The Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) head to Tampa to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) in a rematch of Super Bowl LV. Sunday’s kickoff at Raymond James Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Chiefs are coming off a surprising 20-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. Kansas City committed several uncharacteristic mistakes on special teams and closed the game with an INT by QB Patrick Mahomes. The Bucs lost 14-12 to the Green Bay Packers last week after failing to convert a 2-point conversion in the final seconds.
The last time the Chiefs and Bucs faced each other was in Super Bowl LV in February 2021. The Bucs dominated in a 31-9 victory despite being 3-point underdogs. The Bucs lead the overall series over the Chiefs 8-6 and are 4-0 ATS against the Chiefs in their last 4 meetings. The Chiefs and Bucs are a combined 1-5 on hitting the Over in total points; the Chiefs did it in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals, going 11 points over the 54-point total.
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Chiefs at Buccaneers odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Buccaneers -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs +0.5 (-108) | Buccaneers -0.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Chiefs at Buccaneers key injuries
Chiefs
- K Harrison Butker (ankle) out
- DE Mike Danna (calf) out
- DE Joshua Kaindoh (illness) questionable
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (abdomen) questionable
Buccaneers
- DE Akiem Hicks (foot) out
- WR Breshad Perriman (knee/hamstring) doubtful
- WR Russell Gage (hamstring) questionable
- WR Chris Godwin (hamstring) questionable
- WR Julio Jones (knee) questionable
- OT Donovan Smith (elbow) questionable
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Chiefs at Buccaneers picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 23, Buccaneers 17
Moneyline
With a half-point spread, this is basically a pick ’em game, which makes it one of the most exciting matchups in Week 4.
The Chiefs will look to get right after being embarrassed by the Colts last week. K.C. hopes to get better kicker play out of the newly-signed Matthew Wright after a disastrous Week 3 that saw Matt Ammendola miss a field goal and extra point.
The Bucs are allowing an average of just 9 points per game, best in the NFL. However, they’ve yet to face an offense as good as Kansas City’s this season. This should still be a close, low-scoring matchup with both defenses performing well this season, but with Tampa Bay’s offense banged up and not playing well, this seems like a bounce-back game for the Chiefs.
I like the CHIEFS -105.
Against the spread
Since the spread is only at half of a point, you’re better off betting the moneyline. However, if the line jumps up to 1 or 1.5 points before you place a bet Sunday, taking the CHIEFS ATS might be the best move since the payout will be close to the same as the moneyline, and K.C. could plausibly win by just 1 point.
Over/Under
The Bucs are allowing just 9 points per game (1st) and are scoring just 17 points per game (9th worst). The Chiefs are scoring 29.3 points per game (4th best) and are allowing 21.7 points per game (16th best). The numbers average out to around 20 points for each squad, which is about where this game should land.
Despite the big names at QB, this should be more of a defensive matchup. Both teams are in the NFL’s top 5 in sacks and top 10 in average yards per carry allowed. The Bucs are also 1st in the NFL in takeaways. On paper there shouldn’t be much scoring, so the game should fall Under 46 points. Play the UNDER 46.5 (-115) lightly.
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