Bust quarterbacks – Syndication Server

Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks

2022 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

While there are many definitions of “sleeper”, what this analysis considers is that a sleeper is someone drafted as a backup that becomes a fantasy start. The first 12 quarterbacks taken are already starters, so the green shaded players are picks that offer the best value in that spot and could be considered earlier. Those in red are being drafted too high for their expected outlook.

Below is ordered in their average draft position from recent drafts of the last few weeks. This won’t be exactly like your draft, but it tends to be generally close enough to rely on.

This year, the Top-8 picks are almost always what you see below in ADP, and the position becomes more volatile when you pick your backup. It’s usually fine to wait on a quarterback in most fantasy leagues, but don’t wait on a backup quarterback.

Average Draft order – Value Picks

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
1	BUF	Josh Allen	No.1 for last two years, with a better schedule. Why not? But this will cost you a lot. Like a full round earlier or even two than all the others.
2	LAC	Justin Herbert	30+ TDs in both seasons, enters his third year with the same offensive weapons as 2021 when he was No. 3.
3	KC	Patrick Mahomes	Taking Mahomes as the third QB seems like a huge value. Sure, Tyreek Hill left but there are plenty of new receivers and no longer a certainty which one a defense needs to focus on.
4	CIN	Joe Burrow	Almost two years from the knee injury with a stocked set of wideouts. Available later than the Top-3 but this isn’t settling, it is more like stealing. Rock solid.
5	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Was No. 1 in 2019 and BAL wants to revert to that run-happy offense. But no better than No. 10 the last two years, has a much worse passing schedule when he does pass and never replaced Marquise Brown at all. Fingers crossed on his health if he runs even more.
6	ARI	Kyler Murray	Good spot for one of the best QBs since his rookie season. ARZ struggled with injuries last year but is healthy. No DeAndre Hopkins for six games hurts, but adding Marquise Brown softens that blow while helping the offense the entire season.
7	PHI	Jalen Hurts	The No. 10 QB from 2021 upgrades with A.J. Brown and the No.1 passing schedule strength. The table is set for a fantasy football feast.
8	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Finished 2021 with this No. 8 ranking and yet Davante Adams took his 123 catches to Vegas this year. Rodgers is a HOF’er and will compensate for the loss, but his schedule strength drops from No. 3 to only No. 18 this year.
9	LAR	Matthew Stafford	This is probably a steal and reflects his lack of rushing stats, but the move to LA already made Stafford the No. 5 QB last year. Tougher schedule and the Rams have a target on them as the reigning champs.
10	DAL	Dak Prescott	Hasn’t been worse than No. 6 when healthy and his ankle is on the second season since the injury. Loss of Amari Cooper not ideal, and Michael Gallup not yet back to form, but Prescott looks to run more and spread out the passing more.
11	DEN	Russell Wilson	In his glory days in Seattle, Wilson was a near-lock for a Top-5 ranking but moved to Denver. There are weapons already there and a new offense installed centered around him. If Wilson did better than this, would anyone be surprised?
12	TB	Tom Brady	The age-less wonder was the No. 2 QB last year. That meant each league had 11 guys saying “not taking the chance on a 44-year-old QB” and one guy just smiling. No Gronk, Chris Godwin still recovering from his torn ACL, and one year older. But he’s like tossing a coin and flipping heads every time.

Sleepers and Overvalued Players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
13	LVR	Derek Carr	Carr spent his career bouncing between the No. 12 and No. 18 fantasy QB, and now he has Devante Adams. Doesn’t run much, and the schedule takes a downturn, but worth being the first back-up taken from his upside.
14	SF	Trey Lance	He had just one year as a starter in college (though glorious for sure). 49ers let him simmer on the bench last year. Good O-line, great schedule, inventive offense and a dual threat. Makes a great backup that may end up as your starter. If any QB is positioned to be a surprise fantasy star, it is Lance.
15	MIN	Kirk Cousins	He hasn’t performed this low in years and was No. 9 last season. New offense intends to pass more, run less. He’s likely to end up eventually starting in many fantasy leagues… just like every year…
16	CLE	Deshaun Watson	Ethics and distractions aside – Watson was always Top-5 in HOU on a far worse team. Great O-line and all-new run support mean he doesn’t have to do it all. Misses the first six games, plays Ravens, Bengals and then takes a bye. In most leagues, only four or five more games until fantasy playoffs. He’ll no doubt be rising in ADP but hasn’t played since 2020 and CLE is all new.
17	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	Was only No. 26 last year while missing five games. Upgrade to Tyreek Hill is a difference-maker, but mediocre backfield offers little support. Makes for a solid “average” fantasy backup and carries all-new upside.
18	CHI	Justin Fields	Rookie year ended as the No. 31 QB while playing in just 12 games and produced rock-bottom passing stats. HC Matt Nagy is gone and sputtering offense gets a make-over but lost Allen Robinson with no replacement. Better fantasy backup options at this point.
19	HOU	Davis Mills	The 3.08 pick in 2021 that featured five first-rounders and landed in HOU where the Deshaun Watson dilemma was only starting. Bad season for the Texans again, but Mills tossed four 300-yard games and threw eight TDs over final four weeks. Will need to throw just as much for 2022.
20	IND	Matt Ryan	Colts buy a new aging QB every year and Ryan gets his turn. Super solid at this spot and far better schedule than he had in ATL. Plus – great O-line and run support but will not be asked to throw nearly as many passes and does not rush the ball himself.
21	ATL	Marcus Mariota	Bad O-line, very young receivers and Desmond Ridder standing on the sideline waiting for HC Arthur Smith to say, “That’s enough, send in the rookie.”
22	WAS	Carson Wentz	Wentz was only No. 14 at IND last year, and nothing suggests he’s fantasy starter worthy anymore. Gets a great schedule and decent receivers. But he’s likely just a bye week replacement.
23	JAC	Trevor Lawrence	Lawrence was the No. 22 QB in 2021 as a rookie, playing in a highly dysfunctional offense that lost most players to injury. He was also the 1.01 pick last year as the best college player. Worth granting him a mulligan on last year’s team-wide debacle. He’s another QB that could really surprise this year.
24	DET	Jared Goff	This is the least he should do – he was the No. 24 last year. But the Lions brought in Jameson Williams and DJ Chark. O-line is one of the best. Schedule is much better. Could be a streaming choice.

Best of the Rest

Mac Jones (NE) – It is a surprise to see Jones not make the Top-24 when his rookie season was better than the four quarterbacks that were selected before him. And Jones was the No. 18 fantasy quarterback. He may not be a fantasy starter quite yet, but he’s also likely to be better than the No. 18 he was last year as a rookie.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Losing A.J. Brown meant the fantasy world writing off Tannehill who was No. 13 and No. 9 over the two previous seasons. He’s not likely to improve of course, but dropping out of even backup consideration is too harsh.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks

2021 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

A sleeper quarterback is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies a bad value or at least too high of a risk for that spot.

This year, the Top-8 picks are almost always what you see below in ADP, and the position is more volatile when you pick your backup. It’s usually fine to wait on a quarterback in most fantasy leagues, but don’t wait on a backup quarterback.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Analysis
1	KC	Pat Mahomes	It’s a coin flip between Mahomes and Allen with no wrong answer.
2	BUF	Josh Allen	Top QB last year and rushing ensures fantasy points every week.
3	ARI	Kyler Murray	Two years in and never worse than No. 7. His No. 2 last season could repeat and costs a full round or two after Allen and Mahomes.
4	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Rushing keeps him consistent and has new targets to help passing. Better schedule also a plus.
5	DAL	Dak Prescott	Prescott on fire in 2020 but then got hurt. Healthy now, but still a bit of risk losing some of his rushing fantasy points. If stays healthy, then this is a big value.
6	LAC	Justin Herbert	Turned in No. 8 stats as a rookie but most points were vs. NFC South that won’t repeat. No. 2 schedule in 2020 falls to No. 23 and Herbert looks a tad Sophomore slump-ish.
7	SEA	Russell Wilson	Tough schedule but some upgrades in receivers. Three of last four years were higher than this. Always solid.
8	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Sadly, the MVP of… wait. He’s back? Geez. Rodgers is always solid but he had the lightest schedule in 2020. This feels very right for a player that can turn in more than a few monster games.
9	TB	Tom Brady	I’d never draft a 44 Y.O. QB, but he was No. 7 last year. His inability to age would have gotten him stoned back in medieval times. I mean with actual rocks. Can’t argue against this, though. Making every other 44 Y.O. feel really bad about themselves.
10	LAR	Matthew Stafford	Had a thumb scare but is ok. The Rams offense is very similar to what he had in DET a few years back in terms of talent. He’s not going to run, but he was Top-10 until Matt Patricia took over HC for a few seasons..
11	PHI	Jalen Hurts	By this point, you waited and loaded up elsewhere and that is OK. Hurts is interesting in that he has the Heisman Trophy winner to catch passes, usually ran for 50 yards per game and has a lighter schedule. His rushing production lifts his fantasy value to this level.
12	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	This is slightly lower than what Tannehill did last year and he did get Julio Jones as an upgrade. The concern is most of his fantasy points were passing touchdowns thanks to every defense worried more about Henry running it in. Also has the No. 29 pass schedule. He’s a sleeper to some, but history doesn’t like QBs that pass for lots of touchdowns and not as many yards (3,819 yards vs. 33 touchdowns). If Henry ever gets hurt, then Tannehill takes on all new fantasy potential.

Sleepers and Overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
13	CIN	Joe Burrow	The knee injury is concerning. But Burrow is not much of a runner anyway, and half his rookie games were 300+ yards. Now he has his BFF Ja’Marr Chase and a better schedule. Solid pick as a fantasy backup long as the knee is no issue.
14	ATL	Matt Ryan	Ryan threw for 4,000+ yards in each of the last ten years. Been a lock for 25 touchdowns. He’s been fantasy starter worthy since 2009. Jones is gone, but he wasn’t around much last year. Far better schedule and still a very “iffy” rushing offense adds fuel to the fire.
15	JAX	Trevor Lawrence	Picking up fantasy backups, why not grab the No. 1 overall pick in the draft who was “born to QB.” There are offensive tools in Jacksonville and yet one of the worst defenses from 2020 is back to keep Lawrence needing to throw late in games.
16	HOU	Deshaun Watson	I get the lottery ticket notion. But man, just doesn’t look like this year is going to happen for him in the NFL. And the league hasn’t said much with all the many lawsuits and such. If you need risky thrill, just saddle up a rookie running back or wideout.
17	CLE	Baker Mayfield	Three years in NFL and never better than No. 16, or worse than No. 17. Here’s a salute to fantasy mediocrity. This is a perfect spot for him.
18	IND	Carson Wentz	The Colts have a great schedule and Wentz could restart his career. But injuring his foot and needing surgery, coupled with between 5 and 12 weeks recovery means no thanks.
19	MIN	Kirk Cousins	Maybe he hasn’t racked up the wins they wanted, but Cousins has made stars of his receivers and been Top-12 nearly every season, including 2020 (No. 11). You could do much worse for a fantasy backup.
20	SF	Trey Lance	Most of the remaining quarterbacks are just deep backups that hopefully never do more than cover a bye week. Lance is super raw with just one good year at college. And he opted out last year. But his one good season saw him throw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns, and run for 1,100 yards and 14 more scores. Running rookie quarterbacks facing the No. 4 passing schedule is always interesting. Could be a dangerous fit in that offense.
21	CHI	Justin Fields	He’s certainly worth a dart throw this late. He’ll likely be on the field sooner than later, but the Bears offense under Matt Nagy is always a concern. This late in a draft, no harm.
22	NE	Cam Newton	Only problem with Newton is will he be there when you need him to cover a bye week?
23	WAS	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Sure, he is on his 43rd NFL team. But he’s always been better than expected and certainly beats anything seen in Washington last year.
24	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	How the mighty have fallen. If his elbow doesn’t flare up again this year, then this is a steal but a bad O-line and below average schedule is not going to help.

Best of the Rest

Sam Darnold (CAR) – Maybe Darnold really is a bust, but maybe it was just playing on the Jets under Adam Gase. With D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey, Darnold gets to experience what an actual offense can look like.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – He posted two 300-yard games as a rookie and the weaponry has been upgraded for Miami. He’s worth a backup pick.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks Update

2020 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies a bad value or at least too high of a risk for that spot.

Average Draft order – Value plays

Sleepers and over-valued players

Best of the Rest

Philip Rivers (IND) – Sure, the Colts looked bad without Andrew Luck last year but Rivers was at least the No. 13 fantasy quarterback for years with the Chargers. He’s much closer to Luck than he is to Jacoby Brissett. And Colts have one of the easiest passing schedules too.

Derek Carr (OAK) – Carr spent his entire career around being the No. 18 fantasy quarterback and “he may finally have receivers” (Part II).

Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks

2020 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

Average Draft order – Value plays

Sleepers and over-valued players

Best of the Rest

Derek Carr (OAK) – Carr spent his entire career around being the No. 18 fantasy quarterback and “he may finally have receivers” (Part II).