1. Troy at Arkansas State
LINE Troy -13.5
ATS PICK Troy
I’ve already violated almost everything I believe in so far in this piece, I might as well chuck it all at this point.
I took two really bad teams as big underdogs at home, I want against the Michigan lines in that game, and I went with a big road favorite in a rivalry game that’s been relatively close over the years.
So let’s just turn the dial to another notch above OOPS for this last one.
Here’s why. The Troy defense is a thing.
It might be awful on third downs, and the offense doesn’t provide enough help, but when it needs to crank up the production, uh oh. If it wins this it’s off to the Sun Belt Championship.
Or, if South Alabama loses to Old Dominion, Troy is in. That starts at 12 ET, and this starts at 3:30, so the Trojans should know where they stand.
Just assume Troy is coming into this thinking it has to win. That’s where the defensive intensity kicks in.
Arkansas State hasn’t hit 300 yards or total offense in any of the last six games, going 5-1 with the lone win coming against UMass – which is why I’m so squeamish about No. 5 on this list. It also didn’t score more than 20 against anyone except the Minutemen over that run, and now it’s going against a defense that allowed 17 points or fewer to all but three teams.
Ole Miss only came up with 28 points against the Trojans, and WKU and it’s high-powered attack only managed 27.
The real worry is a Troy offense that’s not exactly lighting it up. Still, start with the defense keeping the score very, very low and go from there.
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