are terrific in bowl games.

Calhoun had a bit of a rough start in his long tenure going 2-4 in these things, but since taking out Western Michigan in your 2014 Famous Idaho Potato, he and the program have gone 4-1 winning three straight including the last two against Power Fivers Louisville and Washington State.

Air Force doesn’t have anyone of note taking off or transferring, and the losses for Baylor are relatively minimal. However, the Bears did shake up the coaching staff a bit firing defensive coordinator Ron Roberts. That might not be a plus for Air Force, though, for one big reason.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda appears to be handling the defensive coaching duties, and that’s why I’m not going overboard here. He’s way too good.

On the flip side, there’s a lot of fixing to do for a defense that was miserable at coming up with third down stops and didn’t generate enough pressure up front. There’s that, and Baylor needs to control the clock and the tempo – no one controls the clock and the tempo against Air Force.

All of that, and Air Force should be relatively healthy. When this team had all the parts, it worked. When it was banged up, it struggled.

Again, I’m not 1000% in love with this – Air Force came up with a whole lot of wins against a whole lot of bad teams – but I’m in deep like. So let’s try this …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

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5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions Against The Spread December 16-19 Games

5 best college football bowl predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the first run from December 16th to the 19th

5 best predictions for this the early bowls. What are the best bets and picks for the bowl games from December 16th through the 19th?  

5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions December 16-19 Games

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Expert Picks
Bowls Dec 16-19 | Dec 20-27 | NFL Week 15
Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Results So Far: 74-63-1

Bowl games require a completely different skill set when it comes to figuring out the best picks against the spread and the slightly off point totals.

Especially this year, it’s like trying to figure out NFL preseason games. Who’s playing, who’s going to try, who has the most interest?

And every time you think you have a game that closely represents a big regular season showdown, something always goes wrong.

But there’s a flip side to that. Figure out where the public is leaning based on what happened during the regular season, and combine that with the always-massive overreaction to even the slightest bit of injury or opt-out news, and there’s a chance to clean up.

I’m not going to lie, though. This bowl season is going to be rough. As I always advise, never, ever parlay, and that goes triple for these games.

That doesn’t mean I can’t have a 3-for-5 day at the plate for the first ten bowls of the season.

Merry bowling, everyone.

Because this first one is probably rolling by the time you get to this, go ahead and apply all of this to the second half lines in …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl: UAB vs Miami University

Friday, December 16, 11:30 am, ESPN 
POINT TOTAL 45
PICK Over

Here’s where this might get tricky – Miami University is missing way too many offensive players off a team that didn’t exactly light it up during the regular season.

There are a few ways to look at all the opt-outs, transfers and injuries in these games. Either it’s going to be a disaster without no offensive continuity, or coaches are just going to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.

Or, one team is about to get obliterated.

Miami might not have a strong enough O line or passing game, and UAB doesn’t have its new head coach Trent Dilfer quite yet. However, the Blazers are relatively intact, they like outgoing head coach Bryant Vincent enough to play hard for him.

If this UAB offense gets rolling, it’s more than capable of handling at least 30 of the 45 points on the total by itself even against a good RedHawk D. It’s going to be up to Miami University’s offense – held together by duct tape and a few prayers – to help just a little bit.

30ish to 15ish will get this done. In the first seven Bahamas Bowls, four went over 45, last year’s hit it, and one came close at 44, and one got to 40.

Now, if this doesn’t work and you think I’m even more of an idiot by the time you get to this piece, it’s bowl season. Shake it off – there are always more bowls on the way.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

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5 Best NFL Predictions Against The Spread Week 14

5 best NFL predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the Week 14 games.

5 best predictions for this week’s NFL slate. What appear to be the best bets and picks for the Week 14 games?

5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread NFL Week 14

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Expert Picks
Bowls Dec 16-19: College Week 14: NFL
– Week 14 NFL Schedule, Predictions

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Because I didn’t screw up the world enough with my best college picks against the spread – I was actually hovering over 60% until a late crash brought me down to 55% – here we go with the best-looking NFL picks against the spread.

A slew of the tried-and-true college theories – always go under on a point total over 70, late-season double-digit home dogs – don’t apply here, but don’t worry, There are some NFL versions that are just as wacky.

The 5 Best Bowl Picks, Part 1, coming early next week. First we start with the NFL by going completely off the deep end.

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Houston at Dallas

LINE Dallas -17.5
ATS PICK Houston

Yes, I absolutely buy into the idea of You’re Never Wrong Taking An NFL Underdog theory. But Indianapolis-Dallas happens.

The Colts +11 was the call – just because. That wasn’t Alabama vs Austin Peay. Those were grown men who get paid a lot of money – yes, even more than Alabama – and they usually find ways to keep games from going totally off the rails.

Dallas 54, Indianapolis 19.

However, that took a bizarre 33-point Cowboy fourth quarter to get there. That’s not to say the explosion couldn’t happen against a Houston team that’s dead last in the NFL against the run and now has to deal with Zeke and Tony.

But the crazy part is that the 1-10-1 Texans aren’t getting rocked. They don’t have the talent, and they can’t seem to score, but the biggest loss among the ten was by 18 against Las Vegas. That was because Josh Jacobs decided to single-handedly win everyone’s fantasy week in the fourth quarter with two scores, and then a late pick six sealed the 21-point run to crank up the difference.

Whatever. Dallas has won four of its last six games by 18 or more, it’s playing lights out, Houston can’t do anything right, and …

You’re up 17.5-0 walking into AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon at noon local time. If it doesn’t work and the Texans get destroyed, it’s not your fault.

You did things the right way. Lose, and you tip your cap and move on. It’s still the NFL and 17.5 is a ton no matter what.

NEXT: NFL Pick Against the Spread No. 4: New York Jets at Buffalo

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5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Rivalry Week Saturday

5 best predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the Saturday Rivalry Week college football games.

5 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What appear to be the best bets and picks for the Rivalry Week games on Saturday?

5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread Rivalry Week Saturday

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Expert Picks
Week 13: College Week 12: NFL
Week 13 Game Previews 
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Results So Far: 74-63-1

So where did this all go wrong yesterday when I went 1-4 with the 5 Best Rivalry Picks Against the Spread, the Friday version?

I got the one I really wanted – Florida +9.5 against Florida State – and after not worrying about the hook with Arizona giving up 3.5 to Arizona State, I got caught on it in the 38-35 Wildcat win.

The other three? Mountain West games that I knew were flaky, but went there anyway. And no, I’m not over Utah State not covering the 16.5 against Boise State.

There are more to choose from in the Saturday selection, so I’m setting the bar higher. Friday was about as crazy as it gets – it seems like almost all the underdogs played up, with the regrettable misfires of my Utah State and Wyoming picks.

So read on at your own risk. And why?

Did you see Iowa blowing its shot to play for the Big Ten Championship by gagging against Nebraska?

Friday was weird. Saturday should be even zanier, so I’m going to try to control the uncontrollable starting with …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Army at UMass

LINE Army -19.5
ATS PICK UMass

When in doubt, fall back on the research and what’s staring you in the face. Even if it doesn’t make any sense, at least you can rationalize the pick.

I’m stalling. I don’t want to pick UMass. Ever.

It has yet to beat an FBS team, the passing attack is painfully inconsistent, and the offense scored more than 13 points just three times all year.

Here’s the thing, though. The 34-7 loss to Buffalo was the only time in the last seven games the Minutemen lost by 20 or more.

It’s not like it played all lightweights, either – it lost at Texas A&M by 16, to Liberty by 18, and to UConn – don’t laugh, it’s going bowling – by 17.

Here’s the other glaring thing. Army stinks away from home.

It’s partly because the home slate was so light, but the Knights were 4-2 at West Point. The strongest win was over UConn, they were rocked by Georgia State by 17, and they lost in a shootout with UTSA. Two of the wins were to FCS teams, and one was a 24-point blowout over ULM.

Away from home? 0-4.

The offense only scored more than ten in the 38-28 loss to Coastal Carolina, and now it’s going against a team that’s not totally miserable at running the ball, controlling the clock, and making this a fast game.

Okay, fine. So you’re not going to spend part of your Saturday worrying about UMass. I don’t blame you.

Let me try again with another lousy team vs. another team that can’t play on the road and see if that does it for you …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: UAB at Louisiana Tech

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5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Rivalry Week Friday

5 best predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the Friday Rivalry Week college football games.

5 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What appear to be the best bets and picks for the Rivalry Week games on Friday?

5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread Rivalry Week Friday

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Expert Picks
Week 13: College Week 12: NFL
Week 13 Game Previews 
Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Results So Far: 73-59-1

Welcome to Rivalry Week – that bittersweet time when the biggest and most fun games kick in right when the season is about to end.

We already had one big game – and, to be honest, I’m sort of shocked Ole Miss lost it – with Mississippi State taking the Egg Bowl, but that feeds into the Friday version of the 5 Best Predictions Against the Spread.

You have to adjust for the curve.

Because of all the big games I’m breaking this up with five of the best-looking predictions against the spread for Friday, and then five more will crank up on Saturday morning.

Fair warning: 1) there are only 13 games on Friday, so nailing five of these is a statistical uphill climb, but I’ll do it (I hope), and 2) the Mountain West has been a bear this year to figure out against the spread, and it’s not just me who had problems with it.

So, of course, in the weirdest and most emotional week of the year, I go big on three games in the weirdest conference to pick, starting with …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. New Mexico at Colorado State

POINT TOTAL 35
PICK Over

All you’re looking for is 20-16. The point total on this is just too obscene to blow off, but it actually makes sense – and was nicer at 34.5.

What happens when two bad teams play each other?

Sometimes one side turns out to be really bad, and the result is a beating – like New Mexico State beating New Mexico 21-6. Sometimes the two teams are really bad and they play a really bad game – like Colorado State beating New Nevada 17-14.

And sometimes the two bad teams put together something shockingly entertaining.

Here’s the thing about Rivalry Week that gets blown off – this is it for a lot of teams.

Forget the rivalry aspect, some of these teams just want to go into the sunset with something happy after a long, rough season. That means both sides empty the playbook to do anything to get the win.

Coaches take more chances, because why not? More fourth down attempts, more trick plays, anything – this is it.

Here’s the issue with that when it comes to New Mexico going to Colorado State – neither team can score.

Colorado State has yet to hit 20 points this season, and New Mexico get past 14 just three times and once was a 41-0 win over Maine.

Again, though, these two teams are equally lousy.

New Mexico will allow more than 20 points in this. Colorado State should give up around 14-to-17.

Staying in the Mountain West …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: Utah State at Boise State

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