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The Cleveland Guardians (80-59) and Kansas City Royals (75-65) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 7-5
The Guardians hammered the Royals 7-1 to cash as the road favorite (-129) on Tuesday, with the total (8) pushing at most shops. Cleveland is looking for the 3-game road sweep in Wednesday’s game after dropping 3 of 4 at home to Kansas City Aug. 26-28.
The Guardians have won 5 of the past 6 outings, while the Under is on a 3-0-1 run in the past 4 contests.
The Royals are in freefall, dropping 7 consecutive games to slip 5 1/2 games behind the Guardians for 1st place. Kansas City is a game back of the Minnesota Twins for 2nd place in the AL Central Division, too.
Kansas City has averaged just 2.0 runs per game (RPG) in the past 6 games, while the Under is on a 3-1-1 run in the previous 5 outings. After KC won 3 straight to open the 4-game series in Cleveland, the Guardians have taken 3 straight against the Royals.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Lively (11-8, 3.92 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 131 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2024 road splits: 4-6, 3.90 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.22 WHIP, .237 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11 HR, 22 BB, 56 K in 12 starts
- Post All-Star break: 3-3, 4.60 ERA (43 IP, 22 ER), 1.35 WHIP, .243 OBA, 7 HR, 17 BB, 27 K in 8 starts
- 2024 vs. Royals: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2-1 road setback June 27
- Career vs. Royals: 4-1, 3.19 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 9 HR, 0.99 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 10 starts
Lugo (14-8, 3.12 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 179 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 3-2 road loss vs. Houston Astros Friday
- 2024 home splits: 6-5, 3.36 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.15 WHIP, .240 OBA, 22 BB, 70 K in 14 starts
- Post All-Star break: 3-4, 4.67 ERA (52 IP, 27 ER), 1.19 WHIP, .240 OBA, 4 HR, 14 BB, 39 K in 8 starts
- 2024 vs. Guardians: 1-0, 3.75 ERA (12 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, .217 OBA, 2 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 3.21 ERA (14 IP, 5 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Royals -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Royals -1.5 (+152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 6, Guardians 5
Moneyline
The ROYALS (-134) have their best pitcher on the bump. Although Lugo was much better before the All-Star break than after, he has been fairly steady all season.
The Guardians (+116) have really made life difficult for Kansas City after the Royals made a run at the division lead just last week. Now, the Royals are sinking like a stone, and they need their All-Star to stop a 7-game losing streak in the worst way.
Run line/Against the spread
If you need some insurance, and just can’t bet the Guardians +1.5 (-184) straight up, this isn’t a good bet. You would need to risk nearly 2 times your potential return on the visitors.
AVOID, and just play Cleveland straight up if you like it.
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Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-114) is worth a look in Wednesday’s series finale after an Under in the opener, and a push at most shops on Tuesday.
Both Lively and Lugo have put up a lot of crooked numbers since the All-Star break, and both starters have a post-break ERA of 4.60 or higher. We could see a higher-scoring affair.
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