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The No. 14 seed Colgate Raiders (25-9) face off against the 3rd-seeded Baylor Bears (23-10) Friday in a 1st-round game in the NCAA Tournament. Tip from FedExForum in Memphis is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Colgate vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
After finishing the regular season 22-9, Colgate won 3 games to claim the Patriot League Tournament title, capped by a 74-55 home victory over the Lehigh Mountain Hawks. The Raiders covered as 8-point favorites and the Under (136) cashed. Colgate is led by Patriot League Player of the Year G Braeden Smith, who averaged 12.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.9 steals during his sophomore campaign. Colgate was 17-15-1 against the spread (ATS) and just 1-3-1 ATS over its last 5 regular-season games — the Raiders went 1-2 ATS in the conference tourney.
The Bears lost in the Big-12 Tournament semifinal 76-72 to the eventual champion Iowa State Cyclones. Baylor did not cover as a 2-point underdog and the Over (134.5) cashed. Baylor has one of the most balanced offenses in the country with 6 players averaging double figures in points, led by G Ja’Kobe Walter’s 14.2 PPG. The court general is 2nd team All Big-12 selection G RayJ Dennis who averaged 13.3 points, 6.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. The Bears finished 18-11-3 ATS, including 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 regular-season games — they went 1-1 ATS in the conference tourney.
Baylor is No. 13 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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Colgate vs. Baylor odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Colgate +810 (bet $100 to win $810) | Baylor -1450 (bet $1,450 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Colgate +13.5 (-102) | Baylor -13.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 138.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Colgate vs. Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Baylor 78, Colgate 57
Moneyline
PASS.
You should obviously avoid betting Baylor (-1450) as these odds are pretty steep. One would have to risk 14½ times the potential profit. That’s just not smart sports betting. Back the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
BET BAYLOR -13.5 (-120).
As much as I want to root for an upset, this is an awful draw for Colgate. This Baylor team is just on another level athletically and should thoroughly thrash the Raiders. The Bears went 5-1 ATS when facing mid-major schools during their non-conference schedule. They also have also beaten 8 teams this season that made the NCAA Tournament. Only TCU and BYU scored more points per game than Baylor did in the Big 12.
Colgate faced 3 teams that made the Big Dance, going 1-2 in those games. The Raiders just don’t have the horses to keep up with the Bears.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 138.5 (-110).
Colgate faced 2 ranked teams this season, and were beaten soundly. It only managed to score 55 against Arizona and 57 against Illinois. Those teams are on par with the likes of Baylor. Both of those games went Under the posted total because of the Raiders’ inability to score. Colgate was 12-20-1 O/U this season, including 3-6-1 O/U in its last 10 games
The Bears are a mixed bag when it comes to the total (17-15 O/U). They will get their points in this 1st-round matchup, but they7 will hold the Raiders under 60, leading to the UNDER (138.5) coming through.
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