Tag: Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins odds predictions pick betting line spread

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (25-31) and Minnesota Twins (30-27) clash in an AL Central showdown Friday in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 1-0

Cleveland lost Thursday’s series opener 7-6. The Guardians led 6-3 going into the bottom of the 8th, but Minnesota scored 3 runs in the 8th and a game-winner in the 9th. Cleveland is 3-9 over its last 12 road games.

The Minnesota offense has been feast or famine recently. The Twins have scored 7 or more runs 5 times and 1 run or fewer 3 times in their last 8 games.

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Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Bailey Ober

Civale (1-1, 2.84 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 12 2/3 IP.

  • Returning from an oblique strain and a lengthy stay on the IL
  • Last pitched in an MLB game on April 7: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K vs. the Seattle Mariners
  • Owns a 5.14 ERA over his last 5 starts against Minnesota (2020-22)

Ober (3-2, 2.68 ERA) makes his 8th start. He owns a 1.02 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP.

  • Has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .157/.189/.196 (.385 OPS) line
  • Started the season at Triple-A and made his season debut on April 23
  • Has benefited from a .257 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a low 5.1% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) mark

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Guardians +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Twins -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Twins -1.5 (+152)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Guardians 4

Moneyline

Take the baselines for the starting pitchers, add in some gray area for the Civale return — a plus for the Minnesota offense — and a couple of percentage ticks for the home side, and the lines here are tough to parse.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Take the ML commentary and add extra juice: AVOID.

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Over/Under

The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 series meetings in Minnesota.

The Twins’ offense has been average thus far, but Minnesota has been awful in high-leverage situations in part due to a .259 BABIP in those spots. With solid home numbers (.773 OPS), it’s not a reach to consider Minnesota to be a top-10 offense in waiting.

Civale is a talented hurler, but what Cleveland gets out of him in this return is a question mark, and Ober is too far out over his skis with his surface ERA. Both bullpens are outperforming their numbers too, and the Guardians’ relief corps — at least at the back end — is not set up well after being used in trying to nurse a lead on Thursday.

On a warm evening in Minneapolis, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Guardians (25-30) and Minnesota Twins (29-27) meet Thursday to kick off a 4-game series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-1

Cleveland won 12-8 vs. the Baltimore Orioles as a -113 road favorite Wednesday. 1B Josh Naylor catapulted the Guardians to the victory with 6 RBIs. The Guardians are 3-1 in their last 4 games.

Minnesota won 8-2 as a +163 road underdog Wednesday vs. the Houston Astros. Minnesota never trailed as it took a 3-0 lead in the 3rd inning that started with an RBI single by 1B Donovan Solano that scored 2. The Twins are 3-2 in their last 5 contests but have not won back-to-back games since May 13-14.

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Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Bibee (1-1, 2.88 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 34 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in a 2-1 home loss Saturday vs. St. Louis Cardinals
  • First career start vs. Minnesota

Lopez (3-3, 4.11 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 65 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 9-7 home win Saturday vs. Toronto Blue Jays
  • Career vs. Cleveland: 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, and 6 K through 1 start on April 19, 2019, as a member of the Miami Marlins

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-165) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Twins 3

Moneyline

BET GUARDIANS (+120).

Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent matchups, going 11-2 in the last 13 meetings overall and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. The Twins are also just 1-6 in their last 7 series openers.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Guardians at +1.5 (-165) should be a very safe bet, but the risk here is not worth the reward when the moneyline and O/U are both great plays as well and offer better value.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-110).

The Under is 11-2-2 in Cleveland’s last 15 series openers and 8-2 in their last 10 overall. The Under is 6-4 in Minnesota’s last 10 overall.

The Under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these squads and 7-3 in their last 10 contests.

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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (71-65) and Minnesota Twins (69-68) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Guardians lead series 7-5

The Guardians held on for a 7-6 victory in Friday’s series opener. Cleveland built a 7-0 lead in the top of the 5th inning, but Minnesota stormed back for 6 runs from the 5th through the 8th innings.

The Twins slipped to 3rd place with the loss, 2 1/2 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central Division, and they now trail the Chicago White Sox by 1 game as well. Minnesota is in freefall, going 2-7 across its last 9 games.

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Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Chris Archer

McKenzie (9-11, 3.18 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 158 1/3 IP.

  • Is 4-8 with a 3.41 ERA with a .202 opponent batting average with 76 K across 95 IP in 15 road starts and 1 relief appearance
  • Has managed an 0-2 record, 8.31 ERA and .290 opponent BA with 7 HR allowed in just 17 1/3 IP across 3 starts vs. Minnesota in 2022

Archer (2-7, 4.47 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 100 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed just 1 ER and 1 H with 6 BB and 2 K across 4 IP in a no-decision at Cleveland June 30
  • Hasn’t won in 10 consecutive starts dating back to June 25 against the Colorado Rockies

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+135) | Twins +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 6, Twins 5

Money line

The GUARDIANS (-125) are looking to stay hot. Cleveland has won 12 of its last 17 road games, including Friday’s series opener. The Guardians are also an impressive 5-2 in their last 7 games against AL Central Division opponents.

The Twins have been ice cold. Minnesota has won just twice in the past 12 games against teams with a winning overall record while going 1-7 in their last 8 against a right-handed starting pitcher.

Run line/Against the spread

The TWINS +1.5 (-170) stormed back and picked up the run line cover Friday, although they didn’t win outright. It was a miracle cover for those who took the chance. This one has an equally good chance of being a 1-run game, as McKenzie has had his difficulties against the Twins this season. He is anything but a sure thing.

Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-105) is the best bet in this middle game. You’ll be going against the trends, as the Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 road games for the Guardians and 7-3 in the last 10 games for the Twins against AL Central Division teams.

However, both of these pitchers have been very giving, especially McKenzie against the Twins. He has been a flamethrower this season, but the Twins have solved him, and taken him out of the yard plenty. Archer is about as inconsistent as they come, so look for plenty of fireworks here.

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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (70-65) and Minnesota Twins (69-67) begin a 3-game series Friday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Y nickname vs. Z odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Guardians lead series 6-5

The Guardians lead the AL Central by 1.5 games over both the Twins and Chicago White Sox. Cleveland won 2 of 3 in Kansas City earlier this week and nearly had the sweep, but All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase blew the save Wednesday and took the loss 2-1.

The Twins avoided the broom in a 3-game set in New York against the Yankees, winning 4-3 Wednesday. Despite the win, Minnesota is just 2-5 in its last 7 games.

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Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Cal Quantrill vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

Quantrill (11-5, 3.55 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 152 IP.

  • Is 4-5 with a 3.86 ERA, .277 opponent batting average and 43 K across 63 IP in 11 road starts this season
  • Went 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA and .162 opponent BA with 27 K across 38 IP in 6 August starts, easily his best month in 2022

Bundy (8-6, 4.34 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 118 1/3 IP.

  • Has managed a 4-1 record, 2.80 ERA and .231 opponent BA with 29 K across 45 IP in 9 starts at Target Field this season
  • Allowed 3 R (2 ER) with 6 H, 1 BB and 1 K over 5 IP in a no-decision at Cleveland June 29

Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Twins -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+160) | Twins +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Twins 2

Money line

The GUARDIANS (-110) are a solid play in this series opener, as they look to maintain 1st place in the AL Central.

Quantrill is coming off his best month of the season, and he should be able to pitch well against a Twins (-110) side struggling to plate runs lately.

The Guardians are also 11-5 in the last 16 road games, and 13-6 in the previous 19 games against AL Central foes. Cleveland is also rested, and that’s a good thing. It is 5-0 in the last 5  games following a scheduled off day.

Run line/Against the spread

The TWINS +1.5 (-200) are a little on the expensive side, should you want a little insurance and you do not trust them straight up. Minnesota has lost 2 of its last 5 games by 1 run, so they’re not a terrible play against the number.

Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the best play on the board in this AL Central battle which should have the feel of a playoff game.

Quantrill was untouchable in August, posting his lowest ERA of the month, and Bundy has tremendous splits at home. The runs should be at a premium here.

The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 on the road for Cleveland, while going 8-1-1 in the last 10 series openers. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 series openers for Minnesota, too, while cashing in 7 of the past 9 inside the division.

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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions

The Cleveland Guardians (36-28) and Minnesota Twins (38-32) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game set at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Guardians hold a 3-2 season series edge, including the first 2 contests of this 3-game set.

The Guardians faced a 10-7 deficit in the 9th inning Wednesday, but RPs Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax coughed up 4 runs as Minnesota fell 11-10.

The Twins have fallen 1 game back of the 1st-place Guardians as a result of that blown opportunity in the 9th, as well as Tuesday’s 6-5 setback in the 11th inning to Cleveland.

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Zach Plesac vs. LHP Devin Smeltzer

Plesac (2-4, 4.41 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 67 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 3.34 ERA in 35 IP across 6 home starts, but a dismal 5.57 ERA in 32 1/3 IP over 6 road outings.
  • Is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA in 4 starts (none vs. MIN) across 24 2/3 IP vs. AL Central teams this season.

Smeltzer (3-1, 3.52 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 through 38 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed a career-high 7 R (6 ER) across just 4 1/3 IP in a loss last time out at Arizona Friday.
  • Is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA across 18 IP with a .150 opponent batting average over 3 home starts.

Guardians at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Guardians 5

Money line

I expect the TWINS (-135) to salvage the series finale on getaway day, getting back to a tie for 1st place with the Guardians (+110) in the AL Central.

These teams have had two 1-run games so far in this series and will likely have plenty more close battles this season. They have a 5-game set in Cleveland from June 27-30.

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Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-175) have found a way to win when it appeared all was lost, or hope was dismal. It’s reminiscent of teams from the 1990’s from the great city of Cleveland. This team has just had something special during the early going. They might not win, but they’ll keep it close to the end.

Over/Under

The OVER 10.5 (+100) is a value play at even-money.

These teams combined for 21 total runs in Wednesday’s wild and wacky 11-10 Cleveland win, and the Over has cashed in each of the first 2 in the series. While the Under is 3-1 in Plesac’s past four outings, the Over has hit at a 3-0-1 clip across Smeltzer’s previous 4 starts.

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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (35-28) continue their 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (38-31) Wednesday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland won the series opener 6-5 Tuesday thanks to an RBI single in the top of the 11th inning by Guardians 2B Andres Gimenez. The season series is tied 2-2, but Minnesota has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Sonny Gray   

McKenzie is 4-5 with a 2.96 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 70 IP over 11 starts and 1 bullpen outing.

  • Last start: Won 4-2 Thursday at the Colorado Rockies with 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Twins: One start, a 3-1 loss in Minnesota May 15 with 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.

Gray is 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Minnesota’s 5-0 win at the Seattle Mariners Wednesday with 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Guardians: One start, a no-decision in Minnesota’s 12-8 home win May 13 with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 8 K.

Guardians at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Guardians 3

Money line

RISK 1 unit the TWINS (-165) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price.

The Twins are the play because they are more profitable in these spots, their lineup hits right-handed pitching better than the Guardians, Gray has more impressive advanced pitching numbers vs. Wednesday’s opponent than McKenzie and the line is headed in Minnesota’s direction.

The Twins are 12-4 overall as home favorites vs. right-handed starters with a plus-19.8% return on investment (ROI) and are outscoring opponents by 2 runs per game. The Guardians are 4-9 as road underdogs vs. righty starters with a minus-23.1% ROI and are being outscored by 1.5 runs per game.

Also, Minnesota’s lineup outperforms Cleveland’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (114-106), wOBA (.325-.315), ISO (.166-.151) and hard-hit rate (34.5-26.3%), according to FanGraphs.

Furthermore, Gray has a .237/.307/.411 expected batting (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with a 29.0 K%, 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) and 7.2° launch angle (LA) in 69 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Guardians hitters, per Statcast.

McKenzie has a .265/.372/.548 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 27.0 K%, 90.3 mph EV and 16.3° LA in 63 PA vs. current Twins hitters.

Finally, the public is mostly split on who’ll win this game but the sharper bettors are staking Minnesota, which has been steamed from a -145 ML opener up to the current number, according to Pregame.com.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the TWINS (-165) to earn a $60.61 profit instead of betting $165 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the TWINS -1.5 (+125) based on the previous analysis and Minnesota is more profitable on the RL in these situations than the Guardians +1.5 (-155). However, it’s only a “lean” to Minnesota’s RL because we are paying a pretty penny on the ML.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-110) only because Minnesota’s ML is my preferred play. But, Guardians-Twins are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 meetings and have a combined 7-12 O/U record when these starters get the nod.

Also, there’s more money on the UNDER 8.5 (-110) whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 8.5 (-110), per Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

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Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (15-15) head to Target Field Friday to start a 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (18-14) at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota is 5-5 in the last 10 games and was just swept in a 3-game set by the Houston Astros, getting outscored 21-3 in the process.

Cleveland is 7-3 in the last 10 and had its 3-game winning streak snapped Tuesday in a 5-0 loss to the Houston Astros.

The Twins beat the Guardians in last year’s season series 11-8 and outscored Cleveland 91-75 in those meetings.

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Civale 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 20 IP over 5 starts.

  • Won 6-5 vs. the Toronto Blue Jays May 5 with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Twins: 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster: 2.73 FIP with a .212/.253/.300 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 25.0 K% and 84.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 64 plate appearances (PA).

Gray is 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 2 HR, 5 BB and 12 K in 3 starts.

  • No decision in Minnesota’s 1-0 win Saturday over the Oakland Athletics with 4-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Guardians: No decision in his lone start, a 3-2 loss in mid-April while pitching for the Cincinnati Reds with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Guardians on the current roster: 2.89 FIP with a .244/.271/.371 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 27.0 K% and 85.7 mph EV in 63 PA.

Guardians at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:19 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Guardians +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Twins 3

Money line

BET the GUARDIANS (+133) because this pitching matchup is even but Cleveland’s lineup hits well vs. right-handed pitching and on the road.

The Guardians’ hitters are 3rd in wRC+ (123) and 4th in wOBA (.331) on the road (per FanGraphs). Cleveland’s lineup is 2nd in both wRC+ (128) and wOBA (.339) against righties. Whereas Minnesota’s lineup is 16th in wRC+ (101) and 20th in wOBA (.301).

Also, there’s a line freeze in the betting market since more than 85% of the action is on the Twins to win (per Pregame.com) but Minnesota’s ML hasn’t budged off the opener. This tells us the sportsbooks are welcoming more pro-Twins money and we don’t want to play into the House’s hand.

TAKE the GUARDIANS (+133).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Guardians +1.5 (-155) is way too expensive considering Cleveland is 6-7 RL as road underdogs.

For the record, the Twins -1.5 (+125) are just 5-7 RL as home favorites but I’d need Cleveland’s RL to be south of -135 to take a stab.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) because the Under has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Guardians-Twins games. But, Cleveland’s ML is my favorite bet in this game hence the lean.

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