The presumed No. 1 pick makes for an interesting rookie fantasy QB.
Standout USC quarterback Caleb Williams is a human highlight reel as a game-altering play waiting to happen, and he brings his talents to the 2024 NFL Draft as the presumed first overall selection.
Williams committed to Oklahoma out of high school, where he played for a season before transferring to the Trojans. In 2021, he was a Freshman All-American and All-Big 12 Honorable Mention with just six Sooners starts to his name.
In two seasons as the full-time USC starter, Williams posted absurd numbers, especially in 2022 when he broke the school record for aerial scores as well as passing and total yards on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. Williams won just about every other notable accolade, including Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year. He garnered First-Team All-Pac-12, First-Team Associated Press All-American, Walter Camp Player of the Year, and Maxwell Award recognition.
In 2023, after losing receiver Jordan Addison to the NFL, Williams would appear in 12 games and take a step backward statistically. He ran less but scored one more touchdown, and the most notable regression came in passing touchdowns with 30 compared to 42 the year prior. Williams closed out his FBS career as an All-Pac-12 Honorable Mention.
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 214 pounds
40 time: 4.59 seconds (unofficial)
Table: QB Caleb Williams, USC (2021-23)
| Year |
Team |
Class |
Gm |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Run |
Yds |
TD |
| *2021 |
Okla. |
Fr |
11 |
136 |
211 |
64.5 |
1,912 |
10.2 |
21 |
4 |
79 |
442 |
6 |
| *2022 |
USC |
So |
14 |
333 |
500 |
66.6 |
4,537 |
10.3 |
42 |
5 |
113 |
382 |
10 |
| *2023 |
USC |
Jr |
12 |
266 |
388 |
68.6 |
3,633 |
10.3 |
30 |
5 |
97 |
142 |
11 |
| Totals |
37 |
735 |
1,099 |
66.9 |
10,082 |
10.3 |
93 |
14 |
289 |
966 |
27 |
*includes postseason/bowl games (stats from Sports Reference)
**player gained extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19 pandemic
Pros
- Freakish escapability and creativity and vision jump off the screen
- Quick, compact throwing motion
- Impeccable ball placement on the vast majority of his completions — has a true understanding of how to throw open a receiver in tight quarters
- Consistently makes heroic plays that break the back of a defense
- Elite athleticism and rushing prowess — massive chunk plays as well as the ability to house it even from distance
- Thick, sturdily built frame to absorb big hits
- Dangerous in the RPO game — aside from his ever-present rushing threat, he has full command of fake handoffs to sell the play
- Really can uncork a deep ball with a quick flick of the wrist
- Impressive red-zone production and rarely turns over the ball
- Can accurately throw from any platform or angle
- Delivers a very catchable ball
- Improved demonstration of timing and anticipation in 2023
- Accustomed to the spotlight of being a star prospect at a prominent program
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Cons
- Lacks prototypical height and played almost exclusively from shotgun as a result
- Too much freelancing — this is his best and worst trait and can get him into trouble
- Wasn’t asked to operate within many NFL-level concepts in the passing game — it’s a chore to find more than a few hi-low recognition reads on tape
- Sometimes feels ghost pressure and gets out of the pocket for no reason
- Reckless style of play will open him up to injuries
- Raw fundamental technique that may never greatly improve without hampering his most explosive attributes
- Timing and anticipation are erratic — some of this is due to his tendency to play hero-ball
- Lost five of last six games and threw multiple touchdowns in only two of those contests. To his credit, he was sharp as a razor in three 2022 losses
Fantasy football outlook
A freak of nature in many ways, it’s fairer to call Williams a “playmaker” over a “quarterback” in the truest sense of the latter. He’s overly reliant on athleticism — just won’t be something he gets away with quite as often in the pros. He will live and die by the proverbial sword, at least early on in his career, but it’s a real question if his recklessness can be curtailed to a balance that allows him to remain explosive but also play within a system.
Not every NFL coach will allow this to happen. Think back to the Mike Holmgren era with Brett Favre as a young quarterback. For every huge play No. 4 made, Holmgren aged 10 years by Favre living outside of the scope of the system’s game plan. It’s rare to find such a long runway of patience in today’s game.
Speaking of Favre, there’s visual correlation between Williams’ style and that of the Hall of Famer. The modern comparison is a blend of Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes — not bad company to keep.
After the Chicago Bears traded Justin Fields away, there’s no doubt where Williams will play in 2024 and the foreseeable future. The Bears stocked up on talent in the offseason, notably acquiring wide receiver Keenan Allen to pair with DJ Moore and signing running back D’Andre Swift. Veteran tight end Gerald Everett joined in free agency, too.
With the personnel upgrades, Williams enters a favorable scenario for fantasy utility. He’ll start from Day 1, and he has two proven NFL veteran receivers plus a promising young tight end in Cole Kmet. Swift offers an explosive runner to keep defenders honest as well as a viable pass-catching outlet.
New offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron calls the shots, so expect something similar to what we’ve seen from the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks the last few years. He was the OC for the latter from 2021-23 after learning the ropes under the Mike Shanahan-inspired West Coast offense of Sean McVay.
Williams has low-end QB1 upside with this offensive design having produced starting-quality quarterbacks of late, including the 2022 resurrection of Geno Smith. The rookie’s legs will bail him out while the rest of his game catches up, and bonus points for rushing success makes him a fine matchup gamble as your No. 2 passer.
