Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets odds predictions pick betting line spread

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (19-12) and New York Mets (15-15) meet Thursday for the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Chicago leads 2-1

Chicago won 1-0 on Wednesday while covering as a -119 road favorite. LHP Shota Imanaga got the win, with 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB with 7 K.

Wednesday’s game was very tight as both teams posted 5 hits and both teams left 6 runners on base, Chicago’s only notable advantage was having 7 hits to New York’s 6. The Mets have scored 2 or less runs in 6 of their last 7 losses.

Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Ben Brown vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Brown (0-1, 4.30 ERA) makes his 4th career start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 23 IP.

Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K in a 17-0 loss vs. the Boston Red Sox Saturday
Rookie making 1st career start vs. Mets

Houser (0-3, 8.37 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.90 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 23 2/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K in a 7-4 loss vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
Career vs. Cubs: 3-2, 3.74 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 45 H, 21 BB, 45 K in 8 starts and 5 relief appearances

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Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:40 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs -105 (bet $105 to win $105) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -125 | U: -105)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Mets 2

Moneyline

LEAN CUBS (-105).

Chicago is 2-1 in its last 3 matchups vs. New York and 6-4 in the last 10 meetings. The Cubs are also the hotter team, being 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Mets are only 3-6 in their last 9.

This is only a lean because these teams are very similarly skilled and because Chicago’s advantages are so small.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN CUBS -1.5 (+155).

Chicago has failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games, which is the 1st time that has happened all season, and I do not expect the Cubs to make it 3 straight. The Cubs have also been the much better ATS team this season, being 20-11 while the Mets are 16-14.

Houser’s rough start to his 2024 campaign also makes this bet slightly safer.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

The Under has hit in back-to-back games for the Cubs and is 6-3-1 in their last 10. For New York, the Under has hit in 3 consecutive outings and is 4-1 in its last 5 games. The Under has also hit in each of the last 5 Chicago-New York matchups.

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (18-12) visit the New York Mets (15-14) on Wednesday with 1st pitch from Citi Field scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Cubs lost 4-2 on Tuesday while failing to cover as +107 road underdogs. C Miguel Amaya and 1B Matt Mervis each had an RBI is the losing effort.

The Mets got back in the win column after Monday’s 3-1 loss to cover as -116 home favorites. A 3-run HR by RF DJ Stewart powered New York’s offense on Tuesday.

Cubs at Mets projected starters

LHP Shota Imanaga vs. RHP Jose Butto

Imanaga (4-0, 0.98 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 0.80 WHIP, 0.98 BB/9 and 9.11 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP.

Cubs are 5-0 in his 5 starts
Has allowed 2 or fewer ER in each start.
Has struck out 28 batters and walked only 3

Butto (0-1, 2.86 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 4.91 BB/9 and 10.23 K/9 in 22 IP.

Mets are 3-1 in his 4 starts
Has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 3 of the 4 starts
Has 25 strikeouts and 12 walks in 22 IP

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 3, Mets 2

Moneyline

BET CUBS (-130).

Imanaga has been a lights-out pitcher for Chicago this season allowing 2 or fewer ER in each start with the Cubs winning each game. They face the Mets and Butto, who has struggled with his command this season and has a high tendency to walk batters. Chicago is 5-3 in its last 8 while New York is 3-6 in its last 9.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is a better probability of the Cubs winning rather than covering.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

The Cubs have failed to hit the Over in 7 of their last 10 games including each of their last 3. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 7 while allowing 4 or fewer in 7 of their last 10. The Mets have also hit the Under in each of their last 3 and have scored 4 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 9 games.

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (18-11) take on the New York Mets (14-14) Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 4-game set at Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 1-0

The Cubs stole Monday’s game 3-1 after scoring 3 runs in the final 2 frames. They trailed 1-0 for 7 innings before getting on the board with a run in the 8th. INF/OF Christopher Morel delivered a 2-run homer in the top of the 9th to garner the eventual win.

The blown save was uncharacteristic for the Mets, who are 7th with a 2.87 bullpen ERA this season. The Mets were only able to scratch across 1 run on 4 hits Monday. They are 16th with 4.43 R/game and 14th with 4.25 opponent R/game.

Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Javier Assad vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Assad (2-0, 2.00 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 27 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K Thursday against Houston Astros
1 career start vs. Mets: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Manaea (1-1, 3.33 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K against San Francisco Giants Wednesday
2 career starts vs. Cubs: 0-1, 6.30 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9 K in 10 IP

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:44 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Mets 2

Moneyline

The Cubs have won 5 of 7, and they have the advantage on the bump. The 26-year-old Assad has yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start this season. Meanwhile, Manaea has allowed at least 2 BB in all 5 starts.

I like the CUBS +105.

Run line/Against the spread

I don’t like either side of the run line here. I will take a chance on Assad here. He has 5+ K’s in 4 of 5 starts, and he struck out 6 Mets in his only start against them in his career. The Mets are the 6th-toughest team to K, but for the price, I’m taking JAVIER ASSAD OVER 4.5 K’S (+105).

Over/Under

This total has fallen from 7.5 to 7 Tuesday morning, and we’re pegging 6 runs here. However, there’s just too little leverage to risk it.

PASS, and take the aforementioned plus-money ventures.

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (17-11) visit the New York Mets (14-13) at Citi Field Monday to begin a 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2024; split last season 3-3

The Mets lost 4-2 in 11 innings as -136 home favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday with the Under (8) still hitting despite the game going to extras. It was a pitchers’ duel early on, with both teams combining for just 2 runs in the 1st 10 innings. Mets 3B Mark Vientos walked it off with a 2-run HR in the 11th.

The Cubs, who were +140 underdogs, lost 5-4 at the Boston Red Sox Sunday night as the total (9) pushed. The Cubs nearly pulled off the upset, tying the game 4-4 in the 8th after trailing 4-0 in the 6th, but RHP Mark Leiter Jr. failed to get an out in the 9th, giving up 1 earned on 2 hits and a walk.

Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Luis Severino

Taillon (2-0, 1.69 ERA) makes his 3rd start this season. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 10 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home victory against Houston Astros Wednesday
.300 OBA vs. left-handed batters and .191 vs. righties

Severino (2-2, 2.67 ERA) makes his 6th start of the season. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 27 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-1 loss to San Fransisco Giants Tuesday
2024 home stats: 2-1, 2.25 ERA (16 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 2, Cubs 1

Moneyline

The Mets are 8-5 after a win, good for the 3rd-best record in MLB.

The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, are 6-7 straight up as road underdogs. Given this is Taillon’s 1st road start, I expect some regression after his early success.

LEAN METS (-130).

Run line/Against the spread

The Mets are 5-8 on the run line as home favorites. Combine that with the Cub’s 14-4 RL record as underdogs, and I would PASS, even at these odds.

Over/Under

The Cubs post a .295 OBP on the road, compared to .356 at Wrigley Field. The Mets are the opposite, with a higher OBP on the road (.340) than at home (.304).

And given the Cubs’ Under record of 6-3-1 after a loss, I see a low-scoring game.

BET UNDER 8 (-110).

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (51-62) welcome the Chicago Cubs (59-55) to Citi Field for the finale of their 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLBNetwork). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-2

The Mets lost 3-2 Tuesday as they failed to pick up momentum from a dominant 11-2 series-opening victory Monday. New York is 1-8 over its last 9 games and is 27-24 at home this season.

The Cubs suddenly find themselves in contention for an NL Wild Card and are 27-27 on the road. Chicago is 6-4 over its last 10 games and finds itself tied for 2nd in the NL Central, 1 1/2 games back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

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Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. LHP David Peterson

Hendricks (4-6, 3.98 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 81 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 8-0 home loss vs. Atlanta Braves Friday
2023 road splits: 3-2, 2.78 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 19 ER) in 7 starts

Peterson (3-7, 5.65 ERA) makes his 13th start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 65 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 10-3 road loss vs. the Baltimore Orioles Friday
2023 home splits: 2-2, 2.67 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 33 ER) in 4 starts and 4 relief appearances

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET CUBS (-105).

The Mets haven’t won too often with Peterson on the mound, going 6-12 in games in which he has appeared and just 3-9 in games in which he pitched at least 3 innings. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Cubs side that has been surging recently.

Hendricks has also been rock solid on the road this season so BET CUBS (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Mets are an MLB-best 9-2 on the run line as home underdogs this season, and while Peterson hasn’t been great, he’ll also likely see limited action. However, New York +1.5 (-185) is far too expensive.

While Chicago has surged over the past month, it is just 6-4 over its last 10. The moneyline play is a better value instead of taking the Cubs to win by margin.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9 (-105).

The Mets have the 4th-lowest Over percentage in the majors at just 47-62-4 O/U. They are just 1-9-1 O/U as home underdogs as well. New York has gone Under in 2 of its last 3 games and has scored more than 3 runs in just 1 of its last 7 games.

The Cubs have cashed the Under in 3 of their last 6 and have scored a combined 5 runs in their 2 games against the Mets so far this series.

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Cubs (58-55) got blown out by the New York Mets (51-61) 11-2 in the series opener Monday and will look to bounce back in the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch at Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 2-2

The Cubs have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last few weeks. They have won 13 of their last 17 games to move within a game of the final NL Wild Card spot and 2 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.

The Mets are headed in the other direction, as they were sellers at the trade deadline and had lost 6 consecutive games prior to Monday’s win. The Mets are 7.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card.

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Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Taillon (6-6, 5.36 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 94 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-3 victory over the Reds Thursday
2023 road stats: 3-2, 4.28 ERA (40 IP, 19 ER), 6.5 K/9 in 8 starts.
His ERA is nearly 2 runs lower on the road than at home (6.17), but his skills have been better at home: 3.8 K/BB vs. 1.8 on the road, .216 BABIP against him away from home vs. 382 BABIP at home
Career vs. Mets: 2-0, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts, although his most recent meeting with them was 2018

Carrasco (3-6, 6.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.64 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 76 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 0 K at Kansas City Royals Thursday
2023 home stats: 1-2, 8.51 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 25 ER) in 7 starts.
Career vs. Cubs: 2-1, 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 8.6 K/9 in 4 starts.
He faced the Cubs back in May and delivered one of his best starts of the year: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 8, Mets 4

Moneyline

The Cubs have been rolling and find themselves in a good spot against a struggling pitcher. They should come out on top but SKIP the moneyline as we can find better value on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

The Chicago bats have been red-hot, plating 163 runs in their past 23 games. Carrasco has had a rough season and is showing no signs of turning things around. The veteran hurler has surrendered 23 runs (21 earned) in just 15 1/3 IP over his last 4 starts.

BET CUBS -1.5 (+110).

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Over/Under

Taillon boasts a 2.08 ERA over his last 5 starts but his skills during that time (3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9) remain underwhelming. He won’t completely shut the Mets down but he should get plenty of support from his teammates.

In 3 of Carrasco’s last 4 starts the opponent has scored 9 or more runs. Take OVER 9.5 (-105) or 11.5 (+185) for a chance at a bigger payout.

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Cubs (58-54) and New York Mets (50-61) open a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 2-1

In the weeks before the trade deadline the Cubs went from sellers to buyers. Chicago picked up a 6-4 victory against the Atlanta Braves Sunday to capture its 6th straight series. RHP Justin Steele notched his MLB-leading 13th win with 3 ER allowed on 8 H and 4 BB with 7 K in 5 1/3 IP.

The Mets enter on a 6-game losing skid. New York was swept in a 3-game series by the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend, including a 2-0 defeat Sunday, and started last week by dropping 3 straight at the Kansas City Royals from Tuesday-Thursday. LHP Jose Quintana allowed just 2 ER in 6 IP but New York mustered just 4 hits and couldn’t cash in on 6 free passes.

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Cubs at Mets projected starters

LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Smyly (8-7, 4.71 ERA) makes his 21st start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 112 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 16-6 home win vs. Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
2023 road stats: 5-4, 3.26 ERA (58 IP, 21 ER) over 10 starts and 1 relief appearance
Career vs. Mets: 4-0, 2.17 ERA (29 IP, 7 ER) across 5 starts and 2 relief appearances

Senga (7-6, 3.25 ERA) makes his 21st start. The 30-year-old rookie has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 110 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 road loss at Royals Wednesday
2023 home stats: 3-2, 2.40 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 15 ER) in 10 games
One career start vs. Cubs: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 4-3 road loss on May 24

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:07 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 3, Mets 2

Moneyline

The Mets losing streak will end eventually, but the Cubs are turning their season around and will be tough to beat.

Smyly is a different — and more efficient — pitcher on the road, holding batters to a .253 batting average versus a .269 mark at home. Pair that with a Mets team that is 25-35 after a loss and 5-14 against the NL Central (who only have 1 team with a positive run differential), I like the Cubs at even money.

LEAN CUBS +(100).

Run line/Against the spread

Since I like the Cubs straight up it’s easy to pick them ATS but right now the -190 price tag for a run of insurance is too steep to play. Best to stick with the moneyline.

PASS

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Over/Under

The Mets have the best home Under record in MLB (32-15-2), and while the Cubs are one of the best Over teams this season (59-48-5), it’s really under specific circumstances: as a favorite, after a loss, and as the home team — all of which aren’t relevant in this game.

As road underdogs, the Cubs Over record falls to 16-15. The same drop happens after a win, when the Cubs Over record is just (27-25-5).

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (60-82) and New York Mets (89-54) will play the 7th and final game of their season series on Wednesday night at Citi Field. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 3-3; Cubs have won the last 3 meetings.

The Cubs took the first 2 games of this series 4-1 and 5-2. They’ve only won 5 of their last 16 games overall, but they’ve had the Mets’ number as of late. The offense hasn’t scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 7 games, and on the year, the Cubs rank 23rd in runs scored (577).

The Mets had won 4 of their last 5 games before dropping the first 2 games to Chicago. The offense was red hot in their previous 5 games, scoring at least 9 runs 3 times in that span. The Mets have scored nearly 100 more runs (669) than the Cubs this season.

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Cubs at Mets projected starters

LHP Drew Smyly vs. LHP David Peterson

Smyly (6-8, 3.75 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 98 1/3 IP.

Was dominant in his last start, with 7 shutout IP and allowing just 1 H against the San Francisco Giants with 8 Ks
The Cubs are 4-2 in his last 6 starts, a stretch during which he’s allowed more than 2 runs only once

Peterson (7-4, 3.47 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 98 2/3 IP.

Struck out 7 batters in 3 2/3 innings during his last start, but allowed 3 R and took the loss Friday against the Miami Marlins
Has only gone more than 6 innings once this season, and that was back in June against the Marlins

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:09 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cubs +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Mets -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Cubs 2

Money line

The Cubs have had the Mets’ number in their recent meetings, winning 3 straight. I think the Mets end that skid and get back on track after dropping 2 games in a row, but I’m not willing to lay the -205 line to take them straight-up.

PASS on the money line.

Run line/Against the spread

The Cubs might have a slight edge on the mound with Smyly coming off a fantastic start in his last outing, but Peterson hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in an appearance since June 15.

I like the METS -1.5 (+110) to cover the spread and win by a couple of runs in a low-scoring game.

Over/Under

The total has gone Under in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the Mets and Cubs, with no team scoring more than 5 runs in any of the last 5 games. This should be another low-scoring game between these teams, especially with 2 decent starters on the mound.

Bet the UNDER 7.5 (-107).

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (58-82) open a 3-game series with the New York Mets (89-52) Monday. First pitch from CitiField is set for 7:10. p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 3-1

The Cubs have lost 7 of their 9 games in September. Chicago’s latest loss was a 4-2 defeat at the San Francisco Giants Sunday, despite 2B Zach McKinstry being a home run short of the cycle.

The Mets remain one of the best teams in baseball, winning 4 of their last 5 outings. New York is 1 1/2 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.

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Cubs at Mets projected starters

RHP Javier Assad vs. RHP Chris Bassitt

Assad (0-1, 2.93 ERA) makes his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 15 1/3 IP.

Has yet to pitch more than 5 1/3 innings in a start
Last start: 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB and 6 K vs. Cincinnati Reds Wednesday

Bassitt (13-7, 3.24 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 161 1/3 IP.

Has gone 6 or more IP in 13 of his last 14 starts
Last 7 starts: 6-0, 46 1/3 IP, 44 H, 9 ER, 9 BB and 36 K

Cubs at Mets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:19 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cubs +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Mets -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (+110) | Mets -1.5 (-135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Cubs at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 7, Cubs 2

Money line

The Mets are heavily favored in this game, and for good reason, as they own the 3rd-best record in MLB. Despite New York’s high chances of winning on Monday, PASS on the money line due to the risks not being worth the reward with -300 odds.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-135) is a fantastic option in this game, especially with the lopsided pitching matchup. New York has won by multiple runs in each of its 6 wins since the start of September.

I believe New York can secure a multi-run lead early in this game, so METS -1.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (+102) is worth a sprinkle at plus odds.

Over/Under

Plenty of runs have been scored in games involving the Mets recently, with 8 or more runs being plated in 9 of the 10 contests they’ve played this month. OVER 7.5 RUNS (-130) is where I’m going in this game due to the Cubs having an inexperienced pitcher taking the mound.

The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 games overall for the Mets and is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.

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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at New York Mets and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (33-25) host the Chicago Cubs (38-28) for the second game of their four-game set Tuesday at Citi Field with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York won the first game of the series 5-2 Monday, snapping Chicago’s five-game winning streak and picking up their sixth win in the past eight games.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-1.

RHP Alec Mills gets the start for the Cubs. Mills is 2-0 with a 6.08 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 across 1 start and 12 bullpen appearances.

Last outing: 1 IP out of the bullpen of Chicago’s 7-1 victory last Tuesday at the San Diego Padres with 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
One of Mills’ two wins came earlier this season against the Mets where he tossed 3 IP out of the bullpen with 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 16-4 win.
vs. Mets on the current roster: 28 at-bats with a .250/.323/.321 slash line, 7/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

RHP Taijuan Walker makes his 12th start for the Mets. Walker is 5-2 with a 2.07 ERA (61 IP, 14 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Win, 14-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K at the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday.
Walker took a loss earlier this season at the Cubs with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 6 BB and 7 K as New York fell 3-1.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 58 at-bats with a .276/.382/.362 slash line, 13/8 K/BB, 1 HR and 7 RBIs.

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Cubs at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cubs +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Cubs 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+130) for a tiny wager because Mills was lights out in his earlier appearances vs. the Mets this season while Walker has mediocre advanced numbers against Chicago and there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market.

For instance, Mills’ expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and strikeout rate in 20 plate appearances by current Mets are much better than Walker’s in 64 plate appearances by current Cubs.

Also, Mills has a 0.76 FIP in those at-bats whereas Walker has a 4.27 FIP vs. the Cubs on the current roster.

Furthermore, a majority of the money wagered has been on the Mets (according to Pregame.com) but oddsmakers are making New York’s money line cheaper.

It’s typically a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the CUBS +0.5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because of the previous analysis combined with a half-run worth of insurance at a reasonable price.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my best bet in Cubs-Mets. Walker has been far more effective in New York than on the road and both bullpens are top-4 units in WAR.

Moreover, Citi Field has the second-fewest runs rate of any ballpark in the MLB and the weather forecast is predicting 10-plus mph winds blowing in from centerfield.

Lastly, the Mets have played to the second-highest rate of Unders in the majors at home (6-16-1 O/U in Citi Field) and the Cubs are just 13-17-2 O/U this season in road games.

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