Tag: Chargers predictions

After a hamstring injury sidelined him for six games in 2020, Chargers running back Austin Ekeler rebounded in a big way with a productive season that saw him set several personal bests.

Ekeler became a worthy Robin to Justin Herbert’s Batman. He led the backfield with 911 yards on the ground while punching in 12 scores, the latter of which was good enough for fifth among league rushers. He added 70 catches through the air, racking up 647 yards and eight more scores, which returned him to fantasy football glory. Most importantly, Ekeler remained healthy to play an entire 16-game slate, hit his career-best in rushing yards, and be crowned the league’s king for total touchdowns.

Even with the arrival of fourth-round pick Isaiah Spiller, Ekeler is the primary safety blanket for Herbert and a valuable weapon that will be asked to produce in various creative fashions. 

So what can Chargers fans expect Ekeler’s next season to look like?

Well, expect the rushing touchdowns to enjoy a bit of positive regression. With Spiller in the fold, Ekeler’s red-zone carries will likely decrease. If Spiller cuts into Ekeler’s early-down role, then it would certainly have an effect on the rushing numbers. With his longest rush going for 28 yards last season, Ekeler will need a fair amount of handoff volume to reach 1,000 yards on the ground.

But since Los Angeles added no notable receivers outside of retaining Mike Williams, Ekeler’s high-volume receiving duties are expected to be preserved. That means a lot of third-down work, where Ekeler will extend routes into the flat and test his quickness against linebackers that will look to eliminate him from the passing game. It’s a safe bet to assume offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will develop plenty of scripted motion and predetermined reads to get the ball in Ekeler’s hands and let him make a play.

Ekeler came seven yards short of a 1,000-yard receiving season two years ago. A Melvin Gordon holdout allowed him to gobble up the majority of backfield duties. According to Player Profiler, Ekeler caught 92 of his 108 targets and averaged 10.8 yards per catch (first in the league). He ran 265 routes on 44.4% of the team’s passing plays.

Let’s compare that to his latest campaign. Ekeler ran more routes (393) on more plays (61.6%) than in 2019. He was targeted the most out of any running back in the NFL, and he racked up most receiving yards, too. Although his receptions “dipped” to 70, that mark still ranked second among running backs. 

The sixth-year back is being deployed more, which is allowing the Chargers to break open defenses and spread the ball around. While Ekeler is being force-fed less than his 2019 breakout, his numbers in the passing game are still grand enough to rank in the upper echelon of dynamic running backs. It helps when Ekeler is astoundingly good at creating for himself – he created 940 yards after evading the first tackle attempt.

Ekeler’s rushing totals should decrease a bit when factoring in Spiller’s gradual emergence. In turn, this may lead to him running over 400 routes and seeing more opportunities as a receiver. He might not score 20 touchdowns again, but Ekeler’s ability to succeed in virtually any role will be a nagging headache for defenses to keep track of.

A rushing line of 200 carries, 850 yards, and eight touchdowns seems reasonable. As a receiver, seeing Ekeler hit the century mark is not a total fantasy, but he will likely fall in between that and his 2021 season. Tab him for around 80 catches, 750 yards, and seven touchdowns.