The Cleveland Guardians (36-28) and Minnesota Twins (38-32) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game set at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: The Guardians hold a 3-2 season series edge, including the first 2 contests of this 3-game set.
The Guardians faced a 10-7 deficit in the 9th inning Wednesday, but RPs Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax coughed up 4 runs as Minnesota fell 11-10.
The Twins have fallen 1 game back of the 1st-place Guardians as a result of that blown opportunity in the 9th, as well as Tuesday’s 6-5 setback in the 11th inning to Cleveland.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Zach Plesac vs. LHP Devin Smeltzer
Plesac (2-4, 4.41 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 67 1/3 IP.
- Has a 3.34 ERA in 35 IP across 6 home starts, but a dismal 5.57 ERA in 32 1/3 IP over 6 road outings.
- Is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA in 4 starts (none vs. MIN) across 24 2/3 IP vs. AL Central teams this season.
Smeltzer (3-1, 3.52 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 through 38 1/3 IP.
- Allowed a career-high 7 R (6 ER) across just 4 1/3 IP in a loss last time out at Arizona Friday.
- Is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA across 18 IP with a .150 opponent batting average over 3 home starts.
Guardians at Twins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 6, Guardians 5
Money line
I expect the TWINS (-135) to salvage the series finale on getaway day, getting back to a tie for 1st place with the Guardians (+110) in the AL Central.
These teams have had two 1-run games so far in this series and will likely have plenty more close battles this season. They have a 5-game set in Cleveland from June 27-30.
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Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-175) have found a way to win when it appeared all was lost, or hope was dismal. It’s reminiscent of teams from the 1990’s from the great city of Cleveland. This team has just had something special during the early going. They might not win, but they’ll keep it close to the end.
Over/Under
The OVER 10.5 (+100) is a value play at even-money.
These teams combined for 21 total runs in Wednesday’s wild and wacky 11-10 Cleveland win, and the Over has cashed in each of the first 2 in the series. While the Under is 3-1 in Plesac’s past four outings, the Over has hit at a 3-0-1 clip across Smeltzer’s previous 4 starts.
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