The Virginia Cavaliers (15-4 overall, 11-2 ACC) and Duke Blue Devils (9-8, 7-6) are slated to tee up an ACC contest Saturday night (8 p.m. ET) at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C. Below, we analyze the Virginia-Duke odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Virginia is No. 8 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Virginia at Duke: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Virginia -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Duke +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Virginia -2.5 (-110) | Duke +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 131.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Virginia at Duke: Three things to know
- UVA is coming off an abysmal Monday night loss at No. 16 Florida State. The 81-60 loss to the Seminoles marked the most-lopsided ACC defeat for Virginia in almost four years. The result snapped a four-game Cavalier winning streak.
- The Blue Devils won their second straight game, downing Wake Forest, 84-60, Wednesday. The two wins came on the heels of a three-game losing streak which included two setbacks at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke has struggled on defense this season (their efficiency at that end of the floor ranks among the worst in the ACC), but the Devils have allowed just 113 combined points in the back-to-back wins.
- Virginia’s three previous losses in 2020-21 have been followed by two ATS wins and a push. The combined ATS margin of victory in the wins was just 3-1/2 points, so the public has been dialed in on those follow-up games.
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Virginia at Duke: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Virginia 66, Duke 65
Money line (ML)
Duke (+120) is the likable side in this Saturday-nighter between two teams trending a bit in opposite directions. The 2-1/2-point spread offers a solid play on the Devils. A ML price closer to +130 would make for some leverage here.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Duke looked solid in two home games before its three-game collapse. A youthful Devil five has been coming together in many respects. DU is playing better defense along the perimeter, and that’s a big key against, which likes to bomb the three. And Duke has improved its distance game, something that can work against UVA at times. Over its last four games, Duke is 41-of-90 (45.6%) from beyond the arc.
The Blue Devils have also logged better numbers against slower teams; UVA’s pace figures peg them as one of the slowest teams in the nation. No game in their last six has seen the Wahoos register more than 62 possessions.
BACK THE BLUE DEVILS +2.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
Shading the Under is the lean. But a 133 total would be needed to create enough value. PASS.
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