In a 12-round WBC middleweight title fight, Carlos Adames faces Julian Williams Saturday at The Armory in Minneapolis. The main fight card is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (Showtime/Paramount+), with the main event scheduled for approximately 10:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Adames vs. Williams odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Adames has picked up 4 consecutive victories, including 3 KO/TKO wins, since a unanimous-decision setback to Patrick Teixeira back in November 2019. The lone fight to go the distance was a majority-decision win against Sergiy Derevyanchenko in Los Angeles in December 2021.
Adames has just a half-inch reach advantage over his counterpart, but he is also an inch taller, and 4 years younger. The Dominican fighter has recorded a 73.91% knockout rate in his 23 career professional bouts, and the hard puncher will likely be looking to get started quickly in this one.
Williams enters ranked 25th in the world, so he is fortunate to have a crack at the strap. He had a unanimous-decision win over Rolando Wenceslao Mansilla at this very same venue last time out in early November, but Adames represents a giant step up in competition.
In addition, prior to the win in his last fight, Williams lost by split-decision to Vladimir Hernandez, and he also suffered a disappointing 5th-round TKO loss to Jeison Rosario at Liacouras Center in Philadelphia in mid-January 2020.
Adames vs. Williams odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (3-way line): Adames -470 (bet $470 to win $100) | Williams +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Draw +1280 (bet $100 to win $1,280)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +235 | No -330)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Adames vs. Williams picks and predictions
Records: Adames (22-1-0, 17 KOs) | Williams (28-3-1, 16 KOs)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Adames (-470) is quite a bit expensive, costing nearly 5 times the potential return. That’s not a recommended play, even folding him into a multiple-end parlay.
I expect the heavy favorite will have the expected easy run to victory. The best play, albeit still on the expensive side, is playing ADAMES BY KO/TKO (-195) in the method of victory. As mentioned above, 73.91% of his fights have ended with a knockout victory, so it’s a very good chance to happen again.
Over/Under (O/U)
In addition, playing No (-330): Will the fight go the distance? is another foolish bet. It’s a good possibility we get a knockout, but you can’t risk 3.3 times the potential return.
Instead, let’s look to round block betting. In fact, I like ADAMES TO WIN IN ROUND 7-9 (+260) or ADAMES TO WIN IN ROUND 10-12 (+650). If you play this, you’ll obviously lose one end, but if Adames wins in Round 7-12, you will cash.
If you’re more conservative, simply go with ADAMES TO WIN IN ROUND 7-12 (+150) for a chance to multiply your initial bet by 1½ times.
Visit Boxing Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2676]